Research priorities in regional anaesthesia: where should we focus?

Using a modified Delphi technique, an international group of regional anaesthetists generated a list of top research priorities in regional anaesthesia. The list of unanswered research questions was created from a questionnaire completed by >500 anaesthetists and distilled into 11 priorities grouped into four themes: clinical practice and efficacy, pain management, technology and equipment, and training and assessment.

Phenogrouping heart failure with preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction using electronic health record data.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) with preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction includes a heterogenous group of patients. Reclassification into distinct phenogroups to enable targeted interventions is a priority. This study aimed to identify distinct phenogroups, and compare phenogroup characteristics and outcomes, from electronic health record data. METHODS: 2,187 patients admitted to five UK hospitals with a diagnosis of HF and a left ventricular ejection fraction ≥ 40% were identified from the NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative database. Partition-based, model-based, and density-based machine learning clustering techniques were applied. Cox Proportional Hazards and Fine-Gray competing risks models were used to compare outcomes (all-cause mortality and hospitalisation for HF) across phenogroups. RESULTS: Three phenogroups were identified: (1) Younger, predominantly female patients with high prevalence of cardiometabolic and coronary disease; (2) More frail patients, with higher rates of lung disease and atrial fibrillation; (3) Patients characterised by systemic inflammation and high rates of diabetes and renal dysfunction. Survival profiles were distinct, with an increasing risk of all-cause mortality from phenogroups 1 to 3 (p < 0.001). Phenogroup membership significantly improved survival prediction compared to conventional factors. Phenogroups were not predictive of hospitalisation for HF. CONCLUSIONS: Applying unsupervised machine learning to routinely collected electronic health record data identified phenogroups with distinct clinical characteristics and unique survival profiles.

Risk Prediction Models for Long-Term Survival after Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: The reporting of alternative postoperative measures of quality after cardiac surgery is becoming increasingly important as in-hospital mortality rates continue to decline. This study aims to systematically review and assess risk models designed to predict long-term outcomes after cardiac surgery. METHODS: The MEDLINE and Embase databases were searched for articles published between 1990 and 2020. Studies developing or validating risk prediction models for long-term outcomes after cardiac surgery were included. Data were extracted using checklists for critical appraisal and systematic review of prediction modeling studies. RESULTS: Eleven studies were identified for inclusion in the review, of which nine studies described the development of long-term risk prediction models after cardiac surgery and two were external validation studies. A total of 70 predictors were included across the nine models. The most frequently used predictors were age (n = 9), peripheral vascular disease (n = 8), renal disease (n = 8), and pulmonary disease (n = 8). Despite all models demonstrating acceptable performance on internal validation, only two models underwent external validation, both of which performed poorly. CONCLUSION: Nine risk prediction models predicting long-term mortality after cardiac surgery have been identified in this review. Statistical issues with model development, limited inclusion of outcomes beyond 5 years of follow-up, and a lack of external validation studies means that none of the models identified can be recommended for use in contemporary cardiac surgery. Further work is needed either to successfully externally validate existing models or to develop new models. Newly developed models should aim to use standardized long-term specific reproducible outcome measures.

A systematic review of cardiac surgery clinical prediction models that include intra-operative variables.

BACKGROUND: Most cardiac surgery clinical prediction models (CPMs) are developed using pre-operative variables to predict post-operative outcomes. Some CPMs are developed with intra-operative variables, but none are widely used. The objective of this systematic review was to identify CPMs with intra-operative variables that predict short-term outcomes following adult cardiac surgery. METHODS: Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched from inception to December 2022, for studies developing a CPM with at least one intra-operative variable. Data were extracted using a critical appraisal framework and bias assessment tool. Model performance was analysed using discrimination and calibration measures. RESULTS: A total of 24 models were identified. Frequent predicted outcomes were acute kidney injury (9/24 studies) and peri-operative mortality (6/24 studies). Frequent pre-operative variables were age (18/24 studies) and creatinine/eGFR (18/24 studies). Common intra-operative variables were cardiopulmonary bypass time (16/24 studies) and transfusion (13/24 studies). Model discrimination was acceptable for all internally validated models (AUC 0.69-0.91). Calibration was poor (15/24 studies) or unreported (8/24 studies). Most CPMs were at a high or indeterminate risk of bias (23/24 models). The added value of intra-operative variables was assessed in six studies with statistically significantly improved discrimination demonstrated in two. CONCLUSION: Weak reporting and methodological limitations may restrict wider applicability and adoption of existing CPMs that include intra-operative variables. There is some evidence that CPM discrimination is improved with the addition of intra-operative variables. Further work is required to understand the role of intra-operative CPMs in the management of cardiac surgery patients.

Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial of 60-Day Percutaneous Peripheral Nerve Stimulation Treatment Indicates Relief of Persistent Postoperative Pain, and Improved Function After Knee Replacement.

OBJECTIVES: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is an effective surgery for end-stage knee osteoarthritis, but chronic postoperative pain and reduced function affect up to 20% of patients who undergo such surgery. There are limited treatment options, but percutaneous peripheral nerve stimulation (PNS) is a promising nonopioid treatment option for chronic, persistent postoperative pain. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of a 60-day percutaneous PNS treatment in a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial for treating persistent postoperative pain after TKA. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with postoperative pain after knee replacement were screened for this postmarket, institutional review board-approved, prospectively registered (NCT04341948) trial. Subjects were randomized to receive either active PNS or placebo (sham) stimulation. Subjects and a designated evaluator were blinded to group assignments. Subjects in both groups underwent ultrasound-guided placement of percutaneous fine-wire coiled leads targeting the femoral and sciatic nerves on the leg with postoperative pain. Leads were indwelling for eight weeks, and the primary efficacy outcome compared the proportion of subjects in each group reporting ≥50% reduction in average pain relative to baseline during weeks five to eight. Functional outcomes (6-minute walk test; 6MWT and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index) and quality of life (Patient Global Impression of Change) also were evaluated at end of treatment (EOT). RESULTS: A greater proportion of subjects in the PNS groups (60%; 12/20) than in the placebo (sham) group (24%; 5/21) responded with ≥50% pain relief relative to baseline (p = 0.028) during the primary endpoint (weeks 5-8). Subjects in the PNS group also walked a significantly greater distance at EOT than did those in the placebo (sham) group (6MWT; +47% vs -9% change from baseline; p = 0.048, n = 18 vs n = 20 completed the test, respectively). Prospective follow-up to 12 months is ongoing. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that percutaneous PNS decreases persistent pain, which leads to improved functional outcomes after TKA at EOT.

2023 American Society of Anesthesiologists Practice Guidelines for Monitoring and Antagonism of Neuromuscular Blockade: A Report by the American Society of Anesthesiologists Task Force on Neuromuscular Blockade.

These practice guidelines provide evidence-based recommendations on the management of neuromuscular monitoring and antagonism of neuromuscular blocking agents during and after general anesthesia. The guidance focuses primarily on the type and site of monitoring and the process of antagonizing neuromuscular blockade to reduce residual neuromuscular blockade.

Outcomes after Conversion from Video-Assisted Thoracoscopic Lobectomy to Thoracotomy.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer resections are increasingly being performed via video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS). Conversion to thoracotomy can occur for many reasons and may affect outcomes. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of VATS conversion on short- and mid-term outcomes and identify reasons for conversion. METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing lobectomy for primary non-small cell lung cancer between 2012 and 2019 in a single UK center were included. Primary outcomes were 90-day mortality, intraoperative conversion, and overall survival. Reasons for conversion were defined as bleeding or nonbleeding. Outcomes were compared between groups using univariable analysis. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for conversion. RESULTS: A total of 2,622 patients were included with 20.6% (n = 541) completing surgery via VATS and 79.4% (n = 2,081) via thoracotomy. The rate of completed VATS surgery increased significantly over time (2012: 6.9%, 2019: 55.1%, p < 0.001). Overall conversion rate was 14.3% (n = 90/631) and has reduced significantly over time (p < 0.001). The rate of conversion due to intraoperative bleeding was 31.1% (n = 28/90). Obesity, male sex, and stage III disease were independent risk factors for conversion. The 90-day mortality rate after conversion was not significantly different from the rate for planned thoracotomy (3.3 vs. 3.4%, p = 0.987). There was no significant difference in overall survival between patients experiencing intraoperative conversion and those undergoing planned thoracotomy (p = 0.135). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates comparable outcomes for patients undergoing conversion from VATS to those undergoing planned surgery via thoracotomy. It remains unclear if reason for conversion is associated with outcomes.

Custodiol cardioplegia for temporary mechanical circulatory support.

Several patients requiring biventricular mechanical circulatory support in the acute setting will not be candidates for less invasive advanced heart failure therapies not requiring median sternotomy. Temporary biventricular assist device may provide reliable short term support bridging patients to recovery or further advanced treatments. However, this exposes patients to increased risk of reoperation due to bleeding and further exposure to blood products. This article outlines the practical details necessary in performing this technique while minimizing potential complications.

