A global map of species at risk of extinction due to natural hazards.

An often-overlooked question of the biodiversity crisis is how natural hazards contribute to species extinction risk. To address this issue, we explored how four natural hazards, earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, overlapped with the distribution ranges of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles that have either narrow distributions or populations with few mature individuals. To assess which species are at risk from these natural hazards, we combined the frequency and magnitude of each natural hazard to estimate their impact. We considered species at risk if they overlapped with regions where any of the four natural hazards historically occurred (n = 3,722). Those species with at least a quarter of their range subjected to a high relative impact were considered at high risk (n = 2,001) of extinction due to natural hazards. In total, 834 reptiles, 617 amphibians, 302 birds, and 248 mammals were at high risk and they were mainly distributed on islands and in the tropics. Hurricanes (n = 983) and earthquakes (n = 868) affected most species, while tsunamis (n = 272), and volcanoes (n = 171) affected considerably fewer. The region with the highest number of species at high risk was the Pacific Ring of Fire, especially due to volcanoes, earthquakes, and tsunamis, while hurricane-related high-risk species were concentrated in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern Pacific Ocean. Our study provides important information regarding the species at risk due to natural hazards and can help guide conservation attention and efforts to safeguard their survival.

A Conceptual Framework to Integrate Biodiversity, Ecosystem Function, and Ecosystem Service Models.

Global biodiversity and ecosystem service models typically operate independently. Ecosystem service projections may therefore be overly optimistic because they do not always account for the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecological functions. We review models used in recent global model intercomparison projects and develop a novel model integration framework to more fully account for the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function, a key gap for linking biodiversity changes to ecosystem services. We propose two integration pathways. The first uses empirical data on biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships to bridge biodiversity and ecosystem function models and could currently be implemented globally for systems and taxa with sufficient data. We also propose a trait-based approach involving greater incorporation of biodiversity into ecosystem function models. Pursuing both approaches will provide greater insight into biodiversity and ecosystem services projections. Integrating biodiversity, ecosystem function, and ecosystem service modeling will enhance policy development to meet global sustainability goals.

Below the canopy: global trends in forest vertebrate populations and their drivers.

Global forest assessments use forest area as an indicator of biodiversity status, which may mask below-canopy pressures driving forest biodiversity loss and 'empty forest' syndrome. The status of forest biodiversity is important not only for species conservation but also because species loss can have consequences for forest health and carbon storage. We aimed to develop a global indicator of forest specialist vertebrate populations to improve assessments of forest biodiversity status. Using the Living Planet Index methodology, we developed a weighted composite Forest Specialist Index for the period 1970-2014. We then investigated potential correlates of forest vertebrate population change. We analysed the relationship between the average rate of change of forest vertebrate populations and satellite-derived tree cover trends, as well as other pressures. On average, forest vertebrate populations declined by 53% between 1970 and 2014. We found little evidence of a consistent global effect of tree cover change on forest vertebrate populations, but a significant negative effect of exploitation threat on forest specialists. In conclusion, we found that the forest area is a poor indicator of forest biodiversity status. For forest biodiversity to recover, conservation management needs to be informed by monitoring all threats to vertebrates, including those below the canopy.

Threats to reptiles at global and regional scales.

Reptiles are an important, yet often understudied, taxon in nature conservation. They play a significant role in ecosystems1 and can serve as indicators of environmental health, often responding more rapidly to human pressures than other vertebrate groups.2 At least 21% of reptiles are currently assessed as threatened with extinction by the IUCN.3 However, due to the lack of comprehensive global assessments until recently, they have been omitted from spatial studies addressing conservation or spatial prioritization (e.g., Rosauer et al.,4,5,6,7,8 Fritz and Rahbek,4,5,6,7,8 Farooq et al.,4,5,6,7,8 Meyer et al., 4,5,6,7,8 and Farooq et al.4,5,6,7,8). One important knowledge gap in conservation is the lack of spatially explicit information on the main threats to biodiversity,9 which significantly hampers our ability to respond effectively to the current biodiversity crisis.10,11 In this study, we calculate the probability of a reptile species in a specific location being affected by one of seven biodiversity threats-agriculture, climate change, hunting, invasive species, logging, pollution, and urbanization. We conducted the analysis at a global scale, using a 50 km × 50 km grid, and evaluated the impact of these threats by studying their relationship with the risk of extinction. We find that climate change, logging, pollution, and invasive species are most linked to extinction risk. However, we also show that there is considerable geographical variation in these results. Our study highlights the importance of going beyond measuring the intensity of threats to measuring the impact of these separately for various biogeographical regions of the world, with different historical contingencies, as opposed to a single global analysis treating all regions the same.

Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage.

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem's carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Impact Assessment of Free-Roaming Dog Population Management by CNVR in Greater Bangkok.

