Skin carotenoid scores and metabolic syndrome in a general Japanese population: the Hisayama study.

BACKGROUND: Higher vegetable intake is being promoted as an initiative to prevent lifestyle-related diseases. Carotenoids are yellow or red pigment components and are widely present in vegetables. Since ingested carotenoids accumulate in the skin, skin carotenoid levels are a quantitative indicator of vegetable intake. Recently, noninvasive optical sensors for assessing skin carotenoid levels were developed. We here examined the association between skin carotenoid scores measured using optical sensors and the presence of metabolic syndrome. METHODS: A total of 1618 individuals (604 men and 1014 women) aged ≥ 40 years (mean age 63.1 years) participated in the study. Skin carotenoid scores were determined using a noninvasive optical sensor based on multiple spatially resolved reflectance spectroscopy. Metabolic syndrome was defined based on the Joint Scientific Statement criteria developed by six international scientific societies. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models were used. RESULTS: The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 31.3% (n = 506). A remarkably strong association was found between higher skin carotenoid scores and lower prevalence of metabolic syndrome after adjusting for confounders. The multivariable-adjusted odds ratio for the presence of metabolic syndrome in individuals with the highest quartile of skin carotenoid scores was 0.39 (95% confidence interval, 0.28-0.55) compared to those with the lowest quartile. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that higher skin carotenoid scores measured by non-invasive optimal sensors are significantly associated with a lower likelihood of having metabolic syndrome in the general Japanese population.

Dietary diversity moderates household economic inequalities in the double burden of malnutrition in Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: Improved food availability and a growing economy in Tanzania may insufficiently decrease pre-existing nutritional deficiencies and simultaneously increase overweight within the same individual, household or population, causing a double burden of malnutrition (DBM). We investigated economic inequalities in DBM at the household level, expressed as a stunted child with a mother with overweight/obesity, and the moderating role of dietary diversity in these inequalities. DESIGN: We used cross-sectional data from the 2015-2016 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey. SETTING: A nationally representative survey. PARTICIPANTS: Totally, 2867 children (aged 6-23 months) and their mothers (aged 15-49 years). The mother-child pairs were categorised into two groups based on dietary diversity score: achieving and not achieving minimum dietary diversity. RESULTS: The prevalence of DBM was 5·6 % (sd = 0·6) and significantly varied by region (ranging from 0·6 % to 12·2 %). Significant interaction was observed between dietary diversity and household wealth index (Pfor interaction < 0·001). The prevalence of DBM monotonically increased with greater household wealth among mother-child pairs who did not achieve minimum dietary diversity (Pfor trend < 0·001; however, this association was attenuated in those who achieved minimum dietary diversity (Pfor trend = 0·16), particularly for the richest households (P = 0·44). Analysing household wealth index score as a continuous variable yielded similar results (OR (95 % CI): 2·10 (1·36, 3·25) for non-achievers of minimum dietary diversity, 1·38 (0·76, 2·54) for achievers). CONCLUSIONS: Greater household wealth was associated with higher odds of DBM in Tanzania; however, the negative impact of household economic status on DBM was mitigated by minimum dietary diversity.

Association between masticatory function, frailty, and functional disability: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Increase in functional disability in aging societies is an international medical and public health issue. Masticatory function may be a potential risk factor for functional disability, but the role of frailty in the association has not been clarified. METHODS: Forty thousand five hundred sixty-two community-dwelling older adults aged 65 years and over who were insured by public health insurance as of April 2018 were followed up for a median of 3.0 years. Masticatory function was categorized as good, moderate, or poor based on a self-reported questionnaire. The development of functional disability was defined as a new certification of the need for long-term care. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 1,397 individuals experienced functional disability. After adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities, medical history, and lifestyle behaviors, the HR for incident functional disability was significantly higher in the moderate and poor groups compared to the good group (moderate, HR 1.21 [95% CI, 1.07-1.37]; poor, HR 1.64 [95% CI, 1.03-2.62]). However, after additional adjustment for frailty-related factors-namely, underweight, regular exercise, and gait speed-the association was attenuated in both the moderate group (HR 1.06 [95% CI, 0.94-1.21]) and the poor group (HR 1.51 [95% CI, 0.94-2.41]). CONCLUSIONS: Masticatory dysfunction was significantly associated with incident functional disability in a community-dwelling older Japanese population. Our findings suggest that masticatory dysfunction may be a surrogate of frailty rather than a direct cause of functional disability.

