Estimating regional and national cancer incidence in Uganda: a retrospective population-based study, 2013-2017.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is becoming a major health problem in Uganda. Cancer control requires accurate estimates of the cancer burden for planning and monitoring of the cancer control strategies. However, cancer estimates and trends for Uganda are mainly based on one population-based cancer registry (PBCR), located in Kampala, the capital city, due to a lack of PBCRs in other regions. This study aimed at estimating cancer incidence among the geographical regions and providing national estimates of cancer incidence in Uganda. METHODS: A retrospective study, using a catchment population approach, was conducted from June 2019 to February 2020. The study registered all newly diagnosed cancer cases, in the period of 2013 to 2017, among three geographical regions: Central, Western and Eastern regions. Utilizing regions as strata, stratified random sampling was used to select the study populations. Cases were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-0-03). Data was analysed using CanReg5 and Microsoft Excel. RESULTS: 11598 cases (5157 males and 6441 females) were recorded. The overall national age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) were 82.9 and 87.4 per 100,000 people in males and females respectively. The regional ASIRs were: 125.4 per 100,000 in males and 134.6 per 100,000 in females in central region; 58.2 per 100,000 in males and 56.5 per 100,000 in females in Western region; and 46.5 per 100,000 in males and 53.7 per 100,000 in females in Eastern region. Overall, the most common cancers in males over the study period were cancers of the prostate, oesophagus, Kaposi's sarcoma, stomach and liver. In females, the most frequent cancers were: cervix, breast, oesophagus, Kaposi's sarcoma and stomach. CONCLUSION: The overall cancer incidence rates from this study are different from the documented national estimates for Uganda. This emphasises the need to enhance the current methodologies for describing the country's cancer burden. Studies like this one are critical in enhancing the cancer surveillance system by estimating regional and national cancer incidence and allowing for the planning and monitoring of evidence-based cancer control strategies at all levels.

Prevalence, trends and distribution of lifestyle cancer risk factors in Uganda: a 20-year systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is becoming an important public health problem in Uganda. Cancer control requires surveillance of lifestyle risk factors to inform targeted interventions. However, only one national Non-Communicable Disease (NCD) risk factor survey has been conducted in Uganda. This review assessed the prevalence, trends and distribution of lifestyle risk factors in Uganda. METHODS: The review identified studies up to January 2019 by searching Medline, Embase, CINAL and Cochrane databases. Further literature was identified from relevant websites and journals; scanning reference lists of relevant articles; and citation searching using Google Scholar. To be eligible, studies had to have been conducted in Uganda, and report prevalence estimates for at least one lifestyle cancer risk factor. Narrative and systematic synthesis was used to analyse the data. RESULTS: Twenty-four studies were included in the review. Overall, unhealthy diet (88%) was the most prevalent lifestyle risk factor for both males and females. This was followed by harmful use of alcohol (range of 14.3% to 26%) for men, and being overweight (range of 9% to 24%) for women. Tobacco use (range of 0.8% to 10.1%) and physical inactivity (range of 3.7% to 4.9%) were shown to be relatively less prevalent in Uganda. Tobacco use and harmful use of alcohol were more common in males and more prevalent in Northern region, while being overweight (BMI > 25 kg/m2) and physical inactivity were more common in females and more prevalent in Central region. Tobacco use was more prevalent among the rural populations compared to urban, while physical inactivity and being overweight were more common in urban than in rural settings. Tobacco use has decreased overtime, while being overweight increased in all regions and for both sexes. CONCLUSION: There is limited data about lifestyle risk factors in Uganda. Apart from tobacco use, other lifestyle risk factors seem to be increasing and there is variation in the prevalence of lifestyle risk factors among the different populations in Uganda. Prevention of lifestyle cancer risk factors requires targeted interventions and a multi-sectoral approach. Most importantly, improving the availability, measurement and comparability of cancer risk factor data should be a top priority for future research in Uganda and other low-resource settings.

Estimating cancer incidence in Uganda: a feasibility study for periodic cancer surveillance research in resource limited settings.

