Influence of the spatial heterogeneity in tick abundance in the modeling of the seasonal activity of Ixodes ricinus nymphs in Western Europe.

The seasonal weather-driven activity of the tick Ixodes ricinus is frequently explored using multisite surveys. This study aimed to investigate the statistical modeling of seasonal trends in the activity of I. ricinus nymphs when both the influence of abiotic factors and spatial heterogeneity were taken into account. Time series data of abiotic covariates (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and photoperiod) and nymphal tick counts were recorded on several sites in The Netherlands, Belgium and in France in 2008 and 2009. The sites were divided into two subsets which were used for model construction or model validation. A generalized linear mixed model was set up, with aggregated abiotic covariates as fixed effects, and the collection site as a random effect to account for the site-varying density in nymphs. A linear regression model was developed to estimate the site effect against the observed local abundance on each site. The activity patterns simulated from the weather and photoperiod covariates realistically reproduced the observed seasonal trends in nymphal tick activity. The fit between observed and simulated nymphal count time series was greatly improved when the site-specific local abundance in nymphs was included. Our modeling approach allows indicators of local tick abundance and the temporal modeling of I. ricinus activity to be combined. The model presented here can also be used to study scenarios on the temporal patterns of I. ricinus activity in the present and in the context of climate change.

Spread of Coxiella burnetii between dairy cattle herds in an enzootic region: modelling contributions of airborne transmission and trade.

Q fever, a worldwide zoonotic disease caused by Coxiella burnetii, is a looming concern for livestock and public health. Epidemiological features of inter-herd transmission of C. burnetii in cattle herds by wind and trade of cows are poorly understood. We present a novel dynamic spatial model describing the inter-herd regional spread of C. burnetii in dairy cattle herds, quantifying the ability of airborne transmission and animal trade in C. burnetii propagation in an enzootic region. Among all the new herd infections, 92% were attributed to airborne transmission and the rest to cattle trade. Infections acquired following airborne transmission were shown to cause relatively small and ephemeral intra-herd outbreaks. On the contrary, disease-free herds purchasing an infectious cow experienced significantly higher intra-herd prevalence. The results also indicated that, for short duration, both transmission routes were independent from each other without any synergistic effect. The model outputs applied to the Finistère department in western France showed satisfactory sensitivity (0.71) and specificity (0.80) in predicting herd infection statuses at the end of one year in a neighbourhood of 3 km around expected incident herds, when compared with data. The model developed here thus provides important insights into the spread of C. burnetii between dairy cattle herds and paves the way for implementation and assessment of control strategies.

An Update of Evidence for Pathogen Transmission by Ticks of the Genus Hyalomma.

Current and likely future changes in the geographic distribution of ticks belonging to the genus Hyalomma are of concern, as these ticks are believed to be vectors of many pathogens responsible for human and animal diseases. However, we have observed that for many pathogens there are no vector competence experiments, and that the level of evidence provided by the scientific literature is often not sufficient to validate the transmission of a specific pathogen by a specific Hyalomma species. We therefore carried out a bibliographical study to collate the validation evidence for the transmission of parasitic, viral, or bacterial pathogens by Hyalomma spp. ticks. Our results show that there are very few validated cases of pathogen transmission by Hyalomma tick species.

First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Possible Drivers of Observed Increasing Human Cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a viral disease endemic in Eurasia. The virus is mainly transmitted to humans via ticks and occasionally via the consumption of unpasteurized milk products. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported an increase in TBE incidence over the past years in Europe as well as the emergence of the disease in new areas. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigated the drivers of TBE emergence and increase in incidence in humans through an expert knowledge elicitation. We listed 59 possible drivers grouped in eight domains and elicited forty European experts to: (i) allocate a score per driver, (ii) weight this score within each domain, and (iii) weight the different domains and attribute an uncertainty level per domain. An overall weighted score per driver was calculated, and drivers with comparable scores were grouped into three terminal nodes using a regression tree analysis. The drivers with the highest scores were: (i) changes in human behavior/activities; (ii) changes in eating habits or consumer demand; (iii) changes in the landscape; (iv) influence of humidity on the survival and transmission of the pathogen; (v) difficulty to control reservoir(s) and/or vector(s); (vi) influence of temperature on virus survival and transmission; (vii) number of wildlife compartments/groups acting as reservoirs or amplifying hosts; (viii) increase of autochthonous wild mammals; and (ix) number of tick species vectors and their distribution. Our results support researchers in prioritizing studies targeting the most relevant drivers of emergence and increasing TBE incidence.

The control of Hyalomma ticks, vectors of the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus: Where are we now and where are we going?

