Impact of methodological choices in comparative effectiveness studies: application in natalizumab versus fingolimod comparison among patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Natalizumab and fingolimod are used as high-efficacy treatments in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Several observational studies comparing these two drugs have shown variable results, using different methods to control treatment indication bias and manage censoring. The objective of this empirical study was to elucidate the impact of methods of causal inference on the results of comparative effectiveness studies. METHODS: Data from three observational multiple sclerosis registries (MSBase, the Danish MS Registry and French OFSEP registry) were combined. Four clinical outcomes were studied. Propensity scores were used to match or weigh the compared groups, allowing for estimating average treatment effect for treated or average treatment effect for the entire population. Analyses were conducted both in intention-to-treat and per-protocol frameworks. The impact of the positivity assumption was also assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 5,148 relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients were included. In this well-powered sample, the 95% confidence intervals of the estimates overlapped widely. Propensity scores weighting and propensity scores matching procedures led to consistent results. Some differences were observed between average treatment effect for the entire population and average treatment effect for treated estimates. Intention-to-treat analyses were more conservative than per-protocol analyses. The most pronounced irregularities in outcomes and propensity scores were introduced by violation of the positivity assumption. CONCLUSIONS: This applied study elucidates the influence of methodological decisions on the results of comparative effectiveness studies of treatments for multiple sclerosis. According to our results, there are no material differences between conclusions obtained with propensity scores matching or propensity scores weighting given that a study is sufficiently powered, models are correctly specified and positivity assumption is fulfilled.

Anti-inflammatory disease-modifying treatment and disability progression in primary progressive multiple sclerosis: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Treatment options in primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) are scarce and, with the exception of ocrelizumab, anti-inflammatory agents have failed to show efficacy in ameliorating disability progression. The aim of this study was to investigate a potential effect of anti-inflammatory disease-modifying treatment on disability outcomes in PPMS. METHODS: Using MSBase, a large, international, observational database, we identified patients with PPMS who were either never treated or treated with a disease-modifying agent. Propensity score matching was used to select subpopulations with similar baseline characteristics. Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) outcomes were compared with an intention-to-treat and an as-treated approach in paired, pairwise-censored analyses. RESULTS: Of the 1284 included patients, 533 were matched (treated, n = 195; untreated n = 338). Median on-study pairwise-censored follow-up was 3.4 years (quartiles 1.2-5.5). No difference in the hazard of experiencing 3-month confirmed EDSS progression events was observed between the groups [hazard ratio (HR), 1.0; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.6-1.7, P = 0.87]. We did not find significant differences in the hazards of confirmed EDSS improvement (HR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.6-1.6, P = 0.91) or reaching a confirmed EDSS step ≥7 (HR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.7-1.6, P = 0.69). CONCLUSION: Our pooled analysis of disease-modifying agents suggests that these therapies have no substantial effect on short- to medium-term disability outcomes in PPMS.

Survey of diagnostic and treatment practices for multiple sclerosis (MS) in Europe. Part 2: Progressive MS, paediatric MS, pregnancy and general management.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The European Charcot Foundation supported the development of a set of surveys to understand current practice patterns for the diagnosis and management of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Europe. Part 2 of the report summarizes survey results related to secondary progressive MS (SPMS), primary progressive MS (PPMS), pregnancy, paediatric MS and overall patient management. METHODS: A steering committee of MS neurologists developed case- and practice-based questions for two sequential surveys distributed to MS neurologists throughout Europe. RESULTS: Respondents generally favoured changing rather than stopping disease-modifying treatment (DMT) in patients transitioning from relapsing-remitting MS to SPMS, particularly with active disease. Respondents would not initiate DMT in patients with typical PPMS symptoms, although the presence of ≥1 spinal cord or brain gadolinium-enhancing lesion might affect that decision. For patients considering pregnancy, respondents were equally divided on whether to stop treatment before or after conception. Respondents strongly favoured starting DMT in paediatric MS with active disease; recommended treatments included interferon, glatiramer acetate and, in John Cunningham virus negative patients, natalizumab. Additional results regarding practice-based questions and management are summarized. CONCLUSIONS: Results of part 2 of the survey of diagnostic and treatment practices for MS in Europe largely mirror results for part 1, with neurologists in general agreement about the treatment and management of SPMS, PPMS, pregnancy and paediatric MS as well as the general management of MS. However, there are also many areas of disagreement, indicating the need for evidence-based recommendations and/or guidelines.