Plasma biomarkers for predicting the development of dementia in a community-dwelling older Japanese population.

AIM: To assess the association between plasma amyloid ß (Aß) 42/40, phosphorylated tau (p-τ)181, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), or neurofilament light chain (NfL) and the risk of dementia and to determine whether these plasma biomarkers could improve the ability to predict incident dementia in a general older population. METHODS: A total of 1346 Japanese community-dwelling individuals aged ≥65 years without dementia were followed prospectively for 5.0 years. Plasma biomarkers were quantified using a Simoa HD-X analyzer. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratios of each plasma biomarker level for the risk of dementia. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 151 participants developed dementia, of whom 108 had Alzheimer disease (AD) and 43 non-Alzheimer dementia (non-AD). Lower plasma Aß42/40 levels and higher plasma p-τ181 levels were significantly associated with developing AD but not non-AD, whereas significant associations were observed between higher plasma levels of GFAP and NfL and risk of both AD and non-AD (all P for trend <0.05). In addition, adding these four plasma biomarkers into a model consisting of the total score of the dementia risk model significantly improved the predictive ability for incident dementia. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that plasma Aß42/40 and p-τ181 are specific markers of AD, and plasma GFAP and NfL are potential biomarkers for all-cause dementia in the general Japanese older population. In addition, the measurement of these plasma biomarkers may be a useful and relatively low-invasive procedure for identifying individuals at high risk for developing dementia in clinical practice.

Accelerometer-measured sedentary behavior and risk of functional disability in older Japanese adults: a 9-year prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The associations of sedentary time and patterns with functional disability among older adults remain unclear, and few studies have accounted for the co-dependency of sedentary behavior and physical activities when modeling sedentary behavior with risk of functional disability. We aimed to examine the associations between sedentary time and patterns and risk of incident functional disability, and assess whether replacing sedentary time with light physical activity (LPA) or moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) is associated with reduced risk of functional disability in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: A total of 1,687 Japanese adults aged ≥ 65 years without functional disability at baseline were prospectively followed-up for 9 years (2011-2020). Functional disability was ascertained using the national database of Japan's Long-term Care Insurance System. Sedentary time and patterns, LPA, and MVPA were measured using a tri-axial accelerometer secured to participants' waists. RESULTS: During follow-up, 466 participants developed functional disability. Compared with the lowest quartile of total sedentary time, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of functional disability for the second, third, and top quartiles were 1.21 (0.91‒1.62), 1.45 (1.10‒1.92), and 1.40 (1.05‒1.88) (p for trend = 0.01). After further adjusting for MVPA, total sedentary time was no longer significantly associated with the risk of functional disability (p for trend = 0.41). Replacing 10 min/day of sedentary time with the same amount of MVPA (but not LPA) was significantly associated with a 12% reduced risk of functional disability (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.88 [0.84‒0.92]). No significant association was observed between sedentary bout length and functional disability. CONCLUSION: Higher levels of total sedentary time were associated with an increased risk of incident functional disability. However, this association was not independent of MVPA. Replacing sedentary time with MVPA, but not LPA, was associated with reduced risk of functional disability in older adults.

Risks of dementia in a general Japanese older population with preserved ratio impaired spirometry: The Hisayama Study.

BACKGROUND: Studies on the association between preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) and dementia are limited. Indeed, PRISm has often been overlooked or ignored as an index of lung function impairment. Therefore, we investigated the association of PRISm with the risk for the development of dementia in an older Japanese population. METHODS: A total of 1202 community-dwelling, older Japanese participants aged ≥65 years without dementia were followed up for a median of 5.0 years. Participants were categorized by spirometry as follows: normal spirometry (FEV1/FVC ≥0.70 and FEV1 ≥80% predicted), PRISm (≥0.70 and <80%), airflow limitation (AFL) Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1 (<0.70 and ≥80%), and AFL GOLD 2 to 4 (<0.70 and <80%). Hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 122 participants developed dementia. The age- and sex-adjusted incidences of dementia in the participants with normal spirometry, PRISm, AFL GOLD 1, and AFL GOLD 2 to 4 were 20.5, 37.0, 18.4, and 28.6 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Participants with PRISm had a higher risk of dementia (HR 2.04 [95%CI, 1.19-3.49]) than those with normal spirometry after adjusting for confounders. Moreover, both reduced FEV1% predicted values and FVC% predicted values were associated with the risk for dementia. CONCLUSION: PRISm was associated with an increased risk of dementia in a general older Japanese population.

