Detecting univariate, bivariate, and overall effects of drug mixtures using Bayesian kernel machine regression.

Background: Innovative analytic approaches to drug studies are needed to understand better the co-use of opioids with non-opioids among people using illicit drugs. One approach is the Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR), widely applied in environmental epidemiology to study exposure mixtures but has received far less attention in substance use research.Objective: To describe the utility of the BKMR approach to study the effects of drug substance mixtures on health outcomes.Methods: We simulated data for 200 individuals. Using the Vale and Maurelli method, we simulated multivariate non-normal drug exposure data: xylazine (mean = 300 ng/mL, SD = 100 ng/mL), fentanyl (mean = 200 ng/mL, SD = 71 ng/mL), benzodiazepine (mean = 300 ng/mL, SD = 55 ng/mL), and nitazene (mean = 200 ng/mL, SD = 141 ng/mL) concentrations. We performed 10,000 MCMC sampling iterations with three Markov chains. Model diagnostics included trace plots, r-hat values, and effective sample sizes. We also provided visual relationships of the univariate and bivariate exposure-response and the overall mixture effect.Results: Higher levels of fentanyl and nitazene concentrations were associated with higher levels of the simulated health outcome, controlling for age. Trace plots, r-hat values, and effective sample size statistics demonstrated BKMR stability across multiple Markov chains.Conclusions: Our understanding of drug mixtures tends to be limited to studies of single-drug models. BKMR offers an innovative way to discern which substances pose a greater health risk than other substances and can be applied to assess univariate, bivariate, and cumulative drug effects on health outcomes.

Robust approach to combining multiple markers to improve surrogacy.

Identifying effective and valid surrogate markers to make inference about a treatment effect on long-term outcomes is an important step in improving the efficiency of clinical trials. Replacing a long-term outcome with short-term and/or cheaper surrogate markers can potentially shorten study duration and reduce trial costs. There is sizable statistical literature on methods to quantify the effectiveness of a single surrogate marker. Both parametric and nonparametric approaches have been well developed for different outcome types. However, when there are multiple markers available, methods for combining markers to construct a composite marker with improved surrogacy remain limited. In this paper, building on top of the optimal transformation framework of Wang et al. (2020), we propose a novel calibrated model fusion approach to optimally combine multiple markers to improve surrogacy. Specifically, we obtain two initial estimates of optimal composite scores of the markers based on two sets of models with one set approximating the underlying data distribution and the other directly approximating the optimal transformation function. We then estimate an optimal calibrated combination of the two estimated scores which ensures both validity of the final combined score and optimality with respect to the proportion of treatment effect explained by the final combined score. This approach is unique in that it identifies an optimal combination of the multiple surrogates without strictly relying on parametric assumptions while borrowing modeling strategies to avoid fully nonparametric estimation which is subject to the curse of dimensionality. Our identified optimal transformation can also be used to directly quantify the surrogacy of this identified combined score. Theoretical properties of the proposed estimators are derived, and the finite sample performance of the proposed method is evaluated through simulation studies. We further illustrate the proposed method using data from the Diabetes Prevention Program study.

Identifying surrogate markers in real-world comparative effectiveness research.

In comparative effectiveness research (CER), leveraging short-term surrogates to infer treatment effects on long-term outcomes can guide policymakers evaluating new treatments. Numerous statistical procedures for identifying surrogates have been proposed for randomized clinical trials (RCTs), but no methods currently exist to evaluate the proportion of treatment effect (PTE) explained by surrogates in real-world data (RWD), which have become increasingly common. To address this knowledge gap, we propose inverse probability weighted (IPW) and doubly robust (DR) estimators of an optimal transformation of the surrogate and the corresponding PTE measure. We demonstrate that the proposed estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, and the DR estimator is consistent when either the propensity score model or outcome regression model is correctly specified. Our proposed estimators are evaluated through extensive simulation studies. In two RWD settings, we show that our method can identify and validate surrogate markers for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

