Scoping review of indicators and methods of measurement used to evaluate the impact of dog population management interventions.

BACKGROUND: Dogs are ubiquitous in human society and attempts to manage their populations are common to most countries. Managing dog populations is achieved through a range of interventions to suit the dog population dynamics and dog ownership characteristics of the location, with a number of potential impacts or goals in mind. Impact assessment provides the opportunity for interventions to identify areas of inefficiencies for improvement and build evidence of positive change. METHODS: This scoping review collates 26 studies that have assessed the impacts of dog population management interventions. RESULTS: It reports the use of 29 indicators of change under 8 categories of impact and describes variation in the methods used to measure these indicators. CONCLUSION: The relatively few published examples of impact assessment in dog population management suggest this field is in its infancy; however this review highlights those notable exceptions. By describing those indicators and methods of measurement that have been reported thus far, and apparent barriers to efficient assessment, this review aims to support and direct future impact assessment.

Response to a rabies epidemic, Bali, Indonesia, 2008-2011.

Emergency vaccinations and culling failed to contain an outbreak of rabies in Bali, Indonesia, during 2008-2009. Subsequent island-wide mass vaccination (reaching 70% coverage, >200,000 dogs) led to substantial declines in rabies incidence and spread. However, the incidence of dog bites remains high, and repeat campaigns are necessary to eliminate rabies in Bali.

Impact Assessment of Free-Roaming Dog Population Management by CNVR in Greater Bangkok.

A high-intensity catch, neuter, vaccinate and return (CNVR) intervention was used over 5 years to manage the free-roaming dog population of Greater Bangkok, using nearly 300,000 CNVR operations across six provinces. An evaluation was conducted using multiple methods to assess the impact of this intervention, including clinical data, an observational street survey, an online attitude survey and reported cases of dog rabies confirmed with laboratory testing. The evaluation found evidence of a reduction in free-roaming dog density over time (24.7% reduction over 5 years), a reduction in dog rabies cases (average reduction of 5.7% rabies cases per month) and an improvement in dog-human relationships (a 39% increase per year in free-roaming dogs with visible signs of ownership or care and a perception of less trouble with free-roaming dogs in districts benefiting from CNVR). The CNVR intervention appears to have been effective at reducing the current free-roaming dog population and minimizing one future source of free-roaming dogs by limiting breeding of dogs accessible on the streets. However, there is evidence that other sources of free-roaming dogs exist, presumed to be predominately abandoned or lost owned dogs that were previously inaccessible to the CNVR intervention because they were ordinarily confined or living outside the project area. Hence, fully effective dog population management will require further interventions targeting owned dogs in addition to this CNVR effort.

Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran.

Understanding dynamics of free-roaming dog (FRD) population is critical for planning and implementation of dog population management programs. FRD population size estimation as well as dynamic modeling of dog population under different female dog neutering interventions were investigated in order to determine the most appropriate animal birth control approach. We performed population size estimate of dogs using sight-resight surveys by photography in a randomly selected 25 blocks of the city and all the suburbs of greater Kerman area. Main demographic features were characterized and the dog density distribution was mapped. A dynamic model was developed to predict free-roaming dog population variations after 5 and 10 years. Different scenarios based on 10, 30, 50, 60 and 70% female dog sterilization were considered to predict the effects of animal birth control measures. Free roaming dog population was estimated at 6781 dogs (65.3% males) in Kerman and suburbs with several major population hotspots. Analysis of the dog locations within the city showed that the largest proportion of the dogs were observed in the vacant lots (46.2%). Modeling predictions indicated that, in the absence of management, the free-roaming dog population could increase from a baseline of 6781 to 13,665 dogs (2.02 fold increase) in 5 years and to 19,376 dogs in 10 years (2.86 fold increase). Using a population dynamics model, we simulated five neutering coverages to explore the impact of female neutering on free-roaming dog population size. The 5-year projections of the model have shown that 50% annual female dog sterilization significantly reduced free-roaming dog population by 0.44 comparing to the baseline population. Findings of the present study improve our knowledge on the nature and extent of dog population dynamics in Iran. Effective population control and selection of the most appropriate neutering interventions require a comprehensive knowledge of the characteristics and dynamics of FRD population.

A mark-resight survey method to estimate the roaming dog population in three cities in Rajasthan, India.