ECTRIMS/EAN guideline on the pharmacological treatment of people with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex disease of the central nervous system. As new drugs are becoming available, knowledge on diagnosis and treatment must continuously evolve. There is therefore a need for a reference tool compiling current data on benefit and safety, to aid professionals in treatment decisions and use of resources across Europe. The European Committee of Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis (ECTRIMS) and the European Academy of Neurology (EAN) have joined forces to meet this need. The objective was to develop an evidence-based clinical practice guideline for the pharmacological treatment of people with MS to guide healthcare professionals in the decision-making process. METHODS: This guideline has been developed using the GRADE methodology and following the recently updated EAN recommendations for guideline development. Clinical questions were formulated in PICO format (patient, intervention, comparator, outcome) and outcomes were prioritized according to their relevance to clinical practice. An exhaustive literature search up to December 2016 was performed for each question and the evidence is presented narratively and, when possible, combined in a meta-analysis using a random-effects model. The quality of evidence for each outcome was rated into four categories - very high, high, low and very low - according to the risk of bias. GRADE evidence profiles were created using GRADEprofiler (GRADEpro) software (Version 3.6). The recommendations with assigned strength (strong, weak) were formulated based on the quality of evidence and the risk-benefit balance. Consensus between the panellists was reached by use of the modified nominal group technique. RESULTS: A total of 10 questions have been agreed, encompassing treatment efficacy, response criteria, strategies to address suboptimal response and safety concerns and treatment strategies in MS and pregnancy. The guideline takes into account all disease-modifying drugs approved by the European Medicine Agency at the time of publication. A total of 20 recommendations were agreed by the guideline working group members after three rounds of consensus.

Effect of delayed-release dimethyl fumarate on no evidence of disease activity in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: integrated analysis of the phase III DEFINE and CONFIRM studies.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Significant effects on clinical/neuroradiological disease activity have been reported in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis treated with delayed-release dimethyl fumarate (DMF) in phase III DEFINE/CONFIRM trials. We conducted a post hoc analysis of integrated data from DEFINE/CONFIRM to evaluate the effect of DMF on achieving no evidence of disease activity (NEDA) in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. METHODS: The analysis included patients randomized to DMF 240 mg twice daily, placebo or glatiramer acetate (CONFIRM only) for ≤2 years. A time-to-event method was used to estimate the percentage of patients achieving NEDA. Clinical NEDA (no relapses/no 12-week confirmed disability progression) was analysed in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. Neuroradiological (no new/newly enlarging T2 hyperintense lesions/no gadolinium-enhancing lesions) and overall NEDA (clinical and neuroradiological NEDA) were analysed in the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) cohort. RESULTS: The ITT and MRI populations comprised 1540 and 692 patients, respectively. The percentage of patients with clinical NEDA (ITT population) and neuroradiological NEDA (MRI cohort) was higher with DMF versus placebo over 2 years [clinical NEDA: 38.9% relative reduction; hazard ratio (HR), 0.61; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.52-0.72; P < 0.0001; neuroradiological NEDA: 40.0% relative reduction; HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.49-0.73; P < 0.0001]. The percentage of patients achieving overall NEDA (MRI cohort) was also higher with DMF (26%) versus placebo (12%) over 2 years, with a relative risk reduction of 42.7% (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.48-0.69; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: A significantly higher percentage of patients treated with DMF achieved NEDA status over 2 years compared with placebo.

