Climate change winners and losers among North American bumblebees.

Mounting evidence suggests that climate change, agricultural intensification and disease are impacting bumblebee health and contributing to species' declines. Identifying how these factors impact insect communities at large spatial and temporal scales is difficult, partly because species may respond in different ways. Further, the necessary data must span large spatial and temporal scales, which usually means they comprise aggregated, presence-only records collected using numerous methods (e.g. diversity surveys, educational collections, citizen-science projects, standardized ecological surveys). Here, we use occupancy models, which explicitly correct for biases in the species observation process, to quantify the effect of changes in temperature, precipitation and floral resources on bumblebee site occupancy over the past 12 decades in North America. We find no evidence of genus-wide declines in site occupancy, but do find that occupancy is strongly related to temperature, and is only weakly related to precipitation or floral resources. We also find that more species are likely to be climate change 'losers' than 'winners' and that this effect is primarily associated with changing temperature. Importantly, all trends were highly species-specific, highlighting that genus or community-wide measures may not reflect diverse species-specific patterns that are critical in guiding allocation of conservation resources.

A process-based metacommunity framework linking local and regional scale community ecology.

The metacommunity concept has the potential to integrate local and regional dynamics within a general community ecology framework. To this end, the concept must move beyond the discrete archetypes that have largely defined it (e.g. neutral vs. species sorting) and better incorporate local scale species interactions and coexistence mechanisms. Here, we present a fundamental reconception of the framework that explicitly links local coexistence theory to the spatial processes inherent to metacommunity theory, allowing for a continuous range of competitive community dynamics. These dynamics emerge from the three underlying processes that shape ecological communities: (1) density-independent responses to abiotic conditions, (2) density-dependent biotic interactions and (3) dispersal. Stochasticity is incorporated in the demographic realisation of each of these processes. We formalise this framework using a simulation model that explores a wide range of competitive metacommunity dynamics by varying the strength of the underlying processes. Using this model and framework, we show how existing theories, including the traditional metacommunity archetypes, are linked by this common set of processes. We then use the model to generate new hypotheses about how the three processes combine to interactively shape diversity, functioning and stability within metacommunities.

Towards a multi-trophic extension of metacommunity ecology.

Metacommunity theory provides an understanding of how spatial processes determine the structure and function of communities at local and regional scales. Although metacommunity theory has considered trophic dynamics in the past, it has been performed idiosyncratically with a wide selection of possible dynamics. Trophic metacommunity theory needs a synthesis of a few influential axis to simplify future predictions and tests. We propose an extension of metacommunity ecology that addresses these shortcomings by incorporating variability among trophic levels in 'spatial use properties'. We define 'spatial use properties' as a set of traits (dispersal, migration, foraging and spatial information processing) that set the spatial and temporal scales of organismal movement, and thus scales of interspecific interactions. Progress towards a synthetic predictive framework can be made by (1) documenting patterns of spatial use properties in natural food webs and (2) using theory and experiments to test how trophic structure in spatial use properties affects metacommunity dynamics.

Prey body mass and richness underlie the persistence of a top predator.

Predators and prey often differ in body mass. The ratio of predator to prey body mass influences the predator's functional response (how consumption varies with prey density), and therefore, the strength and stability of the predator-prey interaction. The persistence of food chains is maximized when prey species are neither too big nor too small relative to their predator. Nonetheless, we do not know if (i) food web persistence requires that all predator-prey body mass ratios are intermediate, nor (ii) if this constraint depends on prey diversity. We experimentally quantified the functional response for a single predator consuming prey species of different body masses. We used the resultant allometric functional response to parametrize a food web model. We found that predator persistence was maximized when the minimum prey size in the community was intermediate, but as prey diversity increased, the minimum body size could take a broader range of values. This last result occurs because of Jensen's inequality: the average handling time for multiple prey of different sizes is higher than the handling time of the average sized prey. Our results demonstrate that prey diversity mediates how differences between predators and prey in body mass determine food web stability.

Bacterial adaptation to sublethal antibiotic gradients can change the ecological properties of multitrophic microbial communities.

Antibiotics leak constantly into environments due to widespread use in agriculture and human therapy. Although sublethal concentrations are well known to select for antibiotic-resistant bacteria, little is known about how bacterial evolution cascades through food webs, having indirect effect on species not directly affected by antibiotics (e.g. via population dynamics or pleiotropic effects). Here, we used an experimental evolution approach to test how temporal patterns of antibiotic stress, as well as migration within metapopulations, affect the evolution and ecology of microcosms containing one prey bacterium, one phage and two protist predators. We found that environmental variability, autocorrelation and migration had only subtle effects for population and evolutionary dynamics. However, unexpectedly, bacteria evolved greatest fitness increases to both antibiotics and enemies when the sublethal levels of antibiotics were highest, indicating positive pleiotropy. Crucially, bacterial adaptation cascaded through the food web leading to reduced predator-to-prey abundance ratio, lowered predator community diversity and increased instability of populations. Our results show that the presence of natural enemies can modify and even reverse the effects of antibiotics on bacteria, and that antibiotic selection can change the ecological properties of multitrophic microbial communities by having indirect effects on species not directly affected by antibiotics.