BACKGROUND: Dog population management is required in many locations to minimise the risks dog populations may pose to human health and to alleviate animal welfare problems. In many cities in India, Animal Birth Control (ABC) projects have been adopted to provide population management. Measuring the impact of such projects requires assessment of dog population size among other relevant indicators. METHODS: This paper describes a simple mark-resight survey methodology that can be used with little investment of resources to monitor the number of roaming dogs in areas that are currently subject to ABC, provided the numbers, dates and locations of the dogs released following the intervention are reliably recorded. We illustrate the method by estimating roaming dog numbers in three cities in Rajasthan, India: Jaipur, Jodhpur and Jaisalmer. In each city the dog populations were either currently subject to ABC or had been very recently subject to such an intervention and hence a known number of dogs had been permanently marked with an ear-notch to identify them as having been operated. We conducted street surveys to record the current percentage of dogs in each city that are ear-notched and used an estimate for the annual survival of ear-notched dogs to calculate the current size of each marked population. RESULTS: Dividing the size of the marked population by the fraction of the dogs that are ear-notched we estimated the number of roaming dogs to be 36,580 in Jaipur, 24,853 in Jodhpur and 2,962 in Jaisalmer. CONCLUSIONS: The mark-resight survey methodology described here is a simple way of providing population estimates for cities with current or recent ABC programmes that include visible marking of dogs. Repeating such surveys on a regular basis will further allow for evaluation of ABC programme impact on population size and reproduction in the remaining unsterilised dog population.

Evaluation of Community-Based Dog Welfare and Rabies Project in Sanur, a Sub-district of the Indonesian Island Province of Bali.

The Indonesian island province of Bali experienced its first rabies incursion in 2008. Mass vaccination of the dog population has proven effective and rabies cases in dogs and people have decreased, however the virus is still circulating among the dog population. Vaccination coverage must be maintained until rabies elimination. Increasing efficiency and effectiveness of vaccination campaigns is therefore desired. Community engagement leading to preventative health actions by community members can reduce disease incidence and costs of control. Here we evaluate 2 years of a novel community-based dog welfare and rabies control project (Program Dharma) in the Sanur sub-district. The project engaged the services of people living in the project area with an interest or experience in dogs or community health services. These people spoke with owners within their own community about dog welfare and health, monitored owned and unowned dogs and increased owner and carer efforts to access vaccination and further veterinary services. The evaluation focused on a sample of dogs whose owners had been regularly engaged with project. Vaccination coverage was increased and there were no dog or human rabies cases reported in the project area; the percentage of the dogs that had never been vaccinated was reduced by an average 28.3% (baseline unvaccinated 41-49%, post-project unvaccinated 11-19%). The welfare of dogs improved from an average of 20.7% of dogs with visible welfare problems at baseline to 2.7% after project implementation. Roaming dog density observed on street surveys also decreased in all project areas (24-47% reduction dependent on desa). A participatory evaluation event with a sample of Program Dharma community-based agents highlighted several additional successes, including that the community appeared to welcome and value their services and were beginning to support the cost of project activities. Conversely, challenges included identifying dogs in the database during revisits, sustaining the costs of community member time spent working on Program Dharma activities and the costs of veterinary care, whilst avoiding dependency of owners on free veterinary services. The benefits revealed by the evaluation were judged to be sufficient to extend Program Dharma to new areas, whilst evolving activities to resolve challenges.

Fecundity and longevity of roaming dogs in Jaipur, India.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic parameters, such as age-specific survival and fecundity, age at first pregnancy and litter size, are required for roaming dogs (i.e. dogs that are neither confined nor restricted) to assess the likely effect of proposed methods of population control. Data resulting from individual identification of dogs spayed as part of an Animal Birth Control (ABC) programme in Jaipur, India, are used to derive such parameters for the roaming dog population of that city. RESULTS: The percentage of females becoming pregnant in any given year was estimated by inspection of over 25,000 females caught for spaying from 1995 to 2006. The point estimate is 47.5% with a 95% confidence interval from 44% to 51%. Adult annual survival of spayed females was estimated by recapture of 62 spayed females from 2002 to 2006. The point estimate is 0.70 (95% confidence interval from 0.62 to 0.78), corresponding to an expected total lifespan of 3.8 years for a spayed female at one year old. CONCLUSION: Recording the pregnancy status of dogs collected for spaying and individual marking of dogs released following spaying can provide estimates of some of the demographic parameters essential for predicting the future effectiveness of an ABC programme. Further, we suggest that recording the number and location of spayed and unspayed dogs encountered by the catching teams could be the most effective way to monitor the size and composition of the roaming dog population.

Qualitative Evaluation of the Five-Year 'Red Collar' Campaign to End Inhumane Culling of Dogs as a Method of Rabies Control.