BACKGROUND: Population based cancer registries (PBCRs) are accepted as the gold standard for estimating cancer incidence in any population. However, only 15% of the world's population is covered by high quality cancer registries with coverage as low as 1.9% in settings such as Africa. This study was conducted to assess the operational feasibility of estimating cancer incidence using a retrospective "catchment population" approach in Uganda. METHODS: A retrospective population study was conducted in 2018 to identify all newly diagnosed cancer cases between 2013 and 2017 in Mbarara district. Data were extracted from the medical records of health facilities within Mbarara and from national and regional centres that provide cancer care services. Cases were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-0-03). Data was analysed using CanReg5 and Excel. RESULTS: We sought to collect data from 30 health facilities serving Mbarara district, southwestern Uganda. Twenty-eight sources (93%) provided approval within the set period of two months. Among the twenty-eight sources, two were excluded, as they did not record addresses for cancer cases, leaving 26 sources (87%) valid for data collection. While 13% of the sources charged a fee, ranging from $30 to $100, administrative clearance and approval was at no cost in most (87%) data sources. This study registered 1,258 new cancer cases in Mbarara district. Of the registered cases, 65.4% had a morphologically verified diagnosis indicating relatively good quality of data. The Age-Standardised Incidence Rates for all cancers combined were 109.9 and 91.9 per 100,000 in males and females, respectively. In males, the most commonly diagnosed cancers were prostate, oesophagus, stomach, Kaposi's sarcoma and liver. In females, the most common malignancies were cervix uteri, breast, stomach, liver and ovary. Approximately, 1 in 8 males and 1 in 10 females would develop cancer in Mbarara before the age of 75 years. CONCLUSION: Estimating cancer incidence using a retrospective cohort design and a "catchment population approach" is feasible in Uganda. Periodic studies using this approach are potentially a precious resource for producing quality cancer data in settings where PBCRs are scarce. This could supplement PBCR data to provide a detailed and comprehensive picture of the cancer burden over time, facilitating the direction of cancer control efforts in resource-limited countries.

Systematic review of associations between HLA and renal function.

INTRODUCTION: Kidney dysfunction is a highly significant disease, both in the United Kingdom and globally. Many previous studies have reported associations between human leukocyte antigens (HLA) and renal function; this systematic review attempts to identify, summarize and appraise all published studies of these associations. METHODS: A literature search was performed using Medline, Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials to identify papers whose keywords included each of the following concepts: HLA, renal failure and genetic association. A total of 245 papers were identified and assessed for eligibility; 35 of these were included in the final study. RESULTS: A total of 95 HLA types and 14 three-locus haplotypes were reported to be associated with either increased or decreased renal function. A number of these findings were replicated by independent studies that reported 16 types were protective against renal dysfunction and 15 types were associated with reduced renal function. A total of 20 HLA types were associated with both increased risk of renal disease and decreased risk by independent studies. DISCUSSION: There is very little consensus on which HLA types have a protective or deleterious effect on renal function. Ethnicity may play a role, with HLA types possibly having different effects among different populations, and it is possible that the different primary diseases that lead to ESRD may have different HLA associations. Some of the studies may contain type I and type II errors caused by insufficient sample sizes, cohort selection and statistical methods. Although we have compiled a comprehensive list of published associations between renal function and HLA, in many cases, it is unclear which associations are reliable. Further studies are required to confirm or refute these findings.

The use of locally based aggregate measures in urban health policy making in European urban areas.

Background: National and international policy makers require data at the local level to inform evidence-based policy making and evaluate the impact of policies; however, much data are only published at national level. Data collected at local level could be used to create aggregate measures to help inform health policy. Interviews were conducted with representatives of governmental public health agencies in eight European countries to assess the availability of local data and the extent to which local data was used to help decision making in nine urban areas (UAs). Respondents commented on the barriers to the use of aggregate measures at the local level for health policy decision making. In many of the cities data were available at UA level and in some cases at sub-urban level, however, aggregate measures using local data were rarely used to help inform decision making. The main reasons for this were; poor data quality, a lack of experience in the use of aggregate measures and communication barriers between policy makers and data analysts. A 'top down' approach to decision making also limited the use of local data in the decision making process. Health data are available at urban level within European cities but aggregate measures using these data are rarely used to inform health policy decision making at the local level. Improved communication between local public health data analysts could help increase the use of these data.