At a time of major global, societal, and environmental changes, the shifting distribution of pathogen vectors represents a real danger in certain regions of the world as generating opportunities for emergency. For example, the recent arrival of the Hyalomma marginatum ticks in southern France and the concurrent appearance of cases of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF)-a disease vectored by this tick species-in neighboring Spain raises many concerns about the associated risks for the European continent. This context has created an urgent need for effective methods for control, surveillance, and risk assessment for ticks and tick-borne diseases with a particular concern regarding Hyalomma sp. Here, we then review the current body of knowledge on different methods of tick control-including chemical, biological, genetical, immunological, and ecological methods-and the latest developments in the field, with a focus on those that have been tested against ticks from the genus Hyalomma. In the absence of a fully and unique efficient approach, we demonstrated that integrated pest management combining several approaches adapted to the local context and species is currently the best strategy for tick control together with a rational use of acaricide. Continued efforts are needed to develop and implement new and innovative methods of tick control.

Meteorological and climatic variables predict the phenology of Ixodes ricinus nymph activity in France, accounting for habitat heterogeneity.

Ixodes ricinus ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) are the most important vector for Lyme borreliosis in Europe. As climate change might affect their distributions and activities, this study aimed to determine the effects of environmental factors, i.e., meteorological, bioclimatic, and habitat characteristics on host-seeking (questing) activity of I. ricinus nymphs, an important stage in disease transmissions, across diverse climatic types in France over 8 years. Questing activity was observed using a repeated removal sampling with a cloth-dragging technique in 11 sampling sites from 7 tick observatories from 2014 to 2021 at approximately 1-month intervals, involving 631 sampling campaigns. Three phenological patterns were observed, potentially following a climatic gradient. The mixed-effects negative binomial regression revealed that observed nymph counts were driven by different interval-average meteorological variables, including 1-month moving average temperature, previous 3-to-6-month moving average temperature, and 6-month moving average minimum relative humidity. The interaction effects indicated that the phenology in colder climates peaked differently from that of warmer climates. Also, land cover characteristics that support the highest baseline abundance were moderate forest fragmentation with transition borders with agricultural areas. Finally, our model could potentially be used to predict seasonal human-tick exposure risks in France that could contribute to mitigating Lyme borreliosis risk.

Where to find questing Ixodes frontalis ticks? Under bamboo bushes!

Tick-borne diseases have a complex epidemiology that depends on different ecological communities, associating several species of vertebrate hosts, vectors and pathogens. While most studies in Europe are focused on Ixodes ricinus, other Ixodes species may also be involved in the transmission or maintenance of pathogens. This is the case of Ixodes frontalis, a poorly known species associated with different bird species such as blackbirds, thrushes and robins, with a wide distribution covering most European countries. In a previous study, high densities of questing I. frontalis larvae were found during autumn-winter at a site close to Nantes (western France) where a long-term survey focused on I. ricinus was conducted. These I. frontalis were mostly observed under bamboo bushes. In the present study, we investigated the presence of I. frontalis under bamboo bushes at various locations. With that aim in mind, a systematic search for questing I. frontalis was undertaken by the flagging method in public urban parks and private gardens presenting bamboo bushes (32 sites). This survey was carried out during autumn-winter to maximize the probability of finding the most abundant stage, i.e. larvae. We searched for I. frontalis first in the area of Nantes (10 sites), then in other regions of France (21 sites) and at one site in northern Italy. A single visit to each site revealed the presence of I. frontalis at 29 out of 32 sites: larvae were always present, nymphs were frequent (59 % of the positive sites), while adults were found at only 14 % of the sites. Questing stages of this understudied species are thus easy to find, by dragging or flagging under bamboo bushes in autumn or winter. We make the assumption that bamboo offers a favourable place for birds to roost overnight outside their breeding period (i.e. spring), sheltered from both predators and wind. This would explain higher densities of I. frontalis under bamboo, relative to other biotopes. As I. frontalis is known to harbour zoonotic pathogens, the consequences of this discovery on the epidemiology of tick-borne diseases are discussed.

Unravelling the phenology of Ixodes frontalis, a common but understudied tick species in Europe.

Tick-borne diseases have a complex epidemiology that depends on different ecological communities, associating several species of vertebrate hosts, vectors and pathogens. While most studies in Europe are focused on Ixodes ricinus, the common sheep tick, other Ixodes species may also be involved in the transmission or maintenance of different pathogens. In this study, we describe for the first time the activity pattern of I. frontalis, an understudied but widespread tick species associated with several common bird species in Europe. Questing ixodid tick stages (larvae, nymphs and adults) of both I. frontalis and I. ricinus were monitored by the drag sampling method over three years at the same locations in Western France. Differential activities were observed depending on I. frontalis life stages: nymphs and adults were present sporadically on the ground throughout the year, while larvae exhibited a marked peak of activity around October-November with tens or even hundreds of individuals per m2, followed by a slow decrease in winter. Larvae were completely absent in summer, which contrasts with the high numbers of I. ricinus larvae at this time of the year. The vegetation and the litter where the two tick species were found also exhibited marked differences, with I. frontalis mostly collected under bamboo bushes.

