Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy.

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it  provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.

Legacy and Emerging Plasticizers and Stabilizers in PVC Floorings and Implications for Recycling.

Hazardous chemicals in building and construction plastics can lead to health risks due to indoor exposure and may contaminate recycled materials. We systematically sampled new polyvinyl chloride floorings on the Swiss market (n = 151). We performed elemental analysis by X-ray fluorescence, targeted and suspect gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis of ortho-phthalates and alternative plasticizers, and bioassay tests for cytotoxicity and oxidative stress, and endocrine, mutagenic, and genotoxic activities (for selected samples). Surprisingly, 16% of the samples contained regulated chemicals above 0.1 wt %, mainly lead and bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP). Their presence is likely related to the use of recycled PVC in new flooring, highlighting that uncontrolled recycling can delay the phase-out of hazardous chemicals. Besides DEHP, 29% of the samples contained other ortho-phthalates (mainly diisononyl and diisodecyl phthalates, DiNP and DiDP) above 0.1 wt %, and 17% of the samples indicated a potential to cause biological effects. Considering some overlap between these groups, they together make up an additional 35% of the samples of potential concern. Moreover, both suspect screening and bioassay results indicate the presence of additional potentially hazardous substances. Overall, our study highlights the urgent need to accelerate the phase-out of hazardous substances, increase the transparency of chemical compositions in plastics to protect human and ecosystem health, and enable the transition to a safe and sustainable circular economy.

Can Forest Management Practices Counteract Species Loss Arising from Increasing European Demand for Forest Biomass under Climate Mitigation Scenarios?

Forests are home to many species and provide biomass for material and energy. Here, we modeled the potential global species extinction risk from future scenarios of climate mitigation and EU28 forest management. We considered the continuation of current practices, the adoption of closer-to-nature management (low-intensity practices), and set-asides (conversion to unharvested forestland) on portions of EU28 forestland under two climate mitigation pathways as well as the consequences for the wood trade. Expanding set-aside to more than 25% of EU28 currently managed forestland by 2100 increased the global extinction risk compared to the continuation of current practices. This outcome stems from a projected increase in EU forest biomass imports, partially from biodiversity-vulnerable regions to compensate for a decrease in domestic harvest. Conversely, closer-to-nature management on up to 37.5% of EU28 forestland lowered extinction risks. Increasing the internal production and partially sourcing imported biomass from low-intensity managed areas lowered the species extinction footprint even further. However, low-intensity practices could not entirely compensate for the increased extinction risk under a high climate mitigation scenario with greater demand for lignocellulosic crops and energywood. When developing climate mitigation strategies, it is crucial to assess forest biomass supply chains for the early detection of extinction risks in non-EU regions and for developing strategies to prevent increase of global impacts.

Regionalized Life Cycle Inventories of Global Sulfidic Copper Tailings.

Worldwide, an issue of copper production is the generation of mine waste with varying characteristics. This waste can pollute natural environments, and in particular, the heavy metal emissions of the tailings may pose long-term consequences. Currently, life cycle assessments of mine tailings are hampered by both limited data availability in the metal production value chain and lack of appropriate methodologies. We collect data from 431 active copper mine sites using a combination of information available from the market research and technical handbooks to develop site-specific life cycle inventories for disposal of tailings. The approach considers the influences of copper ore composition and local hydrology for dynamically estimating leached metals of tailings at each site. The analysis reveals that together, copper tailings from the large (i.e., porphyry) and medium-size copper deposits (i.e., volcanogenic massive sulfide and sediment-hosted) contribute to more than three quarters of the total global freshwater ecotoxicity impacts of copper tailings. This strongly correlates with hydrological conditions, leading to high infiltration rates. The generated inventories vary locally, even within single countries, showcasing the importance of site-specific models. Our study provides site-specific, dynamic emission models and thus improves the accuracy of tailing's inventories and toxicity-related impacts.

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Background Life Cycle Inventories.

