No Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation.

With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021-2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952-2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38-0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%-18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%-21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%-24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (-10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water-limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.

Assessing inter- and intraspecific variability of xylem vulnerability to embolism in oaks.

The genus Quercus comprises important species in forestry not only for their productive value but also for their ability to withstand drought. Hence an evaluation of inter- and intraspecific variation in drought tolerance is important for selecting the best adapted species and provenances for future afforestation. The presence of long vessels makes it difficult to assess xylem vulnerability to embolism in oak. Thanks to the development of an in situ flow centrifuge equipped with a large rotor, we quantified (i) the between species variability of embolism resistance in four native and two exotic species of oaks in Europe and (ii) the within species variability in Quercus petraea. Embolism resistance varied significantly among species, with the pressure inducing 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity (P50 ) ranging between - 7.0 and -4.2 MPa. Species native to the Mediterranean region were more resistant than pan-European species. In contrast, intraspecific variability in embolism resistance in Q. petraea was low within provenances and null among provenances. A positive correlation between P50 and vessel diameter among the six oak species indicates that the more embolism resistant species had narrower xylem vessels. However, this tradeoff between hydraulic efficiency and safety was not observed between Q. petraea provenances.

Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe.

How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change.

Identifying drivers of non-stationary climate-growth relationships of European beech.

The future performance of the widely abundant European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) across its ecological amplitude is uncertain. Although beech is considered drought-sensitive and thus negatively affected by drought events, scientific evidence indicating increasing drought vulnerability under climate change on a cross-regional scale remains elusive. While evaluating changes in climate sensitivity of secondary growth offers a promising avenue, studies from productive, closed-canopy forests suffer from knowledge gaps, especially regarding the natural variability of climate sensitivity and how it relates to radial growth as an indicator of tree vitality. Since beech is sensitive to drought, we in this study use a drought index as a climate variable to account for the combined effects of temperature and water availability and explore how the drought sensitivity of secondary growth varies temporally in dependence on growth variability, growth trends, and climatic water availability across the species' ecological amplitude. Our results show that drought sensitivity is highly variable and non-stationary, though consistently higher at dry sites compared to moist sites. Increasing drought sensitivity can largely be explained by increasing climatic aridity, especially as it is exacerbated by climate change and trees' rank progression within forest communities, as (co-)dominant trees are more sensitive to extra-canopy climatic conditions than trees embedded in understories. However, during the driest periods of the 20th century, growth showed clear signs of being decoupled from climate. This may indicate fundamental changes in system behavior and be early-warning signals of decreasing drought tolerance. The multiple significant interaction terms in our model elucidate the complexity of European beech's drought sensitivity, which needs to be taken into consideration when assessing this species' response to climate change.

Plant agronomy, leaf ecophysiology, yield and quality data of interspecific grafted Coffea arabica across an elevation gradient.

In-field data were collected in Costa Rica between 2018-2021 on newly planted grafted and non-grafted coffee plants grown under artificial shade nets and across an elevation gradient (1050, 1250 and 1450 m.a.s.l). The coffee plants consisted of Coffea arabica F1 hybrid plants ('H3 i.e. Caturra cv. X Ethiopian 531'), which were derived from a somatic embryogenesis clonal propagation process, an American C. arabica pure line ('Villa Sarchi') and C. canephora 'Nemaya' (the latter two both being produced by seed). Data from eight different coffee types (including these three genotypes) and different grafting combinations (including reverse and auto-grafting) were collected. Data concerned plant traits such as grafting compatibility (plant collar diameters above and below graft union), agronomic characteristics (aerial and root traits), leaf ecophysiology (leaf gas-exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence), yield and quality attributes (bean size, peaberry percentage, WB100 and SCA note). Climate data were also included for comparison on the farm plots along the elevation gradient. Linear mixed models were used to test for effects of elevation (test sites), coffee types (grafted or non-grafted combinations) and interaction between coffee types and elevations. Least square mean estimates were calculated for significant fixed effects and Tukey tests applied for pairwise tests. A tangential hyperbola curve was used to analyse leaf gas-exchange data. These datasets and R scripts can be re-used as a guide for future analyses concerning coffee agronomy or eco-physiological interactions for other plant species. Other potential re-uses could be meta-analyses aimed at comparing coffee yield, quality, or other agronomic traits across different environmental conditions (such as under shade of an agroforestry system or across different elevation sites).

Common garden comparisons confirm inherited differences in sensitivity to climate change between forest tree species.