Clinical characteristics and outcomes in childhood-onset hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: Childhood-onset hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is far less common than adult-onset disease, thus natural history is not well characterized. We aim to describe the characteristics and outcomes of childhood-onset HCM. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed an observational cohort study of 7677 HCM patients from the Sarcomeric Human Cardiomyopathy Registry (SHaRe). Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy patients were stratified by age at diagnosis [<1 year (infancy), 1-18 years (childhood), >18 years (adulthood)] and assessed for composite endpoints reflecting heart failure (HF), life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias, atrial fibrillation (AF), and an overall composite that also included stroke and death. Stratifying by age of diagnosis, 184 (2.4%) patients were diagnosed in infancy; 1128 (14.7%) in childhood; and 6365 (82.9%) in adulthood. Childhood-onset HCM patients had an ∼2%/year event rate for the overall composite endpoint, with ventricular arrhythmias representing the most common event in the 1st decade following baseline visit, but HF and AF becoming more common by the end of the 2nd decade. Sarcomeric variants were more common in childhood-onset HCM (63%) and carried a worse prognosis than non-sarcomeric disease, including a greater than two-fold increased risk of HF [HRadj 2.39 (1.36-4.20), P = 0.003] and 67% increased risk of the overall composite outcome [HRadj 1.67 (1.16-2.41), P = 0.006]. When compared with adult-onset HCM, childhood-onset was 36% more likely to develop life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias [HRadj 1.36 (1.03-1.80)] and twice as likely to require transplant or ventricular assist device [HRadj 1.99 (1.23-3.23)]. CONCLUSION: Patients with childhood-onset HCM are more likely to have sarcomeric disease, carry a higher risk of life-threatening ventricular arrythmias, and have greater need for advanced HF therapies. These findings provide insight into the natural history of disease and can help inform clinical risk stratification.

Worldwide differences in primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator utilization and outcomes in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: Risk stratification algorithms for sudden cardiac death (SCD) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) and regional differences in clinical practice have evolved over time. We sought to compare primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) implantation rates and associated clinical outcomes in US vs. non-US tertiary HCM centres within the international Sarcomeric Human Cardiomyopathy Registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included patients with HCM enrolled from eight US sites (n = 2650) and five non-US (n = 2660) sites and used multivariable Cox-proportional hazards models to compare outcomes between sites. Primary prevention ICD implantation rates in US sites were two-fold higher than non-US sites (hazard ratio (HR) 2.27 [1.89-2.74]), including in individuals deemed at high 5-year SCD risk (≥6%) based on the HCM risk-SCD score (HR 3.27 [1.76-6.05]). US ICD recipients also had fewer traditional SCD risk factors. Among ICD recipients, rates of appropriate ICD therapy were significantly lower in US vs. non-US sites (HR 0.52 [0.28-0.97]). No significant difference was identified in the incidence of SCD/resuscitated cardiac arrest among non-recipients of ICDs in US vs. non-US sites (HR 1.21 [0.74-1.97]). CONCLUSION: Primary prevention ICDs are implanted more frequently in patients with HCM in US vs. non-US sites across the spectrum of SCD risk. There was a lower rate of appropriate ICD therapy in US sites, consistent with a lower-risk population, and no significant difference in SCD in US vs. non-US patients who did not receive an ICD. Further studies are needed to understand what drives malignant arrhythmias, optimize ICD allocation, and examine the impact of different ICD utilization strategies on long-term outcomes in HCM.

Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy With Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction: Insights From the SHaRe Registry.

