Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?

Large-scale and long-term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process-based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26-year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North-East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical-biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.

Diet composition of starry smooth-hound Mustelus asterias and methodological considerations for assessing the trophic level of predatory fish.

The stomach contents of 640 starry smooth-hound Mustelus asterias from the north-east Atlantic were examined. The diet was dominated by crustaceans (98.8% percentage of index of relative importance, %IRI), with the two main prey species being hermit crab Pagurus bernhardus (34% IRI) and flying crab Liocarcinus holsatus (15% IRI). Ontogenetic dietary preferences showed that smaller individuals [20-69 cm total length (LT ) n = 283] had a significantly lower diversity of prey than larger individuals (70-124 cm LT , n = 348); however, 18 prey species were found exclusively in smaller individuals and eight prey taxa were found exclusively in larger individuals. Larger commercially important brachyurans such as edible crab Cancer pagurus and velvet swimming crab Necora puber were more prevalent in the diet of larger individuals. Specimens from the North Sea ecoregion had a lower diversity of prey types for a given sample size than fish from the Celtic Seas ecoregion. Whilst cumulative prey curves did not reach an asymptote, this was primarily due to the high taxonomic resolution utilized and 95% of the diet was described by just seven crustacean taxa. The trophic level (TL) was calculated as 4.34 when species-level prey categories were used. This fine-scale taxonomic resolution resulted in a TL estimate close to a whole level above that estimated using wider taxonomic groupings. This large bias has important methodological implications for TL studies based on categorized prey data, particularly those of predatory fish.

Effects of genotoxicity and its consequences at the population level in sexual and asexual Artemia assessed by analysis of inter-simple sequence repeats (ISSR).

There is considerable evidence that genetic damage in organisms occurs in the environment as a result of exposure to genotoxins and ionising radiation, but we have limited understanding of the extent to which this results in adverse consequences at a population level. We used inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers to quantify genotoxic effects of the mutagen ethylmethane sulfonate (EMS) on a sexual (Artemia franciscana) and an asexual (Artemia parthenogenetica) species of brine shrimp. The method provides information similar to that obtained with assessment of RAPD (random amplification of polymorphic DNA) but is more robust. Genetic damage was transmitted to the F1 generation in both Artemia species, but the sexual species showed a greater degree of recovery, as shown by higher values of genomic template stability. There was a strong correlation between DNA damage and effects on individual fitness parameters: size, survival, reproduction and population growth. These effects persisted into the F2 generation in A. parthenogenetica, but in the sexual A. franciscana only effects on fecundity continued beyond the exposed generation, even though there were substantial alterations in ISSR patterns in the F1 generation. Genetic biomarkers can thus be indicative of effects at the population level, but sexually reproducing species have a considerable assimilative capacity for the effects of genotoxins.

Differential responses of sexual and asexual Artemia to genotoxicity by a reference mutagen: Is the comet assay a reliable predictor of population level responses?

The impact of chronic genotoxicity to natural populations is always questioned due to their reproductive surplus. We used a comet assay to quantify primary DNA damage after exposure to a reference mutagen ethyl methane sulfonate in two species of crustacean with different reproductive strategies (sexual Artemia franciscana and asexual Artemia parthenogenetica). We then assessed whether this predicted individual performance and population growth rate over three generations. Artemia were exposed to different chronic concentrations (0.78mM, 1.01mM, 1.24mM and 1.48mM) of ethyl methane sulfonate from instar 1 onwards for 3 h, 24 h, 7 days, 14 days and 21 days and percentage tail DNA values were used for comparisons between species. The percentage tail DNA values showed consistently elevated values up to 7 days and showed a reduction from 14 days onwards in A. franciscana. Whilst in A. parthenogenetica such a reduction was evident on 21 days assessment. The values of percentage tail DNA after 21 days were compared with population level fitness parameters, growth, survival, fecundity and population growth rate to know whether primary DNA damage as measured by comet assay is a reliable biomarker. Substantial increase in tail DNA values was associated with substantial reductions in all the fitness parameters in the parental generation of A. franciscana and parental, F1 and F2 generations of A. parthenogenetica. So comet results were more predictive in asexual species over generations. These results pointed to the importance of predicting biomarker responses from multigenerational consequences considering life history traits and reproductive strategies in ecological risk assessments.

