Disease burden of main bacterial infections in Japan, 2015-2020: A population-level study.

INTRODUCTION: Comprehensive evidence about the burden of infectious diseases in the Western Pacific Region is scarce. We thus examined the disease burden of infectious diseases in Japan in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). METHODS: We extracted national claims data from Japan's universal health insurance system to estimate the burden of disease for selected infections between 2015 and 2020 using DALYs. The mortality rate, disability duration and severity weight of each disease were estimated based on national data and literature reviews. RESULTS: Disease burden per 100,000 population was 1307.0 in 2015 and 972.1 in 2020 for bloodstream infections (BSI), 796.5 DALYs in 2015 and 498.9 DALYs in 2020 for pneumonia, 171.5 in 2015 and 149.4 in 2020 for meningitis and 11.6 in 2015 and 11.4 in 2020 for urinary tract infections (UTI). Only surgical site infections (SSI) showed a slightly increasing trend over the 5-year period, from 2.2 in 2015 to 2.8 in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that the disease burden of the five major infectious diseases was higher in Japan than in other countries. However, while the burden of SSI increased, the burden of pneumonia, meningitis, BSI and UTI gradually decreased year on year. The possible causes of the decreased morbidity should be examined in future work.

Blood Pressure, Hypertension, and the Risk of Aortic Dissection Incidence and Mortality: Results From the J-SCH Study, the UK Biobank Study, and a Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension or elevated blood pressure (BP) is an important risk factor for aortic dissection (AD); however, few prospective studies on this topic have been published. We investigated the association between hypertension/elevated BP and AD in 2 cohorts and conducted a meta-analysis of published prospective studies, including these 2 studies. METHODS: We analyzed data from the J-SHC study (Japan-Specific Health Checkups) and UK Biobank, which prospectively followed up 534 378 and 502 424 participants, respectively. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for the association of hypertension/elevated BP with AD incidence in the UK Biobank and AD mortality in the J-SHC Study. In the meta-analysis, summary relative risks were calculated with random-effects models. A potential nonlinear dose-response relationship between BP and AD was tested with fractional polynomial models, and the best-fitting second-order fractional polynomial regression model was determined. RESULTS: In the J-SHC study and UK Biobank, there were 84 and 182 ADs during the 4- and 9-year follow-up, and the adjusted hazard ratios of AD were 3.57 (95% CI, 2.17-6.11) and 2.68 (95% CI, 1.78-4.04) in hypertensive individuals, 1.33 (95% CI, 1.05-1.68) and 1.27 (95% CI, 1.11-1.48) per 20-mm Hg increase in systolic BP (SBP), and 1.67 (95% CI, 1.40-2.00) and 1.66 (95% CI, 1.46-1.89) per 10-mm Hg increase in diastolic BP (DBP), respectively. In the meta-analysis, the summary relative risks were 3.07 (95% CI, 2.15-4.38, I2=76.7%, n=7 studies, 2818 ADs, 4 563 501 participants) for hypertension and 1.39 (95% CI, 1.16-1.66, I2=47.7%, n=3) and 1.79 (95% CI: 1.51-2.12, I2 = 57.0%, n=3) per 20-mm Hg increase in SBP and per 10-mm Hg increase in DBP, respectively. The AD risk showed a strong, positive dose-response relationship with SBP and even more so with DBP. The risk of AD in the nonlinear dose-response analysis was significant at SBP >132 mm Hg and DBP >75 mm Hg. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension and elevated SBP and DBP are associated with a high risk of AD. The risk of AD was positively dose dependent, even within the normal BP range. These findings provide further evidence for the optimization of BP to prevent AD.

Temporal trends in mortality of aortic dissection and rupture in the UK, Japan, the USA and Canada.