Adequacy of Mediastinal Lymph Node Sampling in Patients With Lung Cancer Undergoing Lung Resection.

BACKGROUND: Intraoperative mediastinal lymph node sampling (MLNS) is a crucial component of lung cancer surgery. Whilst several sampling strategies have been clearly defined in guidelines from international organizations, reports of adherence to these guidelines are lacking. We aimed to assess our center's adherence to guidelines and determine whether adequacy of sampling is associated with survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A single-center retrospective review of consecutive patients undergoing lung resection for primary lung cancer between January 2013 and December 2018 was undertaken. Sampling adequacy was assessed against standards outlined in the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer 2009 guidelines. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to assess the impact of specific variables on adequacy and of specific variables on overall survival, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 2380 patients were included in the study. Overall adequacy was 72.1% (n= 1717). Adherence improved from 44.8% in 2013 to 85.0% in 2018 (P< 0.001). Undergoing a right-sided resection increased the odds of adequate MLNS on multivariable logistic regression (odds ratio 1.666, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.385-2.003, P< 0.001). Inadequate MLNS was not significantly associated with reduced overall survival on log rank analysis (P= 0.340) or after adjustment with multivariable Cox proportional hazards (hazard ratio 0.839, 95% CI 0.643-1.093). CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to standards improved significantly over time and was significantly higher for right-sided resections. We found no evidence of an association between adequate MLNS and overall survival in this cohort. A pressing need remains for the introduction of national guidelines defining acceptable performance.

The Impact of Initial Postoperative Destination on Unplanned Critical Care Admissions After Lung Resection.

OBJECTIVES: Despite an increasing proportion of patients undergoing lung resection being managed postoperatively in a ward-based environment, studies analyzing the impact of initial postoperative destination (IPD) on perioperative outcomes and unplanned critical care admission (UCCA) are lacking. DESIGN: A single-center retrospective review. SETTING: A cardiothoracic surgery center in the Northwest of England. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3,841 patients between 2012 and 2018. INTERVENTIONS: All patients underwent lung resection. Patients were classified as either IPD ward or IPD critical care. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Outcomes assessed included in-hospital and 90-day mortality and UCCA. Differences in mortality rates between groups were assessed using the chi-square test. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify variables independently associated with 90-day mortality and UCCA. In total, 23.8% (n = 913) of patients went to critical care as their IPD. Overall in-hospital mortality was 1.6% (n = 62), and 90-day mortality was 2.9% (n = 112). The rate of UCCA was 10.5% (n = 404) and was significantly higher for IPD ward patients compared to IPD critical care patients (11.9% v 6.2%, p < 0.001). The 90-day mortality rates after UCCA were 5.2% (IPD ward) and 19.3% (IPD critical care) (p < 0.001). Advanced age, worse pulmonary function, IPD ward, and timing of surgery were all independently associated with UCCA. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients undergoing lung resection can be managed safely postoperatively in a ward-based environment. Short-term mortality is higher after UCCA, with patients who experience readmission to critical care at the highest risk of death. Patients should receive additional monitoring immediately following discharge from critical care.

Preoperative Anemia is Associated With Worse Long-Term Survival After Lung Cancer Resection: A Multicenter Cohort Study of 5,029 Patients.

OBJECTIVES: Although some evidence to suggest an association between preoperative anemia and reduced overall survival exists, contemporary studies investigating the impact of preoperative anemia on outcomes after resection for primary lung cancer are lacking. DESIGN: A multicenter retrospective review. SETTING: Two tertiary cardiothoracic surgery centers in the Northwest of England. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5,029 patients between 2012 and 2018. INTERVENTIONS: All patients underwent lung resection for primary lung cancer. Patients were classified as anemic based on the World Health Organization definition. Men with hemoglobin <130 g/L and women with hemoglobin <120 g/L were considered to be anemic. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Outcomes assessed included perioperative mortality, 90-day mortality, and overall survival. Multivariate logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to assess the impact of preoperative anemia on 90-day mortality and overall survival, respectively. Overall, preoperatively, 24.0% (n = 1207) of patients were anemic. The 90-day mortality for anemic and nonanemic patients was 5.6% and 3.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). After multivariate adjustment, preoperative anemia was not associated with increased 90-day mortality. However, a log-rank analysis demonstrated reduced overall survival for anemic patients (p < 0.001). After multivariate adjustment, preoperative anemia was found to be independently associated with reduced overall survival (hazard ratio 1.287, 95% confidence interval 1.141-1.451, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although anemia was not an independent predictor of short-term outcomes, it was independently associated with significantly reduced survival for patients undergoing resection for lung cancer. Further work is required to understand why anemia reduces long-term survival and whether pathways for anemic patients can be adapted to improve long-term outcomes.