Dog-mediated human rabies can be eliminated through mass dog vaccination. Despite leading authorities in human and animal health uniting to advance effective and humane rabies control, some governments resort to lethal methods, which are unethical, often inhumane and ineffective. To end the inhumane culling of dogs in response to rabies, World Animal Protection launched 'Red Collar'; a five-year campaign (2011-2016) that worked with governments to promote the implementation of mass dog vaccination for rabies control. We present the findings from a qualitative evaluation of 'Red Collar', conducted both regionally and with national focus on Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Zanzibar, Tanzania. Through semi-structured interviews and written contributions from stakeholders (n = 54), we compared perceptions of changes with stated campaign goals to capture recommendations for future work. The campaign successfully generated momentum for implementation of mass dog vaccination by targeted governments. Lessons learned were established: Value of a consistent animal welfare 'voice'; the need to explore the motivations behind culling; the need to capacity build; time required for the 'ripple effect' to inspire humane control in other countries; importance of monitoring and evaluation of indicators; time and effort required for exit strategies and prior preparation for a robust response to culling.

Dog Ecology and Rabies Knowledge of Owners and Non-Owners in Sanur, A Sub-District of the Indonesian Island Province of Bali.

This study gained an understanding of dog demographics, owner behaviour, and knowledge, attitudes and practices relating to rabies in three villages in Sanur, Bali, providing insights for an intervention to improve responsible dog ownership. A combination of a census of all dogs, street surveys of roaming dogs, and a Knowledge, Attitude and Practices (KAP) survey was used to study both dogs and people. A total of 6009 dogs were recorded, of which only 3.3% appeared to be unowned; unowned dogs had poorer welfare and were more likely to be wary of attempted approaches by people. The source of dogs, method of confinement used by owners, and whether dogs were sterilised differed between three breed types; purebred dogs, mixed breed, and Bali dogs (native breed). Three variables were found to have significant effects on the chances of not being vaccinated: age, dog type, and confinement. A mean of 3.81 roaming dogs per km of street surveyed was recorded along 28 sub-village routes. Responses to attitude statements showed that most people had a positive attitude towards dogs and vaccination and did not agree with culling. Knowledge of appropriate bite treatment and symptoms of rabies in dogs was good.

Direct Observation of Dog Density and Composition during Street Counts as a Resource Efficient Method of Measuring Variation in Roaming Dog Populations over Time and between Locations.

Dog population management is conducted in many countries to address the public health risks from roaming dogs and threats to their welfare. To assess its effectiveness, we need to monitor indicators from both the human and dog populations that are quick and easy to collect, precise and meaningful to intervention managers, donors and local citizens. We propose that the most appropriate indicators from the roaming dog population are population density and composition, based on counting dogs along standard routes using a standard survey protocol. Smart phone apps are used to navigate and record dogs along standard routes. Density expressed as dogs seen per km predicts the number of dogs residents will encounter as they commute to work or school and is therefore more meaningful than total population size. Composition in terms of gender, age and reproductive activity is measured alongside welfare, in terms of body and skin condition. The implementation of this method in seven locations reveals significant difference in roaming dog density between locations and reduction in density within one location subject to intervention. This method provides a resource efficient and reliable measure of roaming dog density, composition and welfare for the assessment of intervention impact.

The predation costs of symmetrical cryptic coloration.

In psychological studies of visual perception, symmetry is accepted as a potent cue in visual search for cryptic objects, yet its importance for non-human animals has been assumed rather than tested. Furthermore, while the salience of bilateral symmetry has been established in laboratory-based search tasks using human subjects, its role in more natural settings, closer to those for which such perceptual mechanisms evolved, has not, to our knowledge, been investigated previously. That said, the salience of symmetry in visual search has a plausible adaptive rationale, because biologically important objects, such as prey, predators or conspecifics, usually have a plane of symmetry that is not present in their surroundings. We tested the conspicuousness to avian predators of cryptic artificial, moth-like targets, with or without bilateral symmetry in background-matching coloration, against oak trees in the field. In two independent experiments, symmetrical targets were predated at a higher rate than otherwise identical asymmetrical targets. There was a small, but significant, fitness cost to symmetry in camouflage patterns. Given that birds are the most commonly invoked predators shaping the evolution of defensive coloration in insects, this raises the question of why bilateral asymmetry is not more common in cryptic insects.

Behavioural and physiological responses of dogs entering re-homing kennels.

Behaviour and urinary cortisol/creatinine ratios (C/C) were monitored in twenty-six dogs, on days 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10 following their admission to a rehoming kennel. Half had been relinquished from homes, and half were either strays or returns to the shelter. Drinking and grooming increased with time, while panting and paw-lifting decreased, but only drinking was linked with C/C; dogs observed drinking on the first day had significantly lower C/C than dogs not observed drinking. Mean molar C/C (40 x 10(-6)+/-16 x 10(-6)) tended to decrease with time in the strays and returns, and to increase in dogs relinquished from homes, although C/C on the first day was highly variable and not distinguishable between these two groups. This implies that these populations differed in their long-term, but possibly not their short-term, responses to kennelling. Dogs with rising C/C were more active on average than those with falling C/C, but the opposite trend was detected when making comparisons within-dog. The relationship between C/C and exercise is therefore complex and warrants further investigation before C/C can be considered as a reliable indicator of welfare in this species.

