A simplified material flow analysis employing local expert judgment and its impact on uncertainty.

Material flow analysis (MFA) is an effective tool for waste management, but low- and middle-income countries lack essential data for MFA. This study proposed a simplified MFA (sMFA) utilizing local expert judgment (LEJ) and examining the impact of simplification on its uncertainty. A stochastic sMFA model was developed for nitrogen and phosphorus in urban Mandalay, Myanmar. This model was compared with the intensive MFA (iMFA) model employing intensive surveys for primary data collection. For the total loadings to the environment, the medians of the sMFA were higher by 3% and 11%, respectively, for nitrogen and phosphorus than those of the iMFA. The widths of the 80% confidence intervals of these loadings in the sMFA, normalized by those in the iMFA, were - 0.05 and - 0.11, respectively. The three largest flows to the environment were the same for the two models: on-site sanitation effluent/leakage, greywater, and industrial wastewater. Large median gaps between the models were observed for industrial wastewater, fecal sludge, and human excreta, associated with informal waste management, whereby LEJ did not work well. Overall, the sMFA demonstrated a good estimation of nitrogen and phosphorus flows with limited increase of uncertainty, still requiring focused attention on informal waste streams. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10163-023-01660-5.

Informal Emptying Business in Mandalay: Its Reasons and Financial Impacts.

Globally, 2.8 billion people use on-site sanitation facilities, which need regular emptying of accumulated fecal sludge. Illegal dumping from informal emptying businesses, one of the major challenges in environmental management, is widely observed. Considering Mandalay, Myanmar, this study aimed to determine why informal emptying businesses are selected and estimate the lost revenue for a formal emptying service provider (FP) due to the informal businesses. We interviewed 400 households on their recognition and experiences regarding emptying services and willingness-to-pay for improved service. Revenue loss was estimated by comparing the present and theoretical maximum revenues. Results showed that 91.0% of households recognized FP only. Among 134 emptying-experienced households, 32.8%, 59.7%, and 4.5% chose FP with legal contact, FP with illegal contact, and informal service providers, respectively. The service fees from FP with illegal contact did not become revenue for FP; this was a major informal emptying business in the city. Differently from previous studies, the major illegal dumping was done by FP in this area. A great financial loss was estimated that FP lost 76.5% of the theoretical maximum revenue due to informal business. Logistic regression analysis indicated people's intention to shorten the waiting time through illegal contact, even by paying a higher fee. As emptying services are typically required immediately after fecal sludge is over-accumulated, shorter waiting times and faster contact methods were the reasons why the informal business was selected. Less bureaucratic and more customer friendly system could reduce revenue loss, charge more, and increase profits.