In recent years many Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies have been conducted to quantify the environmental performance of products and services. Some of these studies propagated numerical uncertainties in underlying data to LCA results, and several applied Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to some parts of the LCA model to determine its main uncertainty drivers. However, only a few studies have tackled the GSA of complete LCA models due to the high computational cost of such analysis and the lack of appropriate methods for very high-dimensional models. This study proposes a new GSA protocol suitable for large LCA problems that, unlike existing approaches, does not make assumptions on model linearity and complexity and includes extensive validation of GSA results. We illustrate the benefits of our protocol by comparing it with an existing method in terms of filtering of noninfluential and ranking of influential uncertainty drivers and include an application example of Swiss household food consumption. We note that our protocol obtains more accurate GSA results, which leads to better understanding of LCA models, and less data collection efforts to achieve more robust estimation of environmental impacts. Implementations supporting this work are available as free and open source Python packages.

A novel machine-learning approach for evaluating rebounds-associated environmental footprint of households and application to cooperative housing.

Multiple environmental policies aim to increase resource efficiency and reduce consumption of goods and services with high environmental impact. This may lead to cost-savings and, consequently, additional consumption with environmental impacts (rebound effects). In this study, a supervised machine-learning model (i.e. an application of random forest regression) is developed to quantify consumption rebound effects. In contrast to previous approaches, it is a versatile method, which allows to estimate any income-related rebound at household level considering specific household properties and the entire profile of consumption. Socio-economic properties (e.g. income, age group) of the households are used as the independent properties for the regressor to detect the dependent consumption expenses of the households. Thus, this method can be used as a bottom-up study for understanding rebounds and developing targeted measures to prevent or reduce rebound effects. To illustrate the application of the method, it is applied to the case of cooperative housing in Switzerland. In addition to environmental goals, the cooperative aims to provide affordable housing, and the reduced rent increases the disposable income of tenants. The results show that households tend to spend the 'extra' income on housing (e.g. for larger apartments) and travel. For the former, the cooperative already has a policy in place regulating the apartment area permitted per person, which delimits induced environmental impacts. For the latter, households with lower income particularly spend their extra-money on purchase and operation of vehicles, while higher-income groups rather spend it on recreation and package holidays. Travel, housing, clothing and personal care products have highest emissions per Swiss Franc (∼0.3-0.6 kg CO2-eq/CHF). Thus, it is recommended to provide incentives for shifting these expenses to other consumption, to avoid jeopardizing environmental goals. The method was also used for a range of other applications e.g. rebounds due to energy-efficient devices to illustrate its versatility.

Deep Dive into Plastic Monomers, Additives, and Processing Aids.

A variety of chemical substances used in plastic production may be released throughout the entire life cycle of the plastic, posing risks to human health, the environment, and recycling systems. Only a limited number of these substances have been widely studied. We systematically investigate plastic monomers, additives, and processing aids on the global market based on a review of 63 industrial, scientific, and regulatory data sources. In total, we identify more than 10'000 relevant substances and categorize them based on substance types, use patterns, and hazard classifications wherever possible. Over 2'400 substances are identified as substances of potential concern as they meet one or more of the persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity criteria in the European Union. Many of these substances are hardly studied according to SciFinder (266 substances), are not adequately regulated in many parts of the world (1'327 substances), or are even approved for use in food-contact plastics in some jurisdictions (901 substances). Substantial information gaps exist in the public domain, particularly on substance properties and use patterns. To transition to a sustainable circular plastic economy that avoids the use of hazardous chemicals, concerted efforts by all stakeholders are needed, starting by increasing information accessibility.

Globally Regionalized Monthly Life Cycle Impact Assessment of Particulate Matter.

This work provides a globally regionalized approach for quantifying particulate matter (PM2.5) health impacts. Atmospheric transport and pollutant chemistry of primary particulate matter, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and ammonia (NH3) from stack emissions were modeled and used to calculate monthly high-resolution maps of global characterization factors that can be used for life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) and risk assessment. These characterization factors are applied to a global data set of coal power emissions. The results show large regional and temporal differences in health impacts per kg of emission and per amount of coal power generation (5-1300 DALY TWh-1). While small emission reductions of PM2.5 and SO2 from coal power lead to similar health benefits across densely populated areas of Asia and Europe, we find that larger emission reductions result in up to three times higher health benefits in parts of Asia because of the nonlinear health responses to pollution exposure changes. Hence, many regions in Asia benefit disproportionately much from large coal power PM2.5 and SO2 emission reductions. NOx emission reductions can lead to equally high health benefits, where unfavorable atmospheric conditions coincide with elevated NH3 background pollution and large population (e.g., in Central Europe, Indonesia, or Japan but also numerous other places).

