A chickpea genetic variation map based on the sequencing of 3,366 genomes.

Zero hunger and good health could be realized by 2030 through effective conservation, characterization and utilization of germplasm resources1. So far, few chickpea (Cicer arietinum) germplasm accessions have been characterized at the genome sequence level2. Here we present a detailed map of variation in 3,171 cultivated and 195 wild accessions to provide publicly available resources for chickpea genomics research and breeding. We constructed a chickpea pan-genome to describe genomic diversity across cultivated chickpea and its wild progenitor accessions. A divergence tree using genes present in around 80% of individuals in one species allowed us to estimate the divergence of Cicer over the last 21 million years. Our analysis found chromosomal segments and genes that show signatures of selection during domestication, migration and improvement. The chromosomal locations of deleterious mutations responsible for limited genetic diversity and decreased fitness were identified in elite germplasm. We identified superior haplotypes for improvement-related traits in landraces that can be introgressed into elite breeding lines through haplotype-based breeding, and found targets for purging deleterious alleles through genomics-assisted breeding and/or gene editing. Finally, we propose three crop breeding strategies based on genomic prediction to enhance crop productivity for 16 traits while avoiding the erosion of genetic diversity through optimal contribution selection (OCS)-based pre-breeding. The predicted performance for 100-seed weight, an important yield-related trait, increased by up to 23% and 12% with OCS- and haplotype-based genomic approaches, respectively.

GIS-based G × E modeling of maize hybrids through enviromic markers engineering.

Through enviromics, precision breeding leverages innovative geotechnologies to customize crop varieties to specific environments, potentially improving both crop yield and genetic selection gains. In Brazil's four southernmost states, data from 183 distinct geographic field trials (also accounting for 2017-2021) covered information on 164 genotypes: 79 phenotyped maize hybrid genotypes for grain yield and their 85 nonphenotyped parents. Additionally, 1342 envirotypic covariates from weather, soil, sensor-based, and satellite sources were collected to engineer 10 K synthetic enviromic markers via machine learning. Soil, radiation light, and surface temperature variations remarkably affect differential genotype yield, hinting at ecophysiological adjustments including evapotranspiration and photosynthesis. The enviromic ensemble-based random regression model showcases superior predictive performance and efficiency compared to the baseline and kernel models, matching the best genotypes to specific geographic coordinates. Clustering analysis has identified regions that minimize genotype-environment (G × E) interactions. These findings underscore the potential of enviromics in crafting specific parental combinations to breed new, higher-yielding hybrid crops. The adequate use of envirotypic information can enhance the precision and efficiency of maize breeding by providing important inputs about the environmental factors that affect the average crop performance. Generating enviromic markers associated with grain yield can enable a better selection of hybrids for specific environments.

Phenomic data-driven biological prediction of maize through field-based high-throughput phenotyping integration with genomic data.

High-throughput phenotyping (HTP) has expanded the dimensionality of data in plant research; however, HTP has resulted in few novel biological discoveries to date. Field-based HTP (FHTP), using small unoccupied aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with imaging sensors, can be deployed routinely to monitor segregating plant population interactions with the environment under biologically meaningful conditions. Here, flowering dates and plant height, important phenological fitness traits, were collected on 520 segregating maize recombinant inbred lines (RILs) in both irrigated and drought stress trials in 2018. Using UAV phenomic, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genomic, as well as combined data, flowering times were predicted using several scenarios. Untested genotypes were predicted with 0.58, 0.59, and 0.41 prediction ability for anthesis, silking, and terminal plant height, respectively, using genomic data, but prediction ability increased to 0.77, 0.76, and 0.58 when phenomic and genomic data were used together. Using the phenomic data in a genome-wide association study, a heat-related candidate gene (GRMZM2G083810; hsp18f) was discovered using temporal reflectance phenotypes belonging to flowering times (both irrigated and drought) trials where heat stress also peaked. Thus, a relationship between plants and abiotic stresses belonging to a specific time of growth was revealed only through use of temporal phenomic data. Overall, this study showed that (i) it is possible to predict complex traits using high dimensional phenomic data between different environments, and (ii) temporal phenomic data can reveal a time-dependent association between genotypes and abiotic stresses, which can help understand mechanisms to develop resilient plants.