Risks of Mortality and Airflow Limitation in Japanese Individuals with Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry.

Rationale: Several Western studies have reported that participants with preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) have higher risks of airflow limitation (AFL) and death. However, evidence in East Asian populations is limited. Objectives: To investigate the relationship between PRISm and the risks of death and incident AFL in a Japanese population. Methods: A total of 3,032 community-dwelling Japanese participants aged ⩾40 years were seen in follow-up for a median of 5.3 years by annual spirometry examinations. Participants were classified into lung function categories at baseline as follows: normal spirometry (FEV1/FVC ⩾0.70 and FEV1 ⩾80% predicted), PRISm (⩾0.70 and <80%), AFL Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 1 (<0.70 and ⩾80%), and AFL Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 2-4 (<0.70 and <80%). Hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Measurements and Main Results: During the follow-up period, 131 participants died, 22 of whom died of cardiovascular disease, and 218 participants developed AFL. When examining the prognosis of each baseline lung function category, participants with PRISm had higher risks of all-cause death (HR, 2.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-3.59) and cardiovascular death (HR, 4.07; 1.07-15.42) than those with normal spirometry after adjusting for confounders. Moreover, the multivariable-adjusted risk of incident AFL was greater in participants with PRISm than in those with normal spirometry (HR, 2.48; 1.83-3.36). Conclusions: PRISm was associated with higher risks of all-cause and cardiovascular death and a greater risk of the development of AFL in a Japanese community.

Association of white matter lesions and brain atrophy with the development of dementia in a community: the Hisayama Study.

AIM: To investigate the association of white matter lesions volume (WMLV) levels with dementia risk and the association between dementia risk and the combined measures of WMLV and either total brain atrophy or dementia-related gray matter atrophy in a general older population. METHODS: One thousand one hundred fifty-eight Japanese dementia-free community-residents aged ≥65 years who underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging were followed for 5.0 years. WMLV were segmented using the Lesion Segmentation Toolbox. Total brain volume (TBV) and regional gray matter volume were estimated by voxel-based morphometry. The WMLV-to-intracranial brain volume ratio (WMLV/ICV) was calculated, and its association with dementia risk was estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Total brain atrophy, defined as the TBV-to-ICV ratio (TBV/ICV), and dementia-related regional brain atrophy defined based on our previous report were calculated. The association between dementia risk and the combined measures of WMLV/ICV and either total brain atrophy or the number of atrophied regions was also tested. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 113 participants developed dementia. The risks of dementia increased significantly with higher WMLV/ICV levels. In addition, dementia risk increased additively both in participants with higher WMLV/ICV levels and lower TBV/ICV levels and in those with higher WMLV/ICV levels and a higher number of dementia-related brain regional atrophy. CONCLUSION: The risk of dementia increased significantly with higher WMLV/ICV levels. An additive increment in dementia risk was observed with higher WMLV/ICV levels and lower TBV/ICV levels or a higher number of dementia-related brain regional atrophy, suggesting the importance of prevention or control of cardiovascular risk factors.

Gender and age influence the association between gait speed and mild cognitive impairment in community-dwelling Japanese older adults: from the Japan Prospective Studies Collaboration for Ageing and Dementia (JPSC-AD).

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that decreased gait speed is associated with impaired cognitive function. However, whether this association is equivalent across ages or genders in the older population remains unclear. Thus, we examined the association between mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and gait speed emphasising the influence of age and gender. METHODS: Overall, 8233 Japanese participants aged ≥65 years were enrolled in this cross-sectional study between 2016 and 2018. After stratification by gender and age group, the participants' gait speeds were divided into quintiles, and the difference in MCI prevalence at each gait speed quintile was calculated. Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the odds of MCI for each quintile and to assess the influence of age and gender. RESULTS: Males had a consistently higher prevalence of MCI than females. The odds of MCI were increased as gait speed decreased. Logistic regression analyses revealed that in the multivariable-adjusted model 2, the odds ratios (95% confidence interval; CI) for MCI were 2.02 (1.47-2.76) for females and 1.75 (1.29-2.38) for males in the slowest gait speed quintiles compared to the fastest quintile. In the stratified analyses, only males showed an age-dependent increase in the associations between gait speed and MCI, while females exhibited comparable associations across age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced gait speed was associated with increased odds of MCI, and this association may vary according to gender and age. Therefore, gait speed could serve as a valuable screening tool for MCI, with gender- and age-dependent clinical implications.

