Impact of standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors on 2-year all-cause mortality: Insights from an international cohort of 23,489 patients with acute coronary syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Controversial findings have been reported in the literature regarding the impact of the absence of standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (SMuRFs) on long-term mortality risk in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). While the prognostic additive value of SMuRFs has been well described, the prognostic role of prior cardiovascular disease (CVD) by sex is less well-known in patients with and without SMuRFs. METHODS: EPICOR and EPICOR Asia are prospective, observational registries conducted between 2010 and 2014, which enrolled ACS patients in 28 countries across Europe, Latin America, and Asia. Association between SMuRFs (diabetes, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, and smoking) and 2-year postdischarge mortality was evaluated using adjusted Cox models stratified by geographical region. RESULTS: Among 23,489 patients, the mean age was 60.9 ± 11.9 years, 24.3% were women, 4,582 (20.1%) presented without SMuRFs, and 16,055 (69.5%) without prior CVD. Patients with SMuRFs had a higher crude 2-year postdischarge mortality (HR 1.86; 95% CI, 1.56-2.22; P < .001), compared to those without SMuRFs. After adjustment for potential confounding, the association between SMuRFs and 2-year mortality risk was substantially attenuated (HR 1.17, 95% CI 0.98-1.41; P = .087), regardless of the type of ACS. The risk conferred by prior CVD was added to the underlying risk of SMuRFs to provide risk-specific phenotypes (eg, women with SMuRFs and with prior CVD were at higher risk of dying than women without SMuRFs and without CVD; HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.34-2.06). CONCLUSIONS: In this large-scale international ACS cohort the absence of SMuRFs was not associated with a lower adjusted 2-year postdischarge mortality risk. Patients with both SMuRFs and prior CVD had a higher mortality irrespective of their sex.

Metoprolol blunts the time-dependent progression of infarct size.

Early metoprolol administration protects against myocardial ischemia-reperfusion injury, but its effect on infarct size progression (ischemic injury) is unknown. Eight groups of pigs (total n = 122) underwent coronary artery occlusion of varying duration (20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, or 60 min) followed by reperfusion. In each group, pigs were randomized to i.v. metoprolol (0.75 mg/kg) or vehicle (saline) 20 min after ischemia onset. The primary outcome measure was infarct size (IS) on day7 cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) normalized to area at risk (AAR, measured by perfusion computed tomography [CT] during ischemia). Metoprolol treatment reduced overall mortality (10% vs 26%, p = 0.03) and the incidence and number of primary ventricular fibrillations during infarct induction. In controls, IS after 20-min ischemia was ≈ 5% of the area AAR. Thereafter, IS progressed exponentially, occupying almost all the AAR after 35 min of ischemia. Metoprolol injection significantly reduced the slope of IS progression (p = 0.004 for final IS). Head-to-head comparison (metoprolol treated vs vehicle treated) showed statistically significant reductions in IS at 30, 35, 40, and 50-min reperfusion. At 60-min reperfusion, IS was 100% of AAR in both groups. Despite more prolonged ischemia, metoprolol-treated pigs reperfused at 50 min had smaller infarcts than control pigs undergoing ischemia for 40 or 45 min and similar-sized infarcts to those undergoing 35-min ischemia. Day-45 LVEF was higher in metoprolol-treated vs vehicle-treated pigs (41.6% vs 36.5%, p = 0.008). In summary, metoprolol administration early during ischemia attenuates IS progression and reduces the incidence of primary ventricular fibrillation. These data identify metoprolol as an intervention ideally suited to the treatment of STEMI patients identified early in the course of infarction and requiring long transport times before primary angioplasty.

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor as a long-term prognostic biomarker in acute coronary syndromes.