An assessment of the potential of the microbial assay for risk assessment (MARA) for ecotoxicological testing.

Rapid microscale toxicity tests make it possible to screen large numbers of compounds and greatly simplify toxicity identification evaluation and other effect directed chemical analyses of effluents or environmental samples. Tests using Vibrio fischeri (such as Microtox®) detect toxicants that cause non-specific narcosis, but are insensitive to other important classes of contaminants. The microbial assay for risk assessment (MARA) is a 24 h multi-species test that seeks to address this problem by using a battery of ten bacteria and a fungus. But there has been little independent evaluation of this test, and there is no published information on its sensitivity to pesticides. Here, we assess the performance of MARA using a range of toxicants including reference chemicals, fungicides and environmental samples. Mean MARA microbial toxic concentrations and IC(20)s (20% Inhibitory concentrations) indicate the toxicant concentrations affecting the more sensitive micro-organisms, while the mean IC(50) (50% Inhibitory concentration) was found to be the concentration that was toxic to most MARA species. For the two fungicides tested, the yeast (Pichia anomalia) was the most sensitive of the ten MARA species, and was more sensitive than the nine other yeasts tested. The test may be particularly valuable for work with fungicides. Mean MARA IC(50)s were comparable to values for nine other yeast species and the lowest individual IC(50)s for each toxicant were comparable to reported IC(50)s for Daphnia magna, Selenastrum capricornutum and Microtox® bioassays. MARA organisms exhibited more variable sensitivities, with the most sensitive organism being different for different samples, enhancing the likelihood of toxicity detection and giving a toxicity "fingerprint" that may help identify toxicants. The test, therefore, has great potential and would be valuable for ecotoxicological testing of pollutants.

Toxicity of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans.

The presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the environment has attracted much concern owing to their mutagenic and carcinogenic properties. Regulatory authorities have favored the use of biological indicators as an essential means of assessing potential toxicity of environmental pollutants. This study aimed to assess the toxicity of acenaphthene, phenanthrene, anthracene, fluoranthene, pyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene to Caenorhabditis elegans by measuring LC50 and EC50 values for growth and reproduction. The exposure to all chemicals was carried out in aqueous medium. All PAHs showed a low acute toxicity to C. elegans. There was no significant mortality in C. elegans after 24 h of exposure at PAH concentrations within (and indeed above) their respective solubility limits. Prolonged exposure (72 h) at high concentrations for acenaphthene (70,573 microg/L), phenanthrene (3758 microg/L), anthracene (1600 microg/L), fluoranthene (1955 microg/L), pyrene (1653 microg/L), and benzo[a]pyrene (80 microg/L) produced mortality. Results also showed that reproduction and growth were much more sensitive parameters of adverse response than lethality, and consequently may be more useful in assessing PAH toxicity using C. elegans. In comparison with previous studies, C. elegans was found to be approximately 2-fold less sensitive to acenaphthene, 5-fold less sensitive to phenanthrene, and 20-fold less sensitive to fluoranthene than Daphnia magna. However, the 48-h LC50 for benzo[a]pyrene (174 microg/L) reported in the present study with C. elegans was similar to that reported elsewhere for Daphnia magna (200 microg/L). Although C. elegans indicated greater sensitivity to benzo[a]pyrene than Artemia salina (174 microg/L vs. 10000 microg/L), the organism showed less sensitivity to pyrene (8 microg/L vs. 2418 microg/L), fluoranthene (40 microg/L vs. 2719 microg/L), and phenanthrene (677 microg/L vs. 4772 microg/L) than Artemia salina. Caenorhabditis elegans, while not the most sensitive of species for PAH toxicity assessment, may still hold applicability in screening of contaminated soils and sediments.

Microeconomic principles explain an optimal genome size in bacteria.