Simulations of rate of genetic gain in dry bean breeding programs.

KEY MESSAGE: A reference study for breeders aiming at maximizing genetic gain in common bean. Depending on trait heritability and genetic architecture, conventional approaches may provide an advantage over other frameworks. Dry beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are a nutrient dense legume that is consumed by developed and developing nations around the world. The progress to improve this crop has been quite steady. However, with the continued rise in global populations, there are demands to expedite genetic gains. Plant breeders have been at the forefront at increasing yields in the common bean. As breeding programs are both time-consuming and resource intensive, resource allocation must be carefully considered. To assist plant breeders, computer simulations can provide useful information that may then be applied to the real world. This study evaluated multiple breeding scenarios in the common bean and involved five selection strategies, three breeding frameworks, and four different parental population sizes. In addition, the breeding scenarios were implemented in three different traits: days to flowering, white mold tolerance, and seed yield. Results from the study reflect the complexity of breeding programs, with the optimal breeding scenario varying based on trait being selected. Relative genetic gains per cycle of up to 8.69% for seed yield could be obtained under the use of the optimal breeding scenario. Principal component analyses revealed similarity between strategies, where single seed descent and the modified pedigree method would often aggregate. As well, clusters in the direction of the Hamming distance eigenvector are a good indicator of poor performance in a strategy.

Climate and genetic data enhancement using deep learning analytics to improve maize yield predictability.

Despite efforts to collect genomics and phenomics ('omics') and environmental data, spatiotemporal availability and access to digital resources still limit our ability to predict plants' response to changes in climate. Our goal is to quantify the improvement in the predictability of maize yields by enhancing climate data. Large-scale experiments such as the Genomes to Fields (G2F) are an opportunity to provide access to 'omics' and climate data. Here, the objectives are to: (i) improve the G2F 'omics' and environmental database by reducing the gaps of climate data using deep neural networks; (ii) estimate the contribution of climate and genetic database enhancement to the predictability of maize yields via environmental covariance structures in genotype by environment (G×E) modeling; and (iii) quantify the predictability of yields resulting from the enhancement of climate data, the implementation of the G×E model, and the application of three trial selection schemes (i.e. randomization, ranking, and precipitation gradient). The results show a 12.1% increase in predictability due to climate and 'omics' database enhancement. The consequent enhancement of covariance structures evidenced in all train-test schemes indicated an increase in maize yield predictability. The largest improvement is observed in the 'random-based' approach, which adds environmental variability to the model.

Genome-based prediction of agronomic traits in spring wheat under conventional and organic management systems.

KEY MESSAGE: Using phenotype data of three spring wheat populations evaluated at 6-15 environments under two management systems, we found moderate to very high prediction accuracies across seven traits. The phenotype data collected under an organic management system effectively predicted the performance of lines in the conventional management and vice versa. There is growing interest in developing wheat cultivars specifically for organic agriculture, but we are not aware of the effect of organic management on the predictive ability of genomic selection (GS). Here, we evaluated within populations prediction accuracies of four GS models, four combinations of training and testing sets, three reaction norm models, and three random cross-validations (CV) schemes in three populations phenotyped under organic and conventional management systems. Our study was based on a total of 578 recombinant inbred lines and varieties from three spring wheat populations, which were evaluated for seven traits at 3-9 conventionally and 3-6 organically managed field environments and genotyped either with the wheat 90 K SNP array or DArTseq. We predicted the management systems (CV0M) or environments (CV0), a subset of lines that have been evaluated in either management (CV2M) or some environments (CV2), and the performance of newly developed lines in either management (CV1M) or environments (CV1). The average prediction accuracies of the model that incorporated genotype × environment interactions with CV0 and CV2 schemes varied from 0.69 to 0.97. In the CV1 and CV1M schemes, prediction accuracies ranged from - 0.12 to 0.77 depending on the reaction norm models, the traits, and populations. In most cases, grain protein showed the highest prediction accuracies. The phenotype data collected under the organic management effectively predicted the performance of lines under conventional management and vice versa. This is the first comprehensive GS study that investigated the effect of the organic management system in wheat.