A high-intensity catch, neuter, vaccinate and return (CNVR) intervention was used over 5 years to manage the free-roaming dog population of Greater Bangkok, using nearly 300,000 CNVR operations across six provinces. An evaluation was conducted using multiple methods to assess the impact of this intervention, including clinical data, an observational street survey, an online attitude survey and reported cases of dog rabies confirmed with laboratory testing. The evaluation found evidence of a reduction in free-roaming dog density over time (24.7% reduction over 5 years), a reduction in dog rabies cases (average reduction of 5.7% rabies cases per month) and an improvement in dog-human relationships (a 39% increase per year in free-roaming dogs with visible signs of ownership or care and a perception of less trouble with free-roaming dogs in districts benefiting from CNVR). The CNVR intervention appears to have been effective at reducing the current free-roaming dog population and minimizing one future source of free-roaming dogs by limiting breeding of dogs accessible on the streets. However, there is evidence that other sources of free-roaming dogs exist, presumed to be predominately abandoned or lost owned dogs that were previously inaccessible to the CNVR intervention because they were ordinarily confined or living outside the project area. Hence, fully effective dog population management will require further interventions targeting owned dogs in addition to this CNVR effort.

Evaluation of Community-Based Dog Welfare and Rabies Project in Sanur, a Sub-district of the Indonesian Island Province of Bali.

The Indonesian island province of Bali experienced its first rabies incursion in 2008. Mass vaccination of the dog population has proven effective and rabies cases in dogs and people have decreased, however the virus is still circulating among the dog population. Vaccination coverage must be maintained until rabies elimination. Increasing efficiency and effectiveness of vaccination campaigns is therefore desired. Community engagement leading to preventative health actions by community members can reduce disease incidence and costs of control. Here we evaluate 2 years of a novel community-based dog welfare and rabies control project (Program Dharma) in the Sanur sub-district. The project engaged the services of people living in the project area with an interest or experience in dogs or community health services. These people spoke with owners within their own community about dog welfare and health, monitored owned and unowned dogs and increased owner and carer efforts to access vaccination and further veterinary services. The evaluation focused on a sample of dogs whose owners had been regularly engaged with project. Vaccination coverage was increased and there were no dog or human rabies cases reported in the project area; the percentage of the dogs that had never been vaccinated was reduced by an average 28.3% (baseline unvaccinated 41-49%, post-project unvaccinated 11-19%). The welfare of dogs improved from an average of 20.7% of dogs with visible welfare problems at baseline to 2.7% after project implementation. Roaming dog density observed on street surveys also decreased in all project areas (24-47% reduction dependent on desa). A participatory evaluation event with a sample of Program Dharma community-based agents highlighted several additional successes, including that the community appeared to welcome and value their services and were beginning to support the cost of project activities. Conversely, challenges included identifying dogs in the database during revisits, sustaining the costs of community member time spent working on Program Dharma activities and the costs of veterinary care, whilst avoiding dependency of owners on free veterinary services. The benefits revealed by the evaluation were judged to be sufficient to extend Program Dharma to new areas, whilst evolving activities to resolve challenges.

Integrating climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the global ocean.

The impacts of climate change and the socioecological challenges they present are ubiquitous and increasingly severe. Practical efforts to operationalize climate-responsive design and management in the global network of marine protected areas (MPAs) are required to ensure long-term effectiveness for safeguarding marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we review progress in integrating climate change adaptation into MPA design and management and provide eight recommendations to expedite this process. Climate-smart management objectives should become the default for all protected areas, and made into an explicit international policy target. Furthermore, incentives to use more dynamic management tools would increase the climate change responsiveness of the MPA network as a whole. Given ongoing negotiations on international conservation targets, now is the ideal time to proactively reform management of the global seascape for the dynamic climate-biodiversity reality.

Dog Ecology and Rabies Knowledge of Owners and Non-Owners in Sanur, A Sub-District of the Indonesian Island Province of Bali.

This study gained an understanding of dog demographics, owner behaviour, and knowledge, attitudes and practices relating to rabies in three villages in Sanur, Bali, providing insights for an intervention to improve responsible dog ownership. A combination of a census of all dogs, street surveys of roaming dogs, and a Knowledge, Attitude and Practices (KAP) survey was used to study both dogs and people. A total of 6009 dogs were recorded, of which only 3.3% appeared to be unowned; unowned dogs had poorer welfare and were more likely to be wary of attempted approaches by people. The source of dogs, method of confinement used by owners, and whether dogs were sterilised differed between three breed types; purebred dogs, mixed breed, and Bali dogs (native breed). Three variables were found to have significant effects on the chances of not being vaccinated: age, dog type, and confinement. A mean of 3.81 roaming dogs per km of street surveyed was recorded along 28 sub-village routes. Responses to attitude statements showed that most people had a positive attitude towards dogs and vaccination and did not agree with culling. Knowledge of appropriate bite treatment and symptoms of rabies in dogs was good.

Simulating social-ecological systems: the Island Digital Ecosystem Avatars (IDEA) consortium.

Systems biology promises to revolutionize medicine, yet human wellbeing is also inherently linked to healthy societies and environments (sustainability). The IDEA Consortium is a systems ecology open science initiative to conduct the basic scientific research needed to build use-oriented simulations (avatars) of entire social-ecological systems. Islands are the most scientifically tractable places for these studies and we begin with one of the best known: Moorea, French Polynesia. The Moorea IDEA will be a sustainability simulator modeling links and feedbacks between climate, environment, biodiversity, and human activities across a coupled marine-terrestrial landscape. As a model system, the resulting knowledge and tools will improve our ability to predict human and natural change on Moorea and elsewhere at scales relevant to management/conservation actions.