Survey of diagnostic and treatment practices for multiple sclerosis in Europe.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Up-to-date information is needed on the extent to which neurologists treating multiple sclerosis (MS) in Europe are integrating rapidly evolving diagnostic criteria, disease-modifying therapies and recommendations for monitoring disease activity into their clinical practice. METHODS: A steering committee of MS neurologists used a modified Delphi process to develop case- and practice-based questions for two sequential surveys distributed to MS neurologists throughout Europe. Case-based questions were developed for radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS), clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and RRMS with breakthrough disease. RESULTS: Multiple sclerosis neurologists from 11 European countries responded to survey 1 (n = 233) and survey 2 (n = 171). Respondents agreed that they would not treat the patients in the RIS or CIS cases but would treat a patient with a relatively mild form of RRMS. Choice of treatment was evenly distributed among first-line injectables and oral treatments for mild RRMS, and moved to second-line treatment as the RRMS case increased in severity. Additional results on RRMS with breakthrough disease are presented. CONCLUSIONS: Although there was general agreement on some aspects of treatment, responses to other management and clinical practice questions varied considerably. These results, which reflect current clinical practice patterns, highlight the need for additional MS treatment education and awareness and may help inform the development of MS practice guidelines in Europe.

Identification of multiple sclerosis patients at highest risk of cognitive impairment using an integrated brain magnetic resonance imaging assessment approach.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: While impaired cognitive performance is common in multiple sclerosis (MS), it has been largely underdiagnosed. Here a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) screening algorithm is proposed to identify patients at highest risk of cognitive impairment. The objective was to examine whether assessment of lesion burden together with whole brain atrophy on MRI improves our ability to identify cognitively impaired MS patients. METHODS: Of the 1253 patients enrolled in the study, 1052 patients with all cognitive, volumetric MRI and clinical data available were included in the analysis. Brain MRI and neuropsychological assessment with the Brief International Cognitive Assessment for Multiple Sclerosis were performed. Multivariable logistic regression and individual prediction analysis were used to investigate the associations between MRI markers and cognitive impairment. The results of the primary analysis were validated at two subsequent time points (months 12 and 24). RESULTS: The prevalence of cognitive impairment was greater in patients with low brain parenchymal fraction (BPF) (<0.85) and high T2 lesion volume (T2-LV) (>3.5 ml) than in patients with high BPF (>0.85) and low T2-LV (<3.5 ml), with an odds ratio (OR) of 6.5 (95% CI 4.4-9.5). Low BPF together with high T2-LV identified in 270 (25.7%) patients predicted cognitive impairment with 83% specificity, 82% negative predictive value, 51% sensitivity and 75% overall accuracy. The risk of confirmed cognitive decline over the follow-up was greater in patients with high T2-LV (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-3.8) and low BPF (OR 2.6; 95% CI 1.4-4.7). CONCLUSIONS: The integrated MRI assessment of lesion burden and brain atrophy may improve the stratification of MS patients who may benefit from cognitive assessment.

Toxocara spp. seronegativity in Czech patients with early form of multiple sclerosis - clinically isolated syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Helminth infections were reported to slightly modulate the host immune system response and decrease the risk of an autoimmune disorder, but on the other hand any infection may activate the immune system and trigger autoimmune reaction. In this study, we aimed to measure eosinophil levels and antibodies against Toxocara spp. in patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: In total, 220 CIS patients and 62 MS patients were examined. Antibodies against Toxocara secretory/excretory antigens (TES) were measured with an ELISA method. RESULTS: A total of 1,983 measurements of eosinophil levels were performed in CIS patients, out of which 95 results in 21 different patients were above the upper normal limit of the laboratory, but it was mostly only a relative increase. Two patients showed eosinophil levels above 20 % but both of them suffered from severe allergy. None of the CIS patients had any clinical signs of parasitic infections and the serological tests for antibodies against Toxocara were all negative. In all MS patients, eosinophil levels were in normal range. Antibodies against TES were detected in only 1 out of 62 (1.6%) MS patients. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our results it does not seem that Toxocara infection represents a potential trigger of MS. Nevertheless, our study indirectly confirms the hypothesis that parasitic infection may protect from autoimmunity.