Purpose: The aim of our study was to analyse the long-term prognostic value of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) in the setting of an acute coronary syndrome (ACS).Methods: We included 340 patients with an ACS who underwent coronary angiography and plasma suPAR concentration was measured. Patients were classified into low suPAR concentrations (<2.6 ng/mL) and high suPAR concentrations (≥2.6 ng/mL) and long-term events were evaluated. suPAR prognostic value was assessed beyond a clinical model that included age, GRACE score, estimated glomerular filtration rate, cardiac troponin-I peak and left ventricular ejection fraction <40%.Results: Higher suPAR concentrations were associated with an increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. After multivariate adjustment, suPAR ≥2.6 ng/mL were independently associated with an increased risk of all-cause death (HR 2.3; 95%CI 1.2-4.4; p = .017), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (HR 1.7; 95%CI 1.1-2.5; p = .020) and heart failure (HR 4.1; 95%CI 1.3-12.6; p = .015), but not with myocardial infarction. For long-term all-cause death significant improvement of reclassification and discrimination were seen after addition of suPAR to a clinical model.Conclusions: In the setting of an ACS, suPAR is associated with long-term all-cause death, heart failure and MACE, and provides incremental prognostic value beyond traditional risks factors.

Prognostic implications of detectable cardiac troponin I below the 99th percentile in patients admitted to an emergency department without acute coronary syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Detectable troponin below the 99th percentile may reflect an underlying cardiac abnormality which might entail prognostic consequences. This study aimed to investigate the prognosis of patients admitted to an emergency department (ED) with detectable troponin below the 99th percentile reference limit who did not present with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS: We analysed the clinical data of all consecutive patients admitted to the ED during the years 2012 and 2013 in whom cardiac troponin was requested by the attending clinician (cTnI Ultra Siemens, Advia Centaur). Patients with troponin below the 99th percentile of the reference population (40 ng/L) and who did not have a diagnosis of ACS were selected, and their mortality was evaluated in a 2-year follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 2501 patients had a troponin level below the reference limit, with 43.9% of those showing detectable levels (>6 ng/L and <40 ng/L). Patients with detectable levels were elderly and had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular history and more comorbidities. The total mortality in the 2-year follow-up was 12.4% in patients with detectable troponin and 4.5% in patients with undetectable troponin (p<0.001). In the Cox multivariate regression analysis, the detectable troponin was an independent marker of mortality at 2 years (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.07-2.45, p=0.021). CONCLUSIONS: Detectable troponin I below the 99th percentile is associated with higher mortality risk at 2-year follow-up in patients admitted to the ED who did not present with ACS.

Type of evidence supporting ACC/AHA and ESC clinical practice guidelines for acute coronary syndrome.

AIM: The aim of clinical practice guidelines for ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) is to assist healthcare professionals in clinical decision-making. We evaluated the type of studies supporting these guidelines and their recommendations. METHODS: All references and recommendations in the 2013 and 2014 ACC/AHA and 2017 and 2020 (ESC clinical guidelines for STEMI and NSTE-ACS were reviewed. References were classified into meta-analyses, randomised, non-randomised, and other types (e.g., position papers, reviews). Recommendations were classified according to class and their level of evidence (LOE). RESULTS: We retrieved 2128 non-duplicated references: 8.4% were meta-analyses, 26.2% randomised studies, 44.7% non-randomised studies, and 20.7% 'other' papers. Meta-analyses were based on randomised data in 78% of cases and used individual-patient data in 20.2%. Compared to non-randomised studies, randomised studies were more frequently multicentre (85.5% vs. 65.5%) and international (58.2% vs. 28.5%). The type of studies supporting recommendations varied as per the LOE of the recommendation. For LOE-A recommendations, the breakdown of supporting recommendations was: 18.5% meta-analyses, 56.6% randomised studies, 16.6% non-randomised studies and 8.3% 'other' papers; for LOE-B this breakdown was 9%, 39.8%, 38.2%, and 12.9%; and for LOE-C; 4.6%, 19.3%, 30.3%, and 45.9%. CONCLUSIONS: The references supporting the ACC/AHA and ESC guidelines on STEMI and NSTE-ACS consisted of non-randomised studies in ~ 45% of cases, with less than a third of the references consisting of meta-analyses and randomised studies. The type of studies supporting guideline recommendations varied widely by the LOE of the recommendation.