Dynamic Modeling of Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus (CCHFV) Spread to Test Control Strategies.

Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever is a zoonotic disease which has emerged or re-emerged recently in Eastern Europe and Turkey. The causative agent is a virus, mainly transmitted by ticks of the species Hyalomma marginatum (Koch, 1844, Ixodida, Amblyommidae). To test potential scenarios for the control of pathogen spread, a dynamic mechanistic model has been developed that takes into account the major processes involved in tick population dynamics and pathogen spread. The tick population dynamics model represents both abiotic (meteorological variables) and biotic (hare and cattle densities) factors in the determination of processes (development, host finding, and mortality). The infection model consists of an SIRS model for the host part whereas a lifelong infectiousness was considered for ticks. The model was first applied to a zone in Central Anatolia (Turkey). Simulated dynamics represent the average reported level of infection in vectors and hosts. A sensitivity analysis to parameter value has been carried out and highlighted the role of transstadial transmission as well as acquisition of the pathogen by immature stages. Applying the model to different sites of Turkey shows different patterns in the dynamics of acarological risk (number of infectious questing adults). This model was thereafter used to test control strategies. Simulation results indicate that acaricide treatments and decrease in hare density could have valuable effects when combined, either on the acarological risk or on the prevalence in cattle. The kind of model we have developed provides insight into the ability of different strategies to prevent and control disease spread.

Evaluation of Two PCR Tests for Coxiella burnetii Detection in Dairy Cattle Farms Using Latent Class Analysis.

Different tests performed on bulk tank milk samples (BTM) are available to determine the C. burnetii status of herds. However, these tests, which are based on the detection of either antibodies directed against C. burnetii (ELISA) or bacterial DNA (PCR), have limitations. A currently disease-free herd infected in the past may continue to test positive with ELISA due to the persistence of antibodies in animals that were infected and that subsequently cleared the infection. Infectious herds can also be misclassified using PCR because of the absence of bacteria in the BTM when the test is performed. Recently, PCR has been used for bacterial DNA detection in the farm environment, which constitutes the main reservoir of C. burnetii. The objectives of this study were to assess and compare the sensitivities and specificities of one commonly used PCR test in BTM (PCR BTM) and of a PCR applied to environmental samples (PCR DUST) in dairy cattle farms. BTM and dust samples were collected (using environmental swabs) in 95 herds. The evaluation of the performance of the 2 tests was conducted using latent class models accounting for within herd disease dynamics. Parameter estimation was carried out using MCMC, within a Bayesian framework. Two types of priors were used for the specificity of PCR DUST. A model with a uniform prior on 0-1 fitted the data better than a model with a uniform prior on 0.95-1. With the best model PCR DUST had a lower sensitivity than PCR BTM (0.75 versus 0.83) and a specificity of 0.72. The moderately low value for the specificity of PCR DUST suggests that the presence of bacteria on farm is not always associated with persistent infections and shedding of bacteria in milk.

Relative contributions of neighbourhood and animal movements to Coxiella burnetii infection in dairy cattle herds.

Q fever in dairy cattle herds occurs mainly after inhalation of contaminated aerosols generated from excreta by shedder animals. Propagation of Coxiella burnetii, the cause of the disease between ruminant herds could result from transmission between neighbouring herds and/or the introduction of infected shedder animals in healthy herds. The objective of this study were (i) to describe the spatial distribution C. burnetii-infected dairy cattle herds in two different regions: the Finistère District in France (2,829 herds) and the island of Gotland in Sweden (119 herds) and (ii) to quantify and compare the relative contributions of C. burnetii transmission related to neighbourhood and to animal movements on the risk for a herd to be infected. An enzyme--linked immunosorbent assay was used for testing bulk tank milk in May 2012 and June 2011, respectively. Only one geographical cluster of positive herds was identified in north-western Finistère. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of risk for a herd to test positively with local cattle density (the total number of cattle located in a 5 km radius circle) and the in-degree (ID) parameter, a measure of the number of herds from which each herd had received animals directly within the last 2 years. The risk for a herd to test positively was higher for herds with a higher local cattle density [odds ratio (OR) = 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.6-3.2, for herds with a local density between 100 and 120 compared to herds with a local density 60]. The risk was also higher for herds with higher IDs (OR = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.6-3.2, for herds with ID 3 compared to herds that did not introduce animals). The proportion of cases attributable to infections in the neighbourhood in high-density areas was twice the proportion attributable to animal movements, suggesting that wind plays a main role in the transmission.