OBJECTIVE: Aortic dissection and aortic aneurysm rupture are aortic emergencies and their clinical outcomes have improved over the past two decades; however, whether this has translated into lower mortality across countries remains an open question. The purpose of this study was to compare mortality trends from aortic dissection and rupture between the UK, Japan, the USA and Canada. METHODS: We analysed the WHO mortality database to determine trends in mortality from aortic dissection and rupture in four countries from 2000 to 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 persons were calculated, and annual percentage change was estimated using joinpoint regression. RESULTS: Age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 persons from aortic dissection and rupture in 2019 were 1.04 and 1.80 in the UK, 2.66 and 1.16 in Japan, 0.76 and 0.52 in the USA, and 0.67 and 0.81 in Canada, respectively. There was significantly decreasing trends in age-standardised mortality from aortic rupture in all four countries and decreasing trends in age-standardised mortality from aortic dissection in the UK over the study period. There was significantly increasing trends in mortality from aortic dissection in Japan over the study period. Joinpoint regression identified significant changes in the aortic dissection trends from decreasing to increasing in the USA from 2010 and Canada from 2012. In sensitivity analyses stratified by sex, similar trends were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Trends in mortality from aortic rupture are decreasing; however, mortality from aortic dissection is increasing in Japan, the USA and Canada. Further study to explain these trends is warranted.

Age period cohort analysis of rheumatic heart disease in high-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: Rheumatic heart disease is considered well-controlled in high-income countries; however, its actual trends in mortality remain unclarified. We analyzed trends in mortality from rheumatic heart disease in association with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS: We analyzed the WHO mortality database to determine trends in mortality from rheumatic heart disease in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Australia, USA, and Canada from 2000 to 2020. We used age-cohort-period modeling to estimate cohort and period effects. Net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group) and heterogeneity were calculated. RESULTS: In the most recent year, crude mortality rates and age-standardized mortality rates ranged from 1.10 in the USA to 6.17 in Germany, and 0.32 (95% CI 0.31-0.34) in Japan and 1.70 (95% CI 1.65-1.75) in Germany, respectively. During the observation period, while Germany had a constant trend in overall annual percentage change, all the other countries had significant decreasing trends (p < 0.0001, respectively). Annual percent change was not homogeneous across each group in all 8 countries (pheterogeneity < 0.0001), with 2 peaks in the younger and older age categories. In Germany, Italy, Australia, and Canada, we found increasing mortality rates among older patients. Improving period and cohort risks for rheumatic heart disease mortality were generally observed, excluding Germany where the period effect was worsening and the cohort effect was constant. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality trends from rheumatic heart disease were decreasing in the study high-income countries except for Germany where higher mortality and two peaks in annual percentage change in younger and older age groups warrant further investigation.

National seroepidemiological study of COVID-19 after the initial rollout of vaccines: Before and at the peak of the Omicron-dominant period in Japan.

Background: Based on routine surveillance data, Japan has been affected much less by COVID-19 compared with other countries. To validate this, we aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and examine sociodemographic factors associated with cumulative infection in Japan. Methods: A population-based serial cross-sectional seroepidemiological investigation was conducted in five prefectures in December 2021 (pre-Omicron) and February-March 2022 (Omicron [BA.1/BA.2]-peak). Anti-nucleocapsid and anti-spike antibodies were measured to detect infection-induced and vaccine/infection-induced antibodies, respectively. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between various factors and past infection. Results: Among 16 296 participants (median age: 53 [43-64] years), overall prevalence of infection-induced antibodies was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.9-2.5%) in December 2021 and 3.5% (95% CI: 3.1-3.9%) in February-March 2022. Factors associated with past infection included those residing in urban prefectures (Tokyo: aOR 3.37 [95% CI: 2.31-4.91], Osaka: aOR 3.23 [95% CI: 2.17-4.80]), older age groups (60s: aOR 0.47 [95% CI 0.29-0.74], 70s: aOR 0.41 [95% CI 0.24-0.70]), being vaccinated (twice: aOR 0.41 [95% CI: 0.28-0.61], three times: aOR 0.21 [95% CI: 0.12-0.36]), individuals engaged in occupations such as long-term care workers (aOR: 3.13 [95% CI: 1.47-6.66]), childcare workers (aOR: 3.63 [95% CI: 1.60-8.24]), food service workers (aOR: 3.09 [95% CI: 1.50-6.35]), and history of household contact (aOR: 26.4 [95% CI: 20.0-34.8]) or non-household contact (aOR: 5.21 [95% CI:3.80-7.14]) in February-March 2022. Almost all vaccinated individuals (15 670/15 681) acquired binding antibodies with higher titers among booster dose recipients. Conclusions: Before Omicron, the cumulative burden was >10 times lower in Japan (2.2%) compared with the US (33%), the UK (25%), or global estimates (45%), but most developed antibodies owing to vaccination.