A systematic assessment of the characteristics of randomized controlled trials cited by acute coronary syndrome clinical practice guidelines.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to describe the methodological features of the randomized controlled trials (RCTs) cited in American and European clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) for ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). METHODS AND RESULTS: Out of 2128 non-duplicated references cited in the 2013 and 2014 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and 2017 and 2020 European Society of Cardiology CPGs for STEMI and NSTE-ACS, we extracted data for 407 RCTs (19.1% of total references). The majority were multicenter studies (81.8%), evaluated pharmacological interventions (63.1%), had a 2-arm (82.6%), and superiority (90.4%) design. Most RCTs (60.2%) had an active comparator, and 46.2% were funded by industry. The median observed sample size was 1001 patients (84.2% of RCTs achieved ≥80% of the intended sample size). Most RCTs had a single primary outcome (90.9%), which was a composite in just over half (51.9%). Among the RCTs testing for superiority, 44.0% reported a P-value of ≥0.05 for the primary outcome and 61.9% observed a risk reduction of >15%. The observed treatment effect was lower-than-expected in 67.6% of RCTs, with 34.4% having at least a 20% lower-than-expected treatment effect. The calculated post hoc statistical power was ≥80% for 33.9% of cited RCTs. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis demonstrates that RCTs cited by CPGs can still have significant methodological issues and limitations, highlighting that a better understanding of the methodological aspects of RCTs is crucial in order to formulate recommendations relevant to clinical practice.

Secondary Prevention Therapies in Real-World Patients with Myocardial Infarction: Eligibility Based on Randomized Trials Supporting European and American Guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate the applicability of the eligibility criteria of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) cited in guideline recommendations in a real-world cohort of patients receiving secondary prevention after acute myocardial infarction from the EPICOR registries. METHODS: Recommendations provided by American and European guidelines for acute myocardial infarction were classified into general (applying to all patients) and specific (applying to patients with left ventricular dysfunction or heart failure). Randomized controlled trials cited in these recommendations were selected, and their entry criteria were applied to our international cohort of 18,117 patients. RESULTS: There were 91.5% patients eligible for beta blockers (84.6% for general, and 5.9% for specific recommendations), 97.7% eligible for renin-angiotensin system inhibitor (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers [ACEI/ARB]) recommendations (69.9% for general, 27.9% for specific) and 4.1% eligible for mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (only specific recommendations). The percentages of patients with eligibility criteria who were discharged with a prescription of the recommended therapies were 80%-85% for beta blockers, 70%-75% for ACEI/ARB, and 29% for mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists. There were large regional variations in the percentage of eligible patients and in those receiving the medications (eg, 95% in Northern Europe and 57% in Southeast Asia for beta blockers). CONCLUSION: Most real-world acute myocardial infarction patients are eligible for secondary prevention therapy in both general and specific guideline recommendations, and the percentage of those on beta blockers and ACEI/ARB at hospital discharge is high. There are large regional variations in the proportion of patients receiving recommended therapies. Local targeted interventions are needed for quality improvement.

The fragility index in randomized clinical trials supporting clinical practice guidelines for acute coronary syndrome: measuring robustness from a different perspective.

AIMS: In randomized clinical trials (RCTs) rejecting the null hypothesis, the fragility index (FI) yields the minimum number of participants who would need to have had a different outcome for the results of the trial to become non-significant. We evaluated the robustness of RCTs supporting American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) and European Society of Cardiology (ESC) clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) using the FI. METHODS AND RESULTS: There were 407 RCTs among the 2128 studies cited in the 2013 and 2014 ACC/AHA and 2017 and 2020 ESC CPGs for STEMI and NSTE-ACS, respectively. The FI could be calculated in 132 RCTs (32.4%) meeting the needed criteria for its estimation (two-arm RCT, 1:1 allocation, binary outcome, P < 0.05). The median FI was 12 (interquartile range: 4-29). Hence, a change in the outcome status of 12 patients would be needed to reverse the statistical significance of the primary endpoint in 50% of the RCTs. The FI was ≤1% than their sample size in 55.7% RCTs, whereas in 47% of RCTs, the FI was lower than the number of patients lost to follow-up. Some study design features were associated with a higher FI (international, multicentre, private funding; all P < 0.05), whilst baseline patient characteristics were not substantially different by FI (e.g. age, female sex, white study participants; all P > 0.05), except for geographic enrolment (P = 0.042). CONCLUSION: The FI might be useful to evaluate the robustness of those RCTs with statistically significant findings for the primary endpoint that have an impact on key guideline recommendations.

Representativeness in randomised clinical trials supporting acute coronary syndrome guidelines.