Daclizumab high-yield process reduced the evolution of new gadolinium-enhancing lesions to T1 black holes in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In the SELECT study, treatment with daclizumab high-yield process (DAC HYP) versus placebo reduced the frequency of gadolinium-enhancing (Gd(+) ) lesions in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). The objective of this post hoc analysis of SELECT was to evaluate the effect of DAC HYP on the evolution of new Gd(+) lesions to T1 hypointense lesions (T1 black holes). METHODS: SELECT was a randomized double-blind study of subcutaneous DAC HYP 150 or 300 mg or placebo every 4 weeks. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were performed at baseline and weeks 24, 36 and 52 in all patients and monthly between weeks 4 and 20 in a subset of patients. MRI scans were evaluated for new Gd(+) lesions that evolved to T1 black holes at week 52. Data for the DAC HYP groups were pooled for analysis. RESULTS: Daclizumab high-yield process reduced the number of new Gd(+) lesions present at week 24 (P = 0.005) or between weeks 4 and 20 (P = 0.014) that evolved into T1 black holes at week 52 versus placebo. DAC HYP treatment also reduced the percentage of patients with Gd(+) lesions evolving to T1 black holes versus placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with DAC HYP reduced the evolution of Gd(+) lesions to T1 black holes versus placebo, suggesting that inflammatory lesions that evolved during DAC HYP treatment are less destructive than those evolving during placebo treatment.

Risk of early relapse following the switch from injectables to oral agents for multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Early relapse outcomes in long-term stable patients switching from interferon ß/glatiramer acetate (IFNß/GA) to oral therapy are unknown. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare early relapse and progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients switching to oral therapy following a period of stable disease on IFNß/GA, relative to a propensity-matched comparator of patients remaining on IFNß/GA. METHODS: The MSBase cohort study is a global, longitudinal registry for MS. Time to first 6-month relapse in previously stable MS patients switching from platform injectables ('switchers') to oral agents were compared with propensity-matched patients remaining on IFNß/GA ('stayers') using a Cox marginal model. RESULTS: Three-hundred and ninety-six switchers were successfully matched to 396 stayers on a 1:1 basis. There was no difference in the proportion of patients recording at least one relapse in the first 1-6 months by treatment arm (7.3% switchers, 6.6% stayers; P = 0.675). The mean annualized relapse rate (P = 0.493) and the rate of first 6-month relapse by treatment arm (hazard ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 0.70, 2.11) were also comparable. There was no difference in the rate of disability progression by treatment arm (hazard ratio 1.43, 95% confidence interval 0.63, 3.26). CONCLUSION: This is the first study to compare early relapse switch probability in the period immediately following switch to oral treatment in a population previously stable on injectable therapy. There was no evidence of disease reactivation within the first 6 months of switching to oral therapy.

Standardizing terms, definitions and concepts for describing and interpreting unwanted immunogenicity of biopharmaceuticals: recommendations of the Innovative Medicines Initiative ABIRISK consortium.

Biopharmaceuticals (BPs) represent a rapidly growing class of approved and investigational drug therapies that is contributing significantly to advancing treatment in multiple disease areas, including inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, genetic deficiencies and cancer. Unfortunately, unwanted immunogenic responses to BPs, in particular those affecting clinical safety or efficacy, remain among the most common negative effects associated with this important class of drugs. To manage and reduce risk of unwanted immunogenicity, diverse communities of clinicians, pharmaceutical industry and academic scientists are involved in: interpretation and management of clinical and biological outcomes of BP immunogenicity, improvement of methods for describing, predicting and mitigating immunogenicity risk and elucidation of underlying causes. Collaboration and alignment of efforts across these communities is made difficult due to lack of agreement on concepts, practices and standardized terms and definitions related to immunogenicity. The Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI; www.imi-europe.org), ABIRISK consortium [Anti-Biopharmaceutical (BP) Immunization Prediction and Clinical Relevance to Reduce the Risk; www.abirisk.eu] was formed by leading clinicians, academic scientists and EFPIA (European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations) members to elucidate underlying causes, improve methods for immunogenicity prediction and mitigation and establish common definitions around terms and concepts related to immunogenicity. These efforts are expected to facilitate broader collaborations and lead to new guidelines for managing immunogenicity. To support alignment, an overview of concepts behind the set of key terms and definitions adopted to date by ABIRISK is provided herein along with a link to access and download the ABIRISK terms and definitions and provide comments (http://www.abirisk.eu/index_t_and_d.asp).

