Global occurrence and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of the subtype H5N1.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses of the subtype H5N1 (HPAIV-H5N1) have circulated continuously in Asia, Europe, and Africa since 2003. Investigations on the environmental preference and global spread processes of the virus are needed. We compiled 16 environmental variables to assess their correlation with HPAIV-H5N1 occurrences by using a niche-based model called Maxent. We found the virus had the strongest positive association with the human footprint index, as well as the presence of certain types of wetlands and mild temperature (10-30 C). Outbreaks of HPAIV-H5N1 in poultry or wild birds were also more frequent in certain major habitat types (e.g., tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, temperate broadleaf and mixed forests, and flooded grasslands and savannas) and ecoregions. We conducted trend surface analysis to generate the travelling wave of the virus' global spread from 2003 to 2009, which indicated that high mountains or plateaus did not affect the spread speed and direction.

Spatial planning for a green economy: National-level hydrologic ecosystem services priority areas for Gabon.

Rapidly developing countries contain both the bulk of intact natural areas and biodiversity, and the greatest untapped natural resource stocks, placing them at the forefront of "green" economic development opportunities. However, most lack scientific tools to create development plans that account for biodiversity and ecosystem services, diminishing the real potential to be sustainable. Existing methods focus on biodiversity and carbon priority areas across large geographies (e.g., countries, states/provinces), leaving out essential services associated with water supplies, among others. These hydrologic ecosystem services (HES) are especially absent from methods applied at large geographies and in data-limited contexts. Here, we present a novel, spatially explicit, and relatively simple methodology to identify countrywide HES priority areas. We applied our methodology to the Gabonese Republic, a country undergoing a major economic transformation under a governmental commitment to balance conservation and development goals. We present the first national-scale maps of HES priority areas across Gabon for erosion control, nutrient retention, and groundwater recharge. Priority sub-watersheds covered 44% of the country's extent. Only 3% of the country was identified as a priority area for all HES simultaneously, highlighting the need to conserve different areas for each different hydrologic service. While spatial tradeoffs occur amongst HES, we identified synergies with two other conservation values, given that 66% of HES priority areas intersect regions of above average area-weighted (by sub-watersheds) total forest carbon stocks and 38% intersect with terrestrial national parks. Considering implications for development, we identified HES priority areas overlapping current or proposed major roads, forestry concessions, and active mining concessions, highlighting the need for proactive planning for avoidance areas and compensatory offsets to mitigate potential conflicts. Collectively, our results provide insight into strategies to protect HES as part of Gabon's development strategy, while providing a replicable methodology for application to new scales, geographies, and policy contexts.