Bezafibrate induces autophagy and improves hepatic lipid metabolism in glycogen storage disease type Ia.

Glucose-6-phosphatase α (G6Pase) deficiency, also known as von Gierke's Disease or Glycogen storage disease type Ia (GSD Ia), is characterized by decreased ability of the liver to convert glucose-6-phosphate to glucose leading to glycogen accumulation and hepatosteatosis. Long-term complications of GSD Ia include hepatic adenomas and carcinomas, in association with the suppression of autophagy in the liver. The G6pc-/- mouse and canine models for GSD Ia were treated with the pan-peroxisomal proliferator-activated receptor agonist, bezafibrate, to determine the drug's effect on liver metabolism and function. Hepatic glycogen and triglyceride concentrations were measured and western blotting was performed to investigate pathways affected by the treatment. Bezafibrate decreased liver triglyceride and glycogen concentrations and partially reversed the autophagy defect previously demonstrated in GSD Ia models. Changes in medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase expression and acylcarnintine flux suggested that fatty acid oxidation was increased and fatty acid synthase expression associated with lipogenesis was decreased in G6pc-/- mice treated with bezafibrate. In summary, bezafibrate induced autophagy in the liver while increasing fatty acid oxidation and decreasing lipogenesis in G6pc-/- mice. It represents a potential therapy for glycogen overload and hepatosteatosis associated with GSD Ia, with beneficial effects that have implications for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Predicting Readmission to Intensive Care After Cardiac Surgery Within Index Hospitalization: A Systematic Review.

Readmission to the cardiac intensive care unit after cardiac surgery has significant implications for both patients and healthcare providers. Identifying patients at risk of readmission potentially could improve outcomes. The objective of this systematic review was to identify risk factors and clinical prediction models for readmission within a single hospitalization to intensive care after cardiac surgery. PubMed, MEDLINE, and EMBASE databases were searched to identify candidate articles. Only studies that used multivariate analyses to identify independent predictors were included. There were 25 studies and five risk prediction models identified. The overall rate of readmission pooled across the included studies was 4.9%. In all 25 studies, in-hospital mortality and duration of hospital stay were higher in patients who experienced readmission. Recurring predictors for readmission were preoperative renal failure, age >70, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction <30%, type and urgency of surgery, prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass time, prolonged postoperative ventilation, postoperative anemia, and neurologic dysfunction. The majority of readmissions occurred due to respiratory and cardiac complications. Four models were identified for predicting readmission, with one external validation study. As all models developed to date had limitations, further work on larger datasets is required to develop clinically useful models to identify patients at risk of readmission to the cardiac intensive care unit after cardiac surgery.

A Novel Patient-Specific Model for Predicting Severe Oliguria; Development and Comparison With Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes Acute Kidney Injury Classification.

OBJECTIVES: The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes urine output criteria for acute kidney injury lack specificity for identifying patients at risk of adverse renal outcomes. The objective was to develop a model that analyses hourly urine output values in real time to identify those at risk of developing severe oliguria. DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study utilizing prospectively collected data. SETTING: A cardiac ICU in the United Kingdom. PATIENTS: Patients undergoing cardiac surgery between January 2013 and November 2017. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: Patients were randomly assigned to development (n = 981) and validation (n = 2,389) datasets. A patient-specific, dynamic Bayesian model was developed to predict future urine output on an hourly basis. Model discrimination and calibration for predicting severe oliguria (< 0.3 mL/kg/hr for 6 hr) occurring within the next 12 hours were tested in the validation dataset at multiple time points. Patients with a high risk of severe oliguria (p > 0.8) were identified and their outcomes were compared with those for low-risk patients and for patients who met the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes urine output criterion for acute kidney injury. Model discrimination was excellent at all time points (area under the curve > 0.9 for all). Calibration of the model's predictions was also excellent. After adjustment using multivariable logistic regression, patients in the high-risk group were more likely to require renal replacement therapy (odds ratio, 10.4; 95% CI, 5.9-18.1), suffer prolonged hospital stay (odds ratio, 4.4; 95% CI, 3.0-6.4), and die in hospital (odds ratio, 6.4; 95% CI, 2.8-14.0) (p < 0.001 for all). Outcomes for those identified as high risk by the model were significantly worse than for patients who met the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes urine output criterion. CONCLUSIONS: This novel, patient-specific model identifies patients at increased risk of severe oliguria. Classification according to model predictions outperformed the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes urine output criterion. As the new model identifies patients at risk before severe oliguria develops it could potentially facilitate intervention to improve patient outcomes.