Multiple-region grey matter atrophy as a predictor for the development of dementia in a community: the Hisayama Study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of regional grey matter atrophy with dementia risk in a general older Japanese population. METHODS: We followed 1158 dementia-free Japanese residents aged ≥65 years for 5.0 years. Regional grey matter volume (GMV) at baseline was estimated by applying voxel-based morphometry methods. The GMV-to-total brain volume ratio (GMV/TBV) was calculated, and its association with dementia risk was estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. We assessed whether the predictive ability of a model based on known dementia risk factors could be improved by adding the total number of regions with grey matter atrophy among dementia-related brain regions, where the cut-off value for grey matter atrophy in each region was determined by receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 113 participants developed all-cause dementia, including 83 with Alzheimer's disease (AD). Lower GMV/TBV of the medial temporal lobe, insula, hippocampus and amygdala were significantly/marginally associated with higher risk of all-cause dementia and AD (all p for trend ≤0.08). The risks of all-cause dementia and AD increased significantly with increasing total number of brain regions exhibiting grey matter atrophy (both p for trend <0.01). Adding the total number of regions with grey matter atrophy into a model consisting of known risk factors significantly improved the predictive ability for AD (Harrell's c-statistics: 0.765-0.802; p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the total number of regions with grey matter atrophy among the medial temporal lobe, insula, hippocampus and amygdala is a significant predictor for developing dementia, especially AD, in the general older population.

Serum lipopolysaccharide-binding protein levels and the incidence of metabolic syndrome in a general Japanese population: the Hisayama Study.

BACKGROUND: The association between chronic lipopolysaccharide exposure and the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS) is unclear. In this study we examined the association between serum lipopolysaccharide-binding protein (LBP) levels, an indicator of lipopolysaccharide exposure, and the development of MetS in a general Japanese population. METHODS: 1,869 community-dwelling Japanese individuals aged ≥40 years without MetS at baseline examination in 2002-2003 were followed up by repeated examination in 2007-2008. MetS was defined according to the Japanese criteria. Serum LBP levels were classified into quartiles (quartiles 1-4: 2.20-9.56, 9.57-10.78, 10.79-12.18, and 12.19-24.34 µg/mL, respectively). Odds ratios (ORs) for developing MetS were calculated using a logistic regression model. RESULTS: At the follow-up survey, 159 participants had developed MetS. Higher serum LBP levels were associated with greater risk of developing MetS after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, smoking, drinking, and exercise habits (OR [95% confidence interval] for quartiles 1-4: 1.00 [reference], 2.92 [1.59-5.37], 3.48 [1.91-6.35], and 3.86 [2.12-7.03], respectively; P for trend <0.001). After additional adjustment for homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, this association was attenuated but remained significant (P for trend=0.007). On the other hand, no significant association was observed after additional adjustment for serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (P for trend=0.07). CONCLUSIONS: In the general Japanese population, our findings suggest that higher serum LBP levels are associated with elevated risk of developing MetS. Low-grade endotoxemia could play a role in the development of MetS through systemic chronic inflammation and insulin resistance.

Long-term association of vegetable and fruit intake with risk of dementia in Japanese older adults: the Hisayama study.

BACKGROUND: Several prospective Western studies have reported an inverse association of vegetable and fruit intake with dementia risk. However, there is limited epidemiologic evidence in Asians. This study investigated the association of intakes of vegetables, fruits, and their nutrients on the risk of incident dementia and its subtypes in a Japanese community. METHODS: A total of 1071 participants (452 men and 619 women) aged ≥60 years without dementia at baseline were prospectively followed up for 24 years. Intakes of vegetables, fruits, and nutrients were evaluated using a 70-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire at baseline and were categorized into quartiles separately by gender. The outcome measure was the development of dementia and its subtypes-namely, Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VaD). The risk estimates of incident dementia were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the long-term follow-up period, 464 subjects developed dementia, of whom 286 had AD and 144 had VaD. Higher vegetable intake was associated gradually with lower risk of developing dementia and AD (both P-trend < 0.05), but not VaD, after adjusting for confounders. Subjects allocated the highest quartile of vegetable intake had 27 and 31% lower risk of dementia and AD, respectively, than those with the lowest quartile. The risk of dementia decreased significantly with higher intakes of vitamin A, riboflavin, vitamin C, magnesium, calcium, and potassium (all P-trend < 0.05). Subjects with higher total dietary fiber intake tended to be at decreased risk for total dementia (P-trend = 0.07). Meanwhile, there were no significant associations between fruit intake and the risk of dementia and its subtypes. CONCLUSION: Higher intakes of vegetables and their constituent nutrients were associated with a lower risk of dementia in Japanese older adults. A diet rich in vegetables may be beneficial in reducing the dementia risk in Asians.