Developing a European urban health indicator system: results of EURO-URHIS 1.

Introduction: More than half of the world's population now live in cities, including over 70% in Europe. Cities bring opportunities but can be unhealthy places to live. The poorest urban dwellers live in the worst environments and are at the greatest risk of poor health outcomes. EURO-URHIS 1 set out to compile a cross-EU inventory of member states use of measures of urban health in order to support policymakers and improve public health policy. Following a literature review to define terms and find an appropriate model to guide urban health research, EURO-URHIS Urban Areas in all EU member states except Luxembourg, as well as Croatia, Turkey, Macedonia, Iceland and Norway, were defined and selected in collaboration with project partners. Following piloting of the survey tool, a the EURO-URHIS 45 data collection tool was sent out to contacts in all countries with identified EUA's, asking for data on 45 Urban Health Indicators (UHI) and 10 other indicators. 60 questionnaires were received from 30 countries, giving information on local health indicator availability, definitions and sources. Telephone interviews were also conducted with 14 respondents about their knowledge of sources of urban health data and barriers or problems experienced when collecting the data. Most participants had little problem identifying the sources of data, though some found that data was not always routinely recorded and was held by diverse sources or not at local level. Some participants found the data collection instrument to not be user-friendly and with UHI definitions that were sometimes unclear. However, the work has demonstrated that urban health and its measurement is of major relevance and importance for Public Health across Europe. The current study has constructed an initial system of European UHIs to meet the objectives of the project, but has also clearly demonstrated that further development work is required. The importance and value of examining UHIs has been confirmed, and the scene has been set for further studies on this topic.

Population Impact Analysis: a framework for assessing the population impact of a risk or intervention.

BACKGROUND: To describe an organizing framework, Population Impact Analysis, for applying the findings of systematic reviews of public health literature to estimating the impact on a local population, with the aim of implementing evidence-based decision-making. METHODS: A framework using population impact measures to demonstrate how resource allocation decisions may be influenced by using evidence-based medicine and local data. An example of influenza vaccination in the over 65s in Trafford to reduce hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is used. RESULTS: The number of COPD admissions due to non-vaccination of the over 65 in Trafford was 16.4 (95% confidence interval: 13.5; 19.5) and if vaccination rates were taken up to 90%, 11.5 (95% confidence interval: 9.3; 13.8) admissions could have been prevented. A total of 705 (95% confidence interval: 611; 861) people would have to be vaccinated against influenza to prevent one hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: Population Impact Analysis can help the 'implementation' aspect of evidence for population health. It has been developed to support public health policy makers at both local and national/international levels in their role of commissioning services.

Standardizing pneumoperitoneum for laparoscopic entry. Time, volume, or pressure: which is best?