Are Serum Potassium and Magnesium Levels Associated with Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery?

OBJECTIVES: Potassium and magnesium are frequently administered after cardiac surgery to reduce the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). The evidence for this practice is unclear. This study was designed to evaluate the relationship between serum potassium and magnesium levels and AF after cardiac surgery. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: A cardiac intensive care unit in the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: Patients undergoing cardiac surgery between January 2013 and November 2017. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Cardiac rhythm was assessed using continuous electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring in 3,068 patients on the cardiac intensive care unit. Associations between serum potassium and magnesium concentrations extracted from hospital databases and postoperative AF were assessed using univariable and multivariable analyses. The association between electrolyte supplementation therapy and AF was also analyzed. AF developed within 72 hours of cardiac surgery in 545 (17.8%) of the 3,068 patients. After adjusting for logistic EuroSCORE, surgery type, cardiopulmonary bypass time and age, mean serum potassium concentration <4.5 mmol/L was associated with an increased risk of AF (odds ratio [OR] 1.43 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17-1.75), p < 0.001). Mean magnesium concentration <1.0 mmol/L was not associated with an increased risk of AF (OR 0.89, 0.71-1.13, p = 0.342), but the administration of magnesium was associated with increased risk of developing AF (OR 1.61, 1.33-1.96, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Maintaining a serum potassium concentration ≥4.5 mmol/L after cardiac surgery may reduce the incidence of postoperative AF. Magnesium supplementation was associated with an increased risk of postoperative AF. Prospective randomized trials are required to clarify these associations.

A Feasibility Study of Percutaneous Peripheral Nerve Stimulation for the Treatment of Postoperative Pain Following Total Knee Arthroplasty.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of the present feasibility study was to investigate the use of a new treatment modality-percutaneous peripheral nerve stimulation (PNS)-in controlling the often severe and long-lasting pain following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). METHODS: For patients undergoing a primary, unilateral TKA, both femoral and sciatic open-coil percutaneous leads (SPR Therapeutics, Cleveland, OH) were placed up to seven days prior to surgery using ultrasound guidance. The leads were connected to external stimulators and used both at home and in the hospital for up to six weeks total. RESULTS: In six of seven subjects (86%), the average of daily pain scores across the first two weeks was <4 on the 0-10 Numeric Rating Scale for pain. A majority of subjects (four out of seven; 57%) had ceased opioid use within the first week (median time to opioid cessation for all subjects was six days). Gross sensory/motor function was maintained during stimulation, enabling stimulation during physical therapy and activities of daily living. At 12 weeks following surgery, six of seven subjects had improved by >10% on the Six-Minute Walk Test compared to preoperative levels, and WOMAC scores improved by an average of 85% compared to before surgery. No falls, motor block, or lead infections were reported. CONCLUSIONS: This feasibility study suggests that for TKA, ultrasound-guided percutaneous PNS is feasible in the immediate perioperative period and may provide analgesia without the undesirable systemic effects of opioids or quadriceps weakness induced by local anesthetics-based peripheral nerve blocks.

Temporary Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation: Ten-Year Experience at a Cardiac Transplant Center.

OBJECTIVE: Advances in extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) have enabled rapid deployment in a wide range of clinical settings. We report our experience with venoarterial (VA) ECMO in adult patients over 10 years and aim to identify predictors of mortality. DESIGN: This is a retrospective analysis of all adult patients undergoing VA ECMO at a tertiary care center from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2013. RESULTS: A total of 224 consecutive cases were reviewed. Eighty (35.7%) patients survived to discharge and 144 (64.3%) patients died. Patients requiring ECMO for heart transplant graft failure had lower mortality (51.6%) compared to all other etiologies (69.1%; P = .02). Forty-two percent (94 of the 224) of the patients required cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) preceding ECMO and had higher rate of in-hospital mortality (74.5%) compared with patients without cardiac arrest (56.9%; P = .01). Patients with less than 30 minutes of CPR had a mortality rate of 40.0% compared to 91.4% for CPR > 30 minutes ( P = .001). In all, 24.1% of patients (54 of the 224) experienced ECMO-associated complications without significant increase in mortality, and 22.3% (50 of the 224) of the patients were transitioned to ventricular assist devices (VADs) or transplant. Patients bridged to a VAD including left ventricular assist devices and biventricular assist devices had a mortality rate of 56.1% versus 22.2% when bridged directly to transplant ( P = .01). Paradoxically, patients with an ejection fraction (EF) > 35% had a higher mortality compared to patients with an EF < 35% (75.3% vs 49.4%, respectively, P = .001). CONCLUSION: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in patients with heart transplant graft failure had the best outcome. In patients who had cardiac arrest, prolonged CPR > 30 minutes was associated with very high mortality. Paradoxically, patients with EF > 35% had a higher mortality than patients with EF < 35%, likely reflecting patients with diastolic heart failure or noncardiac causes necessitating ECMO. For transplant candidates, direct bridge from ECMO to transplant could achieve a very good outcome.