Assessing Impacts on the Natural Resource Soil in Life Cycle Assessment: Methods for Compaction and Water Erosion.

There are currently limited life cycle impact assessment methods existing for assessing impacts on the natural resource soil. In this paper, we develop methods for the assessment of compaction and water erosion impacts within one framework, which can be expanded with additional degradation processes in the future. Our methods assess potential long-term impacts from agricultural activities on the production capacity of soils and are able to distinguish between different management choices such as machinery selection and tillage practices. Characterization factors are provided as global raster data sets at high spatial resolution (∼1 km) and for larger geographic units including uncertainties of spatial aggregation. Uncertainties due to variability of climate and weather are provided where possible. The application of the methods is demonstrated and discussed in a simplified case study. Results show that in a highly mechanized scenario of global agriculture without any conservation measures, long-term yearly soil productivity losses due to compaction and water erosion can amount to up to double-digit percentages for major crops. This confirms the relevance of compaction and water erosion impacts for agricultural LCAs.

Potential Consequences of Regional Species Loss for Global Species Richness: A Quantitative Approach for Estimating Global Extinction Probabilities.

Because the biosphere is highly heterogeneous, species diversity impacts are typically assessed at local or regional scales. Because regional species richness impact metrics refer to different species compositions, they cannot be easily compared or aggregated to global impacts. Translating regional species richness impacts into global impacts allows for comparisons between impacts and facilitates the estimation of global species extinctions. This requires a conversion (or weighting) factor that takes into account the characteristics of regionally specific species compositions. We developed a methodology for deriving such conversion factors based on species' habitat ranges, International Union for Conservation of Nature threat levels, and species richness. We call these conversion factors global extinction probabilities (GEPs) of the reference location or region. The proposed methodology allows for the calculation of GEPs for any spatial unit and species group for which data on spatial distribution are available and can be implemented in methodologies like life cycle impact assessment. Furthermore, the GEPs can be used for the identification of conservation hot spots. The results of the proposed GEPs (for various taxonomic groups) show that the risk that regional species loss may result in global species extinctions significantly differs per region and informs where irreversible biodiversity impacts are more likely to occur.

Using Data Mining To Assess Environmental Impacts of Household Consumption Behaviors.

Household consumption is a main driver of economy and might be regarded as ultimately responsible for environmental impacts occurring over the life cycle of products and services. Given that purchase decisions are made on household levels and are highly behavior-driven, the derivation of targeted environmental measures requires an understanding of household behavior patterns and the resulting environmental impacts. To provide an appropriate basis in support of effective environmental policymaking, we propose a new approach to capture the variability of lifestyle-induced environmental impacts. Lifestyle-archetypes representing prevailing consumption patterns are derived in a two-tiered clustering that applies a Ward-clustering on top of a preconditioning self-organizing map. The environmental impacts associated with specific archetypical behavior are then assessed in a hybrid life cycle assessment framework. The application of this approach to the Swiss Household Budget Survey reveals a global picture of consumption that is in line with previous studies, but also demonstrates that different archetypes can be found within similar socio-economic household types. The appearance of archetypes diverging from general macro-trends indicates that the proposed approach might be useful for an enhanced understanding of consumption patterns and for the future support of policymakers in devising effective environmental measures targeting specific consumer groups.

Biodiversity Recovery and Transformation Impacts for Wetland Biodiversity.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methods for land use take both occupation and transformation impacts into account. However, for wetlands and impacts from water consumption, it is so far not possible to account for transformation impacts. It is our goal to close this research gap, by determining wetland recovery times and developing characterization factors for transformation. To do this, we conducted a meta-analysis of 59 studies analyzing biodiversity recovery in wetlands subject to passive and active restoration. Generalized linear models were fitted to the biodiversity data and age, along with other wetland characteristics (such as elevation, latitude, or climate class), and were used as predictor variables. The results indicate that elevation, latitude, type of wetland, and restoration method have the strongest effect on recovery speed. Recovery times vary from less than one year to a maximum of 107 years with passive restoration and 105 years with active restoration. Corresponding transformation characterization factors vary between 10-14 and 10-2 species-eq·year2/m3. Finally, recognizing the relevance of this work to real-world policy issues beyond LCA, we discuss the implications of our estimated restoration times on the feasibility of "biodiversity offsetting". Offsetting utilizes restoration to replace biodiversity value lost due to development impacts. Our work can help stakeholders make informed decisions on whether offsetting represents a legitimate policy option in a particular context.

