Statistical methods for comparing test positivity rates between countries: Which method should be used and why?

The test positivity (TP) rate has emerged as an important metric for gauging the illness burden due to COVID-19. Given the importance of COVID-19 TP rates for understanding COVID-related morbidity, researchers and clinicians have become increasingly interested in comparing TP rates across countries. The statistical methods for performing such comparisons fall into two general categories: frequentist tests and Bayesian methods. Using data from Our World in Data (ourworldindata.org), we performed comparisons for two prototypical yet disparate pairs of countries: Bolivia versus the United States (large vs. small-to-moderate TP rates), and South Korea vs. Uruguay (two very small TP rates of similar magnitude). Three different statistical procedures were used: two frequentist tests (an asymptotic z-test and the 'N-1' chi-square test), and a Bayesian method for comparing two proportions (TP rates are proportions). Results indicated that for the case of large vs. small-to-moderate TP rates (Bolivia versus the United States), the frequentist and Bayesian approaches both indicated that the two rates were substantially different. When the TP rates were very small and of similar magnitude (values of 0.009 and 0.007 for South Korea and Uruguay, respectively), the frequentist tests indicated a highly significant contrast, despite the apparent trivial amount by which the two rates differ. The Bayesian method, in comparison, suggested that the TP rates were practically equivalent-a finding that seems more consistent with the observed data. When TP rates are highly similar in magnitude, frequentist tests can lead to erroneous interpretations. A Bayesian approach, on the other hand, can help ensure more accurate inferences and thereby avoid potential decision errors that could lead to costly public health and policy-related consequences.

Test positivity - Evaluation of a new metric to assess epidemic dispersal mediated by non-symptomatic cases.

Epidemic control may be hampered when the percentage of asymptomatic cases is high. Seeking remedies for this problem, test positivity was explored between the first 60 to 90 epidemic days in six countries that reported their first COVID-19 case between February and March 2020: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, and Uruguay. Test positivity (TP) is the percentage of test-positive individuals reported on a given day out of all individuals tested the same day. To generate both country-specific and multi-country information, this study was implemented in two stages. First, the epidemiologic data of the country infected last (Uruguay) were analyzed. If at least one TP-related analysis yielded a statistically significant relationship, later assessments would investigate the six countries. The Uruguayan data indicated (i) a positive correlation between daily TP and daily new cases (r = 0.75); (ii) a negative correlation between TP and the number of tests conducted per million inhabitants (TPMI, r = -0.66); and (iii) three temporal stages, which differed from one another in both TP and TPMI medians (p < 0.01) and, together, revealed a negative relationship between TPMI and TP. No significant relationship was found between TP and the number of active or recovered patients. The six countries showed a positive correlation between TP and the number of deaths/million inhabitants (DMI, r = 0.65, p < 0.01). With one exception -a country where isolation was not pursued-, all countries showed a negative correlation between TP and TPMI (r = 0.74). The temporal analysis of country-specific policies revealed four patterns, characterized by: (1) low TPMI and high DMI, (2) high TPMI and low DMI; (3) an intermediate pattern, and (4) high TPMI and high DMI. Findings support the hypothesis that test positivity may guide epidemiologic policy-making, provided that policy-related factors are considered and high-resolution geographical data are utilized.

Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

Reduced Parasite Burden in Children with Falciparum Malaria and Bacteremia Coinfections: Role of Mediators of Inflammation.