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To establish whether time, pressure, or volume is the most reliable indicator of adequate pneumoperitoneum and, hence, the best parameter to use for safe trocar entry. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (Canadian Task Force classification II-2). SETTING: Department of Endogynecology, Royal Hospital for Women, Sydney, Australia. PATIENTS: One hundred thirty-three consecutive patients having gynecologic laparoscopy were recruited for the study. Of these, 100 patients were included in the analysis, and 33 were excluded. INTERVENTION: Laparoscopic surgery. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: After umbilical Veress needle entry, pressure and volume were recorded every 20 seconds until insufflation pressure of 20 mm Hg was reached. Following trocar entry, the gas was then expelled with the patient lying flat. The depth of pneumoperitoneum was measured at intra-abdominal pressure of 5, 10, 15, and 20 mm Hg. Random effects models were used to predict the depth of pneumoperitoneum based on pressure, time, and volume. A comparison was made of the standard deviation of pneumoperitoneum distance produced at pressure of 20 mm Hg (8.56 ± 0.59) compared with that produced by a volume of 3 L (4.96 ± 1.13). Compared with volume, pressure was significantly more reliable in estimating depth of pneumoperitoneum (p < .001) because it exhibited the least variance. Further comparison was made of the standard deviation of pneumoperitoneum distance produced at pressure of 20 mm Hg (8.56 ± 0.59) compared with that produced at 3 minutes (7.82 ± 1.19). Compared with time, pressure was significantly more reliable in depth of pneumoperitoneum (p < .001) because it exhibited the least variance. These results demonstrate that, compared with volume and time, pressure is the most reliable predictor of pneumoperitoneum depth because it exhibits the least variance (p < .001). CONCLUSION: Pressure is the most reliable predictor of pneumoperitoneum before trocar entry in laparoscopic surgery.

Evaluating UK Pharmacy Workers' Knowledge, Attitudes and Behaviour towards Antimicrobial Stewardship and Assessing the Impact of Training in Community Pharmacy.

The Antibiotic Guardian (AG) campaign, developed in 2014 is an online 'pledge' approach to engage health workers and the public about antimicrobial resistance. It is underpinned by models of science communication and behaviour change. Since its launch until the end of 2021, more than 140,000 individuals pledged. A service evaluation was conducted to determine the impact of the campaign upon UK pharmacy workers, in response to national training introduced in 2020. Pledged pharmacy workers were sent an online questionnaire collating demographics, self-reported behaviour and opportunity to support prudent antibiotic use. It also investigated respondents' daily practice and antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) efforts, and motivations for pledging. Capability was measured with a set of knowledge questions. Awareness of changes to the Community Pharmacy Quality Scheme in England to include incentivized training on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) was explored. Of the 5344 pharmacy workers invited to participate, 783 (14.6%) responded to the survey. There was a statistically significant difference between job roles and capability score. Pharmacists, including Academic and Hospital Pharmacists and Pharmacy Technicians reported higher confidence and capability scores than Dispensers and Pharmacy Assistants (F = 13.776, p = 0.0002). Respondents reported strong knowledge on antimicrobial resistance and high confidence in fulfilling their AG stewardship pledge within daily practices (92.7% of all respondents answered all capability questions, as measured by knowledge, correctly). Two thirds of respondents (61.6% (423/693)) agreed or strongly agreed that they had access to and were able to utilise local antibiotic prescribing guidance and a similar proportion of responding community pharmacists (60%) were aware of the content of their workplace AMS plans. No statistically significant relationships were found between motivations for pledging and subsequent behaviour; pledging due to mandatory requirements of work-place training was the most common answer in both 2019 (42%) and 2020 (54%) cohorts. This evaluation supports the value of the AG pledge-based approach to engage and educate pharmacy workers. Reflections show its impact on increasing evidence-based stewardship for pharmacy workers and their response to mandatory training requirement by employers highlights the effectiveness of the AG campaign to promote AMS within pharmacy teams.

Psychosocial risk factors for hospital readmission in COPD patients on early discharge services: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Hospital readmission for acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) occurs in up to 30% of patients, leading to excess morbidity and poor survival. Physiological risk factors predict readmission, but the impact of modifiable psychosocial risk factors remains uncertain. We aimed to evaluate whether psychosocial risk factors independently predict readmission for AECOPD in patients referred to early discharge services (EDS). METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 79 patients with AECOPD cared for by nurse led EDS in the UK, and followed up for 12 months. Data on lung function, medical comorbidities, previous hospital admissions, medications, and sociodemographics were collected at baseline; St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and social support were measured at baseline, 3 and 12-months. Exploratory multivariate models were fitted to identify psychosocial factors associated with readmission adjusted for known confounders. RESULTS: 26 patients were readmitted within 90 days and 60 patients were readmitted at least once during follow-up. Depression at baseline predicted readmission adjusted for sociodemographics and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (odds ratio 1.30, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.60, p = 0.013). Perceived social support was not significantly associated with risk of readmission. Home ownership was associated with the total number of readmissions (B = 0.46, 95% CI -0.86 to -0.06, p = 0.024). Compared with those not readmitted, readmitted patients had worse SGRQ and HADS scores at 12 months. CONCLUSION: Depressive symptoms and socioeconomic status, but not perceived social support, predict risk of readmission and readmission frequency for AECOPD in patients cared for by nurse-led EDS. Future work on reducing demand for unscheduled hospital admissions could include the design and evaluation of interventions aimed at optimising the psychosocial care of AECOPD patients managed at home.