Bacteria can clearly enhance their survival by expanding their genetic repertoire. However, the tight packing of the bacterial genome and the fact that the most evolved species do not necessarily have the biggest genomes suggest there are other evolutionary factors limiting their genome expansion. To clarify these restrictions on size, we studied those protein families contributing most significantly to bacterial-genome complexity. We found that all bacteria apply the same basic and ancestral 'molecular technology' to optimize their reproductive efficiency. The same microeconomics principles that define the optimum size in a factory can also explain the existence of a statistical optimum in bacterial genome size. This optimum is reached when the bacterial genome obtains the maximum metabolic complexity (revenue) for minimal regulatory genes (logistic cost).

Predicting protein function with hierarchical phylogenetic profiles: the Gene3D Phylo-Tuner method applied to eukaryotic genomes.

"Phylogenetic profiling" is based on the hypothesis that during evolution functionally or physically interacting genes are likely to be inherited or eliminated in a codependent manner. Creating presence-absence profiles of orthologous genes is now a common and powerful way of identifying functionally associated genes. In this approach, correctly determining orthology, as a means of identifying functional equivalence between two genes, is a critical and nontrivial step and largely explains why previous work in this area has mainly focused on using presence-absence profiles in prokaryotic species. Here, we demonstrate that eukaryotic genomes have a high proportion of multigene families whose phylogenetic profile distributions are poor in presence-absence information content. This feature makes them prone to orthology mis-assignment and unsuited to standard profile-based prediction methods. Using CATH structural domain assignments from the Gene3D database for 13 complete eukaryotic genomes, we have developed a novel modification of the phylogenetic profiling method that uses genome copy number of each domain superfamily to predict functional relationships. In our approach, superfamilies are subclustered at ten levels of sequence identity-from 30% to 100%-and phylogenetic profiles built at each level. All the profiles are compared using normalised Euclidean distances to identify those with correlated changes in their domain copy number. We demonstrate that two protein families will "auto-tune" with strong co-evolutionary signals when their profiles are compared at the similarity levels that capture their functional relationship. Our method finds functional relationships that are not detectable by the conventional presence-absence profile comparisons, and it does not require a priori any fixed criteria to define orthologous genes.

Joint effects of density dependence and toxicant exposure on Drosophila melanogaster populations.

Risk assessment of environmental contaminants is usually based on experiments on well-fed individuals held at low population densities. However, field populations are often subject to resource limitation. Individuals who are already stressed by crowding or food limitation may show greater susceptibility to toxicants. But density dependence could also reduce population-level impacts as toxicant-related mortalities may reduce competition for resources. This study examines the joint effects of toxicants and food availability on populations of Drosophila melanogaster. The interactions between the effects of food limitation and toxicant stress were dose dependent and strongly influenced by toxicity mechanisms. In food-limited conditions, a compensatory effect often occurred, with toxicant exposure having a lower proportional impact than at higher food levels. This provides further evidence that density-dependent population processes can produce an assimilative capacity for the effects of toxicants. But synergistic food-toxicant effects were also common and the interaction often switched between synergistic and compensatory at different toxicant concentrations and food supplies. There is no simple "less-than-additive", "additive" or "more-than-additive" relationship between density and toxicant effects, even for a single toxicant.

Is saltmarsh restoration success constrained by matching natural environments or altered succession? A test using niche models.

Restored habitats, such as saltmarsh created through managed realignment, sometimes fail to meet targets for biological equivalence with natural reference sites. Understanding why this happens is important in order to improve restoration outcomes.Elevation in the tidal frame and sediment redox potential are major controls on the distribution of saltmarsh plants. We use niche models to characterize 10 species' responses to these, and test whether differences in species occurrence between restored and natural saltmarshes in the UK result from failure to recreate adequate environmental conditions.Six species occurred less frequently in recently restored marshes than natural marshes. Failure of restored marshes to achieve the elevation and redox conditions of natural marshes partially explained the underrepresentation of five of these species, but did not explain patterns of occurrence on older (>50 years) restored marshes.For all species, an effect of marsh age remained after controlling for differences in environmental conditions. This could be due to differences in successional mechanism between restored and natural marshes. In recently restored marshes, high-marsh species occurred lower in the tidal frame and low-marsh species occurred higher in the tidal frame than in natural marshes. This supports the hypothesis that competition is initially weaker in restored marshes, because of the availability of bare sediment across the whole tidal frame. Species that establish outside their normal realized niche, such as Atriplex portulacoides, may inhibit subsequent colonization of other species that occurred less frequently than expected on older restored marshes. Synthesis and applications. Niche models can be used to test whether abiotic differences between restored sites and their natural counterparts are responsible for discrepancies in species occurrence. In saltmarshes, simply replicating environmental conditions will not result in equivalent species occurrence.