Bacteremia and malaria coinfection is a common and life-threatening condition in children residing in sub-Saharan Africa. We previously showed that coinfection with Gram negative (G[-]) enteric Bacilli and Plasmodium falciparum (Pf[+]) was associated with reduced high-density parasitemia (HDP, >10,000 parasites/µL), enhanced respiratory distress, and severe anemia. Since inflammatory mediators are largely unexplored in such coinfections, circulating cytokines were determined in four groups of children (n = 206, aged <3 yrs): healthy; Pf[+] alone; G[-] coinfected; and G[+] coinfected. Staphylococcus aureus and non-Typhi Salmonella were the most frequently isolated G[+] and G[-] organisms, respectively. Coinfected children, particularly those with G[-] pathogens, had lower parasite burden (peripheral and geometric mean parasitemia and HDP). In addition, both coinfected groups had increased IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-12, IL-15, IL-17, IFN-γ, and IFN-α and decreased TNF-α relative to malaria alone. Children with G[-] coinfection had higher IL-1ß and IL-1Ra and lower IL-10 than the Pf[+] group and higher IFN-γ than the G[+] group. To determine how the immune response to malaria regulates parasitemia, cytokine production was investigated with a multiple mediation model. Cytokines with the greatest mediational impact on parasitemia were IL-4, IL-10, IL-12, and IFN-γ. Results here suggest that enhanced immune activation, especially in G[-] coinfected children, acts to reduce malaria parasite burden.

Perceived risk of co-occurrent substance abuse.

A strong negative correlation between perceptions of risk for co-occurrent substance abuse and the variability associated with those risk perceptions was found in two independent samples.

Meta-analysis of the association between gratitude and loneliness.

Gratitude is a positive social emotion that involves recognizing that others have brought benefits into one's life. Loneliness, on the other hand, is an unpleasant emotion resulting from a perceived lack of social connectedness. Although previous studies have reported an inverse association between gratitude and loneliness, these studies have not been systematically examined in a single review. To address this gap in the literature, we conducted a random-effects meta-analysis to examine the association between gratitude and loneliness. Analysis of 26 studies revealed a moderate sized effect (mean Fisher's z transformed correlation, zr = -.406, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -.463, -.349; mean back-transformed correlation, r = -.385, 95% CI = -.433, -.335). To complement these effect sizes, we calculated a probability-based common language effect size for correlations. Random-effects homogeneity testing suggested the presence of effect size heterogeneity. Analyses of both continuous and categorical moderators were non-significant, indicating that these variables did not influence effect size magnitude. Furthermore, publication bias tests suggested that our results were not influenced by unpublished studies. Finally, we proposed several statistical and clinical recommendations for future research. Regarding the latter, we offered suggestions for modifying gratitude enhancement programs with the aim of reducing loneliness.

Suppressed circulating bicyclo-PGE2 levels and leukocyte COX-2 transcripts in children co-infected with P. falciparum malaria and HIV-1 or bacteremia.

In holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission regions, malarial anemia is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality. Identifying biomarkers of malaria disease severity is important for identifying at-risk groups and for improved understanding of the molecular pathways that influence clinical outcomes. We have previously shown that decreased cyclooxygenase (COX)-2-derived prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) levels are associated with enhanced clinical severity in cerebral malaria, malarial anemia, and malaria during pregnancy. Since children with malaria often have increased incidence of additional infections, such as bacteremia and HIV-1, we extend our previous findings by investigating COX-2 and PGE2 in children with falciparum malaria and co-infection with either bacteremia or HIV-1. Plasma bicyclo-PGE2/creatinine levels and peripheral blood COX-2 transcripts were significantly reduced in co-infected children relative to those with malaria mono-infection. Furthermore, suppression of circulating bicyclo-PGE2 was significantly associated with reduced hemoglobin levels in both mono- and co-infected children with malaria, suggesting that bicyclo-PGE2 may represent both a marker and mediator of malaria pathogenesis.

Reduced interferon (IFN)-α conditioned by IFNA2 (-173) and IFNA8 (-884) haplotypes is associated with enhanced susceptibility to severe malarial anemia and longitudinal all-cause mortality.