Associations between human leukocyte antigens and renal function.

Human leukocyte antigens (HLA) have been associated with renal function, but previous studies report contradictory findings with little consensus on the exact nature or impact of this observation. This study included 401,307 white British subjects aged 39-73 when they were recruited by UK Biobank. Subjects' HLA types were imputed using HLA*IMP:02 software. Regression analysis was used to compare 362 imputed HLA types with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as a primary outcome and clinical indications as secondary outcome measures. 22 imputed HLA types were associated with increased eGFR (and therefore increased renal function). Decreased eGFR (decreased renal function) was associated with 11 imputed HLA types, seven of which were also associated with increased risk of end-stage renal disease and/or chronic kidney disease. Many of these HLA types are commonly inherited together in established haplotypes, for example: HLA-A*01:01, B*08:01, C*07:01, DRB1*03:01, DQB1*02:01. This haplotype has a population frequency of 9.5% in England and each allele was associated with decreased renal function. 33 imputed HLA types were associated with kidney function in white British subjects. Linkage disequilibrium in HLA heritance suggests that this is not random and particularly affects carriers of established haplotypes. This could have important applications for the diagnosis and treatment of renal disease and global population health.

Human leukocyte antigen associations with renal function among ethnic minorities in the United Kingdom.

Human leukocyte antigens (HLA) have been associated with renal function, but previous studies report contradictory findings. There has been a lack of research into how HLA affects renal function in Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) people in the UK, despite BAME people being disproportionately affected by renal dysfunction. This study included >27 000 UK Biobank subjects of six ethnicities (>12 100 Irish, >5400 Indian, >4000 Black Caribbean, >3000 Black African, >1600 Pakistani, and >1400 Chinese) aged 39 to 73. Subjects' high-resolution HLA genotypes were imputed using HLA*IMP:02 software. Regression analysis was used to compare 108 imputed HLA alleles with two measures of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR): one based on serum creatinine; one based on serum cystatin. Secondary analysis compared CKD stage 2 subjects to healthy controls. Nine imputed HLA alleles were associated with eGFR (adjusted P < .05). Six associations were based on creatinine in Black African subjects: HLA-B*53:01 (beta = -2.628, adjusted P = 4.69 × 10-4 ); C*04:01 (beta = -1.667, adjusted P = .0269); DPA1*02:01 (beta = -1.569, adjusted P = .0182); and DPA1*02:02 (beta = -1.716, adjusted P = .0251) were linked to decreased renal function, while DRB1*03:01 (beta = 3.200, adjusted P = 3.99 × 10-3 ) and DPA1*01:03 (beta = 2.276, adjusted P = 2.31 × 10-5 ) were linked to increased renal function. Two of these (HLA-B*53:01 and C*04:01) are commonly inherited together. In Irish subjects, HLA-DRB1*04:01 (beta = 1.075, adjusted P = .0138) was linked to increased eGFR (based on cystatin); in Indian subjects, HLA-DRB1*03:01 (beta = -1.72, adjusted P = 4.78 × 10-3 ) and DQB1*02:01 (beta = -1.755, adjusted P = 2.26 × 10-3 )were associated with decreased eGFR (based on cystatin). No associations were found in the other three ethnic groups. Nine HLA alleles appear to be associated with kidney function in BAME people in the UK. This could have applications for the diagnosis and treatment of renal disease and could help reduce health inequalities in the UK.