Genome-based trait prediction in multi- environment breeding trials in groundnut.

KEY MESSAGE: Comparative assessment identified naïve interaction model, and naïve and informed interaction GS models suitable for achieving higher prediction accuracy in groundnut keeping in mind the high genotype × environment interaction for complex traits. Genomic selection (GS) can be an efficient and cost-effective breeding approach which captures both small- and large-effect genetic factors and therefore promises to achieve higher genetic gains for complex traits such as yield and oil content in groundnut. A training population was constituted with 340 elite lines followed by genotyping with 58 K 'Axiom_Arachis' SNP array and phenotyping for key agronomic traits at three locations in India. Four GS models were tested using three different random cross-validation schemes (CV0, CV1 and CV2). These models are: (1) model 1 (M1 = E + L) which includes the main effects of environment (E) and line (L); (2) model 2 (M2 = E + L + G) which includes the main effects of markers (G) in addition to E and L; (3) model 3 (M3 = E + L + G + GE), a naïve interaction model; and (4) model 4 (E + L + G + LE + GE), a naïve and informed interaction model. Prediction accuracy estimated for four models indicated clear advantage of the inclusion of marker information which was reflected in better prediction accuracy achieved with models M2, M3 and M4 as compared to M1 model. High prediction accuracies (> 0.600) were observed for days to 50% flowering, days to maturity, hundred seed weight, oleic acid, rust@90 days, rust@105 days and late leaf spot@90 days, while medium prediction accuracies (0.400-0.600) were obtained for pods/plant, shelling  %, and total yield/plant. Assessment of comparative prediction accuracy for different GS models to perform selection for untested genotypes, and unobserved and unevaluated environments provided greater insights on potential application of GS breeding in groundnut.

Interaction between FTO rs9939609 and the Native American-origin ABCA1 rs9282541 affects BMI in the admixed Mexican population.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to explore whether interactions between FTO rs9939609 and ABCA1 rs9282541 affect BMI and waist circumference (WC), and could explain previously reported population differences in FTO-obesity and FTO-BMI associations in the Mexican and European populations. METHODS: A total of 3938 adults and 636 school-aged children from Central Mexico were genotyped for both polymorphisms. Subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue biopsies from 22 class III obesity patients were analyzed for FTO and ABCA1 mRNA expression. Generalized linear models were used to test for associations and gene-gene interactions affecting BMI, WC and FTO expression. RESULTS: FTO and ABCA1 risk alleles were not individually associated with higher BMI or WC. However, in the absence of the ABCA1 risk allele, the FTO risk variant was significantly associated with higher BMI (P = 0.043) and marginally associated with higher WC (P = 0.067), as reported in Europeans. The gene-gene interaction affecting BMI and WC was statistically significant only in adults. FTO mRNA expression in subcutaneous abdominal adipose tissue according to ABCA1 genotype was consistent with these findings. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report showing evidence of FTO and ABCA1 gene variant interactions affecting BMI, which may explain previously reported population differences. Further studies are needed to confirm this interaction.

Genotyping by sequencing for genomic prediction in a soybean breeding population.

BACKGROUND: Advances in genotyping technology, such as genotyping by sequencing (GBS), are making genomic prediction more attractive to reduce breeding cycle times and costs associated with phenotyping. Genomic prediction and selection has been studied in several crop species, but no reports exist in soybean. The objectives of this study were (i) evaluate prospects for genomic selection using GBS in a typical soybean breeding program and (ii) evaluate the effect of GBS marker selection and imputation on genomic prediction accuracy. To achieve these objectives, a set of soybean lines sampled from the University of Nebraska Soybean Breeding Program were genotyped using GBS and evaluated for yield and other agronomic traits at multiple Nebraska locations. RESULTS: Genotyping by sequencing scored 16,502 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with minor-allele frequency (MAF) > 0.05 and percentage of missing values ≤ 5% on 301 elite soybean breeding lines. When SNPs with up to 80% missing values were included, 52,349 SNPs were scored. Prediction accuracy for grain yield, assessed using cross validation, was estimated to be 0.64, indicating good potential for using genomic selection for grain yield in soybean. Filtering SNPs based on missing data percentage had little to no effect on prediction accuracy, especially when random forest imputation was used to impute missing values. The highest accuracies were observed when random forest imputation was used on all SNPs, but differences were not significant. A standard additive G-BLUP model was robust; modeling additive-by-additive epistasis did not provide any improvement in prediction accuracy. The effect of training population size on accuracy began to plateau around 100, but accuracy steadily climbed until the largest possible size was used in this analysis. Including only SNPs with MAF > 0.30 provided higher accuracies when training populations were smaller. CONCLUSIONS: Using GBS for genomic prediction in soybean holds good potential to expedite genetic gain. Our results suggest that standard additive G-BLUP models can be used on unfiltered, imputed GBS data without loss in accuracy.