AIMS: Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) are published to guide the management of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We aimed to critically appraise the representativeness and standard of care of randomised clinical trials (RCTs) supporting CPGs for ACS. METHODS AND RESULTS: American and European CPGs for ST- and non-ST-elevation ACS were screened to extract all references (n = 2128) and recommendations (n = 600). Among the 407 primary publications of RCTs (19.1%), there were 52.6 and 73.2% recruiting patients in North America and Europe, respectively, whereas other regions were largely under-represented (e.g. 25.3% RCTs recruited in Asia). There was 68.6% RCTs enrolling patient with ACS, whereas the remaining 31.4% did not enrol any patient with ACS. There was under-representation of some important subgroups, including elderly, female (29.9%), and non-white patients (<20%). The incidence and type of reperfusion reported in these RCTs were not reflective of current clinical practice (the percentage of patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) among all RCTs was 42.7%; whereas for ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction patients, the number of participants who underwent fibrinolysis was 3.3-fold higher than those who underwent primary PCI). All-cause mortality in these RCTs was 11.9% in RCTs with a follow-up ≤ 1 year. CONCLUSION: Randomised clinical trials supporting CPGs for ACS are not fully representative of the diversity of the ACS population and their current standard of care. While some of these issues with representativeness may be explained by how evidence has been accrued over time, efforts should be made by trialists to ensure that the evidence supporting CPGs is representative of the wider ACS population.

Survival analyses in cardiovascular research, part II: statistical methods in challenging situations.

This article is the second of a series of 2 educational articles. In the first article, we described the basic concepts of survival analysis, summarizing the common statistical methods and providing a set of recommendations to guide the strategy of survival analyses in randomized clinical trials and observational studies. Here, we introduce stratified Cox models and frailty models, as well as the immortal time bias arising from a poor assessment of time-dependent variables. To address the issue of multiplicity of outcomes, we provide several modelling strategies to deal with other types of time-to-event data analyses, such as competing risks, multistate models, and recurrent-event methods. This review is illustrated with examples from previous cardiovascular research publications, and each statistical method is discussed alongside its main strengths and limitations. Finally, we provide some general observations about alternative statistical methods with less restrictive assumptions, such as the win ratio method, the restrictive mean survival time, and accelerated failure time model.

Survival analyses in cardiovascular research, part I: the essentials.

This review provides a practical guide to the essentials of survival analysis and their reporting in cardiovascular studies, although most of its key content can be extrapolated to other medical fields. This is the first in a series of 2 educational articles laying the groundwork to address the most relevant statistical issues in survival analyses, which will smoothly drive the reader from the most basic analyses to the most complex situations. The focus will be on the type and shape of survival data, and the most common statistical methods, such as nonparametric, parametric and semiparametric models. Their adequacy, interpretation, advantages and disadvantages are illustrated by examples from the field of cardiovascular research. This article ends with a set of recommendations to guide the strategy of survival analyses for a randomized clinical trial and observational studies. Other topics, such as competing risks, multistate models and recurrent-event methods will be addressed in the second article.

Echocardiographic assessment of COVID19 sequelae in survivors with elevated cardiac biomarkers.

AIMS: We sought to determine, using advanced echocardiography, the prevalence and type of cardiovascular sequelae after COVID19 infection with marked elevation of cardiovascular biomarkers (CVB), and their prognostic implications. METHODS: All patients admitted from March 1st to May 25th, 2020 to a tertiary referral hospital were included. Those with cardiovascular diseases or dead during admission were excluded. Patients with hs-TnI > 45 ng/L, NT-proBNP>300 pg/mL, and D-dimer >8000 ng/mL were matched with COVID controls (three biomarkers within the normal range) based on intensive care requirements and age, and separately analyzed. RESULTS: From 2025 patients, 80 patients with significantly elevated CVB and 29 controls were finally included. No differences in baseline characteristics were observed among groups, but elevated CVB patients were sicker. Follow-up echocardiograms showed no differences among groups regarding LVEF and only slight differences between groups within the normal range. Hs-TnI patients had lower myocardial work and longitudinal strain. The presence of an abnormal echocardiogram was more frequent in the elevated CVB group compared to controls (23.8 vs 10.3%, P = 0.123) but mainly associated with mild abnormalities in deformation parameters. Management did not change in any case and no major cardiovascular events except deep vein thrombosis occurred after a median follow-up of 7 months. CONCLUSION: Minimal abnormalities in cardiac structure and function are observed in COVID19 survivors without previous cardiovascular diseases who presented a significant CVB rise at admission, with no impact on patient management or short-term prognosis. These results do not support a routine screening program after discharge in this population.

