The validity of electronic health data for measuring smoking status: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is a risk factor for many chronic diseases. Multiple smoking status ascertainment algorithms have been developed for population-based electronic health databases such as administrative databases and electronic medical records (EMRs). Evidence syntheses of algorithm validation studies have often focused on chronic diseases rather than risk factors. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of smoking status ascertainment algorithms to describe the characteristics and validity of these algorithms. METHODS: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed. We searched articles published from 1990 to 2022 in EMBASE, MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science with key terms such as validity, administrative data, electronic health records, smoking, and tobacco use. The extracted information, including article characteristics, algorithm characteristics, and validity measures, was descriptively analyzed. Sources of heterogeneity in validity measures were estimated using a meta-regression model. Risk of bias (ROB) in the reviewed articles was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool. RESULTS: The initial search yielded 2086 articles; 57 were selected for review and 116 algorithms were identified. Almost three-quarters (71.6%) of algorithms were based on EMR data. The algorithms were primarily constructed using diagnosis codes for smoking-related conditions, although prescription medication codes for smoking treatments were also adopted. About half of the algorithms were developed using machine-learning models. The pooled estimates of positive predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.843, 0.672, and 0.918 respectively. Algorithm sensitivity and specificity were highly variable and ranged from 3 to 100% and 36 to 100%, respectively. Model-based algorithms had significantly greater sensitivity (p = 0.006) than rule-based algorithms. Algorithms for EMR data had higher sensitivity than algorithms for administrative data (p = 0.001). The ROB was low in most of the articles (76.3%) that underwent the assessment. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple algorithms using different data sources and methods have been proposed to ascertain smoking status in electronic health data. Many algorithms had low sensitivity and positive predictive value, but the data source influenced their validity. Algorithms based on machine-learning models for multiple linked data sources have improved validity.

Knowledge of HIV/AIDS among married women in Bangladesh: analysis of three consecutive multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS).

Married women have a higher risk of contracting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or develop acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) than men. Knowledge of HIV/AIDS contributes significantly to describing the prevalence and consequences of such virus/disease. The study aimed to investigate the level of HIV/AIDS knowledge and the socio-demographic variables that influence HIV/AIDS knowledge among married women in Bangladesh. We used three waves of Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), which included 33,843, 20,727, and 29,724 married women from 2006, 2012, and 2019 MICS. A score was prepared through their interrogation to determine the level of knowledge and logistic regression models were used for analyzing the data. This study found that the prevalence of knowledge level of HIV/AIDS in different questions increased from 55.20% in 2006 to 58.69% in 2019. In our study, respondents having highest education had 4.03 (95% CI 3.50-4.64) times more chance to obtain "High Score" in 2019 MICS which is 5.30 times in 2012 MICS (95% CI 4.41-6.37) and 2.58 times in 2006 MICS (95% CI 2.28-2.93) compared to illiterate married women. Moreover, respondents from urban area were 1.13 times more likely to obtain "High Score" in 2019 MICS which is 1.14 times in 2012 MICS and 1.16 times in 2006 MICS, respectively than the rural married women. This study also found respondent's age, division, mass media access, and wealth status have played an important role in HIV/AIDS knowledge. Although a significant proportion of women had adequate knowledge of HIV/AIDS, more knowledge is still required to protect against such viruses/diseases. Thus, we advocate for the implementation of educational program in the curriculum, counselling, particularly in rural areas, and mass media access to ensure quality knowledge throughout the country.

The effective reproductive number: Modeling and prediction with application to the multi-wave Covid-19 pandemic.

Classical compartmental models of infectious disease assume that spread occurs through a homogeneous population. This produces poor fits to real data, because individuals vary in their number of epidemiologically-relevant contacts, and hence in their ability to transmit disease. In particular, network theory suggests that super-spreading events tend to happen more often at the beginning of an epidemic, which is inconsistent with the homogeneity assumption. In this paper we argue that a flexible decay shape for the effective reproductive number (Rt) indexed by the susceptible fraction (St) is a theory-informed modeling choice, which better captures the progression of disease incidence over human populations. This, in turn, produces better retrospective fits, as well as more accurate prospective predictions of observed epidemic curves. We extend this framework to fit multi-wave epidemics, and to accommodate public health restrictions on mobility. We demonstrate the performance of this model by doing a prediction study over two years of the SARS-CoV2 pandemic.

The availability of essential medicines for cardiovascular diseases at healthcare facilities in low- and middle-income countries: The case of Bangladesh.

