Ambient pollen exposure and pollen allergy symptom severity in the EPOCHAL study.

BACKGROUND: Ambient pollen exposure causes nasal, ocular, and pulmonary symptoms in allergic individuals, but the shape of the exposure-response association is not well characterized. We evaluated this association and determined (1) whether symptom severity differs between subpopulations; (2) how the association changes over the course of the pollen season; and (3) which pollen exposure time lags affect symptoms. METHODS: Adult study participants (n = 396) repeatedly scored severity of nasal, ocular, and pulmonary allergic symptoms, resulting in three composite symptom scores. We calculated hourly individually relevant pollen exposure to seven allergenic plants (alder, ash, birch, hazel, grasses, mugwort, and ragweed) considering personal sensitization and exposure time lags of up to 96 h. We fitted generalized additive mixed models, with a random personal intercept, adjusting for weather and air pollution as potential time-varying confounders. RESULTS: We identified a clear nonlinear positive association between pollen exposure and ocular and nasal symptom severity in the pollen allergy group: Symptom severity increased steeply with increasing exposure initially, but attenuated beyond approximately 80 pollen/m3. We found no evidence of an exposure threshold, below which no symptoms occur. While recent pollen exposure in the last approximately 5 h affected symptoms most, associations lingered for up to 60 h. Grass pollen exposure (compared to tree pollen) and younger age (18-30 years, as opposed to 30-65 years) were both associated with higher nasal and ocular symptom severity. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of a threshold and attenuated dose-response curve may have implications for pollen warning systems, which may be revised to include multiday pollen concentrations in the future.

Forecasting daily total pollen concentrations on a global scale.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that global anthropogenic climate change may be impacting floral phenology and the temporal and spatial characteristics of aero-allergenic pollen. Given the extent of current and future climate uncertainty, there is a need to strengthen predictive pollen forecasts. METHODS: The study aims to use CatBoost (CB) and deep learning (DL) models for predicting the daily total pollen concentration up to 14 days in advance for 23 cities, covering all five continents. The model includes the projected environmental parameters, recent concentrations (1, 2 and 4 weeks), and the past environmental explanatory variables, and their future values. RESULTS: The best pollen forecasts include Mexico City (R2(DL_7) ≈ .7), and Santiago (R2(DL_7) ≈ .8) for the 7th forecast day, respectively; while the weakest pollen forecasts are made for Brisbane (R2(DL_7) ≈ .4) and Seoul (R2(DL_7) ≈ .1) for the 7th forecast day. The global order of the five most important environmental variables in determining the daily total pollen concentrations is, in decreasing order: the past daily total pollen concentration, future 2 m temperature, past 2 m temperature, past soil temperature in 28-100 cm depth, and past soil temperature in 0-7 cm depth. City-related clusters of the most similar distribution of feature importance values of the environmental variables only slightly change on consecutive forecast days for Caxias do Sul, Cape Town, Brisbane, and Mexico City, while they often change for Sydney, Santiago, and Busan. CONCLUSIONS: This new knowledge of the ecological relationships of the most remarkable variables importance for pollen forecast models according to clusters, cities and forecast days is important for developing and improving the accuracy of airborne pollen forecasts.

Association between short-term pollen exposure and blood pressure in adults: A repeated-measures study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have related high pollen concentrations to increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, yet very little research concerns pre-clinical cardiovascular health, including effects on blood pressure (BP). The EPOCHAL panel study investigated the exposure-response relationship between ambient pollen exposure and systolic and diastolic BP in adults. METHODS: BP was measured in 302 adults with and in 94 without pollen allergy during the pollen season, on approximately 16 days per person (6253 observations). Average individually-relevant pollen exposure in the 96 h prior to each BP measurement was calculated by summing up the averages of all ambient pollen concentrations to which the individual was found to be sensitized in a skin prick test, and which originated from seven highly allergenic pollen types (hazel, alder, birch, ash, grasses, mugwort and ragweed). Generalized additive mixed models were used to study the association between mean individually-relevant pollen exposure in the last 96 h and BP, adjusting for individual and environmental time-varying covariates. Effect modification by pollen allergy status, sex and BMI was evaluated. RESULTS: Positive non-linear associations between individually-relevant pollen exposure and both systolic and diastolic BP were found in the allergic but not in the non-allergic group. BP increased sharply for exposures from zero to 60/80 pollen/m3 (diastolic/systolic BP), followed by a tempered further increase at higher concentrations. Increases of 2.00 mmHg [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.80-3.19] in systolic and 1.51 mmHg [95% CI: 0.58-2.45] in diastolic BP were associated with 96-h average pollen exposure of 400 pollen/m3, compared to no exposure. Obesity and female sex were associated with larger BP increases. CONCLUSIONS: The finding that short-term pollen concentration is associated with increased systolic and diastolic BP in persons with pollen allergy strengthens the evidence that pollen may cause systemic health effects and trigger cardiovascular events.