Lineage frequency time series reveal elevated levels of genetic drift in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England.

Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don't yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. Our method is highly scalable to increasingly large genomic datasets, which overcomes a limitation in commonly used phylogenetic methods. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium and separately infer the strength of genetic drift for pre-B.1.177, B.1.177, Alpha, and Delta. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, which cannot be explained by literature values of superspreading. Our estimates of genetic drift suggest low and time-varying establishment probabilities for new mutations, inform the parametrization of SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary models, and motivate future studies of the potential mechanisms for increased stochasticity in this system.

Impact of crowding on the diversity of expanding populations.

Crowding effects critically impact the self-organization of densely packed cellular assemblies, such as biofilms, solid tumors, and developing tissues. When cells grow and divide, they push each other apart, remodeling the structure and extent of the population's range. Recent work has shown that crowding has a strong impact on the strength of natural selection. However, the impact of crowding on neutral processes, which controls the fate of new variants as long as they are rare, remains unclear. Here, we quantify the genetic diversity of expanding microbial colonies and uncover signatures of crowding in the site frequency spectrum. By combining Luria-Delbrück fluctuation tests, lineage tracing in a novel microfluidic incubator, cell-based simulations, and theoretical modeling, we find that the majority of mutations arise behind the expanding frontier, giving rise to clones that are mechanically "pushed out" of the growing region by the proliferating cells in front. These excluded-volume interactions result in a clone-size distribution that solely depends on where the mutation first arose relative to the front and is characterized by a simple power law for low-frequency clones. Our model predicts that the distribution depends on a single parameter-the characteristic growth layer thickness-and hence allows estimation of the mutation rate in a variety of crowded cellular populations. Combined with previous studies on high-frequency mutations, our finding provides a unified picture of the genetic diversity in expanding populations over the whole frequency range and suggests a practical method to assess growth dynamics by sequencing populations across spatial scales.

Tipping points emerge from weak mutualism in metacommunities.

The coexistence of obligate mutualists is often precariously close to tipping points where small environmental changes can drive catastrophic shifts in species composition. For example, microbial ecosystems can collapse by the decline of a strain that provides an essential resource on which other strains cross-feed. Here, we show that tipping points, ecosystem collapse, bistability and hysteresis arise even with very weak (non-obligate) mutualism provided the population is spatially structured. Based on numeric solutions of a metacommunity model and mean-field analyses, we demonstrate that weak mutualism lowers the minimal dispersal rate necessary to avoid stochastic extinction, while species need to overcome a mean threshold density to survive in this low dispersal rate regime. Our results allow us to make numerous predictions for mutualistic metacommunities regarding tipping points, hysteresis effects, and recovery from external perturbations, and let us draw general conclusions for ecosystems even with random, not necessarily mutualistic, interactions and systems with density-dependent dispersal rather than direct mutualistic interactions.

Self-consistent dispersal puts tight constraints on the spatiotemporal organization of species-rich metacommunities.

Biodiversity is often attributed to a dynamic equilibrium between the immigration and extinction of species. This equilibrium forms a common basis for studying ecosystem assembly from a static reservoir of migrants-the mainland. Yet, natural ecosystems often consist of many coupled communities (i.e., metacommunities), and migration occurs between these communities. The pool of migrants then depends on what is sustained in the ecosystem, which, in turn, depends on the dynamic migrant pool. This chicken-and-egg problem of survival and dispersal is poorly understood in communities of many competing species, except for the neutral case-the "unified neutral theory of biodiversity." Employing spatiotemporal simulations and mean-field analyses, we show that self-consistent dispersal puts rather tight constraints on the dynamic migration-extinction equilibrium. When the number of species is large, species are pushed to the edge of their global extinction, even when competition is weak. As a consequence, the overall diversity is highly sensitive to perturbations in demographic parameters, including growth and dispersal rates. When dispersal is short range, the resulting spatiotemporal abundance patterns follow broad scale-free distributions that correspond to a directed percolation phase transition. The qualitative agreement of our results for short-range and long-range dispersal suggests that this self-organization process is a general property of species-rich metacommunities. Our study shows that self-sustaining metacommunities are highly sensitive to environmental change and provides insights into how biodiversity can be rescued and maintained.

Scale-dependent tipping points of bacterial colonization resistance.