The natural distribution, habitat, growth and evolutionary history of tree species are strongly dependent on ecological and genetic processes in ecosystems subject to fluctuating climatic conditions, but there have been few experimental comparisons of sensitivity between species. We compared the responses of two broadleaved tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea) and two conifer tree species (Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies) to climatic transfers by fitting models containing the same climatic variables. We used published data from European provenance test networks to model the responses of individual populations nested within species. A mixed model approach was applied to develop a response function for tree height over climatic transfer distance, taking into account the climatic conditions at both the seed source and the test location. The two broadleaved species had flat climatic response curves, indicating high levels of plasticity in populations, facilitating adaptation to a broader range of environments, and conferring a high potential for resilience in the face of climatic change. By contrast, the two conifer species had response curves with more pronounced slopes, indicating a lower resilience to climate change. This finding may reflect stronger genetic clines in P. sylvestris and P. abies, which constrain their climate responses to narrower climatic ranges. The response functions had maxima that deviated from the expected maximum productivity in the climate of provenance towards cooler/moister climate conditions, which we interpreted as an adaptation lag. Unilateral, linear regression analyses following transfer to warmer and drier sites confirmed a decline in productivity, predictive of the likely impact of ongoing climate change on forest populations. The responses to mimicked climate change evaluated here are of considerable interest for forestry and ecology, supporting projections of expected performance based on "real-time" field data.

Differences among six woody perennials native to Northern Europe in their level of genetic differentiation and adaptive potential at fine local scale.

The ability of perennial species to adapt their phenology to present and future temperature conditions is important for their ability to retain high fitness compared to other competing plant species, pests, and pathogens. Many transplanting studies with forest tree species have previously reported substantial genetic differentiation among populations within their native range. However, the question of "how local is local" is still highly debated in conservation biology because studies on genetic patterns of variation within and among populations at the local scale are limited and scattered. In this study, we compare the level of genetic differentiation among populations of six different perennial plant species based on their variation in spring flushing. We assess the level of additive genetic variation present within the local population. For all six species, we find significant differentiation among populations from sites with mean annual temperature ranging between 7.4°C and 8.4°C. The observed variation can only be partly explained by the climate at the site of origin. Most clear relationship between early flushing and higher average spring temperature is observed for the three wind-pollinated species in the study, while the relations are much less clear for the three insect-pollinated species. This supports that pollination system can influence the balance between genetic drift and natural selection and thereby influence the level of local adaptation in long-lived species. On the positive side, we find that the native populations of woody plant species have maintained high levels of additive genetic variation in spring phenology, although this also differs substantially among the six studied species.

Local adaptation through genetic differentiation in highly fragmented Tilia cordata populations.

We assessed the level of geographic differentiation of Tilia cordata in Denmark based on tests of 91 trees selected from 12 isolated populations. We used quantitative analysis of spring phenology and population genetic analysis based on SSR markers to infer the likely historical genetic processes within and among populations. High genetic variation within and among populations was observed in spring phenology, which correlated with spring temperatures at the origin of the tested T. cordata trees. The population genetic analysis revealed significant differentiation among the populations, but with no clear sign of isolation by distance. We infer the findings as indications of ongoing fine scale selection in favor of local growth conditions made possible by limited gene flow among the small and fragmented populations. This hypothesis fits well with reports of limited fruiting in the investigated Danish T. cordata populations, while the species is known for its ability to propagate vegetatively by root suckers. Our results suggest that both divergent selection and genetic drift may have played important roles in forming the genetic patterns of T. cordata at its northern distribution limit. However, we also speculate that epigenetic mechanism arising from the original population environment could have created similar patterns in regulating the spring phenology.

Adaptive potential of ash (Fraxinus excelsior) populations against the novel emerging pathogen Hymenoscyphus pseudoalbidus.

An emerging infectious pathogen Hymenoscyphus pseudoalbidus has spread across much of Europe within recent years causing devastating damage on European common ash trees (Fraxinus excelsior) and associated plant communities. The present study demonstrates the presence of additive genetic variation in susceptibility of natural F. excelsior populations to the new invasive disease. We observe high levels of additive variation in the degree of susceptibility with relatively low influence of environmental factors (narrow-sense heritability = 0.37-0.52). Most native trees are found to be highly susceptible, and we estimate that only around 1% has the potential of producing offspring with expected crown damage of <10% under the present disease pressure. The results suggest that the presence of additive genetic diversity in natural F. excelsior populations can confer the species with important ability to recover, but that low resistance within natural European populations is to be expected because of a low frequency of the hypo-sensitive trees. Large effective population sizes will be required to avoid genetic bottlenecks. The role of artificial selection and breeding for protection of the species is discussed based on the findings.