Drivers of arthropod biodiversity in an urban ecosystem.

Our world is becoming increasingly urbanized with a growing human population concentrated around cities. The expansion of urban areas has important consequences for biodiversity, yet the abiotic drivers of biodiversity in urban ecosystems have not been well characterized for the most diverse group of animals on the planet, arthropods. Given their great diversity, comparatively small home ranges, and ability to disperse, arthropods make an excellent model for studying which factors can most accurately predict urban biodiversity. We assessed the effects of (i) topography (distance to natural areas and to ocean) (ii) abiotic factors (mean annual temperature and diurnal range), and (iii) anthropogenic drivers (land value and amount of impervious surface) on the occurrence of six arthropod groups represented in Malaise trap collections run by the BioSCAN project across the Greater Los Angeles Area. We found striking heterogeneity in responses to all factors both within and between taxonomic groups. Diurnal temperature range had a consistently negative effect on occupancy but this effect was only significant in Phoridae. Anthropogenic drivers had mixed though mostly insignificant effects, as some groups and species were most diverse in highly urbanized areas, while other groups showed suppressed diversity. Only Phoridae was significantly affected by land value, where most species were more likely to occur in areas with lower land value. Los Angeles can support high regional arthropod diversity, but spatial community composition is highly dependent on the taxonomic group.

A data set for pollinator diversity and their interactions with plants in the Pacific Northwest.

Pollinator populations have declined substantially in recent years. The resulting loss in pollination services has both ecological and economic consequences, including reductions in plant diversity and crop production and lower food security. Data sets that identify pollinators and their plant hosts are of the utmost importance for the light can shed on the main causes of pollinator declines. Here we present a data set that contains 67,954 individual pollinator records. The data were collected across the Pacific Northwest, primarily focused in British Columbia (Canada), with 182 individual sites over 11 years, between 2005 and 2017. This data set comprises multiple studies that aimed to collect information on pollinator abundance, diversity, and their interactions with plants. Overall, the data set includes 937 morphospecies (of which 482 were identified to the species level) of pollinators across 105 families, including data for bees, wasps, butterflies, moths, and flies. We also present information on the interactions of these species, with 473 species of plants. The data set is being released for noncommercial use only. Credits should be given to this paper (i.e., proper citation).

A globally synthesised and flagged bee occurrence dataset and cleaning workflow.

Species occurrence data are foundational for research, conservation, and science communication, but the limited availability and accessibility of reliable data represents a major obstacle, particularly for insects, which face mounting pressures. We present BeeBDC, a new R package, and a global bee occurrence dataset to address this issue. We combined >18.3 million bee occurrence records from multiple public repositories (GBIF, SCAN, iDigBio, USGS, ALA) and smaller datasets, then standardised, flagged, deduplicated, and cleaned the data using the reproducible BeeBDC R-workflow. Specifically, we harmonised species names (following established global taxonomy), country names, and collection dates and, we added record-level flags for a series of potential quality issues. These data are provided in two formats, "cleaned" and "flagged-but-uncleaned". The BeeBDC package with online documentation provides end users the ability to modify filtering parameters to address their research questions. By publishing reproducible R workflows and globally cleaned datasets, we can increase the accessibility and reliability of downstream analyses. This workflow can be implemented for other taxa to support research and conservation.

Accounting for temporal change in multiple biodiversity patterns improves the inference of metacommunity processes.

In metacommunity ecology, a major focus has been on combining observational and analytical approaches to identify the role of critical assembly processes, such as dispersal limitation and environmental filtering, but this work has largely ignored temporal community dynamics. Here, we develop a "virtual ecologist" approach to evaluate assembly processes by simulating metacommunities varying in three main processes: density-independent responses to abiotic conditions, density-dependent biotic interactions, and dispersal. We then calculate a number of commonly used summary statistics of community structure in space and time and use random forests to evaluate their utility for inferring the strength of these three processes. We find that (i) both spatial and temporal data are necessary to disentangle metacommunity processes based on the summary statistics we test, and including statistics that are measured through time increases the explanatory power of random forests by up to 59% compared to cases where only spatial variation is considered; (ii) the three studied processes can be distinguished with different descriptors; and (iii) each summary statistic is differently sensitive to temporal and spatial sampling effort. Including repeated observations of metacommunities over time was essential for inferring the metacommunity processes, particularly dispersal. Some of the most useful statistics include the coefficient of variation of species abundances through time and metrics that incorporate variation in the relative abundances (evenness) of species. We conclude that a combination of methods and summary statistics is probably necessary to understand the processes that underlie metacommunity assembly through space and time, but we recognize that these results will be modified when other processes or summary statistics are used.