Mortality trends of aortic stenosis in high-income countries from 2000 to 2020.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to describe recent mortality trends from aortic stenosis (AS) among eight high-income countries. METHODS: We analysed the WHO mortality database to determine trends in mortality from AS in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Australia, the USA and Canada from 2000 to 2020. Crude and age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 persons were calculated. We calculated age-specific mortality rates in three groups (<64, 65-79 and ≥80 years). Annual percentage change was analysed using joinpoint regression. RESULTS: During the observation period, the crude mortality rates per 100 000 persons increased in all the eight countries (from 3.47 to 5.87 in the UK, from 2.98 to 8.93 in Germany, from 3.84 to 5.52 in France, from 1.97 to 4.33 in Italy, from 1.12 to 5.49 in Japan, from 2.14 to 3.38 in Australia, from 3.58 to 4.22 in the USA and from 2.12 to 5.00 in Canada). In joinpoint regression of age-standardised mortality rates, trend changes towards a decrease were observed in Germany after 2012 (-1.2%, p=0.015), Australia after 2011 (-1.9%, p=0.005) and the USA after 2014 (-3.1%, p<0.001). Age-specific mortality rates in age group ≥80 years had shifts towards decreasing trends in all the eight countries in contrast to other younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS: While crude mortality rates increased in the eight countries, shifts towards decreasing trends were identified in age-standardised mortality rates in three countries and in the elderly aged ≥80 years in the eight countries. Further multidimensional observation is warranted to clarify the mortality trends.

The differential impact of pediatric COVID-19 between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review of fatality and ICU admission in children worldwide.

BACKGROUND: The overall global impact of COVID-19 in children and regional variability in pediatric outcomes are presently unknown. METHODS: To evaluate the magnitude of global COVID-19 death and intensive care unit (ICU) admission in children aged 0-19 years, a systematic review was conducted for articles and national reports as of December 7, 2020. This systematic review is registered with PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42020179696). RESULTS: We reviewed 16,027 articles as well as 225 national reports from 216 countries. Among the 3,788 global pediatric COVID-19 deaths, 3,394 (91.5%) deaths were reported from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), while 83.5% of pediatric population from all included countries were from LMIC. The pediatric deaths/1,000,000 children and case fatality rate (CFR) were significantly higher in LMIC than in high-income countries (HIC) (2.77 in LMIC vs 1.32 in HIC; p < 0.001 and 0.24% in LMIC vs 0.01% in HIC; p < 0.001, respectively). The ICU admission/1,000,000 children was 18.80 and 1.48 in HIC and LMIC, respectively (p < 0.001). The highest deaths/1,000,000 children and CFR were in infants < 1 year old (10.03 and 0.58% in the world, 5.39 and 0.07% in HIC and 10.98 and 1.30% in LMIC, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights that there may be a larger impact of pediatric COVID-19 fatality in LMICs compared to HICs.

Time-Series Analysis Comparing the Prevalence of Antibodies against Nine Viral Species Found in Umbilical Cord Blood in Japan.

In this study, we investigated the prevalence of antibodies against 9 viral species found in umbilical cord blood from 561 neonates in 2013. Serum IgG antibodies against the following viruses were measured: herpes simplex virus (HSV), varicella-zoster virus (VZV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), cytomegalovirus (CMV), human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6), measles virus (MV), rubella virus (RV), mumps virus (MuV), and human parvovirus B19 (HPV B19). A survey questionnaire regarding past medical history and maternal immunization status for the vaccine-preventable diseases of varicella, measles, rubella, and mumps was simultaneously administered. The results were compared with previous data collected in 2001-2002 from 378 umbilical cord blood samples. Viral seroprevalence data were: HSV, 54%; VZV, 96%; EBV, 96%; CMV, 67%; HHV-6, 100%; MV, 95%; RV, 94%; MuV, 64%; and HPV B19, 55%. The seroprevalence of CMV, MV, and MuV were significantly lower in 2013 than in 2001-2002 (CMV, 76%; MV, 98%; MuV, 93%). Compared with the 2001-2002 data, the mean IgG antibody values of the 4 vaccine-preventable diseases were significantly lower, and vaccination coverage for those diseases among mothers was significantly higher. Thus, attention should be paid to antibody levels in women of childbearing age in the future.