Muscle-strengthening activities are associated with lower risk and mortality in major non-communicable diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the associations between muscle-strengthening activities and the risk of non-communicable diseases and mortality in adults independent of aerobic activities. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE and Embase were searched from inception to June 2021 and the reference lists of all related articles were reviewed. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Prospective cohort studies that examined the association between muscle-strengthening activities and health outcomes in adults aged ≥18 years without severe health conditions. RESULTS: Sixteen studies met the eligibility criteria. Muscle-strengthening activities were associated with a 10-17% lower risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD), total cancer, diabetes and lung cancer. No association was found between muscle-strengthening activities and the risk of some site-specific cancers (colon, kidney, bladder and pancreatic cancers). J-shaped associations with the maximum risk reduction (approximately 10-20%) at approximately 30-60 min/week of muscle-strengthening activities were found for all-cause mortality, CVD and total cancer, whereas an L-shaped association showing a large risk reduction at up to 60 min/week of muscle-strengthening activities was observed for diabetes. Combined muscle-strengthening and aerobic activities (versus none) were associated with a lower risk of all-cause, CVD and total cancer mortality. CONCLUSION: Muscle-strengthening activities were inversely associated with the risk of all-cause mortality and major non-communicable diseases including CVD, total cancer, diabetes and lung cancer; however, the influence of a higher volume of muscle-strengthening activities on all-cause mortality, CVD and total cancer is unclear when considering the observed J-shaped associations. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020219808.

Comparison of the contributions of impaired beta cell function and insulin resistance to the development of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese community: the Hisayama Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to compare the contributions of impaired beta cell function (IBF) and insulin resistance with the development of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese community. METHODS: A total of 2094 residents aged 40-79 years without diabetes underwent a health examination including a 75 g OGTT in 2007. Participants were divided into four groups according to the presence or absence of IBF (insulinogenic index/HOMA-IR ≤28.5) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR ≥1.61) and were followed up for 7 years (2007-2014). Cox's proportional hazards model was used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs for type 2 diabetes. The population attributable fractions (PAFs) due to IBF, insulin resistance, and their combination were calculated. RESULTS: At baseline, the prevalence of isolated IBF, isolated insulin resistance, and both IBF and insulin resistance were 5.4%, 24.1% and 9.5%, respectively. During the follow-up period, 272 participants developed type 2 diabetes. The multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) and PAFs (95% CI) for type 2 diabetes were 6.3 (4.3, 9.2) and 13.3% (8.7, 17.7) in the participants with isolated IBF, 1.9 (1.3, 2.7) and 10.5% (4.0, 16.6) in those with isolated insulin resistance, and 8.0 (5.7, 11.4) and 29.3% (23.0, 35.1) in those with both IBF and insulin resistance, respectively, compared with the participants without either. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The present study suggests that the combination of IBF and insulin resistance makes the main contribution to the development of type 2 diabetes in Japanese communities.

High Serum Folate Concentrations Are Associated with Decreased Risk of Mortality among Japanese Adults.

BACKGROUND: Folate and vitamin B-12 are essential nutrients for normal cell growth and replication, but the association of serum folate and vitamin B-12 concentrations with mortality risk remains uncertain. OBJECTIVE: This study was performed to investigate the associations of serum folate and vitamin B-12 concentrations with mortality risk and test whether the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T polymorphism modifies these associations. METHODS: A total of 3050 Japanese community residents aged ≥40 y were prospectively followed-up for mortality between 2002 and 2012. Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic splines were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs of mortality. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 10.2 y, 336 participants died. Higher serum folate concentrations were associated with lower risks of all-cause mortality [multivariable-adjusted HR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.96 for the second tertile (8.8-12.2 nmol/L; median 10.4 nmol/L) and HR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.46, 0.80 for the third tertile (≥12.5 nmol/L; median 15.6 nmol/L) serum folate concentrations compared with the first tertile (≤8.6 nmol/L; median 7.0 nmol/L)]. This association remained significant in all sensitivity analyses. Spline analyses showed a steady decline in all-cause mortality risk with increasing serum folate concentrations up to 20-25 nmol/L. This association persisted regardless of the MTHFR C677T genotypes. For serum vitamin B-12, the multivariable-adjusted HR of 1.32 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.79) of all-cause mortality was marginally significantly greater in the first tertile compared with the second tertile. This association was attenuated and nonsignificant after the exclusion of participants with a history of cardiovascular disease or cancer, or participants aged ≥85 y at baseline, or deaths in the first 3 y of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Serum folate concentrations were inversely associated with the risk of all-cause mortality in Japanese adults. Serum vitamin B-12 concentrations were not consistently associated with all-cause mortality risk after accounting for reverse-causation bias.