Validation of Three Postoperative Risk Prediction Models for Intensive Care Unit Mortality after Cardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Several cardiac surgery risk prediction models based on postoperative data have been developed. However, unlike preoperative cardiac surgery risk prediction models, postoperative models are rarely externally validated or utilized by clinicians. The objective of this study was to externally validate three postoperative risk prediction models for intensive care unit (ICU) mortality after cardiac surgery. METHODS: The logistic Cardiac Surgery Scores (logCASUS), Rapid Clinical Evaluation (RACE), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were calculated over the first 7 postoperative days for consecutive adult cardiac surgery patients between January 2013 and May 2015. Model discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test, calibration plots, and observed to expected ratios. Recalibration of the models was performed. RESULTS: A total of 2255 patients were included with an ICU mortality rate of 1.8%. Discrimination for all three models on each postoperative day was good with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of >0.8. Generally, RACE and logCASUS had better discrimination than SOFA. Calibration of the RACE score was better than logCASUS, but ratios of observed to expected mortality for both were generally <0.65. Locally recalibrated SOFA, logCASUS and RACE models all performed well. CONCLUSION: All three models demonstrated good discrimination for the first 7 days after cardiac surgery. After recalibration, logCASUS and RACE scores appear to be most useful for daily risk prediction after cardiac surgery. If appropriately calibrated, postoperative cardiac surgery risk prediction models have the potential to be useful tools after cardiac surgery.

The KDIGO acute kidney injury guidelines for cardiac surgery patients in critical care: a validation study.

BACKGROUND: The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) guidelines assign the same stage of AKI to patients whether they fulfil urine output criteria, serum creatinine criteria or both criteria for that stage. This study explores the validity of the KDIGO guidelines as a tool to stratify the risk of adverse outcomes in cardiac surgery patients. METHODS: Prospective data from consecutive adult patients admitted to the cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) following cardiac surgery between January 2013 and May 2015 were analysed. Patients were assigned to groups based on the criteria they met for each stage of AKI according to the KDIGO guidelines. Short and mid-term outcomes were compared between these groups. RESULTS: A total of 2267 patients were included with 772 meeting criteria for AKI-1 and 222 meeting criteria for AKI-2. After multivariable adjustment, patients meeting both urine output and creatinine criteria for AKI-1 were more likely to experience prolonged CICU stay (OR 4.9, 95%CI 3.3-7.4, p < 0.01) and more likely to require renal replacement therapy (OR 10.5, 95%CI 5.5-21.9, p < 0.01) than those meeting only the AKI-1 urine output criterion. Patients meeting both urine output and creatinine criteria for AKI-1 were at an increased risk of mid-term mortality compared to those diagnosed with AKI-1 by urine output alone (HR 2.8, 95%CI 1.6-4.8, p < 0.01). Patients meeting both urine output and creatinine criteria for AKI-2 were more likely to experience prolonged CICU stay (OR 16.0, 95%CI 3.2-292.0, p < 0.01) or require RRT (OR 11.0, 95%CI 4.2-30.9, p < 0.01) than those meeting only the urine output criterion. Patients meeting both urine output and creatinine criteria for AKI-2 were at a significantly increased risk of mid-term mortality compared to those diagnosed with AKI-2 by urine output alone (HR 3.6, 95%CI 1.4-9.3, p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Patients diagnosed with the same stage of AKI by different KDIGO criteria following cardiac surgery have significantly different short and mid-term outcomes. The KDIGO criteria need to be revisited before they can be used to stratify reliably the severity of AKI in cardiac surgery patients. The utility of the criteria also needs to be explored in other settings.