Severe malarial anemia (SMA) is a leading cause of pediatric morbidity and mortality in holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission areas. Although dysregulation in cytokine production is an important etiology of SMA, the role of IFN-α in SMA has not been reported. As such, we investigated the relationship between IFN-α promoter polymorphisms [i.e., IFNA2 (A-173T) and IFNA8 (T-884A)], SMA, and functional changes in IFN-α production in children (n = 663; <36 months) residing in a holoendemic P. falciparum transmission region of Kenya. Children with SMA had lower circulating IFN-α than malaria-infected children without severe anemia (P = 0.025). Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that heterozygosity at -884 (TA) was associated with an increased risk of SMA [OR 2.80 (95 % CI 1.22-6.43); P = 0.015] and reduced IFN-α relative to wild type (TT; P = 0.038). Additional analyses demonstrated that carriage of the -173T/-884A (TA) haplotype was associated with increased susceptibility to SMA [OR 3.98 (95 % CI 1.17-13.52); P = 0.026] and lower IFN-α (P = 0.031). Follow-up of these children for 36 months revealed that carriers of TA haplotype had greater all-cause mortality than non-carriers (P < 0.001). Generation of reporter constructs showed that the IFNA8 wild-type -884TT exhibited higher levels of luciferase expression than the variant alleles (P < 0.001). Analyses of malaria-associated inflammatory mediators demonstrated that carriers of TA haplotype had altered production of IL-1ß, MIG, and IL-13 compared to non-carriers (P < 0.050). Thus, variation at IFNA2 -173 and IFNA8 -884 conditions reduced IFN-α production, and increased susceptibility to SMA and mortality.

Functional haplotypes of Fc gamma (Fcγ) receptor (FcγRIIA and FcγRIIIB) predict risk to repeated episodes of severe malarial anemia and mortality in Kenyan children.

Development of protective immunity against Plasmodium falciparum is partially mediated through binding of malaria-specific IgG to Fc gamma (γ) receptors. Variations in human FcγRIIA-H/R-131 and FcγRIIIB-NA1/NA2 affect differential binding of IgG sub-classes. Since variability in FcγR may play an important role in severe malarial anemia (SMA) pathogenesis by mediating phagocytosis of red blood cells and triggering cytokine production, the relationship between FcγRIIA-H/R131 and FcγRIIIB-NA1/NA2 haplotypes and susceptibility to SMA (Hb < 6.0 g/dL) was investigated in Kenyan children (n = 528) with acute malaria residing in a holoendemic P. falciparum transmission region. In addition, the association between carriage of the haplotypes and repeated episodes of SMA and all-cause mortality were investigated over a 3-year follow-up period. Since variability in FcγR can alter interferon (IFN)-γ production, a mediator of innate and adaptive immune responses, functional associations between the haplotypes and IFN-γ were also explored. During acute malaria, children with SMA had elevated peripheral IFN-γ levels (P = 0.006). Although multivariate logistic regression analyses (controlling for covariates) revealed no associations between the FcγR haplotypes and susceptibility to SMA during acute infection, the FcγRIIA-131H/FcγRIIIB-NA1 haplotype was associated with decreased peripheral IFN-γ (P = 0.046). Longitudinal analyses showed that carriage of the FcγRIIA-131H/FcγRIIIB-NA1 haplotype was associated with reduced risk of SMA (RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.46-0.90; P = 0.012) and all-cause mortality (P = 0.002). In contrast, carriers of the FcγRIIA-131H/FcγRIIIB-NA2 haplotype had increased susceptibility to SMA (RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.06-2.04; P = 0.020). Results here demonstrate that variation in the FcγR gene alters susceptibility to repeated episodes of SMA and mortality, as well as functional changes in IFN-γ production.

Relationship between inflammatory mediator patterns and anemia in HIV-1 positive and exposed children with Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

