RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Travel-related strategies to reduce the spread of COVID-19 evolved rapidly in response to changes in the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 and newly available tools for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Modeling is an important methodology to investigate the range of outcomes that could occur from different disease containment strategies. METHODS: We examined 43 articles published from December 2019 through September 2022 that used modeling to evaluate travel-related COVID-19 containment strategies. We extracted and synthesized data regarding study objectives, methods, outcomes, populations, settings, strategies, and costs. We used a standardized approach to evaluate each analysis according to 26 criteria for modeling quality and rigor. RESULTS: The most frequent approaches included compartmental modeling to examine quarantine, isolation, or testing. Early in the pandemic, the goal was to prevent travel-related COVID-19 cases with a focus on individual-level outcomes and assessing strategies such as travel restrictions, quarantine without testing, social distancing, and on-arrival PCR testing. After the development of diagnostic tests and vaccines, modeling studies projected population-level outcomes and investigated these tools to limit COVID-19 spread. Very few published studies included rapid antigen screening strategies, costs, explicit model calibration, or critical evaluation of the modeling approaches. CONCLUSION: Future modeling analyses should leverage open-source data, improve the transparency of modeling methods, incorporate newly available prevention, diagnostics, and treatments, and include costs and cost-effectiveness so that modeling analyses can be informative to address future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and other emerging infectious diseases (e.g., mpox and Ebola) for travel-related health policies.
RESUMO
Background: For persons with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis, the guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend collecting 3 respiratory specimens 8 to 24 hours apart for acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear and culture, in addition to 1 nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT). However, data supporting this approach are limited. Our objective was to estimate the performance of 1, 2, or 3 AFB smears with or without NAATs to detect pulmonary tuberculosis in a low-prevalence setting. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of hospitalized persons at 8 Massachusetts acute care facilities who underwent mycobacterial culture on 1 or more respiratory specimens between July 2016 and December 2022. We evaluated percentage positivity and yield on serial AFB smears and NAATs among people with growth of Mycobacterium tuberculosis on mycobacterial cultures. Results: Among 104 participants with culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis, the first AFB smear was positive in 41 cases (39%). A second AFB smear was positive in 11 (22%) of the 49 cases in which it was performed. No third AFB smears were positive following 2 initial negative smears. Of 52 smear-negative cases, 36 had a NAAT performed, leading to 23 additional diagnoses. Overall sensitivity to detect tuberculosis prior to culture positivity was higher in any strategy involving 1 or 2 NAATs (74%-79%), even without AFB smears, as compared with 3 smears alone (60%). Conclusions: Tuberculosis diagnostic testing with 2 AFB smears offered the same yield as 3 AFB smears while potentially reducing laboratory burden and duration of airborne infection isolation. Use of 1 or 2 NAATs increased sensitivity to detect culture-positive pulmonary tuberculosis when added to AFB smear-based diagnostic testing alone.