BACKGROUND: The term "end stage" has been used to describe hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) with left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD), defined as occurring when left ventricular ejection fraction is <50%. The prognosis of HCM-LVSD has reportedly been poor, but because of its relative rarity, the natural history remains incompletely characterized. METHODS: Data from 11 high-volume HCM specialty centers making up the international SHaRe Registry (Sarcomeric Human Cardiomyopathy Registry) were used to describe the natural history of patients with HCM-LVSD. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors of prognosis and incident development. RESULTS: From a cohort of 6793 patients with HCM, 553 (8%) met the criteria for HCM-LVSD. Overall, 75% of patients with HCM-LVSD experienced clinically relevant events, and 35% met the composite outcome (all-cause death [n=128], cardiac transplantation [n=55], or left ventricular assist device implantation [n=9]). After recognition of HCM-LVSD, the median time to composite outcome was 8.4 years. However, there was substantial individual variation in natural history. Significant predictors of the composite outcome included the presence of multiple pathogenic/likely pathogenic sarcomeric variants (hazard ratio [HR], 5.6 [95% CI, 2.3-13.5]), atrial fibrillation (HR, 2.6 [95% CI, 1.7-3.5]), and left ventricular ejection fraction <35% (HR, 2.0 [95% CI, 1.3-2.8]). The incidence of new HCM-LVSD was ≈7.5% over 15 years. Significant predictors of developing incident HCM-LVSD included greater left ventricular cavity size (HR, 1.1 [95% CI, 1.0-1.3] and wall thickness (HR, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.1-1.4]), left ventricular ejection fraction of 50% to 60% (HR, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.2, 2.8]-2.8 [95% CI, 1.8-4.2]) at baseline evaluation, the presence of late gadolinium enhancement on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (HR, 2.3 [95% CI, 1.0-4.9]), and the presence of a pathogenic/likely pathogenic sarcomeric variant, particularly in thin filament genes (HR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.0-2.1] and 2.5 [95% CI, 1.2-5.1], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: HCM-LVSD affects ≈8% of patients with HCM. Although the natural history of HCM-LVSD was variable, 75% of patients experienced adverse events, including 35% experiencing a death equivalent an estimated median time of 8.4 years after developing systolic dysfunction. In addition to clinical features, genetic substrate appears to play a role in both prognosis (multiple sarcomeric variants) and the risk for incident development of HCM-LVSD (thin filament variants).

Stratifying risk for dementia onset using large-scale electronic health record data: A retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Preventing dementia, or modifying disease course, requires identification of presymptomatic or minimally symptomatic high-risk individuals. METHODS: We used longitudinal electronic health records from two large academic medical centers and applied a validated natural language processing tool to estimate cognitive symptomatology. We used survival analysis to examine the association of cognitive symptoms with incident dementia diagnosis during up to 8 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Among 267,855 hospitalized patients with 1,251,858 patient years of follow-up data, 6516 (2.4%) received a new diagnosis of dementia. In competing risk regression, an increasing cognitive symptom score was associated with earlier dementia diagnosis (HR 1.63; 1.54-1.72). Similar results were observed in the second hospital system and in subgroup analysis of younger and older patients. DISCUSSION: A cognitive symptom measure identified in discharge notes facilitated stratification of risk for dementia up to 8 years before diagnosis.

Is seniority of emergency physician associated with the weekend mortality effect? An exploratory analysis of electronic health records in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: Admission to hospital over a weekend is associated with increased mortality, but the underlying causes of the weekend effect are poorly understood. We explore to what extent differences in emergency department (ED) admission and discharge processes, severity of illness and the seniority of the treating physician explain the weekend effect. METHODS: We analysed linked ED attendances to hospital admissions to Cambridge University Hospital over a 7-year period from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2013, with 30-day in-hospital death as the primary outcome and discharge as a competing risk. The primary exposure was day of the week of arrival. Subdistribution hazards models controlled for multiple confounders, including physician seniority, calendar year, mode of arrival, triage category, referral from general practice, sex, arrival time, prior attendances and admissions, diagnosis group and age. RESULTS: 229 401 patients made 424 845 ED attendances, of which 158 396 (37.3%) were admitted to the hospital. The case-mix of admitted patients was more ill at weekends: 2530 (6.4%) admitted at a weekend required immediate resuscitation compared with 6450 (5.4%) admitted on a weekday (p<0.0001). Senior doctors admitted 24.8% of patients on weekdays and 24.0% at weekends, but junior doctors admitted 61.7% of patients on weekdays and 44.2% at weekends. 3947 (3.3%) patients admitted on a weekday and 1454 (3.7%) patients admitted at a weekend died within 30 days. In the adjusted subdistribution hazards model, the HR of in-hospital death was 1.11 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.18) for weekend arrivals. After controlling for confounders, the in-hospital mortality of patients admitted by junior doctors was greater at the weekend (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.15, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.24). In-hospital mortality for patients admitted by senior doctors was not statistically different at the weekend (aHR 1.08, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.19). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the weekend effect was driven by a higher proportion of admitted patients requiring immediate resuscitation at the weekend. Junior doctors admitted a lower proportion of relatively healthy patients at the weekend compared with the weekday, thus diluting the risk pool of weekday admissions and contributing to the weekend effect. Senior doctors' admitting behaviour did not change at the weekend, and the corresponding weekend effect was reduced.