'Hidden' factors influencing quality of life in patients with multiple sclerosis.

Traditional outcome measures for patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), whether in clinical trials or clinical practice, are currently in question. The combination of relapses, physical disability progression and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) disease activity reflect only part of the impact that MS has on a patient's daily life. Quality of life (QoL) is considered by many to be the ideal outcome measure. Since it captures the patient's own perspective of well-being, QoL should be the primary focus when evaluating a patient and the main objective of MS management. Nevertheless, whilst numerous instruments to measure QoL in MS patients are available or proposed, there is no current consensus regarding which is the best tool to use and under what circumstances. QoL in patients with MS is determined by several factors beyond the more obvious; these include coping with the MS diagnosis, understanding the disease and the disease process, dealing with so-called 'hidden' symptoms such as fatigue, cognitive impairment and sexual disturbances, and managing the many associated personal challenges such as social isolation, family issues and working difficulties. Evidence is emerging that psychological interventions may be beneficial in MS patients although more research is required to confirm their utility. This article examines some factors that influence QoL in MS patients which may be overlooked in the general busyness of routine clinical practice.

Impaired ambulation and steroid therapy impact negatively on bone health in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis is higher amongst patients with multiple sclerosis in comparison with the general population. In addition to the general determinants of bone health, two factors may contribute to reduced bone mineral density in multiple sclerosis: physical disability and corticosteroid therapy. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of physical disability and steroid exposure on bone health in weight-bearing bones and spine and on the incidence of low-trauma fractures in multiple sclerosis. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data, associations between bone mineral density (at the femoral neck, total femur and the lumbar spine) and its change with disability or cumulative steroid dose were evaluated with random-effect models adjusted for demographic and clinical determinants of bone health. The incidence of low-trauma fractures during the study follow-up was evaluated with Andersen-Gill models. RESULTS: Overall, 474 and 438 patients were included in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses (follow-up 2347 patient-years), respectively. The effect of severely impaired gait was more apparent in weight-bearing bones (P ≤ 10(-15) ) than in spine (P = 0.007). The effect of cumulative steroid dose was relatively less pronounced but diffuse (P ≤ 10(-4) ). Risk of low-trauma fractures was associated with disability (P = 0.02) but not with cumulative steroid exposure and was greater amongst patients with severely impaired gait (annual risk 3.5% vs. 3.0%). Synergistic effects were found only between cumulative steroid dose in patients ambulatory without support (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Bone health and the incidence of low-trauma fractures in multiple sclerosis are more related to impaired gait than to extended corticosteroid therapy.

Natalizumab improves ambulation in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: results from the prospective TIMER study and a retrospective analysis of AFFIRM.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Impaired ambulation is a prominent disabling symptom of multiple sclerosis and can lead to reduced quality of life. Whether natalizumab, a monoclonal antibody shown to reduce disease activity in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, could impact ambulation performance was examined. METHODS: A prospective open-label study, TIMER, was conducted in natalizumab-naive patients (n = 215). The timed 25-foot walk (T25FW) and timed 100-m walk (T100MW) were assessed at baseline and at weeks 24 and 48 of natalizumab therapy, together with Expanded Disability Status Scale scores. The effects of natalizumab on T25FW performance were also examined in a retrospective analysis of natalizumab-treated patients (n = 627) and placebo control patients (n = 315) from the AFFIRM study. RESULTS: In TIMER, a significant increase from baseline in T25FW speed was seen at week 24 (P = 0.0074) and in T100MW speed at weeks 24 and 48 (both P < 0.001). A greater proportion of patients showed clinically meaningful increases (≥20%) in walking speed on the T100MW (25%) than on the T25FW (13%) at week 48 (P = 0.032). In AFFIRM, natalizumab increased the proportion of patients with ≥20% confirmed improvement in T25FW speed at year 2 by 78% versus placebo (P = 0.0133). CONCLUSIONS: Natalizumab increased walking speed in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The T100MW may be more sensitive to changes in ambulation capacity than the T25FW, and both tests appear to detect clinically meaningful improvements in ambulatory function.

