Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability.

Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.

Ecological and developmental dynamics of a host-parasite system involving a sea anemone and two ctenophores.

The lined sea anemone Edwardsiella lineata has evolved a derived parasitic life history that includes a novel body plan adapted for life inside its ctenophore hosts. Reputedly its sole host is the sea walnut, Mnemiopsis leidyi, a voracious planktivore and a seasonally abundant member of many pelagic ecosystems. However, we have observed substantially higher E. lineata prevalence in a second ctenophore species, the ctenophore predator Beroë ovata. The interplay among these 3 species has important conservation consequences as M. leidyi introductions are thought to be responsible for the severe depletion of numerous commercial fisheries in the Mediterranean basin, and both E. lineata and B. ovata have been proposed as biological controls for invasive M. leidyi. Over a 3-yr period (2004-2006), we collected 8,253 ctenophores from Woods Hole, Massachusetts, including M. leidyi, B. ovata, and a third ctenophore, Pleurobrachia pileus, and we recorded E. lineata infection frequencies, parasite load, and parasite location. We also conducted laboratory experiments to determine the likely mechanisms for parasite introduction and the effect of each host on parasite development. We observed peak E. lineata infection frequencies of 0% in P. pileus, 59% in M. leidyi, and 100% in B. ovata, suggesting that B. ovata could be an important natural host for E. lineata. However, in laboratory experiments, E. lineata larvae proved far more successful at infecting M. leidyi than B. ovata, and E. lineata parasites excised from M. leidyi exhibited greater developmental competence than parasites excised from B. ovata. Although we show that E. lineata is efficiently transferred from M. leidyi to B. ovata when the latter preys upon the former, we conclude that E. lineata larvae are not well adapted for parasitizing the latter species and that the E. lineata parasite is not well adapted for feeding in B. ovata; these developmental and ecological factors underlie the host specificity of this recently evolved parasite.