Bacteria are efficient colonizers of a wide range of secluded microhabitats, such as soil pores, skin follicles, or intestinal crypts. How the structural diversity of these habitats modulates microbial self-organization remains poorly understood, in part because of the difficulty to precisely manipulate the physical structure of microbial environments. Using a microfluidic device to grow bacteria in crypt-like incubation chambers of systematically varied lengths, we show that small variations in the physical structure of the microhabitat can drastically alter bacterial colonization success and resistance against invaders. Small crypts are uncolonizable; intermediately sized crypts can stably support dilute populations, while beyond a second critical length scale, populations phase separate into a dilute region and a jammed region. The jammed state is characterized by extreme colonization resistance, even if the resident strain is suppressed by an antibiotic. Combined with a flexible biophysical model, we demonstrate that colonization resistance and associated priority effects can be explained by a crowding-induced phase transition, which results from a competition between proliferation and density-dependent cell leakage. The emerging sensitivity to scale underscores the need to control for scale in microbial ecology experiments. Systematic flow-adjustable length-scale variations may serve as a promising strategy to elucidate further scale-sensitive tipping points and to rationally modulate the stability and resilience of microbial colonizers.

Genealogical structure changes as range expansions transition from pushed to pulled.

Range expansions accelerate evolution through multiple mechanisms, including gene surfing and genetic drift. The inference and control of these evolutionary processes ultimately rely on the information contained in genealogical trees. Currently, there are two opposing views on how range expansions shape genealogies. In invasion biology, expansions are typically approximated by a series of population bottlenecks producing genealogies with only pairwise mergers between lineages-a process known as the Kingman coalescent. Conversely, traveling wave models predict a coalescent with multiple mergers, known as the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent. Here, we unify these two approaches and show that expansions can generate an entire spectrum of coalescent topologies. Specifically, we show that tree topology is controlled by growth dynamics at the front and exhibits large differences between pulled and pushed expansions. These differences are explained by the fluctuations in the total number of descendants left by the early founders. High growth cooperativity leads to a narrow distribution of reproductive values and the Kingman coalescent. Conversely, low growth cooperativity results in a broad distribution, whose exponent controls the merger sizes in the genealogies. These broad distribution and non-Kingman tree topologies emerge due to the fluctuations in the front shape and position and do not occur in quasi-deterministic simulations. Overall, our results show that range expansions provide a robust mechanism for generating different types of multiple mergers, which could be similar to those observed in populations with strong selection or high fecundity. Thus, caution should be exercised in making inferences about the origin of non-Kingman genealogies.

The impact of long-range dispersal on gene surfing.

Range expansions lead to distinctive patterns of genetic variation in populations, even in the absence of selection. These patterns and their genetic consequences have been well studied for populations advancing through successive short-ranged migration events. However, most populations harbor some degree of long-range dispersal, experiencing rare yet consequential migration events over arbitrarily long distances. Although dispersal is known to strongly affect spatial genetic structure during range expansions, the resulting patterns and their impact on neutral diversity remain poorly understood. Here, we systematically study the consequences of long-range dispersal on patterns of neutral variation during range expansion in a class of dispersal models which spans the extremes of local (effectively short-ranged) and global (effectively well-mixed) migration. We find that sufficiently long-ranged dispersal leaves behind a mosaic of monoallelic patches, whose number and size are highly sensitive to the distribution of dispersal distances. We develop a coarse-grained model which connects statistical features of these spatial patterns to the evolution of neutral diversity during the range expansion. We show that growth mechanisms that appear qualitatively similar can engender vastly different outcomes for diversity: Depending on the tail of the dispersal distance distribution, diversity can be either preserved (i.e., many variants survive) or lost (i.e., one variant dominates) at long times. Our results highlight the impact of spatial and migratory structure on genetic variation during processes as varied as range expansions, species invasions, epidemics, and the spread of beneficial mutations in established populations.

Evolutionary dynamics of bacteria in the gut microbiome within and across hosts.

Gut microbiota are shaped by a combination of ecological and evolutionary forces. While the ecological dynamics have been extensively studied, much less is known about how species of gut bacteria evolve over time. Here, we introduce a model-based framework for quantifying evolutionary dynamics within and across hosts using a panel of metagenomic samples. We use this approach to study evolution in approximately 40 prevalent species in the human gut. Although the patterns of between-host diversity are consistent with quasi-sexual evolution and purifying selection on long timescales, we identify new genealogical signatures that challenge standard population genetic models of these processes. Within hosts, we find that genetic differences that accumulate over 6-month timescales are only rarely attributable to replacement by distantly related strains. Instead, the resident strains more commonly acquire a smaller number of putative evolutionary changes, in which nucleotide variants or gene gains or losses rapidly sweep to high frequency. By comparing these mutations with the typical between-host differences, we find evidence that some sweeps may be seeded by recombination, in addition to new mutations. However, comparisons of adult twins suggest that replacement eventually overwhelms evolution over multi-decade timescales, hinting at fundamental limits to the extent of local adaptation. Together, our results suggest that gut bacteria can evolve on human-relevant timescales, and they highlight the connections between these short-term evolutionary dynamics and longer-term evolution across hosts.