Risk Prediction Model for Incident Atrial Fibrillation in a General Japanese Population　- The Hisayama Study.

BACKGROUND: The risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is useful to prevent AF and its complications. The aim of this study is to develop a new risk prediction model for incident AF using the prospective longitudinal data from a general Japanese population.Methods and Results:A total of 2,442 community-dwelling AF-free residents aged ≥40 years were followed up from 1988 to 2012 (46,422 person-years). The development of AF was confirmed by a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram at repeated health examinations and by medical records at clinics or hospitals. The risk prediction model for incident AF was developed using a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow up, 230 AF events were confirmed. Age, sex, systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, estimated glomerular filtration rate, abnormal cardiac murmur, high R-wave amplitude, and arrhythmia other than AF were selected for inclusion in the model. This model showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistics: 0.785) and calibration (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test: P=0.87) for AF risk at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: The new risk prediction model showed good performance on the individual risk assessment of the future onset of AF in a general Japanese population. As this model included commonly used clinical parameters, it may be useful for determining the requirements for the careful evaluation of AF, such as frequent electrocardiogram examinations in clinical settings, and subsequent reductions in the risk of AF-related complications.

Prevalence and Mortality of Sarcopenia in a Community-dwelling Older Japanese Population: The Hisayama Study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of sarcopenia defined using the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia (AWGS) criteria in Asian communities has not been fully addressed. Moreover, few studies have addressed the influence of sarcopenia on mortality. METHODS: A total of 1,371 and 1,597 residents aged 65 years or older participated in health surveys in 2012 and 2017. Sarcopenia was determined using the AWGS definition. Factors associated with the presence of sarcopenia were assessed using a logistic regression model in participants in the 2012 survey. Subjects in the 2012 survey were followed-up prospectively for a median of 4.3 years. Mortality risk for subjects with sarcopenia was examined using the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The crude prevalence of sarcopenia was 7.4% and 6.6% in participants at the 2012 and 2017 surveys, respectively; there was no significant difference between surveys (P = 0.44). The prevalence of sarcopenia increased significantly with age in both sexes (both P for trend <0.001). Subjects with sarcopenia were more likely to exercise less regularly, to intake less total energy, and to exhibit a disability in activity of daily living than those without. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 2.20 (95% confidence interval, 1.25-3.85) in subjects with sarcopenia, compared to those without. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 7% of older subjects had sarcopenia in a community-dwelling older Japanese population. Moreover, subjects with sarcopenia had an increased mortality risk. Our findings suggest that a public health strategy for sarcopenia is needed to extend healthy life expectancy.

Potential utility of physical function measures to improve the risk prediction of functional disability in community-dwelling older Japanese adults: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: While gait speed, one-leg standing balance, and handgrip strength have been shown to be independent predictors for functional disability, it is unclear whether such simple measures of physical function contribute to improved risk prediction of functional disability in older adults. METHODS: A total of 1,591 adults aged ≥ 65 years and without functional disability at baseline were followed up for up to 7.9 years. Functional disability was identified using the database of Japan's Long-term Care Insurance System. Maximum gait speed, one-leg standing time, and handgrip strength were measured at baseline. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of physical function and functional disability incidence. The incremental predictive value of each physical function measure for risk prediction was quantified using the difference in overall C-statistic, category-free net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) index. RESULTS: During follow-up (median: 7.8 years), functional disability was identified in 384 participants. All of the physical function measures were inversely associated with the risk of functional disability, independent of potential confounding factors. The multivariable adjusted HRs (95 % CIs) for functional disability per one standard deviation increment of maximum gait speed, one-leg-standing time, and hand grip strength were 0.73 (0.65-0.83), 0.68 (0.59-0.79), and 0.72 (0.59-0.86), respectively. Incorporation of each of maximum gait speed, one-leg-stand time, and hand grip strength into a basic model with other risk factors significantly improved C-statistic from 0.770 (95 % CIs, 0.751-0.794) to 0.778 (0.759-0.803), 0.782 (0.760-0.805), and 0.775 (0.756-0.800), respectively (all p < 0.05). A model including all three measures had the highest C-statistic of 0.787 (0.765-0.810). The improvements in risk prediction were also confirmed by category-free NRI and IDI index. CONCLUSIONS: Adding any of the three measures to a basic model with other known risk factors significantly improved the prediction of functional disability and addition of all three measures provided further improvement of the prediction in older Japanese adults. These data provide robust evidence to support the practical utility of incorporating these simple physical function measures into functional disability risk prediction tools.