A structural perspective on genome evolution.

Protein translations of over 100 complete genomes are now available. About half of these sequences can be provided with structural annotation, thereby enabling some profound insights into protein and pathway evolution. Whereas the major domain structure families are common to all kingdoms of life, these are combined in different ways in multidomain proteins to give various domain architectures that are specific to kingdoms or individual genomes, and contribute to the diverse phenotypes observed. These data argue for more targets in structural genomics initiatives and particularly for the selection of different domain architectures to gain better insights into protein functions.

Chlorophyll a fluorescence as a biomarker for rapid toxicity assessment.

Algal growth assays are the most frequently used methods to detect herbicide toxicity in environmental samples; however, these require several days to detect reductions in growth rate with adequate precision. Hence, a need exists for more rapid assays. Two in vivo chlorophyll a fluorescence assays, one using pulse-amplitude modulation (PAM) fluorescence and another based on fluorescence at 684 and 735 nm, detect the effects of photosystem (PS) II inhibitors (atrazine, diuron, and isoproturon) on Selenastrum capricornutum Printz only after 1 h and 30 min, respectively, of incubation. The median growth inhibition (IC50) could be predicted reliably from effects on three PAM parameters--maximal PSII quantum yield (phi(m)), operational quantum yield (phi'(m)), and nonphotochemical quenching--and from measurements of fluorescence at 684 and 735 nm. The effects of the PSI inhibitor paraquat dichloride, were smaller in magnitude and could be detected after a 24-h incubation. These two in vivo chlorophyll a fluorescence assays can thus provide reliable, rapid, and cost-effective tools to screen toxicity caused by PSII inhibitors. Neither of the two fluorescence assays could consistently predict the effects of nonphotosynthetic inhibitors (alachlor, metsulfuron methyl, and diclofop methyl).

Hydrobia ulvae feeding rates: A novel way to assess sediment toxicity.

Standard acute toxicity tests are widely used to assess contaminated sediments. However, such tests last 10 d or more and only provide information regarding lethality. Here, we present data concerning the use of a 28-d growth test and a 24-h test using feeding rate, as measured by egestion rate, of the marine snail Hydrobia ulvae. The test was used to assess the toxicity of estuarine sediments from a gradient of heavy metal contamination, and its sensitivity and ease of use were compared with those of 10-d tests using the amphipod crustacean Corophium volutator. Mortality of C. volutator and H. ulvae in 10-d lethal toxicity tests showed similar patterns of sensitivity. Lethality tests with both species showed no effects when carried out using sediments from a number of sites at which ecological impacts are known to occur. By contrast, growth over 28 d in H. ulvae was reduced at all sites where other studies have detected adverse ecological effects. Feeding rate after 24 h also was decreased at moderately contaminated sites where sediments were not acutely toxic, and it was a very good predictor of 28-d growth (r2 = 0.74). Both tests were straightforward to carry out, so H. ulvae has considerable potential as a test organism for chronic toxicity.

Phytochromes function as thermosensors in Arabidopsis.

Plants are responsive to temperature, and some species can distinguish differences of 1°C. In Arabidopsis, warmer temperature accelerates flowering and increases elongation growth (thermomorphogenesis). However, the mechanisms of temperature perception are largely unknown. We describe a major thermosensory role for the phytochromes (red light receptors) during the night. Phytochrome null plants display a constitutive warm-temperature response, and consistent with this, we show in this background that the warm-temperature transcriptome becomes derepressed at low temperatures. We found that phytochrome B (phyB) directly associates with the promoters of key target genes in a temperature-dependent manner. The rate of phyB inactivation is proportional to temperature in the dark, enabling phytochromes to function as thermal timers that integrate temperature information over the course of the night.