Network robustness and structure depend on the phenological characteristics of plants and pollinators.

Many structural patterns have been found to be important for the stability and robustness of mutualistic plant-pollinator networks. These structural patterns are impacted by a suite of variables, including species traits, species abundances, their spatial configuration, and their phylogenetic history. Here, we consider a specific trait: phenology, or the timing of life history events. We expect that timing and duration of activity of pollinators, or of flowering in plants, could greatly affect the species' roles within networks in which they are embedded. Using plant-pollinator networks from 33 sites in southern British Columbia, Canada, we asked (a) how phenological species traits, specifically timing of first appearance in the network and duration of activity in a network, were related to species' roles within a network, and (b) how those traits affected network robustness to phenologically biased species loss. We found that long duration of activity increased connection within modules for both pollinators and plants and among modules for plants. We also found that date of first appearance was positively related to interaction strength asymmetry in plants but negatively related to pollinators. Networks were generally more robust to the loss of pollinators than plants, and robustness increased if the models allow new interactions to form when old ones are lost, constrained by overlapping phenology of plants and pollinators. Robustness declined with the loss of late-flowering plants, which tended to have higher interaction strength asymmetry. In addition, robustness declined with loss of early-flying or long-duration pollinators. These pollinators tended to be among-module connectors. Our results point to networks being limited by early-flying pollinators. If plants flower earlier due to climate change, plant fitness may decline as they will depend on early emerging pollinators, unless pollinators also emerge earlier.

Genomic variation among populations provides insight into the causes of metacommunity survival.

Predators and prey interact at small spatial scales, but during their lifetime disperse at much larger spatial scales. Trophic metacommunity theory proposes that dispersal is a critical process that determines food web structure at small and large scales. The application of metacommunity theory to empirical systems remains elusive because key parameters such as dispersal and interaction strengths have been very difficult to quantify. Here we develop a novel approach that combines population genomics with mesocosm experiments to parameterize a metacommunity model. Using genotyping-by-sequencing, we characterized the dispersal kernels of a predator-prey pair living in a phytotelm metacommunity. We found that the prey dispersed up to 25 km while the predator dispersed only 350 m. We then quantified a functional response for these species using feeding trials. Even without invoking differences in the abiotic niche, our empirically parameterized simulation model produced patterns of population survival and occupancy that were consistent with past observations on the natural system. Importantly we found that these patterns were more likely to be found with simulations based on our observed values than in other regions of potential parameter space. This suggests that the observed dispersal kernels contribute to the dynamics of these species in the metacommunity.

Successful Integration of Data Science in Undergraduate Biostatistics Courses Using Cognitive Load Theory.

Biostatistics courses are integral to many undergraduate biology programs. Such courses have often been taught using point-and-click software, but these programs are now seldom used by researchers or professional biologists. Instead, biology professionals typically use programming languages, such as R, which are better suited to analyzing complex data sets. However, teaching biostatistics and programming simultaneously has the potential to overload the students and hinder their learning. We sought to mitigate this overload by using cognitive load theory (CLT) to develop assignments for two biostatistics courses. We evaluated the effectiveness of these assignments by comparing student cohorts who were taught R using these assignments (n = 146) with those who were taught R through example scripts or were instructed on a point-and-click software program (control, n = 181). We surveyed all cohorts and analyzed statistical and programming ability through students' lab reports or final exams. Students who learned R through our assignments rated their programming ability higher and were more likely to put the usage of R as a skill in their curricula vitae. We also found that the treatment students were more motivated, less frustrated, and less stressed when using R. These results suggest that we can use CLT to teach challenging material.

A precipitation gradient drives change in macroinvertebrate composition and interactions within bromeliads.

Ecological communities change across spatial and environmental gradients due to (i) changes in species composition, (ii) changes in the frequency or strength of interactions or (iii) changes in the presence of the interactions. Here we use the communities of aquatic invertebrates inhabiting clusters of bromeliad phytotelms along the Brazilian coast as a model system for examining variation in multi-trophic communities. We first document the variation in the species pools of sites across a geographical climate gradient. Using the same sites, we also explored the geographic variation in species interaction strength using a Markov network approach. We found that community composition differed along a gradient of water volume within bromeliads due to the spatial turnover of some species. From the Markov network analysis, we found that the interactions of certain predators differed due to differences in bromeliad water volume. Overall, this study illustrates how a multi-trophic community can change across an environmental gradient through changes in both species and their interactions.