Urinary N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide as a biomarker for cardiovascular events in a general Japanese population: the Hisayama Study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence has shown that serum N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentrations, a diagnostic biomarker for heart failure, are positively associated with cardiovascular risk. Since NT-proBNP in serum is excreted in urine, it is hypothesized that urinary NT-proBNP concentrations are correlated with serum concentrations and linked with cardiovascular risk in the general population. METHODS: A total of 3060 community-dwelling residents aged ≥ 40 years without history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were followed up for a median of 8.3 years (2007-2015). Serum and urinary concentrations of NT-proBNP at baseline were compared. The hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between NT-proBNP concentrations and the risk of developing CVD were computed using the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The median values (interquartile ranges) of serum and urinary NT-proBNP concentrations at baseline were 56 (32-104) pg/mL and 20 (18-25) pg/mL, respectively. There was a strong quadratic correlation between the serum and urinary concentrations of NT-proBNP (coefficient of determination [R2] = 0.72): urinary concentrations of 20, 27, and 43 pg/mL were equivalent to serum concentrations of 55, 125, and 300 pg/mL, respectively. During the follow-up period, 170 subjects developed CVD. The age- and sex-adjusted risk of CVD increased significantly with higher urinary NT-proBNP levels (P for trend < 0.001). This association remained significant after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors (P for trend = 0.009). The multivariable-adjusted risk of developing CVD almost doubled in subjects with urinary NT-proBNP of ≥ 43 pg/mL as compared to those with urinary NT-proBNP of ≤ 19 pg/mL (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.20-3.56). CONCLUSIONS: The present study demonstrated that urinary NT-proBNP concentrations were well-correlated with serum concentrations and were positively associated with cardiovascular risk. Given that urine sampling is noninvasive and does not require specially trained personnel, urinary NT-proBNP concentrations have the potential to be an easy and useful biomarker for detecting people at higher cardiovascular risk.

Serum Soluble Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid Cells 2 as a Biomarker for Incident Dementia: The Hisayama Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between serum soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (sTREM2), a soluble type of an innate immune receptor expressed on the microglia, and the risk of dementia. METHODS: A total of 1,349 Japanese community residents aged 60 and older without dementia were followed prospectively for 10 years (2002-2012). Serum sTREM2 levels were quantified by using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and divided into quartiles. Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) of serum sTREM2 levels on the risk of dementia. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 300 subjects developed all-cause dementia; 193 had Alzheimer's disease (AD), and 85 had vascular dementia (VaD). The age- and sex-adjusted incidences of all-cause dementia, AD, and VaD elevated significantly with higher serum sTREM2 levels (all p for trend < 0.012). These associations were not altered after adjustment for confounding factors, including high-sensitive C-reactive protein. Subjects with the highest quartile of serum sTREM2 levels had significantly higher multivariable-adjusted risks of developing all-cause dementia, AD, and VaD than those with the lowest quartile (HR = 2.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.39-2.97, p < 0.001 for all-cause dementia; HR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.02-2.55, p = 0.04 for AD; HR = 2.85, 95% CI = 1.35-6.02, p = 0.006 for VaD). No significant heterogeneity in the association of serum sTREM2 levels with the development of dementia was observed among the other risk factor subgroups (all p for heterogeneity > 0.11). INTERPRETATION: The present findings suggest a significant association between increased serum sTREM2 levels and the risk of developing all-cause dementia, AD, and VaD in the general elderly Japanese population. ANN NEUROL 2019;85:47-58.