MSM HIV testing following an online testing intervention in China.

BACKGROUND: Scaling up HIV testing is the first step in the HIV treatment continuum which is important for controlling the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM). Following an online HIV testing intervention among MSM, we aim to examine sociodemographic and spatial factors associated with HIV testing. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis on data from an online HIV testing intervention among MSM who had never-tested for HIV. The survey was distributed through online networks connected to all provinces and regions of China. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to examine factors associated with testing three weeks post-intervention. RESULTS: At three weeks after the intervention, 36% of 624 followed-up MSM underwent HIV testing, 69 men reported positive HIV test results. Having money for sex, ever tested for sexually transmitted infections and intimate partner violence experience were significant factors of post-intervention HIV testing. Students were less likely to undergo HIV testing at follow-up compared to others (adjusted odds ratio=0.69, 95% C.I.=0.47-0.99), adjusted by age and type of intervention. Moderate provincial spatial variation of testing was observed. CONCLUSIONS: While high risk men generally had higher HIV testing rates, some MSM like students had lower testing rates, suggesting the need for further ways to enhance HIV testing in specific MSM communities.

Crowdsourcing HIV Test Promotion Videos: A Noninferiority Randomized Controlled Trial in China.

BACKGROUND: Crowdsourcing, the process of shifting individual tasks to a large group, may enhance human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing interventions. We conducted a noninferiority, randomized controlled trial to compare first-time HIV testing rates among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender individuals who received a crowdsourced or a health marketing HIV test promotion video. METHODS: Seven hundred twenty-one MSM and transgender participants (≥16 years old, never before tested for HIV) were recruited through 3 Chinese MSM Web portals and randomly assigned to 1 of 2 videos. The crowdsourced video was developed using an open contest and formal transparent judging while the evidence-based health marketing video was designed by experts. Study objectives were to measure HIV test uptake within 3 weeks of watching either HIV test promotion video and cost per new HIV test and diagnosis. RESULTS: Overall, 624 of 721 (87%) participants from 31 provinces in 217 Chinese cities completed the study. HIV test uptake was similar between the crowdsourced arm (37% [114/307]) and the health marketing arm (35% [111/317]). The estimated difference between the interventions was 2.1% (95% confidence interval, -5.4% to 9.7%). Among those tested, 31% (69/225) reported a new HIV diagnosis. The crowdsourced intervention cost substantially less than the health marketing intervention per first-time HIV test (US$131 vs US$238 per person) and per new HIV diagnosis (US$415 vs US$799 per person). CONCLUSIONS: Our nationwide study demonstrates that crowdsourcing may be an effective tool for improving HIV testing messaging campaigns and could increase community engagement in health campaigns. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02248558.

Sexual behaviors and HIV/syphilis testing among transgender individuals in China: implications for expanding HIV testing services.