Identification and distribution of protein families in 120 completed genomes using Gene3D.

Using a new protocol, PFscape, we undertake a systematic identification of protein families and domain architectures in 120 complete genomes. PFscape clusters sequences into protein families using a Markov clustering algorithm (Enright et al., Nucleic Acids Res 2002;30:1575-1584) followed by complete linkage clustering according to sequence identity. Within each protein family, domains are recognized using a library of hidden Markov models comprising CATH structural and Pfam functional domains. Domain architectures are then determined using DomainFinder (Pearl et al., Protein Sci 2002;11:233-244) and the protein family and domain architecture data are amalgamated in the Gene3D database (Buchan et al., Genome Res 2002;12:503-514). Using Gene3D, we have investigated protein sequence space, the extent of structural annotation, and the distribution of different domain architectures in completed genomes from all kingdoms of life. As with earlier studies by other researchers, the distribution of domain families shows power-law behavior such that the largest 2,000 domain families can be mapped to approximately 70% of nonsingleton genome sequences; the remaining sequences are assigned to much smaller families. While approximately 50% of domain annotations within a genome are assigned to 219 universal domain families, a much smaller proportion (< 10%) of protein sequences are assigned to universal protein families. This supports the mosaic theory of evolution whereby domain duplication followed by domain shuffling gives rise to novel domain architectures that can expand the protein functional repertoire of an organism. Functional data (e.g. COG/KEGG/GO) integrated within Gene3D result in a comprehensive resource that is currently being used in structure genomics initiatives and can be accessed via http://www.biochem.ucl.ac.uk/bsm/cath/Gene3D/.

Survey of current protein family databases and their application in comparative, structural and functional genomics.

The last two decades have witnessed significant expansions in the databases storing information on the sequences and structures of proteins. This has led to the creation of many excellent protein family resources, which classify proteins according to their evolutionary relationship. These have allowed extensive insights into evolution and particularly how protein function mutates and evolves over time. Such analyses have greatly assisted the inheritance of functional annotations between experimentally characterised and uncharacterised genes. Moreover, the development of bioinformatics tools acts as a companion to the new technologies emerging in biology, such as transcriptomics and proteomics. The latter enable researchers to analyse gene expression profiles and interactions on a genome-wide scale, generating vast datasets of proteins, many of which include experimentally uncharacterised proteins. Protein family/function databases can be used to help interpret this data and allow us to benefit more fully from these technologies. This review aims to summarise the most popular sequence- and structure-based protein family databases. We also cover their application to comparative genomics and the functional annotation of the genomes.

RNA/DNA ratios as a sublethal endpoint for large-scale toxicity tests with the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans.

Caenorhabditis elegans increasingly is attractive as a toxicity test organism, particularly as a model system to study mechanisms of toxicity at a molecular level and the way that these lead to whole organism and population level effects. Inhibitions of growth, reproduction, movement, and feeding rate all have been proposed as sublethal toxicity endpoints. These endpoints are more sensitive than 24-h acute toxicity endpoints, but assays are much more time consuming, making them difficult to use in mass screening. The RNA/DNA ratio, after 48-h exposure to metals, has median effective concentration (EC50) values of 0.05, 0.6, 6.1, and 35 mg/L for Cu, Pb, Cd, and Zn, respectively. This makes it a slightly more sensitive toxicity endpoint than reduction of individual growth after 72-h exposure to the same concentrations. This facilitates the near-simultaneous assessment of sublethal toxicity in many nematode samples. The constant cell number of C. elegans means that different stages in the life history have very different RNA/DNA ratios even in the absence of toxins. So, RNA/DNA ratios can be used only on prereproductive, age-synchronized cultures. Assessing the sublethal toxicity of metals to C. elegans shows that it is sensitive particularly to Cu.

The stress-associated acetylcholinesterase variant AChE-R is expressed in human CD34(+) hematopoietic progenitors and its C-terminal peptide ARP promotes their proliferation.