Short-term mortality differs between men and women according to the presence of previous cardiovascular disease: Insights from a nationwide STEMI cohort.

BACKGROUND: Sex and prior cardiovascular disease (CVD) are known independent prognostic factors following an ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We aimed to examine whether the association between sex and 30-day mortality differ according to the presence of previous CVD in STEMI patients. METHODS: Prospective, observational, multicentre registry of consecutive patients managed in 17 STEMI networks in Spain (83 centres), between April and June 2019. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models assessed the association of 30-day mortality with sex and prior CVD status, as well as their interaction. RESULTS: Among 4366 patients (mean age 63.7 ± 13.0 years; 78% male), there were 337 (8.1%) deaths within the first 30 days. There was an association between crude 30-day mortality and sex (women 10.4% vs. men 7.4%, p = 0.003), and prior CVD (CVD 13.7% vs non-CVD 6.8%, p < 0.001). After adjustment for potential confounding, neither sex nor prior CVD were apparently associated with mortality. Nevertheless, we found a significant sex-CVD interaction (p-interaction = 0.006), since women were at lower risk than men in the subset of patients with prior CVD (OR = 0.30, 95%CI = 0.12-0.80) but not in those without CVD (OR = 1.17, 95%CI = 0.79-1.74). CONCLUSIONS: Women as well as patients with prior CVD have an increased crude risk of 30-day mortality. However, sex-related differences in short term mortality are modulated by the interaction with CVD in STEMI patients. Compared to men, women had a similar prognosis in the subset of patients without CVD, whereas they were associated with a lower risk of mortality among those with prior CVD after adjusting for other prognostic factors.

Impact of SARS-Cov-2 infection in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: results of an international multicentre registry.

AIMS: To describe the natural history of SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) compared with a control group and to identify predictors of adverse events. METHODS AND RESULTS: Three hundred and five patients [age 56.6 ± 16.9 years old, 191 (62.6%) male patients] with HCM and SARS-Cov-2 infection were enrolled. The control group consisted of 91 131 infected individuals. Endpoints were (i) SARS-CoV-2 related mortality and (ii) severe clinical course [death or intensive care unit (ICU) admission]. New onset of atrial fibrillation, ventricular arrhythmias, shock, stroke, and cardiac arrest were also recorded. Sixty-nine (22.9%) HCM patients were hospitalized for non-ICU level care, and 21 (7.0%) required ICU care. Seventeen (5.6%) died: eight (2.6%) of respiratory failure, four (1.3%) of heart failure, two (0.7%) suddenly, and three (1.0%) due to other SARS-CoV-2-related complications. Covariates associated with mortality in the multivariable were age {odds ratio (OR) per 10 year increase 2.25 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12-4.51], P = 0.0229}, baseline New York Heart Association class [OR per one-unit increase 4.01 (95%CI: 1.75-9.20), P = 0.0011], presence of left ventricular outflow tract obstruction [OR 5.59 (95%CI: 1.16-26.92), P = 0.0317], and left ventricular systolic impairment [OR 7.72 (95%CI: 1.20-49.79), P = 0.0316]. Controlling for age and sex and comparing HCM patients with a community-based SARS-CoV-2 cohort, the presence of HCM was associated with a borderline significant increased risk of mortality OR 1.70 (95%CI: 0.98-2.91, P = 0.0600). CONCLUSIONS: Over one-fourth of HCM patients infected with SARS-Cov-2 required hospitalization, including 6% in an ICU setting. Age and cardiac features related to HCM, including baseline functional class, left ventricular outflow tract obstruction, and systolic impairment, conveyed increased risk of mortality.

Safety and efficacy of coronary laser ablation as an adjunctive therapy in percutaneous coronary intervention: a single-centre experience.