Modelling bovine babesiosis: a tool to simulate scenarios for pathogen spread and to test control measures for the disease.

Tick-borne diseases are of increasing concern in many countries, particularly as a consequence of changes in land use and climate. Ticks are vectors of numerous pathogens (viruses, bacteria, protozoa) that can be harmful to humans and animals. In the context of animal health, bovine babesiosis poses a recurrent threat to cattle herds. In this study, we use a modeling approach to investigate the spread of babesiosis and evaluate control measures. A previously developed tick population dynamics model (here, Ixodes ricinus) is coupled with a pathogen spread model (here, the protozoan Babesia divergens), which describes pathogen spread in a dairy herd through the following processes: transmission, acquisition, transovarial transmission, transstadial persistence, and clearance of the pathogen. An assessment of the simulated B. divergens prevalence levels in ticks and cattle in the context of existing knowledge and data suggested that the model provides a realistic representation of pathogen spread. The model was then used to evaluate the influence of host density and the effect of acaricides on B. divergens prevalence in cattle. Increasing deer density results in an increase in prevalence in cattle whereas increasing cattle stocking rate results in a slight decrease. A potential increase in deer density would thus have an amplification effect on disease spread due to the increase in the number of infected ticks. Regular use of acaricides produces a reduction in pathogen prevalence in cattle. This model could be adapted to other tick-borne diseases.

A Vegetation Index qualifying pasture edges is related to Ixodes ricinus density and to Babesia divergens seroprevalence in dairy cattle herds.

Babesia divergens, transmitted by the tick Ixodes ricinus, is the main agent of bovine piroplasmosis in France. This Apicomplexa often is present in asymptomatic carriers; however, clinical cases are rare. While numerous factors are known to influence tick density, no risk factor of contact with B. divergens has been identified for cattle. Our study aimed to explore whether a Vegetation Index could serve as an indirect indicator of within-herd B. divergens seroprevalence. In February 2007, blood samples were taken from all of the cows in 19 dairy cattle herds in Western France and IFAT serology was performed individually to measure B. divergens seroprevalence. The following spring, I. ricinus nymphs were collected by drag sampling along transects on the vegetation of each farm's pasture perimeters. Tick density was related significantly to a Vegetation Index (V.I., ranging from 1 to 5) that took into account the abundance of trees and bushes on the edge of pastures: most ticks (57%) were found in transects with the highest V.I. (covering 15% of the explored surface in the study area). At the farm level, the proportion of transects presenting I. ricinus nymphs was significantly related to B. divergens seroprevalence: the farms with more than 15% of transects with I. ricinus had a significantly higher risk of high seroprevalence. The proportion of pasture perimeters where the V.I.=5 also was significantly related to B. divergens seroprevalence: the farms where more than 20% of transects had a V.I.=5 had a significantly higher risk of high seroprevalence. Given that the Vegetation Index is a steady indicator of the potential I. ricinus density in the biotope, we recommend that the risk of high B. divergens seroprevalence in cows be evaluated using this tool rather than drag samplings.

Modelling Salmonella spread within a farrow-to-finish pig herd.

Delivery of infected pigs to the slaughterhouse is a major source of pork meat contamination by bacterial hazards to humans. We propose a model of Salmonella spread within a farrow-to-finish pig herd, assuming the prevalence in infected delivered pigs depends on the whole pig life-time and growing process. This stochastic discrete-time model represents both the population dynamics in a farrow-to-finish pig herd using batch management, and Salmonella spread. Four mutually exclusive individual health states were considered: Salmonella-free, seronegative shedder, seropositive shedder and seropositive not shedding carrier, making the distinction between seropositive animals and shedders. Since indirect transmission is the main route of transmission, the probability of infection depends on the quantity of Salmonella in the pigs' environment (Q). A dose effect function is used with two thresholds, assuming saturation in exposure for high Q vs. a minimum exposure for low Q. Salmonella is introduced in an initially Salmonella-free 150-sow herd. Prevalence of shedders and seroprevalence are calculated over time in batches of sows and pigs, and in groups of delivered pigs, composed of pigs from different batches. The model shows very variable seroprevalence over time within a herd among delivered groups, as well as among replications. The mean seroprevalence and the mean shedding prevalence are 19.3% and 13.8% respectively. A sensitivity analysis shows that the Salmonella quantity shed and the maternal protective factor are the most influential parameters on Salmonella prevalence in delivered pigs.