OBJECTIVE: Hematopoietic stress responses involve increases in leukocyte and platelet counts, implying the existence of stress responsive factors that modulate hematopoiesis. Acetylcholinesterase (AChE) is expressed in mammalian neurons and hematopoietic cells. In brain, it responds to stress by mRNA overexpression and alternative splicing, yielding the rare stress-associated "readthrough" AChE-R variant protein. This led us to explore the hematopoietic involvement of AChE-R and its cleavable C-terminal peptide ARP. MATERIALS AND METHODS: AChE mRNA variants were labeled in CD34(+) hematopoietic progenitor cells by in situ hybridization. ARP expression was detected by multicolor flow cytometry. Bromo-deoxyuracil incorporation and viable cell counts served to evaluate the proliferative effects of ARP and suppressive effects of the AChE antisense oligonucleotide AS1 on CD34(+) cells. RESULTS: The distal enhancer, proximal promoter, and first intron of the human AChE gene include consensus binding sites for hematopoietically active and stress-induced transcription factors. CD34(+) cells from human cord blood were found to express all three variant AChE mRNAs, having different intracellular distributions. ARP was found in 5 to 15% of adult peripheral blood, bone marrow, and fetal CD34(+) cells (both committed CD38(+) and uncommitted CD38(-)) and in acute myeloid leukemia blasts. Externally supplied ARP by itself facilitated the proliferation of CD34(+) cells in an antisense suppressible manner. When combined with early-acting cytokines, ARP enhanced survival and expansion of CD34(+) cells up to 28 days in culture. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support ARP, the C-terminal peptide of AChE-R, as a new hematopoietic growth factor that may promote the myelopoietic expansion and thrombopoiesis characteristic of stress and may be used to enhance the efficiency of ex vivo expansion for bone marrow transplantation.

Stability and succession of the rhizosphere microbiota depends upon plant type and soil composition.

We examined succession of the rhizosphere microbiota of three model plants (Arabidopsis, Medicago and Brachypodium) in compost and sand and three crops (Brassica, Pisum and Triticum) in compost alone. We used serial inoculation of 24 independent replicate microcosms over three plant generations for each plant/soil combination. Stochastic variation between replicates was surprisingly weak and by the third generation, replicate microcosms for each plant had communities that were very similar to each other but different to those of other plants or unplanted soil. Microbiota diversity remained high in compost, but declined drastically in sand, with bacterial opportunists and putative autotrophs becoming dominant. These dramatic differences indicate that many microbes cannot thrive on plant exudates alone and presumably also require carbon sources and/or nutrients from soil. Arabidopsis had the weakest influence on its microbiota and in compost replicate microcosms converged on three alternative community compositions rather than a single distinctive community. Organisms selected in rhizospheres can have positive or negative effects. Two abundant bacteria are shown to promote plant growth, but in Brassica the pathogen Olpidium brassicae came to dominate the fungal community. So plants exert strong selection on the rhizosphere microbiota but soil composition is critical to its stability. microbial succession/ plant-microbe interactions/rhizosphere microbiota/selection.

Seasonal shift in timing of vernalization as an adaptation to extreme winter.

The requirement for vernalization, a need for prolonged cold to trigger flowering, aligns reproductive development with favorable spring conditions. In Arabidopsis thaliana vernalization depends on the cold-induced epigenetic silencing of the floral repressor locus FLC. Extensive natural variation in vernalization response is associated with A. thaliana accessions collected from different geographical regions. Here, we analyse natural variation for vernalization temperature requirement in accessions, including those from the northern limit of the A. thaliana range. Vernalization required temperatures above 0°C and was still relatively effective at 14°C in all the accessions. The different accessions had characteristic vernalization temperature profiles. One Northern Swedish accession showed maximum vernalization at 8°C, both at the level of flowering time and FLC chromatin silencing. Historical temperature records predicted all accessions would vernalize in autumn in N. Sweden, a prediction we validated in field transplantation experiments. The vernalization response of the different accessions was monitored over three intervals in the field and found to match that when the average field temperature was given as a constant condition. The vernalization temperature range of 0-14°C meant all accessions fully vernalized before snowfall in N. Sweden. These findings have important implications for understanding the molecular basis of adaptation and for predicting the consequences of climate change on flowering time.