Spatial soft sweeps: Patterns of adaptation in populations with long-range dispersal.

Adaptation in extended populations often occurs through multiple independent mutations responding in parallel to a common selection pressure. As the mutations spread concurrently through the population, they leave behind characteristic patterns of polymorphism near selected loci-so-called soft sweeps-which remain visible after adaptation is complete. These patterns are well-understood in two limits of the spreading dynamics of beneficial mutations: the panmictic case with complete absence of spatial structure, and spreading via short-ranged or diffusive dispersal events, which tessellates space into distinct compact regions each descended from a unique mutation. However, spreading behaviour in most natural populations is not exclusively panmictic or diffusive, but incorporates both short-range and long-range dispersal events. Here, we characterize the spatial patterns of soft sweeps driven by dispersal events whose jump distances are broadly distributed, using lattice-based simulations and scaling arguments. We find that mutant clones adopt a distinctive structure consisting of compact cores surrounded by fragmented "haloes" which mingle with haloes from other clones. As long-range dispersal becomes more prominent, the progression from diffusive to panmictic behaviour is marked by two transitions separating regimes with differing relative sizes of halo to core. We analyze the implications of the core-halo structure for the statistics of soft sweep detection in small genomic samples from the population, and find opposing effects of long-range dispersal on the expected diversity in global samples compared to local samples from geographic subregions of the range. We also discuss consequences of the standing genetic variation induced by the soft sweep on future adaptation and mixing.

Adaptation limits ecological diversification and promotes ecological tinkering during the competition for substitutable resources.

Microbial communities can evade competitive exclusion by diversifying into distinct ecological niches. This spontaneous diversification often occurs amid a backdrop of directional selection on other microbial traits, where competitive exclusion would normally apply. Yet despite their empirical relevance, little is known about how diversification and directional selection combine to determine the ecological and evolutionary dynamics within a community. To address this gap, we introduce a simple, empirically motivated model of eco-evolutionary feedback based on the competition for substitutable resources. Individuals acquire heritable mutations that alter resource uptake rates, either by shifting metabolic effort between resources or by increasing the overall growth rate. While these constitutively beneficial mutations are trivially favored to invade, we show that the accumulated fitness differences can dramatically influence the ecological structure and evolutionary dynamics that emerge within the community. Competition between ecological diversification and ongoing fitness evolution leads to a state of diversification-selection balance, in which the number of extant ecotypes can be pinned below the maximum capacity of the ecosystem, while the ecotype frequencies and genealogies are constantly in flux. Interestingly, we find that fitness differences generate emergent selection pressures to shift metabolic effort toward resources with lower effective competition, even in saturated ecosystems. We argue that similar dynamical features should emerge in a wide range of models with a mixture of directional and diversifying selection.

Fluctuations uncover a distinct class of traveling waves.

Epidemics, flame propagation, and cardiac rhythms are classic examples of reaction-diffusion waves that describe a switch from one alternative state to another. Only two types of waves are known: pulled, driven by the leading edge, and pushed, driven by the bulk of the wave. Here, we report a distinct class of semipushed waves for which both the bulk and the leading edge contribute to the dynamics. These hybrid waves have the kinetics of pushed waves, but exhibit giant fluctuations similar to pulled waves. The transitions between pulled, semipushed, and fully pushed waves occur at universal ratios of the wave velocity to the Fisher velocity. We derive these results in the context of a species invading a new habitat by examining front diffusion, rate of diversity loss, and fluctuation-induced corrections to the expansion velocity. All three quantities decrease as a power law of the population density with the same exponent. We analytically calculate this exponent, taking into account the fluctuations in the shape of the wave front. For fully pushed waves, the exponent is -1, consistent with the central limit theorem. In semipushed waves, however, the fluctuations average out much more slowly, and the exponent approaches 0 toward the transition to pulled waves. As a result, a rapid loss of genetic diversity and large fluctuations in the position of the front occur, even for populations with cooperative growth and other forms of an Allee effect. The evolutionary outcome of spatial spreading in such populations could therefore be less predictable than previously thought.

