RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: There is a growing concern for the transmission of arboviral infections by blood transfusion in Europe. However, no assessment of the risk of transmission through all European blood supplies has been reported. Risk regulations at a European level should take differences in local transmission risk and the risk of transmission by travelling donors into consideration. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A risk model and publicly available tool were developed to calculate the risk of transmission by all European blood supplies for arboviral outbreaks within Europe. Data on individual European blood supplies from Council of Europe reports and inter-European travel data from EUROSTAT were used to populate this model. RESULTS: Each neuroinvasive case of WNV reported in Europe will on average result in 0·43 (95%CI: 0·32-0·55) infected blood product by locally infected donors and 0·010 (95%CI: 0·006-0·015) infected products by travelling donors. On basis of the 1373 neuroinvasive human WNV cases reported in the outbreak of 2018, it is estimated that without safety interventions this outbreak would have resulted in 708 (95%CI: 523-922) infected components derived from resident donors. Noncompliance to European regulations, which requires donor deferral or testing of donors who visited WNV-infected areas, would have resulted in 7.4 (95%CI: 4·7-11·1) infected blood components derived from infectious travelling donors exposed in outbreak areas throughout Europe. CONCLUSION: The risk of WNV transmission by a local outbreak is on average 113 times (95%CI: 95-139), so two orders of magnitude higher than the risk of transmission by travelling donors in Europe.