Early magnetic resonance imaging predictors of clinical progression after 48 months in clinically isolated syndrome patients treated with intramuscular interferon ß-1a.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Our aim was to identify early imaging surrogate markers of clinical progression in patients after the first demyelinating event suggestive of multiple sclerosis treated with weekly intramuscular interferon ß-1a. In a prospective observational study, the predictive role of baseline and 6-month changes in magnetic resonance imaging outcomes was investigated with respect to relapse activity and development of confirmed disability progression in patients after 48 months. METHODS: This study examined 210 patients. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse predictors of relapse activity and confirmed disability progression after 48 months. RESULTS: Greater T2 lesion volume [hazard ratio (HR) 1.81; P = 0.005] and the presence of contrast-enhancing lesions (HR 2.13; P < 0.001) at baseline were significantly associated with increased cumulative risk of a second clinical attack over 48 months. A greater decrease of the corpus callosum volume (HR 2.74; P = 0.001) and greater lateral ventricle volume enlargement (HR 2.43; P = 0.002) at 6 months relative to baseline were associated with increased cumulative risk of a second clinical attack between months 6 and 48. In addition, increased risk of confirmed disability progression over 48 months in patients with greater lateral ventricle volume enlargement between baseline and 6 months (HR 4.70; P = 0.001) was detected. CONCLUSIONS: A greater T2 lesion volume, the presence of contrast-enhancing lesions at baseline, decrease of corpus callosum volume and lateral ventricle volume enlargement over the first 6 months in patients after the first demyelinating event treated with weekly intramuscular interferon ß-1a may assist in identification of patients with the highest risk of a second clinical attack and progression of disability.

BREMSO: a simple score to predict early the natural course of multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Early prediction of long-term disease evolution is a major challenge in the management of multiple sclerosis (MS). Our aim was to predict the natural course of MS using the Bayesian Risk Estimate for MS at Onset (BREMSO), which gives an individual risk score calculated from demographic and clinical variables collected at disease onset. METHODS: An observational study was carried out collecting data from MS patients included in MSBase, an international registry. Disease impact was studied using the Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) and time to secondary progression (SP). To evaluate the natural history of the disease, patients were analysed only if they did not receive immune therapies or only up to the time of starting these therapies. RESULTS: Data from 14 211 patients were analysed. The median BREMSO score was significantly higher in the subgroups of patients whose disease had a major clinical impact (MSSS≥ third quartile vs. ≤ first quartile, P < 0.00001) and who reached SP (P < 0.00001). The BREMSO showed good specificity (79%) as a tool for predicting the clinical impact of MS. CONCLUSIONS: BREMSO is a simple tool which can be used in the early stages of MS to predict its evolution, supporting therapeutic decisions in an observational setting.

Effectiveness of tixagevimab/cilgavimab (Evusheld) in antiCD20­treated patients with multiple sclerosis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder.