Anemia is the primary hematological manifestation of both Plasmodium falciparum malaria and HIV-1 in pediatric populations in sub-Saharan Africa. We have previously shown that HIV-1 positive and exposed children have greater risk of developing severe anemia (hemoglobin, Hb <6.0 g dL⁻¹) during acute malaria. However, enhanced severity of anemia was unrelated to either erythropoietic suppression or parasite-driven red blood cell hemolysis. To further explore mechanisms of anemia, circulating inflammatory mediators (IMs) were determined using a 25-plex bead array in P. falciparum-infected (Pf[+]) children (3-36 month, n = 194) stratified into three groups: HIV-1 negative (HIV-1[-]/Pf[+]); HIV-1 exposed (HIV-1[exp]/Pf[+]); and HIV-1 infected (HIV-1[+]/Pf[+]). IL-12, MIG/CXCL9, eotaxin/CCL11, and GM-CSF differed significantly and progressively increased across the groups (HIV-1[-]→HIV-1[exp]→HIV-1[+]). To further explore the relationship between the inflammatory milieu (i.e., cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors) and HIV-1 status, the large panel of IMs was reduced into discrete groups by principal component factor analysis. Of the six principal components that emerged, three components were significantly higher in the HIV-1 [+]/pf[+] and HIV[exp]/Pf[+] groups, demonstrating that inflammatory profiles differ according to HIV-1 status. Additional analyses exploring the relationship between the components and anemia revealed significant positive correlations between Hb and Component 3 (IL-1Ra, IL-7, IL-17, IFN-α, IFN-γ, MIG/CXCL9) in the HIV-1[-]/Pf[+] group, and Component 4 (IL-4, IL-5, IL-12, Eotaxin/CCL11) in HIV-1[+]/Pf[+] children. Further analyses of the HIV-1[+]/Pf[+] group revealed that IL-12 had the strongest association with anemia. Results presented here demonstrate that there are unique relationships between the inflammatory environment and anemia in HIV-1 positive and exposed children with malaria.

Reduced systemic bicyclo-prostaglandin-E2 and cyclooxygenase-2 gene expression are associated with inefficient erythropoiesis and enhanced uptake of monocytic hemozoin in children with severe malarial anemia.

In holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission areas, severe malaria primarily occurs in children aged <48 months and manifests as severe malarial anemia [SMA; hemoglobin (Hb) < 6.0 g/dL]. Induction of high levels of prostaglandin-E(2) (PGE(2)) through inducible cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is an important host-defense mechanism against invading pathogens. We have previously shown that COX-2-derived PGE(2) levels are reduced in children residing in hyperendemic transmission regions with cerebral malaria and in those with mixed sequelae of anemia and hyperparasitemia. Our in vitro studies further demonstrated that reduced PGE(2) was due to downregulation of COX-2 gene products following phagocytosis of malarial pigment (hemozoin, PfHz). However, as COX-2-PGE(2) pathways and the impact of naturally acquired PfHz on erythropoietic responses have not been determined in children with SMA, plasma and urinary bicyclo-PGE(2)/creatinine and leukocytic COX-2 transcripts were determined in parasitized children (<36 months) stratified into SMA (n = 36) and non-SMA (Hb ≥ 6.0 g/dL; n = 38). Children with SMA had significantly reduced plasma (P = 0.001) and urinary (P < 0.001) bicyclo-PGE(2)/creatinine and COX-2 transcripts (P = 0.007). There was a significant positive association between Hb and both plasma (r = 0.363, P = 0.002) and urinary (r = 0.500, P = 0.001)] bicyclo-PGE(2)/creatinine. Furthermore, decreased systemic bicyclo-PGE(2)/creatinine was associated with inefficient erythropoiesis (i.e., reticulocyte production index; RPI < 2.0, P = 0.026). Additional analyses demonstrated that plasma (P = 0.031) and urinary (P = 0.070) bicyclo-PGE(2)/creatinine and COX-2 transcripts (P = 0.026) progressively declined with increasing concentrations of naturally acquired PfHz by monocytes. Results presented here support a model in which reduced COX-2-derived PGE(2), driven in part by naturally acquired PfHz by monocytes, promotes decreased erythropoietic responses in children with SMA.

Gratitude and social support mediate the association between mindfulness and mood: A cross-cultural replication study.