Environmental Impacts and Hotspots of Food Losses: Value Chain Analysis of Swiss Food Consumption.

Reducing food losses and waste is crucial to making our food system more efficient and sustainable. This is the first paper that quantifies the environmental impacts of food waste by distinguishing the various stages of the food value chain, 33 food categories that represent the whole food basket in Switzerland, and including food waste treatment. Environmental impacts are expressed in terms of climate change and biodiversity impacts due to water and land use. Climate change impacts of food waste are highest for fresh vegetables, due to the large amounts wasted, while the specific impact per kg is largest for beef. Biodiversity impacts are mainly caused by cocoa and coffee (16% of total) and by beef (12%). Food waste at the end of the food value chain (households and food services) causes almost 60% of the total climate impacts of food waste, because of the large quantities lost at this stage and the higher accumulated impacts per kg of product. The net environmental benefits from food waste treatment are only 5-10% of the impacts from production and supply of the wasted food. Thus, avoiding food waste should be a first-line priority, while optimizing the method of treatment is less relevant.

LCIA framework and cross-cutting issues guidance within the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative.

Increasing needs for decision support and advances in scientific knowledge within life cycle assessment (LCA) led to substantial efforts to provide global guidance on environmental life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) indicators under the auspices of the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative. As part of these efforts, a dedicated task force focused on addressing several LCIA cross-cutting issues as aspects spanning several impact categories, including spatiotemporal aspects, reference states, normalization and weighting, and uncertainty assessment. Here, findings of the cross-cutting issues task force are presented along with an update of the existing UNEP-SETAC LCIA emission-to-damage framework. Specific recommendations are provided with respect to metrics for human health (Disability Adjusted Life Years, DALY) and ecosystem quality (Potentially Disappeared Fraction of species, PDF). Additionally, we stress the importance of transparent reporting of characterization models, reference states, and assumptions, in order to facilitate cross-comparison between chosen methods and indicators. We recommend developing spatially regionalized characterization models, whenever the nature of impacts shows spatial variability and related spatial data are available. Standard formats should be used for reporting spatially differentiated models, and choices regarding spatiotemporal scales should be clearly communicated. For normalization, we recommend using external normalization references. Over the next two years, the task force will continue its effort with a focus on providing guidance for LCA practitioners on how to use the UNEP-SETAC LCIA framework as well as for method developers on how to consistently extend and further improve this framework.

Are Wave and Tidal Energy Plants New Green Technologies?

Wave and tidal energy plants are upcoming, potentially green technologies. This study aims at quantifying their various potential environmental impacts. Three tidal stream devices, one tidal range plant and one wave energy harnessing device are analyzed over their entire life cycles, using the ReCiPe 2008 methodology at midpoint level. The impacts of the tidal range plant were on average 1.6 times higher than the ones of hydro-power plants (without considering natural land transformation). A similar ratio was found when comparing the results of the three tidal stream devices to offshore wind power plants (without considering water depletion). The wave energy harnessing device had on average 3.5 times higher impacts than offshore wind power. On the contrary, the considered plants have on average 8 (wave energy) to 20 (tidal stream), or even 115 times (tidal range) lower impact than electricity generated from coal power. Further, testing the sensitivity of the results highlighted the advantage of long lifetimes and small material requirements. Overall, this study supports the potential of wave and tidal energy plants as alternative green technologies. However, potential unknown effects, such as the impact of turbulence or noise on marine ecosystems, should be further explored in future research.

Spatially Explicit Analysis of Biodiversity Loss Due to Global Agriculture, Pasture and Forest Land Use from a Producer and Consumer Perspective.