BACKGROUND: AntiCD20 therapy, such as rituximab, ocrelizumab, or ofatumumab, effectively treats patients with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) or neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (pwNMOSD) but negatively affects the humoral immune response to COVID-19 vaccination. One strategy to protect these patients is using tixagevimab/cilgavimab (T/C) as pre-exposure prophylaxis. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of T/C on the incidence of COVID-19 in pwMS and pwNMOSD. METHODS: Data in this observational cohort study were collected in two Czech MS centres through ReMuS registry between March 1, 2020 and December 31, 2022. Adult pwMS and pwNMOSD who were (1) treated with antiCD20 therapy at least six months before T/C administration, or at least from February 1, 2022 in the control group; (2) were already on antiCD20 therapy at the time of vaccination or COVID-19 infection; and (3) were on antiCD20 therapy at least 100 days after T/C, or at least 90 days after August 1, 2022 in the control group, were included. Analysis was performed using frequency-based (propensity score matching) and Bayesian statistical methods (informative and non-informative priors). RESULTS: Using propensity score matching 1:1, 47 patients who received T/C (mean age 45.7 years, median disease duration 12.5 years) were matched with those who did not receive T/C (n = 341; mean age 46.6 years, median disease duration 11.4 years) based on age, MS/NMOSD duration, and number of vaccine doses. None of the T/C patients and three in the control matched group, developed COVID-19 between 10 and 100 days after receiving T/C, August 1, 2022, respectively. The frequency of COVID-19 was not significantly different between groups (p = 0.242). Due to the low number of patients, a Bayesian analysis was also added. Using a non-informative Bayesian prior, the median relative risk of COVID-19 after T/C was 7.6 % (95 % CrI 0.02-115.9 %). The posterior probability of risk difference lower than zero was 96.4 %. Using an informative prior (based on the registration study of Evusheld), the median relative risk of COVID-19 after T/C was 20.2 % (95 % CI 8.4-43.8 %). The posterior probability of the risk difference lower than zero was 100 %. CONCLUSION: This work highlights the possible good efficacy of T/C in antiCD20-treated pwMS and pwNMSOD. Based on Bayesian analysis with an informative prior, the T/C group's risk of COVID-19 infection was approximately 20.2 % of the control group's risk. However, given the low frequency of COVID-19, the results of this pilot analysis must be interpreted with caution.

Comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in rapidly evolving severe relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in the United Kingdom.

AIM: To evaluate the real-world comparative effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness, from a UK National Health Service perspective, of natalizumab versus fingolimod in patients with rapidly evolving severe relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RES-RRMS). METHODS: Real-world data from the MSBase Registry were obtained for patients with RES-RRMS who were previously either naive to disease-modifying therapies or had been treated with interferon-based therapies, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide (collectively known as BRACETD). Matched cohorts were selected by 3-way multinomial propensity score matching, and the annualized relapse rate (ARR) and 6-month-confirmed disability worsening (CDW6M) and improvement (CDI6M) were compared between treatment groups. Comparative effectiveness results were used in a cost-effectiveness model comparing natalizumab and fingolimod, using an established Markov structure over a lifetime horizon with health states based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Additional model data sources included the UK MS Survey 2015, published literature, and publicly available sources. RESULTS: In the comparative effectiveness analysis, we found a significantly lower ARR for patients starting natalizumab compared with fingolimod (rate ratio [RR] = 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.73) or BRACETD (RR = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.42-0.53). Similarly, CDI6M was higher for patients starting natalizumab compared with fingolimod (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25; 95% CI, 1.01-1.55) and BRACETD (HR = 1.46; 95% CI, 1.16-1.85). In patients starting fingolimod, we found a lower ARR (RR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.65-0.80) compared with starting BRACETD, but no difference in CDI6M (HR = 1.17; 95% CI, 0.91-1.50). Differences in CDW6M were not found between the treatment groups. In the base-case cost-effectiveness analysis, natalizumab dominated fingolimod (0.302 higher quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] and £17,141 lower predicted lifetime costs). Similar cost-effectiveness results were observed across sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This MSBase Registry analysis suggests that natalizumab improves clinical outcomes when compared with fingolimod, which translates to higher QALYs and lower costs in UK patients with RES-RRMS.