SCWISh network is essential for survival under mechanical pressure.

Cells that proliferate within a confined environment build up mechanical compressive stress. For example, mechanical pressure emerges in the naturally space-limited tumor environment. However, little is known about how cells sense and respond to mechanical compression. We developed microfluidic bioreactors to enable the investigation of the effects of compressive stress on the growth of the genetically tractable model organism Saccharomyces cerevisiae We used this system to determine that compressive stress is partly sensed through a module consisting of the mucin Msb2 and the cell wall protein Sho1, which act together as a sensor module in one of the two major osmosensing pathways in budding yeast. This signal is transmitted via the MAPKKK kinase Ste11. Thus, we term this mechanosensitive pathway the "SMuSh" pathway, for Ste11 through Mucin/Sho1 pathway. The SMuSh pathway delays cells in the G1 phase of the cell cycle and improves cell survival in response to growth-induced pressure. We also found that the cell wall integrity (CWI) pathway contributes to the response to mechanical compressive stress. These latter results are confirmed in complimentary experiments in Mishra et al. [Mishra R, et al. (2017) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 10.1073/pnas.1709079114]. When both the SMuSh and the CWI pathways are deleted, cells fail to adapt to compressive stress, and all cells lyse at relatively low pressure when grown in confinement. Thus, we define a network that is essential for cell survival during growth under pressure. We term this mechanosensory system the SCWISh (survival through the CWI and SMuSh) network.

Genetic drift in range expansions is very sensitive to density dependence in dispersal and growth.

Theory predicts rapid genetic drift during invasions, yet many expanding populations maintain high genetic diversity. We find that genetic drift is dramatically suppressed when dispersal rates increase with the population density because many more migrants from the diverse, high-density regions arrive at the expansion edge. When density dependence is weak or negative, the effective population size of the front scales only logarithmically with the carrying capacity. The dependence, however, switches to a sublinear power law and then to a linear increase as the density dependence becomes strongly positive. We develop a unified framework revealing that the transitions between different regimes of diversity loss are controlled by a single, universal quantity: the ratio of the expansion velocity to the geometric mean of dispersal and growth rates at expansion edge. Our results suggest that positive density dependence could dramatically alter evolution in expanding populations even when its contribution to the expansion velocity is small.

Biomechanical Feedback Strengthens Jammed Cellular Packings.

Growth in confined spaces can drive cellular populations through a jamming transition from a fluidlike state to a solidlike state. Experiments have found that jammed budding yeast populations can build up extreme compressive pressures (over 1 MPa), which in turn feed back onto cellular physiology by slowing or even stalling cell growth. Using numerical simulations, we investigate how this feedback impacts the mechanical properties of model jammed cell populations. We find that feedback directs growth toward poorly coordinated regions, resulting in an excess number of cell-cell contacts that rigidify cell packings. Cell packings possess anomalously large shear and bulk moduli that depend sensitively on the strength of feedback. These results demonstrate that mechanical feedback on the single-cell level is a simple mechanism by which living systems may tune their population-level mechanical properties.

Genomic evidence for ameiotic evolution in the bdelloid rotifer Adineta vaga.

Loss of sexual reproduction is considered an evolutionary dead end for metazoans, but bdelloid rotifers challenge this view as they appear to have persisted asexually for millions of years. Neither male sex organs nor meiosis have ever been observed in these microscopic animals: oocytes are formed through mitotic divisions, with no reduction of chromosome number and no indication of chromosome pairing. However, current evidence does not exclude that they may engage in sex on rare, cryptic occasions. Here we report the genome of a bdelloid rotifer, Adineta vaga (Davis, 1873), and show that its structure is incompatible with conventional meiosis. At gene scale, the genome of A. vaga is tetraploid and comprises both anciently duplicated segments and less divergent allelic regions. However, in contrast to sexual species, the allelic regions are rearranged and sometimes even found on the same chromosome. Such structure does not allow meiotic pairing; instead, we find abundant evidence of gene conversion, which may limit the accumulation of deleterious mutations in the absence of meiosis. Gene families involved in resistance to oxidation, carbohydrate metabolism and defence against transposons are significantly expanded, which may explain why transposable elements cover only 3% of the assembled sequence. Furthermore, 8% of the genes are likely to be of non-metazoan origin and were probably acquired horizontally. This apparent convergence between bdelloids and prokaryotes sheds new light on the evolutionary significance of sex.