BACKGROUND: Coronary laser is a long-established coadjuvant therapy in interventional cardiology. This study aimed to present our experience regarding the safety and efficacy of laser assistance to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in different scenarios of coronary artery disease. METHODS: We used coronary laser as an adjunctive therapy for PCI between May 2014 and March 2020. The safety of laser ablation was evaluated by studying any complication associated with the laser application. Besides, the laser contribution to PCI and 1 year of follow-up for adverse cardiac events was studied. RESULTS: Coronary laser was performed in 81 lesions and 75 patients in different scenarios to assist PCI. The average age was 66 ± 11.7 years and 72 (88.9%) were men. Coronary laser was used in 30 (37%) cases for in-stent-material debulking; 26 (32.1%) in primary angioplasty, 19 (23.4%) in chronic total occlusion and 5 (6.2%) in saphenous vein grafts. Procedural success was achieved in 77 (95.1%) with 1 (1.2%) type III coronary perforation. One year of follow-up for combined adverse cardiac events consisting of death due to any cause, myocardial infarction or target vessel failure showed an event-free rate of 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.91). CONCLUSIONS: Our preliminary experience reveals the safety and efficacy of the current modality of coronary laser as a coadjuvant therapy in PCI with a low rate of adverse cardiac events in 1-year of follow-up. Further studies are needed to establish more precisely the contribution of laser application in different contexts of coronary artery disease.

Prognostic implications of troponin I elevation in emergency department patients with tachyarrhythmia.

BACKGROUND: Tachyarrhythmias are very common in emergency medicine, and little is known about the long-term prognostic implications of troponin I levels in these patients. HYPOTHESIS: This study aimed to investigate the correlation of cardiac troponin I (cTnI) levels and long-term prognosis in patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) with a primary diagnosis of tachyarrhythmia. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted between January 2012 and December 2013, enrolling patients admitted to the ED with a primary diagnosis of tachyarrhythmia and having documented cTnI measurements. Clinical characteristics and 5-year all-cause mortality were analyzed. RESULTS: Of a total of 222 subjects with a primary diagnosis of tachyarrhythmia, 73 patients had elevated levels of cTnI (32.9%). Patients with elevated cTnI levels were older and presented significantly more cardiovascular risk factors. At the 5-year follow-up, mortality was higher among patients with elevated cTnI levels (log-rank test P < 0.001). In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, elevated cTnI was an independent predictor of all-cause death (hazard ratio, 1.95, 95% confidence interval: 1.08-3.50, P = 0.026), in addition to age and prior heart failure. CONCLUSION: Patients admitted to the ED with a primary diagnosis of tachyarrhythmia and high cTnI levels have higher long-term mortality rates than patients with low cTnI levels. cTnI is thus a biomarker with predictive capacity for mortality in late follow-up, conferring utility in the risk stratification of this population.

Risk Estimation in Type 2 Myocardial Infarction and Myocardial Injury: The TARRACO Risk Score.

BACKGROUND: Despite adverse prognoses of type 2 myocardial infarction and myocardial injury, an effective, practical risk stratification method remains an unmet clinical need. We sought to develop an efficient clinical bedside tool for estimating the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events at 180 days for this patient population. METHODS: The derivation cohort included patients with type 2 myocardial infarction or myocardial injury admitted to a tertiary hospital between 2012 and 2013 (n = 611). The primary outcome was a major adverse cardiovascular event (death or readmission for heart failure or myocardial infarction). The score included clinical variables significantly associated with the outcome. External validation was conducted using the UTROPIA cohort (n = 401). RESULTS: The TARRACO Score included cardiac troponin (cTn) concentrations and 5 independent clinical predictors of adverse cardiovascular events: age, hypertension, absence of chest pain, dyspnea, and anemia. The score exhibited good discriminative accuracy (area under the curve = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.70-0.79). Patients were classified into low-risk (score 0-6) and high-risk (score ≥7) categories. Major adverse cardiovascular events rates were 5 times more likely in high-risk patients compared with those at low risk (78.9 vs 15.4 events/100 patient-years, respectively; logrank P < .001). The external validation showed equivalent prognostic capacity (area under the curve=0.71, 0.65-0.78). CONCLUSION: A novel risk score based on bedside clinical variables and cTn concentrations allows risk stratification for death and cardiac-related rehospitalizations in patients with type 2 myocardial infarctions and myocardial injury. This score identifies patients at the highest risk of adverse events, a subset of patients who may benefit from close observation, medical intensification, or both.