Global Burden of Hypertension and Systolic Blood Pressure of at Least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015.

Importance: Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective: To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. Design: A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. Results: Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). For loss of DALYs associated with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 95.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 87.0-104.9 million) to 143.0 million (95% UI, 130.2-157.0 million) [corrected], and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. Conclusions and Relevance: In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.

Nutrition-specific and sensitive drivers of poor child nutrition in Kilte Awlaelo-Health and Demographic Surveillance Site, Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: implications for public health nutrition in resource-poor settings.

Background: Child undernutrition is a prevalent health problem and poses various short and long-term consequences. Objective: This study seeks to investigate the burden of child undernutrition and its drivers in Kilte Awlaelo-Health and Demographic Surveillance Site, Tigray, northern Ethiopia. Methods: In 2015, cross-sectional data were collected from 1,525 children aged 6-23 months. Maternal and child nutritional status was assessed using the mid upper arm circumference. Child's dietary diversity score was calculated using 24-hours dietary recall method. Log-binomial regression and partial proportional odds model were fitted to examine the drivers of poor child nutrition and child dietary diversity (CDD), respectively. Results: The burden of undernutrition and inadequate CDD was 13.7% (95% CI: 12.1-15.5%) and 81.3% (95%CI: 79.2-83.1%), respectively. Maternal undernutrition (adjusted prevalence ratio, adjPR = 1.47; 95%CI: 1.14-1.89), low CDD (adjPR = 1.90; 95%CI: 1.22-2.97), and morbidity (adjPR = 1.83; 95%CI: 1.15-2.92) were the nutrition-specific drivers of child undernutrition. The nutrition-sensitive drivers were poverty (compared to the poorest, adjPR poor = 0.65 [95%CI:0.45-0.93], adjPR medium = 0.64 [95%CI: 0.44-0.93], adjPR wealthy = 0.46 [95%CI: 0.30-0.70], and adjPR wealthiest = 0.53 [95%CI: 0.34-0.82]), larger family size (adjPR = 1.10; 95%CI: 1.02-1.18), household head's employment insecurity (adjPR = 2.10; 95%CI: 1.43-3.09), and residing in highlands (adjPR = 1.93; 95%CI: 1.36-2.75). The data show that higher CDD was positively associated with wealth (OR wealthy = 3.06 [95%CI: 1.88-4.99], OR wealthiest = 2.57 [95%CI: 1.53-4.31]), but it was inversely associated with lack of diverse food crops production in highlands (OR = 0.23; 95%CI: 0.10-0.57]). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the burden of poor child nutrition is very high in the study area. Multi-sectoral collaboration and cross-disciplinary interventions between agriculture, nutrition and health sectors are recommended to address child undernutrition in resource poor and food insecure rural communities of similar settings.

Injury-related gaining momentum as external causes of deaths in Ethiopian health and demographic surveillance sites: evidence from verbal autopsy study.

BACKGROUND: In Ethiopia, though all kinds of mortality due to external causes are an important component of overall mortality often not counted or documented on an individual basis. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe the patterns of mortality from external causes using verbal autopsy (VA) method at the Ethiopian HDSS Network sites. METHODS: All deaths at Ethiopian HDSS sites were routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. The VA forms comprised deaths up to 28 days, between four weeks and 14 years and 15 years and above. The cause of a death was ascertained based on an interview with next of families or other caregivers using a standardized questionnaire that draws information on signs, symptoms, medical history and circumstances preceding death after 45 days mourning period. Two physician assigned probable causes of death as underlying, immediate and contributing factors independently using information in VA forms based on the WHO ICD-10 and VA code system. Disagreed cases sent to third physician for independent review and diagnosis. The final cause of death considered when two of the three physicians assigned underlying cause of death; otherwise, labeled as undetermined. RESULTS: In the period from 2009 to 2013, a total of 9719 deaths were registered. Of the total deaths, 623 (6.4%) were from external causes. Of these, accidental drowning and submersion, 136 (21.8%), accidental fall, 113 (18.1%) and transport-related accidents, 112 (18.0%) were the topmost three leading external causes of deaths. About 436 (70.0%) of deaths were from the age group above 15 years old. Drowning and submersion and transport-related accidents were high in age group between 5 and 14 years old. CONCLUSION: In this study, external causes of death are significant public health problems and require attention as one of prior health agenda.

Social determinants of adult mortality from non-communicable diseases in northern Ethiopia, 2009-2015: Evidence from health and demographic surveillance site.

INTRODUCTION: In developing countries, mortality and disability from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is rising considerably. The effect of social determinants of NCDs-attributed mortality, from the context of developing countries, is poorly understood. This study examines the burden and socio-economic determinants of adult mortality attributed to NCDs in eastern Tigray, Ethiopia. METHODS: We followed 45,982 adults implementing a community based dynamic cohort design recording mortality events from September 2009 to April 2015. A physician review based Verbal autopsy was used to identify the most probable causes of death. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to identify social determinants of NCD mortality. RESULTS: Across the 193,758.7 person-years, we recorded 1,091 adult deaths. Compared to communicable diseases, NCDs accounted for a slightly higher proportion of adult deaths; 33% vs 34.5% respectively. The incidence density rate (IDR) of NCD attributed mortality was 194.1 deaths (IDR = 194.1; 95% CI = 175.4, 214.7) per 100,000 person-years. One hundred fifty-seven (41.8%), 68 (18.1%) and 34 (9%) of the 376 NCD deaths were due to cardiovascular disease, cancer and renal failure, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, age per 5-year increase (HR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.30, 1.41), and extended family and non-family household members (HR = 2.86; 95% CI: 2.05, 3.98) compared to household heads were associated with a significantly increased hazard of NCD mortality. Although the difference was not statistically significant, compared to poor adults, those who were wealthy had a 15% (HR = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.65, 1.11) lower hazard of mortality from NCDs. On the other hand, literate adults (HR = 0.35; 95% CI: 0.13, 0.9) had a significantly decreased hazard of NCD attributed mortality compared to those adults who were unable to read and write. The effect of literacy was modified by age and its effect reduced by 18% for every 5-year increase of age among literate adults. CONCLUSION: In summary, the study indicates that double mortality burden from both NCDs and communicable diseases was evident in northern rural Ethiopia. Public health intervention measures that prioritise disadvantaged NCD patients such as those who are unable to read and write, the elders, the extended family and non-family household co-residents could significantly reduce NCD mortality among the adult population.