Convection shapes the trade-off between antibiotic efficacy and the selection for resistance in spatial gradients.

Since penicillin was discovered about 90 years ago, we have become used to using drugs to eradicate unwanted pathogenic cells. However, using drugs to kill bacteria, viruses or cancer cells has the serious side effect of selecting for mutant types that survive the drug attack. A crucial question therefore is how one could eradicate as many cells as possible for a given acceptable risk of drug resistance evolution. We address this general question in a model of drug resistance evolution in spatial drug gradients, which recent experiments and theories have suggested as key drivers of drug resistance. Importantly, our model takes into account the influence of convection, resulting for instance from blood flow. Using stochastic simulations, we study the fates of individual resistance mutations and quantify the trade-off between the killing of wild-type cells and the rise of resistance mutations: shallow gradients and convection into the antibiotic region promote wild-type death, at the cost of increasing the establishment probability of resistance mutations. We can explain these observed trends by modeling the adaptation process as a branching random walk. Our analysis reveals that the trade-off between death and adaptation depends on the relative length scales of the spatial drug gradient and random dispersal, and the strength of convection. Our results show that convection can have a momentous effect on the rate of establishment of new mutations, and may heavily impact the efficiency of antibiotic treatment.

Acceleration of evolutionary spread by long-range dispersal.

The spreading of evolutionary novelties across populations is the central element of adaptation. Unless populations are well mixed (like bacteria in a shaken test tube), the spreading dynamics depend not only on fitness differences but also on the dispersal behavior of the species. Spreading at a constant speed is generally predicted when dispersal is sufficiently short ranged, specifically when the dispersal kernel falls off exponentially or faster. However, the case of long-range dispersal is unresolved: Although it is clear that even rare long-range jumps can lead to a drastic speedup--as air-traffic-mediated epidemics show--it has been difficult to quantify the ensuing stochastic dynamical process. However, such knowledge is indispensable for a predictive understanding of many spreading processes in natural populations. We present a simple iterative scaling approximation supported by simulations and rigorous bounds that accurately predicts evolutionary spread, which is determined by a trade-off between frequency and potential effectiveness of long-distance jumps. In contrast to the exponential laws predicted by deterministic "mean-field" approximations, we show that the asymptotic spatial growth is according to either a power law or a stretched exponential, depending on the tails of the dispersal kernel. More importantly, we provide a full time-dependent description of the convergence to the asymptotic behavior, which can be anomalously slow and is relevant even for long times. Our results also apply to spreading dynamics on networks with a spectrum of long-range links under certain conditions on the probabilities of long-distance travel: These are relevant for the spread of epidemics.

Allele surfing promotes microbial adaptation from standing variation.

The coupling of ecology and evolution during range expansions enables mutations to establish at expanding range margins and reach high frequencies. This phenomenon, called allele surfing, is thought to have caused revolutions in the gene pool of many species, most evidently in microbial communities. It has remained unclear, however, under which conditions allele surfing promotes or hinders adaptation. Here, using microbial experiments and simulations, we show that, starting with standing adaptive variation, range expansions generate a larger increase in mean fitness than spatially uniform population expansions. The adaptation gain results from 'soft' selective sweeps emerging from surfing beneficial mutations. The rate of these surfing events is shown to sensitively depend on the strength of genetic drift, which varies among strains and environmental conditions. More generally, allele surfing promotes the rate of adaptation per biomass produced, which could help developing biofilms and other resource-limited populations to cope with environmental challenges.

Thermalized connectivity networks of jammed packings.

Jammed packings of repulsive elastic spheres have emerged as a rich model system within which the elastic properties of disordered glassy materials may be elucidated. Most of the work on these packings has focused on the case of vanishing temperature. Here, we explore the elastic properties of the associated connectivity network for finite temperatures, ignoring the breaking of bonds and the formation of new ones. Using extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we find that, as the temperature is increased, the resulting spring network shrinks and exhibits a rapidly softening bulk modulus via a cusp. Moreover, the shear modulus stiffens in a fixed volume ensemble but not in a fixed pressure ensemble. These counter-intuitive behaviors may be understood from the characteristic spectrum of soft modes near isostaticity, which resembles the spectrum of a rod near its buckling instability. Our results suggest a generic mechanism for negative thermal expansion coefficients in marginal solids. We discuss some consequences of bond breaking and an apparent analogy between thermalization and shear.