A reaction norm model for genomic selection using high-dimensional genomic and environmental data.

New methods that incorporate the main and interaction effects of high-dimensional markers and of high-dimensional environmental covariates gave increased prediction accuracy of grain yield in wheat across and within environments. In most agricultural crops the effects of genes on traits are modulated by environmental conditions, leading to genetic by environmental interaction (G × E). Modern genotyping technologies allow characterizing genomes in great detail and modern information systems can generate large volumes of environmental data. In principle, G × E can be accounted for using interactions between markers and environmental covariates (ECs). However, when genotypic and environmental information is high dimensional, modeling all possible interactions explicitly becomes infeasible. In this article we show how to model interactions between high-dimensional sets of markers and ECs using covariance functions. The model presented here consists of (random) reaction norm where the genetic and environmental gradients are described as linear functions of markers and of ECs, respectively. We assessed the proposed method using data from Arvalis, consisting of 139 wheat lines genotyped with 2,395 SNPs and evaluated for grain yield over 8 years and various locations within northern France. A total of 68 ECs, defined based on five phases of the phenology of the crop, were used in the analysis. Interaction terms accounted for a sizable proportion (16 %) of the within-environment yield variance, and the prediction accuracy of models including interaction terms was substantially higher (17-34 %) than that of models based on main effects only. Breeding for target environmental conditions has become a central priority of most breeding programs. Methods, like the one presented here, that can capitalize upon the wealth of genomic and environmental information available, will become increasingly important.

Introducing CHiDO-A No Code Genomic Prediction software implementation for the characterization and integration of driven omics.

Climate change represents a significant challenge to global food security by altering environmental conditions critical to crop growth. Plant breeders can play a key role in mitigating these challenges by developing more resilient crop varieties; however, these efforts require significant investments in resources and time. In response, it is imperative to use current technologies that assimilate large biological and environmental datasets into predictive models to accelerate the research, development, and release of new improved varieties that can be more resilient to the increasingly variable climatic conditions. Leveraging large and diverse datasets can improve the characterization of phenotypic responses due to environmental stimuli and genomic pulses. A better characterization of these signals holds the potential to enhance our ability to predict trait performance under changes in weather and/or soil conditions with high precision. This paper introduces characterization and integration of driven omics (CHiDO), an easy-to-use, no-code platform designed to integrate diverse omics datasets and effectively model their interactions. With its flexibility to integrate and process datasets, CHiDO's intuitive interface allows users to explore historical data, formulate hypotheses, and optimize data collection strategies for future scenarios. The platform's mission emphasizes global accessibility, democratizing statistical solutions for situations where professional ability in data processing and data analysis is not available.

Utilizing genomic prediction to boost hybrid performance in a sweet corn breeding program.