BACKGROUND: HIV and syphilis are disproportionately common among transgender individuals globally, yet few studies have investigated transgender HIV/syphilis risk and testing in low- and middle-income nations. We conducted an online survey of men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender individuals to examine sexual behaviors and HIV/syphilis testing in China. METHODS: We recruited MSM and transgender individuals from 2 major Chinese lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender Web platforms. χ Test and logistic regression were used to compare risk behaviors, HIV and syphilis testing history, and prevalence between transgender individuals and other MSM. RESULTS: Among the 1320 participants, 52 (3.9%) self-identified as transgender. Demographics, including education, employment, and marital status, were similar between both groups, whereas transgender individuals were older. Condomless anal intercourse rate was comparable between the groups. Transgender individuals were less likely to report ever testing for HIV (34.6% vs. 62.0%) and syphilis (15.7% vs. 31.2%) with adjusted odds ratios of 0.36 (95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.65) and 0.42 (95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.91), respectively. We found a trend toward a higher HIV prevalence among transgender individuals (11.1% vs. 5.7%, P = 0.12). CONCLUSIONS: Transgender individuals have suboptimal HIV and syphilis testing rates in China. Given the substantial risk behaviors and burden of HIV/STI in the general Chinese MSM population and a lack of knowledge about transgender individuals, enhanced HIV/syphilis testing programs for transgender individuals in China are needed.

Gay Apps for Seeking Sex Partners in China: Implications for MSM Sexual Health.

Anti-gay stigma and harsh local environments in many low and middle-income countries (LMIC) encourage men who have sex with men (MSM) partner-seeking mobile application (gay app) use. To investigate the sexual risk profiles of gay app users and guide future HIV prevention programs, we conducted a cross-sectional online survey among 1,342 MSM in China examining associations between gay app use and sexual behaviors, including HIV and sexually transmitted disease testing. Compared to non-app users, app users were more likely to be younger, better educated, "out" about their sexual orientation, and single. They were also more likely to report multiple recent sex partners and HIV testing, but there was no difference in condomless sex between the two groups. Future research among MSM in LMIC is needed to characterize gay app use and explore its potential for future public health interventions.

Strategies for promoting HIV testing uptake: willingness to receive couple-based and collective HIV testing among a cross-sectional online sample of men who have sex with men in China.

OBJECTIVES: Low rates of HIV testing drive the rapidly growing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. We examined the potential usefulness of couple-based and collective HIV testing strategies among Chinese MSM. METHODS: A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among 1113 MSM in 2013. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with willingness to receive couple-based and collective testing. RESULTS: Acceptability of couple-based testing was very high among participants (86.1%), with a moderate level of interest in collective testing (43.2%). Being 'out' to others about one's sexual identity (adjusted OR (AOR)=1.48, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.17) and having ever had an HIV test (AOR=3.05, 95% CI 2.10 to 4.33) were associated with willingness to receive couple-based testing. Having multiple male anal sex partners in the past 3 months was associated with willingness to participate in collective testing (AOR=1.43, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.99). DISCUSSION: Couple-based and collective HIV testing could help better control the HIV epidemic among Chinese MSM if implemented and promoted in a culturally competent manner.

Organizational characteristics of HIV/syphilis testing services for men who have sex with men in South China: a social entrepreneurship analysis and implications for creating sustainable service models.

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS has called for greater HIV/syphilis testing worldwide just as local HIV/syphilis testing programs are cut or altered. New models are needed to make HIV/syphilis testing services sustainable while retaining their essential public health function. Social entrepreneurship, using business principles to promote a social cause, provides a framework to pilot programs that sustainably expand testing. Drawing on fieldwork in two South Chinese cities, we examined organizational and financial characteristics of current HIV/syphilis testing systems for men who have sex with men (MSM) in addition to new pilot programs focused on revenue-generation for sustainability. METHODS: We undertook a qualitative study to explore organizational and financial characteristics of HIV/syphilis testing for MSM. Data were collected from men who have sex with men and policy stakeholders in Guangzhou and Hong Kong. Framework analysis was used to identify themes and then code the data. RESULTS: Our qualitative research study included MSM and policy stakeholders (n = 84). HIV/syphilis testing services were implemented at a wide range of organizations which we grouped broadly as independent community-based organizations (CBOs), independent clinics, and hybrid CBO-clinic sites. From an organizational perspective, hybrid CBO-clinic sites offered the inclusive environment of an MSM CBO linked to the technical capacity and trained staff of a clinic. From a financial perspective, stakeholders expressed concern about the sustainability and effectiveness of sexual health services reliant on external funding. We identified four hybrid CBO-clinic organizations that launched pilot testing programs in order to generate revenue while expanding HIV testing. CONCLUSION: Many MSM CBOs are searching for new organizational models to account for decreased external support. Hybrid CBO-clinic organizations create a strong foundation to increase HIV/syphilis testing using social entrepreneurship models in China.