The effect of using different competence frameworks to audit the content of a masters program in public health.

OBJECTIVES: (1) To quantify the effect of using different public health competence frameworks to audit the curriculum of an online distance learning MPH program, and (2) to measure variation in the outcomes of the audit depending on which competence framework is used. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective audit. METHODS: We compared the teaching content of an online distance learning MPH program against each competence listed in different public health competence frameworks relevant to an MPH. We then compared the number of competences covered in each module in the program's teaching curriculum and in the program overall, for each of the competence frameworks used in this audit. RESULTS: A comprehensive search of the literature identified two competence frameworks specific to MPH programs and two for public health professional/specialty training. The number of individual competences in each framework were 32 for the taught aspects of the UK Faculty of Public Health Specialist Training Program, 117 for the American Association of Public Health, 282 for the exam curriculum of the UK Faculty of Public Health Part A exam, and 393 for the European Core Competencies for MPH Education. This gave a total of 824 competences included in the audit. Overall, the online MPH program covered 88-96% of the competences depending on the specific framework used. This fell when the audit focused on just the three mandatory modules in the program, and the variation between the different competence frameworks was much larger. CONCLUSION: Using different competence frameworks to audit the curriculum of an MPH program can give different indications of its quality, especially as it fails to capture teaching considered to be relevant, yet not included in an existing competence framework. The strengths and weaknesses of using competence frameworks to audit the content of an MPH program have largely been ignored. These debates are vital given that external organizations responsible for accreditation specify a particular competence framework to be used. Our study found that each of four different competence frameworks suggested different levels of quality in our teaching program, at least in terms of the competences included in the curriculum. Relying on just one established framework missed some aspects of the curriculum included in other frameworks used in this study. Conversely, each framework included items not covered by the others. Thus, levels of agreement with the content of our MPH and established areas of competence were, in part, dependent on the competence framework used to compare its' content. While not entirely a surprising finding, this study makes an important point and makes explicit the challenges of selecting an appropriate competence framework to inform MPH programs, and especially one which recruits students from around the world.

The impact of malaria in pregnancy on changes in blood pressure in children during their first year of life.

We established a maternal birth cohort in Ibadan, Nigeria, where malaria is hyperendemic, to assess how intrauterine exposure to malaria affected infant blood pressure (BP) development. In a local maternity hospital, healthy pregnant women had regular blood films for malaria parasites from booking to delivery. Growth and BP were measured on 318 babies, all followed from birth to 3 and 12 months. Main outcomes were standardized measures of anthropometry and change in BP to 1 year. Babies exposed to maternal malaria were globally smaller at birth, and boys remained smaller at 3 months and 1 year. Change in systolic BP (SBP) during the year was greater in boys than in girls (20.9 versus 15.7 mm Hg; P=0.002) but greater in girls exposed to maternal malaria (18.7 versus 12.7 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 1-11 mm Hg; P=0.02). Eleven percent of boys (greater than twice than expected) had a SBP ≥95th percentile (hypertensive, US criteria), of whom 68% had maternal malaria exposure. On regression analysis (ß coefficients, mm Hg), sex (boys>girls; ß=4.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-7.7; P=0.01), maternal malaria exposure (3.64; 0.3-6.9; P=0.03), and weight change (2.4; 0.98-3.8/1 standard deviation score; P=0.001) all independently increased SBP change to 1 year, whereas increase in length decreased SBP (-1.98; -3.6 to -0.40). In conclusion, malaria-exposed boys had excess hypertension, whereas malaria-exposed girls a greater increase in SBP. Intrauterine exposure to malaria had sex-dependent effects on BP, independent of infant growth. Because infant-child-adult BP tracking is powerful, a malarial effect may contribute to the African burden of hypertension.

Circulating insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3 levels, independent of insulin-like growth factor 1, associate with truncal fat and systolic blood pressure in South Asian and white European preschool children.