Anthropogenic land use to produce commodities for human consumption is the major driver of global biodiversity loss. Synergistic collaboration between producers and consumers in needed to halt this trend. In this study, we calculate species loss on 5 min × 5 min grid level and per country due to global agriculture, pasture and forestry by combining high-resolution land use data with countryside species area relationship for mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Results show that pasture was the primary driver of biodiversity loss in Madagascar, China and Brazil, while forest land use contributed the most to species loss in DR Congo and Indonesia. Combined with the yield data, we quantified the biodiversity impacts of 1 m(3) of roundwood produced in 139 countries, concluding that tropical countries with low timber yield and a large presence of vulnerable species suffer the highest impact. We also calculated impacts per kg for 160 crops grown in different countries and linked it with FAO food trade data to assess the biodiversity impacts embodied in Swiss food imports. We found that more than 95% of Swiss consumption impacts rest abroad with cocoa, coffee and palm oil imports being responsible for majority of damage.

Criticality of Water: Aligning Water and Mineral Resources Assessment.

The concept of criticality has been used to assess whether a resource may become a limiting factor to economic activities. It has been primarily applied to nonrenewable resources, in particular to metals. However, renewable resources such as water may also be overused and become a limiting factor. In this paper, we therefore developed a water criticality method that allows for a new, user-oriented assessment of water availability and accessibility. Comparability of criticality across resources is desirable, which is why the presented adaptation of the criticality approach to water is based on a metal criticality method, whose basic structure is maintained. With respect to the necessary adaptations to the water context, a transparent water criticality framework is proposed that may pave the way for future integrated criticality assessment of metals, water, and other resources. Water criticality scores were calculated for 159 countries subdivided into 512 geographic units for the year 2000. Results allow for a detailed analysis of criticality profiles, revealing locally specific characteristics of water criticality. This is useful for the screening of sites and their related water criticality, for indication of water related problems and possible mitigation options and water policies, and for future water scenario analysis.

Quantifying Land Use Impacts on Biodiversity: Combining Species-Area Models and Vulnerability Indicators.

Habitat degradation and subsequent biodiversity damage often take place far from the place of consumption because of globalization and the increasing level of international trade. Informing consumers and policy makers about the biodiversity impacts "hidden" in the life cycle of imported products is an important step toward achieving sustainable consumption patterns. Spatially explicit methods are needed in life cycle assessment to accurately quantify biodiversity impacts of products and processes. We use the Countryside species-area relationship (SAR) to quantify regional species loss due to land occupation and transformation for five taxa and six land use types in 804 terrestrial ecoregions. Further, we calculate vulnerability scores for each ecoregion based on the fraction of each species' geographic range (endemic richness) hosted by the ecoregion and the IUCN assigned threat level of each species. Vulnerability scores are multiplied with SAR-predicted regional species loss to estimate potential global extinctions per unit of land use. As a case study, we assess the land use biodiversity impacts of 1 kg of bioethanol produced using six different feed stocks in different parts of the world. Results show that the regions with highest biodiversity impacts differed markedly when the vulnerability of species was included.

Environmental Impact of Buildings--What Matters?

The goal of this study was to identify drivers of environmental impact and quantify their influence on the environmental performance of wooden and massive residential and office buildings. We performed a life cycle assessment and used thermal simulation to quantify operational energy demand and to account for differences in thermal inertia of building mass. Twenty-eight input parameters, affecting operation, design, material, and exogenic building properties were sampled in a Monte Carlo analysis. To determine sensitivity, we calculated the correlation between each parameter and the resulting life cycle inventory and impact assessment scores. Parameters affecting operational energy demand and energy conversion are the most influential for the building's total environmental performance. For climate change, electricity mix, ventilation rate, heating system, and construction material rank the highest. Thermal inertia results in an average 2-6% difference in heat demand. Nonrenewable cumulative energy demand of wooden buildings is 18% lower, compared to a massive variant. Total cumulative energy demand is comparable. The median climate change impact is 25% lower, including end-of-life material credits and 22% lower, when credits are excluded. The findings are valid for small offices and residential buildings in Switzerland and regions with similar building culture, construction material production, and climate.

High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.