Sensitivity Analyses of Clinical Trial Designs: Selecting Scenarios and Summarizing Operating Characteristics.

The use of simulation-based sensitivity analyses is fundamental for evaluating and comparing candidate designs of future clinical trials. In this context, sensitivity analyses are especially useful to assess the dependence of important design operating characteristics with respect to various unknown parameters. Typical examples of operating characteristics include the likelihood of detecting treatment effects and the average study duration, which depend on parameters that are unknown until after the onset of the clinical study, such as the distributions of the primary outcomes and patient profiles. Two crucial components of sensitivity analyses are (i) the choice of a set of plausible simulation scenarios and (ii) the list of operating characteristics of interest. We propose a new approach for choosing the set of scenarios to be included in a sensitivity analysis. We maximize a utility criterion that formalizes whether a specific set of sensitivity scenarios is adequate to summarize how the operating characteristics of the trial design vary across plausible values of the unknown parameters. Then, we use optimization techniques to select the best set of simulation scenarios (according to the criteria specified by the investigator) to exemplify the operating characteristics of the trial design. We illustrate our proposal in three trial designs.

Multi-Source Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift.

Recent years have experienced increasing utilization of complex machine learning models across multiple sources of data to inform more generalizable decision-making. However, distribution shifts across data sources and privacy concerns related to sharing individual-level data, coupled with a lack of uncertainty quantification from machine learning predictions, make it challenging to achieve valid inferences in multi-source environments. In this paper, we consider the problem of obtaining distribution-free prediction intervals for a target population, leveraging multiple potentially biased data sources. We derive the efficient influence functions for the quantiles of unobserved outcomes in the target and source populations, and show that one can incorporate machine learning prediction algorithms in the estimation of nuisance functions while still achieving parametric rates of convergence to nominal coverage probabilities. Moreover, when conditional outcome invariance is violated, we propose a data-adaptive strategy to upweight informative data sources for efficiency gain and downweight non-informative data sources for bias reduction. We highlight the robustness and efficiency of our proposals for a variety of conformal scores and data-generating mechanisms via extensive synthetic experiments. Hospital length of stay prediction intervals for pediatric patients undergoing a high-risk cardiac surgical procedure between 2016-2022 in the U.S. illustrate the utility of our methodology.

TAXN: Translate Align Extract Normalize, a Multilingual Extraction Tool for Clinical Texts.

Several studies have shown that about 80% of the medical information in an electronic health record is only available through unstructured data. Resources such as medical terminologies in languages other than English are limited and restrain the NLP tools. We propose here to leverage English based resources in other languages using a combination of translation, word alignment, entity extraction and term normalization (TAXN). We implement this extraction pipeline in an open-source library called "medkit". We demonstrate the interest of this approach through a specific use-case: enriching a phenotypic dictionary for post-acute sequelae in COVID-19 (PASC). TAXN proved to be efficient to propose new synonyms of UMLS terms using a corpus of 70 articles in French with 356 terms enriched with at least one validated new synonym. This study was based on freely available deep-learning models.

Breaking Free from the Hazard Ratio: Embracing the Restricted Mean Survival Time in Clinical Trials.