There are several medications used to treat people with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis, such as interferon-based therapies (Betaferon/Betaseron (US), Rebif, Avonex, Extavia), glatiramer acetate (Copaxone), teriflunomide (Aubagio), and dimethyl fumarate (Tecfidera), collectively named BRACETD. Other treatments for multiple sclerosis (MS) have a narrower use, such as natalizumab (Tysabri) or fingolimod (Gilenya), among others.This study objective was to assess how well natalizumab and fingolimod helped treating MS (clinical effectiveness) and subsequently estimate what the cost of these treatments is in comparison to the benefit they bring to people with rapidly evolving severe MS that use them in the United Kingdom (UK) (cost-effectiveness).We used an international disease registry (MSBase), which collects clinical data from people with MS in various centers around the world to compare the effectiveness of natalizumab, fingolimod and BRACETD treatments. We used a technique called propensity score matching to obtain results from comparable patient groups. People treated with natalizumab had better disease control, namely with fewer relapses and higher improvement on their disability level, than patients on fingolimod or BRACETD. Conversely, there were no differences between each group of people on a measure called disability worsening.Based on these clinical results, we built an economic model that simulates the lifetime costs and consequences of treating people with MS with natalizumab in comparison with fingolimod. We found that using natalizumab was less costly and was more effective compared to using fingolimod in UK patients.

Multiple sclerosis susceptibility loci do not alter clinical and MRI outcomes in clinically isolated syndrome.

It has not yet been established whether genetic predictors of multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility also influence disease severity and accumulation of disability. Our aim was to evaluate associations between 16 previously validated genetic susceptibility markers and MS phenotype. Patients with clinically isolated syndrome verified by positive magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and cerebrospinal fluid findings (n=179) were treated with interferon-ß. Disability and volumetric MRI parameters were evaluated regularly for 2 years. Sixteen single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously validated as predictors of MS susceptibility in our cohort and their combined weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) were tested for associations with clinical (conversion to MS, relapses and disability) and MRI disease outcomes (whole brain, grey matter and white matter volumes, corpus callosum cross-sectional area, brain parenchymal fraction, T2 and T1 lesion volumes) 2 years from disease onset using mixed-effect models. We have found no associations between the tested SNPs and the clinical or MRI outcomes. Neither the combined wGRS predicted MS activity and progression over 2-year follow-up period. Power analyses confirmed 90% power to identify clinically relevant changes in all outcome variables. We conclude that the most important MS susceptibility loci do not determine MS phenotype and disease outcomes.

Leukocyte counts in cerebrospinal fluid and blood following firategrast treatment in subjects with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Firategrast is an orally bioavailable alpha4 beta1/alpha4 beta7 integrin antagonist designed to reduce trafficking of lymphocytes into the central nervous system (CNS). This could decrease multiple sclerosis (MS) activity, but may compromise CNS immune surveillance. We aimed to quantitate the effect of firategrast treatment on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lymphocyte count and the extent/speed of recovery after its discontinuation. METHODS: Forty-six subjects with relapsing forms of MS were treated for up to 24 weeks with open-label firategrast, 900 (females) or 1200 (males) mg twice daily. CSF and blood cell counts, and lymphocyte composition were determined using flow cytometry. RESULTS: Median (n, range) CSF lymphocyte counts (cells/µl) at weeks 0, 24, 28 and 36 were: 5.3 (44, 0.3-70.2), 3.3 (31, 0.0-99.0), 3.0 (32, 0.0-58.2) and 3.5 (29, 0.0-274.8). CD4+, CD8+ T- and CD19+ B-lymphocyte counts followed a similar pattern. Minimal changes were observed for CD3-CD16+CD56+ natural killer cells. Median CD4 : CD8 ratios were: 2.9 (41, 1.1-10.9), 2.2 (29, 0.6-5.9), 3.8 (28, 1.6-9.0) and 3.8 (21, 2.1-9.4). Blood lymphocyte counts were elevated at weeks 4 and 24, consistent with the mechanism of firategrast, and returned to baseline when firategrast was discontinued. There were minimal changes in CD4 : CD8 ratios. CONCLUSIONS: Firategrast treatment was associated with modest decreases in median CSF total, CD4, CD8 and CD19 lymphocyte counts. The generally small magnitude of decreases suggests that sufficient numbers of lymphocytes can access the subarachnoid space, preserving CNS immune surveillance.