Estimating the global burden of endemic canine rabies.

BACKGROUND: Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25-159,000) human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion) economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%), followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20%) and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%), with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%), and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to monitor the impacts of control efforts.

A one health framework for the evaluation of rabies control programmes: a case study from Colombo City, Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: One Health addresses complex challenges to promote the health of all species and the environment by integrating relevant sciences at systems level. Its application to zoonotic diseases is recommended, but few coherent frameworks exist that combine approaches from multiple disciplines. Rabies requires an interdisciplinary approach for effective and efficient management. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A framework is proposed to assess the value of rabies interventions holistically. The economic assessment compares additional monetary and non-monetary costs and benefits of an intervention taking into account epidemiological, animal welfare, societal impact and cost data. It is complemented by an ethical assessment. The framework is applied to Colombo City, Sri Lanka, where modified dog rabies intervention measures were implemented in 2007. The two options included for analysis were the control measures in place until 2006 ("baseline scenario") and the new comprehensive intervention measures ("intervention") for a four-year duration. Differences in control cost; monetary human health costs after exposure; Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost due to human rabies deaths and the psychological burden following a bite; negative impact on animal welfare; epidemiological indicators; social acceptance of dogs; and ethical considerations were estimated using a mixed method approach including primary and secondary data. Over the four years analysed, the intervention cost US $1.03 million more than the baseline scenario in 2011 prices (adjusted for inflation) and caused a reduction in dog rabies cases; 738 DALYs averted; an increase in acceptability among non-dog owners; a perception of positive changes in society including a decrease in the number of roaming dogs; and a net reduction in the impact on animal welfare from intermediate-high to low-intermediate. CONCLUSIONS: The findings illustrate the multiple outcomes relevant to stakeholders and allow greater understanding of the value of the implemented rabies control measures, thereby providing a solid foundation for informed decision-making and sustainable control.

Designing programs for eliminating canine rabies from islands: Bali, Indonesia as a case study.

BACKGROUND: Canine rabies is one of the most important and feared zoonotic diseases in the world. In some regions rabies elimination is being successfully coordinated, whereas in others rabies is endemic and continues to spread to uninfected areas. As epidemics emerge, both accepted and contentious control methods are used, as questions remain over the most effective strategy to eliminate rabies. The Indonesian island of Bali was rabies-free until 2008 when an epidemic in domestic dogs began, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people. Here we analyze data from the epidemic and compare the effectiveness of control methods at eliminating rabies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from Bali, we estimated the basic reproductive number, R(0), of rabies in dogs, to be ~1 · 2, almost identical to that obtained in ten-fold less dense dog populations and suggesting rabies will not be effectively controlled by reducing dog density. We then developed a model to compare options for mass dog vaccination. Comprehensive high coverage was the single most important factor for achieving elimination, with omission of even small areas (<0.5% of the dog population) jeopardizing success. Parameterizing the model with data from the 2010 and 2011 vaccination campaigns, we show that a comprehensive high coverage campaign in 2012 would likely result in elimination, saving ~550 human lives and ~$15 million in prophylaxis costs over the next ten years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The elimination of rabies from Bali will not be achieved through achievable reductions in dog density. To ensure elimination, concerted high coverage, repeated, mass dog vaccination campaigns are necessary and the cooperation of all regions of the island is critical. Momentum is building towards development of a strategy for the global elimination of canine rabies, and this study offers valuable new insights about the dynamics and control of this disease, with immediate practical relevance.

Renewed global partnerships and redesigned roadmaps for rabies prevention and control.

Canine rabies, responsible for most human rabies deaths, is a serious global public health concern. This zoonosis is entirely preventable, but by focusing solely upon rabies prevention in humans, this "incurable wound" persists at high costs. Although preventing human deaths through canine rabies elimination is feasible, dog rabies control is often neglected, because dogs are not considered typical economic commodities by the animal health sector. Here, we demonstrate that the responsibility of managing rabies falls upon multiple sectors, that a truly integrated approach is the key to rabies elimination, and that considerable progress has been made to this effect. Achievements include the construction of global rabies networks and organizational partnerships; development of road maps, operational toolkits, and a blueprint for rabies prevention and control; and opportunities for scaling up and replication of successful programs. Progress must continue towards overcoming the remaining challenges preventing the ultimate goal of rabies elimination.