Clinicians consider the Cox proportional hazards model to be the default tool of choice for analyzing right-censored time-to-event outcomes in randomized clinical trials.1 The Cox model estimates the ratio of the hazard of the outcome of interest (e.g., the time to death) between two treatment groups. The hazard is defined as the instantaneous probability of experiencing the event of interest in the next time interval among individuals who had not yet experienced the event. As a statistical measure, the hazard ratio can be difficult to interpret.

Evaluating and volunteering for crowdsourced interventions: Cross-sectional data on COVID-19 safety from a University Survey.

Despite many innovative ideas generated in response to COVID-19, few studies have examined community preferences for these ideas. Our study aimed to determine university community members' preferences for three novel ideas identified through a crowdsourcing open call at the University of North Carolina (UNC) for making campus safer in the pandemic, as compared to existing (i.e. pre-COVID-19) resources. An online survey was conducted from March 30, 2021 -May 6, 2021. Survey participants included UNC students, staff, faculty, and others. The online survey was distributed using UNC's mass email listserv and research directory, departmental listservs, and student text groups. Collected data included participant demographics, COVID-19 prevention behaviors, preferences for finalist ideas vs. existing resources in three domains (graduate student supports, campus tours, and online learning), and interest in volunteering with finalist teams. In total 437 survey responses were received from 228 (52%) staff, 119 (27%) students, 78 (18%) faculty, and 12 (3%) others. Most participants were older than age 30 years (309; 71%), women (332, 78%), and white (363, 83.1%). Five participants (1%) were gender minorities, 66 (15%) identified as racial/ethnic minorities, and 46 (10%) had a disability. Most participants preferred the finalist idea for a virtual campus tour of UNC's lesser-known history compared to the existing campus tour (52.2% vs. 16.0%). For graduate student supports, 41.4% of participants indicated no preference between the finalist idea and existing supports; for online learning resources, the existing resource was preferred compared to the finalist idea (41.6% vs. 30.4%). Most participants agreed that finalists' ideas would have a positive impact on campus safety during COVID-19 (81.2%, 79.6%, and 79.2% for finalist ideas 1, 2 and 3 respectively). 61 (14.1%) participants indicated interest in volunteering with finalist teams. Together these findings contribute to the development and implementation of community-engaged crowdsourced campus safety interventions during COVID-19.

Joint international consensus statement on crowdsourcing challenge contests in health and medicine: results of a modified Delphi process.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a consensus statement to provide advice on designing, implementing and evaluating crowdsourcing challenge contests in public health and medical contexts. DESIGN: Modified Delphi using three rounds of survey questionnaires and one consensus workshop. SETTING: Uganda for face-to-face consensus activities, global for online survey questionnaires. PARTICIPANTS: A multidisciplinary expert panel was convened at a consensus-development conference in Uganda and included 21 researchers with experience leading challenge contests, five public health sector workers, and nine Ugandan end users. An online survey was sent to 140 corresponding authors of previously published articles that had used crowdsourcing methods. RESULTS: A subgroup of expert panel members developed the initial statement and survey. We received responses from 120 (85.7%) survey participants, which were presented at an in-person workshop of all 21 panel members. Panelists discussed each of the sections, revised the statement, and participated in a second round of the survey questionnaire. Based on this second survey round, we held detailed discussions of each subsection with workshop participants and further revised the consensus statement. We then conducted the third round of the questionnaire among the 21 expert panelists and used the results to finalize the statement. This iterative process resulted in 23 final statement items, all with greater than 80% consensus. Statement items are organised into the seven stages of a challenge contest, including the following: considering the appropriateness, organising a community steering committee, promoting the contest, assessing contributions, recognising contributors, sharing ideas and evaluating the contest (COPARSE). CONCLUSIONS: There is high agreement among crowdsourcing experts and stakeholders on the design and implementation of crowdsourcing challenge contests. The COPARSE consensus statement can be used to organise crowdsourcing challenge contests, improve the rigour and reproducibility of crowdsourcing research and enable large-scale collaboration.