Swickert and colleagues surveyed young adults in the United States and found that gratitude and social support mediated the association between mindfulness and mood (both positive and negative affect). This study attempted to replicate Swickert et al.'s mediational findings using a young adult Hungarian sample. Results indicated that with one exception, the mediational findings were replicated. The exception was that for the Hungarians, gratitude did not mediate the association between mindfulness and negative affect. Overall, these findings indicate that the mediational effects of gratitude and social support are quite similar for individuals living in the United States and Hungary.

Multi-Cellular Immunological Interactions Associated With COVID-19 Infections.

To rapidly prognosticate and generate hypotheses on pathogenesis, leukocyte multi-cellularity was evaluated in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients treated in India or the United States (152 individuals, 384 temporal observations). Within hospital (<90-day) death or discharge were retrospectively predicted based on the admission complete blood cell counts (CBC). Two methods were applied: (i) a "reductionist" one, which analyzes each cell type separately, and (ii) a "non-reductionist" method, which estimates multi-cellularity. The second approach uses a proprietary software package that detects distinct data patterns generated by complex and hypothetical indicators and reveals each data pattern's immunological content and associated outcome(s). In the Indian population, the analysis of isolated cell types did not separate survivors from non-survivors. In contrast, multi-cellular data patterns differentiated six groups of patients, including, in two groups, 95.5% of all survivors. Some data structures revealed one data point-wide line of observations, which informed at a personalized level and identified 97.8% of all non-survivors. Discovery was also fostered: some non-survivors were characterized by low monocyte/lymphocyte ratio levels. When both populations were analyzed with the non-reductionist method, they displayed results that suggested survivors and non-survivors differed immunologically as early as hospitalization day 1.

Identification of inflammatory biomarkers for pediatric malarial anemia severity using novel statistical methods.

Areas where Plasmodium falciparum transmission is holoendemic are characterized by high rates of pediatric severe malarial anemia (SMA) and associated mortality. Although the etiology of SMA is complex and multifactorial, perturbations in inflammatory mediator production play an important role in the pathogenic process. As such, the current study focused on identification of inflammatory biomarkers in children with malarial anemia. Febrile children (3 to 30 months of age) presenting at Siaya District Hospital in western Kenya underwent a complete clinical and hematological evaluation. Children with falciparum malaria and no additional identifiable anemia-promoting coinfections were stratified into three groups: uncomplicated malaria (hemoglobin [Hb] levels of ≥11.0 g/dl; n = 31), non-SMA (Hb levels of 6.0 to 10.9 g/dl; n = 37), and SMA (Hb levels of <6.0 g/dl; n = 80). A Luminex hu25-plex array was used to determine potential biomarkers (i.e., interleukin 1ß [IL-1ß], IL-1 receptor antagonist [IL-1Ra], IL-2, IL-2R, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-7, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12p70, IL-13, IL-15, IL-17, tumor necrosis factor alpha [TNF-α], alpha interferon [IFN-α], IFN-γ, granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor [GM-CSF], macrophage inflammatory protein 1 alpha [MIP-1α], MIP-1ß, IFN-inducible protein of 10 kDa [IP-10], monokine induced by IFN-γ [MIG], eotaxin, RANTES, and monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 [MCP-1]) in samples obtained prior to any treatment interventions. To determine the strongest biomarkers of anemia, a parsimonious set of predictor variables for Hb was generated by least-angle regression (LAR) analysis, controlling for the confounding effects of age, gender, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, and sickle cell trait, followed by multiple linear regression analyses. IL-12p70 and IFN-γ emerged as positive predictors of Hb, while IL-2R, IL-13, and eotaxin were negatively associated with Hb. The results presented here demonstrate that the IL-12p70/IFN-γ pathway represents a set of biomarkers that predicts elevated Hb levels in children with falciparum malaria, while activation of the IL-13/eotaxin pathway favors more profound anemia.

Functional promoter haplotypes of interleukin-18 condition susceptibility to severe malarial anemia and childhood mortality.