Long-term, often lifelong care for cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients requires consistent use of medicine; hence, the availability of essential medicine for CVD (EM-CVD) is vital for treatment, quality of life, and survival. We aimed to assess the availability of EM-CVD and explore healthcare facility (HCF) characteristics associated with the availability of those medicines in Bangladesh. This study utilized publicly available cross-sectional data from the 2014 and 2017 waves of the Bangladesh Health Facilities Survey (BHFS). The analysis included 204 facilities (84 from the 2014 BHFS and 120 from the 2017 BHFS) that provide CVD diagnosis and treatment services. The outcome variable "EM-CVD availability" was calculated as a counting score of the following tracer medicines: angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors (enalapril), thiazide, beta-blockers (atenolol), calcium channel blockers (amlodipine and nifedipine), aspirin, and simvastatin/atorvastatin. A multivariable Poisson regression model was used to identify the HCF characteristics associated with EM-CVD availability. The number of Bangladeshi HCFs that provide CVD screening and treatment services increased just a little between 2014 and 2017 (from 5.4% to 7.9%). Since 2014, there has been an increase in the availability of calcium channel blockers (from 37.5% to 38.5%), aspirin (from 25.3% to 27.9%), and simvastatin/atorvastatin (from 8.0% to 30.7%), whereas there has been a decrease in the availability of ACE inhibitors (enalapril) (from 12.5% to 6.5%), thiazide (from 15.7% to 11.1%), and beta-blockers (from 42.5% to 32.5%). The likelihood of EM-CVD being available was higher among private and urban facilities than among public and rural facilities. Furthermore, facilities that had 24-hour staff coverage and performed quality assurance activities had a higher chance of having EM-CVD available than those that did not have 24-hour staff coverage and did not undertake quality assurance activities. Government authorities should think about a wide range of policy implications, such as putting more emphasis on public and rural facilities, making sure staff is available 24 hours a day, and performing quality assurance activities at facilities to make EM-CVD more available.

Factors associated with knowledge and awareness of HIV/AIDS among married women in Bangladesh: evidence from a nationally representative survey.

Women in Bangladesh share a greater risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) infection compared to men. Levels of knowledge and awareness largely contribute to the prevalence of the HIV epidemic and its consequences. So, it is required to conduct studies based on most recent data to explore the determinants of HIV awareness. Therefore, we aimed to find the awareness level and factors influencing HIV related awareness among the married women in Bangladesh. We used data from 2014 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS). About two-third of total respondents who heard about the HIV/AIDS were selected and interviewed successfully (n = 12,593) about 11 basic questions related to individual's awareness. A score of the respondent's knowledge and awareness was determined based on these questions. We used logistic regression models for analysing the data. We found about 62% of the respondents had an adequate knowledge and consciousness about the HIV/AIDS. Respondents' education status, mass-media access, place of living, and working status played significant role on the awareness. As expected, respondents with higher education were more aware than those with no education (odds ratio (OR) = 3.56, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.99-4.23). Moreover, respondents who had access to the mass media were more likely to be aware compared to those who did not have the access (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.04-1.26). Although a sizeable proportion of women had an adequate knowledge and awareness regarding the HIV/AIDS, we recommend implementing educational programmes related to HIV/AIDS in the curriculum to ensure a standard level of awareness throughout the nation. Since the respondents from rural areas scored significantly lower than the urban areas, awareness through mass media, particularly in rural areas, is of prime concern for raising awareness.

Prevalence of cardiovascular disease among Bangladeshi adult population: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the studies.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a group of conditions affecting the functioning of the heart or blood vessels and is one of the leading causes of death globally. Like other countries, CVD prevalence is also rising among the adults in Bangladesh. Epidemiological studies have shown not only a high CVD prevalence but also a significant increase in its prevalence in Bangladesh in the last few decades. To have a better understanding of the current CVD prevalence scenario, we conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis. Our objective was to assess the prevalence of CVD among the Bangladeshi adult population using evidence from the published scientific literature. METHODS: Electronic databases such as MEDLINE, Embase and PubMed were searched. We also manually checked the references of all relevant publications that describe the prevalence of CVD in Bangladeshi adults. To pool the CVD prevalence, we used random-effects meta-analysis. We assessed heterogeneity using both the formal tests and the subgroup analyses. We also assessed study quality and examined publication bias. RESULTS: We retrieved 755 potentially relevant papers through searches of electronic and gray literature, of which only 13 met inclusion criteria after the screening and were included in this review. Of the studies that met inclusion criteria, three were carried out in rural populations, five in both urban and rural populations and two in strictly urban populations. Male and female participation in the studies was almost equal. The weighted pooled prevalence of CVD was 5.0%, regardless of the types of CVD, gender and geographical location of the study participants. There was also a high heterogeneity in the observed CVD prevalence. Weighted pooled prevalence of overall CVD in the Bangladeshi population was higher in urban areas (8%) compared to rural areas (2%). However, no such difference was observed in terms of gender (3% for both males and females). The highest reported prevalence (21%) was for heart disease, while the lowest reported prevalence (1%) was for stroke. Sources of heterogeneity were often unexplained. The criteria used to assess study quality were fulfilled by only a few studies, and adequate sample size criteria was missed by almost all of them. In addition, there was evidence of small-study effects. CONCLUSION: A high CVD prevalence along with an upward trend was observed in Bangladeshi adults. Proper strategies are required for primary prevention of CVD so that a further increase can be alleviated and the morbidity and mortality associated with it can be reduced.