AIMS: To study the effect of the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) system on growth, adiposity and systolic blood pressure (SBP) in early life in British-born South Asian (SA) and White European (WE) children. METHODS: The effect of IGF-1 and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3) over the first 4 years in 204 healthy SA and WE children was investigated by mixed linear regression modelling. This enabled inclusion of all follow-up observations and adjustment for repeated measures. RESULTS: At birth, SA babies were shorter and lighter than WE babies. Over 4 years, SA ethnicity was associated with lower height, weight and body mass index (BMI) standard deviation score (SDS), higher subscapular/triceps skinfold thickness (Ss/Tr SFT) and lower SBP (all p < 0.01). IGF-1 was associated with greater height (p = 0.03), weight (p < 0.001) and BMI SDS (p < 0.001), and IGFBP-3 with greater weight SDS (p < 0.001), BMI SDS (p = 0.001), Ss/Tr SFT (p = 0.003) and SBP (p = 0.023). CONCLUSIONS: Over this first 4-year period of life, SA ethnicity was associated with being shorter, lighter, having more superficial truncal adiposity and lower SBP. IGFBP-3 (and not IGF-1) was independently associated with both superficial truncal adiposity and SBP, suggesting that IGFBP-3 is a potential metabolic and cardiovascular marker in healthy children in the early years of life.

Seasonal and socio-demographic predictors of suicide in Ireland: a 22 year study.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influences on suicide have been studied for many years with inconclusive and contradictory findings. METHODS: Data on suicide in Ireland from 1980 to 2002 was examined to ascertain the contribution of season and demographic variables to suicide. Using Poisson regression modelling and sinusoidal analysis a small seasonal effect (7% from peak to trough) was identified but age, gender, marital status and residence were much larger contributors. The seasonal contribution increased in the latter half of the period under study. There was also a small seasonal effect for method of suicide. The suicide rate was highest in the 40-44 age group after controlling for confounders. LIMITATIONS: Because this was an ecological study, information on other possible contributors, such as mental illness was not available. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are discussed in light of international studies. Continuing studies are required to confirm the trend in increasing seasonality in Ireland. Since suicide is highest in those who are middle aged, preventive strategies should be directed to this group.

The use of epidemiological measures to estimate the impact of primary prevention interventions on CHD, stroke and cancer outcomes: experiences from Herefordshire, UK.

BACKGROUND: CHD, stroke and cancers are the major causes of mortality in the UK and are responsible for significant amounts of morbidity and healthcare costs. This study examines the proportion of CHD, stroke and cancer owing to specific risk factors in Herefordshire, UK. It estimates the population impact of a number of interventions being implemented to reduce these risk factors, through the NHS Health Check program and the Herefordshire Health Improvement Plan. The present study also aims to demonstrate the value of epidemiological measures in providing evidence-based public health information in policy-making to aid decision makers when prioritizing investments and optimal use of resources. METHODS: The epidemiological measures-'Population Attributable Risk' and 'Population Impact Measures'-were used to assess the impact of interventions to reduce the burden of CHD, stroke and cancer. RESULTS: Implementation of the NHS Health Check program will prevent 63 CHD events, 90 MI events and 125 stroke events, and one lung cancer over a period of 5 years. Reducing specific risk factors by 5% annually through the Health Improvement Plan will prevent 65 CHD events, 25 MI events, 140 stroke events, four lung cancer, one breast cancer and four colorectal cancer cases in Herefordshire if targets are met over a period of 5 years. CONCLUSION: Physical inactivity and obesity are the major causes of CHD and stroke events (incidence and mortality) in Herefordshire. Their impact is greater than the combined effect of hypercholesterolemia and hypertension. Epidemiological measures used in this study proved to be excellent tools in providing evidence-based public health information. Their use is strongly recommended to support prioritization of primary prevention interventions.

The statistical pitfalls of the partially randomized preference design in non-blinded trials of psychological interventions.