Severe malarial anemia (SMA) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children residing in regions where Plasmodium falciparum transmission is holoendemic. Although largely unexplored in children with SMA, interleukin-18 (IL-18) is important for regulating innate and acquired immunity in inflammatory and infectious diseases. As such, we selected two functional single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the IL-18 promoter (-137G→C [rs187238] and -607C→A [rs1946518]) whose haplotypes encompass significant genetic variation due to the presence of strong linkage disequilibrium among these variants. The relationship between the genotypes/haplotypes, SMA (hemoglobin [Hb], <5.0 g/dl], and longitudinal clinical outcomes were then investigated in Kenyan children (n = 719). Multivariate logistic regression analyses controlling for age, gender, sickle cell trait, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, HIV-1, and bacteremia revealed that carriage of the -607AA genotype was associated with protection against SMA (odds ratio [OR] = 0.440 [95% confidence interval {CI} = 0.21 to 0.90], P = 0.031) in children with acute infection. In contrast, carriers of the -137G/-607C (GC) haplotype had increased susceptibility to SMA (OR = 2.050 [95% CI = 1.04 to 4.05], P = 0.039). Measurement of IL-18 gene expression in peripheral blood leukocytes demonstrated that elevated IL-18 transcripts were associated with reduced hemoglobin concentrations (ρ = -0.293, P = 0.010) and that carriers of the "susceptible" GC haplotype had elevated IL-18 transcripts (P = 0.026). Longitudinal investigation of clinical outcomes over a 3-year follow-up period revealed that carriers of the rare CC haplotype (∼1% frequency) had 5.76 times higher mortality than noncarriers (P = 0.001). Results presented here demonstrate that IL-18 promoter haplotypes that condition elevated IL-18 gene products during acute infection are associated with increased risk of SMA. Furthermore, carriage of the rare CC haplotype significantly increases the risk of childhood mortality.

Polymorphic variability in the 3' untranslated region (UTR) of IL12B is associated with susceptibility to severe anaemia in Kenyan children with acute Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among African children. Innate immunity provides the first line of defence against P. falciparum infections, particularly in young children that lack naturally-acquired malarial immunity, such as the population examined here. Consistent with the fact that elevated interleukin (IL)-12 is an important component of the innate immune response that provides protective immunity against malaria, we have previously shown that suppression of IL-12 in African children is associated with the development of severe malarial anaemia (SMA). Since the role of IL12B variants in conditioning susceptibility to SMA remains largely unexplored, the association between a single nucleotide polymorphism (1188A→C, rs3212227), SMA (Hb<6.0 g/dL), circulating IL-12p40/p70 levels, and longitudinal clinical outcomes in Kenyan children (n = 756) residing in a holoendemic falciparum malaria transmission area were investigated. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis in children with acute malaria (n = 544) demonstrated that carriers of the C allele had increased susceptibility to SMA (CC: OR, 1.674; 95% CI, 1.006-2.673; P = 0.047, and AC: OR, 1.410; 95% CI, 0.953-2.087; P = 0.086) relative to wild type (AA). Although children with SMA had lower IL-12p40/p70 levels than the non-SMA group (P = 0.037), levels did not differ significantly according to genotype. Longitudinal analyses in the entire cohort (n = 756) failed to show any significant relationships between rs3212227 genotypes and either susceptibility to SMA or all-cause mortality throughout the three year follow-up. CONCLUSION: The rs3212227 is a marker of susceptibility to SMA in children with acute disease, but does not appear to mediate functional changes in IL-12 production or longitudinal outcomes during the acquisition of naturally-acquired malarial immunity.

A novel functional variant in the stem cell growth factor promoter protects against severe malarial anemia.

Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a leading global cause of infectious disease burden. In areas in which P. falciparum transmission is holoendemic, such as western Kenya, severe malarial anemia (SMA) results in high rates of pediatric morbidity and mortality. Although the pathophysiological basis of SMA is multifactorial, we recently discovered that suppression of unexplored hematopoietic growth factors that promote erythroid and myeloid colony development, such as stem cell growth factor (SCGF) (C-type lectin domain family member 11A [CLEC11A]), was associated with enhanced development of SMA and reduced erythropoietic responses. To extend these investigations, the relationships between a novel SCGF promoter variant (-539C/T, rs7246355), SMA (hemoglobin [Hb] < 6.0 g/dl), and reduced erythropoietic responses (reticulocyte production index [RPI], <2.0) were investigated with Kenyan children (n = 486) with falciparum malaria from western Kenya. Circulating SCGF was positively correlated with hemoglobin levels (r = 0.251; P = 0.022) and the reticulocyte production index (RPI) (r = 0.268; P = 0.025). Children with SMA also had lower SCGF levels than those in the non-SMA group (P = 0.005). Multivariate logistic regression analyses controlling for covariates demonstrated that individuals with the homologous T allele were protected against SMA (odds ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.34 to 0.94; P = 0.027) relative to CC (wild-type) carriers. Carriers of the TT genotype also had higher SCGF levels in circulation (P = 0.018) and in peripheral blood mononuclear cell culture supernatants (P = 0.041), as well as an elevated RPI (P = 0.005) relative to individuals with the CC genotype. The results presented here demonstrate that homozygous T at -539 in the SCGF promoter is associated with elevated SCGF production, enhanced erythropoiesis, and protection against the development of SMA in children with falciparum malaria.

Clinical predictors of severe malarial anaemia in a holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission area.

Severe malarial anaemia (SMA) is a common complication of Plasmodium falciparum infections, resulting in mortality rates that may exceed 30% in paediatric populations residing in holoendemic transmission areas. One strategy for reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with SMA is to identify clinical predictors that can be readily recognized by caregivers for prompt therapeutic interventions. To determine clinical predictors of SMA, Kenyan children (3-36 months, n = 671) presenting with acute illness at a rural hospital in Siaya District were recruited. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and haematological parameters were measured upon enrolment. As human immunodeficiency virus-1 and bacteraemia promote reduced haemoglobin (Hb) concentrations, children with these infections were excluded from the analyses. Children with P. falciparum mono-infections (n = 355) were stratified into three groups: uncomplicated malaria (Hb >or= 110 g/l); non-SMA (60

Hematological predictors of increased severe anemia in Kenyan children coinfected with Plasmodium falciparum and HIV-1.

Malaria and HIV-1 are coendemic in many developing countries, with anemia being the most common pediatric hematological manifestation of each disease. Anemia is also one of the primary causes of mortality in children monoinfected with either malaria or HIV-1. Although our previous results showed HIV-1(+) children with acute Plasmodium falciparum malaria [Pf(+)] have more profound anemia, potential causes of severe anemia in coinfected children remain unknown. As such, children with P. falciparum malaria (aged 3-36 months, n = 542) from a holoendemic malaria transmission area of western Kenya were stratified into three groups: HIV-1 negative [HIV-1(-)/Pf(+)]; HIV-1 exposed [HIV-1(exp)/Pf(+)]; and HIV-1 infected [HIV-1(+)/Pf(+)]. Comprehensive clinical, parasitological, and hematological measures were determined upon enrollment. Univariate, correlational, and hierarchical regression analyses were used to determine differences among the groups and to define predictors of worsening anemia. HIV-1(+)/Pf(+) children had significantly more malarial pigment-containing neutrophils (PCN), monocytosis, increased severe anemia (Hb < 6.0 g/dL), and nearly 10-fold greater mortality within 3 months of enrollment. Common causes of anemia in malaria-infected children, such as increased parasitemia or reduced erythropoiesis, did not account for worsening anemia in the HIV-1(+)/Pf(+) group nor did carriage of sickle cell trait or G6PD deficiency. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis revealed that more profound anemia was associated with elevated PCM, younger age, and increasing HIV-1 status ([HIV-1(-) --> HIV-1(exp) --> HIV-1(+)]. Thus, malaria/HIV-1 coinfection is characterized by more profound anemia and increased mortality, with acquisition of monocytic pigment having the most detrimental impact on Hb levels.