In a partially randomized preference trial (PRPT) patients with no treatment preference are allocated to groups at random, but those who express a preference receive the treatment of their choice. It has been suggested that the design can improve the external and internal validity of trials. We used computer simulation to illustrate the impact that an unmeasured confounder could have on the results and conclusions drawn from a PRPT. We generated 4000 observations ("patients") that reflected the distribution of the Beck Depression Index (DBI) in trials of depression. Half were randomly assigned to a randomized controlled trial (RCT) design and half were assigned to a PRPT design. In the RCT, "patients" were evenly split between treatment and control groups; whereas in the preference arm, to reflect patient choice, 87.5% of patients were allocated to the experimental treatment and 12.5% to the control. Unadjusted analyses of the PRPT data consistently overestimated the treatment effect and its standard error. This lead to Type I errors when the true treatment effect was small and Type II errors when the confounder effect was large. The PRPT design is not recommended as a method of establishing an unbiased estimate of treatment effect due to the potential influence of unmeasured confounders.

Gender dichotomy in long term growth trajectories of children with 21-hydroxylase deficiency congenital adrenal hyperplasia.

AIM: To evaluate longitudinal growth in 21-hydroxylase deficiency congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), factors contributing to this and outcome for BMI, weight (Wt) and height (Ht) in adolescence. METHODS: Multi-level longitudinal models were used to evaluate growth patterns of 45 salt wasters (SW) and 12 non-SW with CAH. RESULTS: Ht, Wt and BMI growth curves differed between SW and non-SW, and by gender. In contrast to SW and males, non-SW females showed a markedly different pattern with a progressive increase in Wt and BMI SDS over childhood and adolescence and only a slight gain in Ht SDS. BMI SDS remained above 0 after early childhood. Over the 15 years, the growth variables were negatively associated with fludrocortisone (FC) (shorter children were receiving larger doses) but not hydrocortisone (HC) doses nor FC and HC doses in the first year. CONCLUSION: The growth patterns in these children with CAH were influenced by age, gender, phenotype and FC treatment. There was a trend to increasing BMI from an early age, greater adiposity during childhood and females had disproportionately greater adiposity but shorter stature during adolescence. These patients therefore have a predisposition to obesity in childhood and later life independent of early corticosteroid treatment.

Maternal malaria, birth size and blood pressure in Nigerian newborns: insights into the developmental origins of hypertension from the Ibadan growth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is an increasing health issue in sub-Saharan Africa where malaria remains common in pregnancy. We established a birth cohort in Nigeria to evaluate the early impact of maternal malaria on newborn blood pressure (BP). METHODS: Anthropometric measurements, BP, blood films for malaria parasites and haematocrit were obtained in 436 mother-baby pairs. Women were grouped to distinguish between the timing of malaria parasitaemia as 'No Malaria', 'Malaria during pregnancy only' or 'Malaria at delivery', and parasite density as low (<1000 parasites/µl of blood) and high (≥ 1000/µl). RESULTS: Prevalence of maternal malaria parasitaemia was 48%, associated with younger maternal age (p<0.001), being primigravid (p = 0.022), lower haematocrit (p = 0.028). High parasite density through pregnancy had the largest effect on mean birth indices so that weight, length, head and mid-upper arm circumferences were smaller by 300 g, 1.1 cm, 0.7 cm and 0.4 cm respectively compared with 'No malaria' (all p ≤ 0.005). In babies of mothers who had 'malaria at delivery', their SBPs adjusted for other confounders were lower respectively by 4.3 and 5.7 mmHg/kg compared with 'malaria during pregnancy only' or 'none'. In contrast the mean newborn systolic (SBP) and diastolic BPs (DBP) adjusted for birth weight were higher by 1.7 and 1.4 mmHg/kg respectively in babies whose mothers had high compared with low parasitaemia. CONCLUSIONS: As expected, prenatal malarial exposure had a significant impact on fetal growth rates. Malaria at delivery was associated with the lowest newborn BPs while malaria through pregnancy, which may attenuate growth of the vascular network, generated higher newborn BPs adjusted for size. These neonatal findings have potential implications for cardiovascular health in sub-Saharan Africa.