Sweet corn breeding programs, like field corn, focus on the development of elite inbred lines to produce commercial hybrids. For this reason, genomic selection models can help the in silico prediction of hybrid crosses from the elite lines, which is hypothesized to improve the test cross scheme, leading to higher genetic gain in a breeding program. This study aimed to explore the potential of implementing genomic selection in a sweet corn breeding program through hybrid prediction in a within-site across-year and across-site framework. A total of 506 hybrids were evaluated in six environments (California, Florida, and Wisconsin, in the years 2020 and 2021). A total of 20 traits from three different groups were measured (plant-, ear-, and flavor-related traits) across the six environments. Eight statistical models were considered for prediction, as the combination of two genomic prediction models (GBLUP and RKHS) with two different kernels (additive and additive + dominance), and in a single- and multi-trait framework. Also, three different cross-validation schemes were tested (CV1, CV0, and CV00). The different models were then compared based on the correlation between the estimated breeding values/total genetic values and phenotypic measurements. Overall, heritabilities and correlations varied among the traits. The models implemented showed good accuracies for trait prediction. The GBLUP implementation outperformed RKHS in all cross-validation schemes and models. Models with additive plus dominance kernels presented a slight improvement over the models with only additive kernels for some of the models examined. In addition, models for within-site across-year and across-site performed better in the CV0 than the CV00 scheme, on average. Hence, GBLUP should be considered as a standard model for sweet corn hybrid prediction. In addition, we found that the implementation of genomic prediction in a sweet corn breeding program presented reliable results, which can improve the testcross stage by identifying the top candidates that will reach advanced field-testing stages.

Near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy phenomic prediction can perform similarly to genomic prediction of maize agronomic traits across environments.

For nearly two decades, genomic prediction and selection have supported efforts to increase genetic gains in plant and animal improvement programs. However, novel phenomic strategies for predicting complex traits in maize have recently proven beneficial when integrated into across-environment sparse genomic prediction models. One phenomic data modality is whole grain near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), which records reflectance values of biological samples (e.g., maize kernels) based on chemical composition. Predictions of hybrid maize grain yield (GY) and 500-kernel weight (KW) across 2 years (2011-2012) and two management conditions (water-stressed and well-watered) were conducted using combinations of reflectance data obtained from high-throughput, F2 whole-kernel scans and genomic data obtained from genotyping-by-sequencing within four different cross-validation (CV) schemes (CV2, CV1, CV0, and CV00). When predicting the performance of untested genotypes in characterized (CV1) environments, genomic data were better than phenomic data for GY (0.689 ± 0.024-genomic vs. 0.612 ± 0.045-phenomic), but phenomic data were better than genomic data for KW (0.535 ± 0.034-genomic vs. 0.617 ± 0.145-phenomic). Multi-kernel models (combinations of phenomic and genomic relationship matrices) did not surpass single-kernel models for GY prediction in CV1 or CV00 (prediction of untested genotypes in uncharacterized environments); however, these models did outperform the single-kernel models for prediction of KW in these same CVs. Lasso regression applied to the NIRS data set selected a subset of 216 NIRS bands that achieved comparable prediction abilities to the full phenomic data set of 3112 bands predicting GY and KW under CV1 and CV00.

Multiparametric Cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon Ait.) Fruit Textural Trait Development for Harvest and Postharvest Evaluation in Representative Cultivars.

Fruit texture is a priority trait that guarantees the long-term economic sustainability of the cranberry industry through value-added products such as sweetened dried cranberries (SDCs). To develop a standard methodology to measure texture, we conducted a comparative analysis of 22 textural traits using five different methods under both harvest and postharvest conditions in 10 representative cranberry cultivars. A set of textural traits from the 10%-strain compression and puncture methods were identified that differentiate between cultivars primarily based on hardness/stiffness and elasticity properties. The complementary use of both methodologies allowed for a detailed evaluation by capturing the effect of key texture-determining factors such as structure, flesh, and skin. Furthermore, the high effectiveness of this approach in different conditions and its ability to capture high phenotypic variation in cultivars highlights its great potential for applicability in various areas of the value chain and research. Therefore, this study provides an informed reference for unifying future efforts to enhance cranberry fruit texture and quality.

Enhancing genomic prediction with Stacking Ensemble Learning in Arabica Coffee.

Coffee Breeding programs have traditionally relied on observing plant characteristics over years, a slow and costly process. Genomic selection (GS) offers a DNA-based alternative for faster selection of superior cultivars. Stacking Ensemble Learning (SEL) combines multiple models for potentially even more accurate selection. This study explores SEL potential in coffee breeding, aiming to improve prediction accuracy for important traits [yield (YL), total number of the fruits (NF), leaf miner infestation (LM), and cercosporiosis incidence (Cer)] in Coffea Arabica. We analyzed data from 195 individuals genotyped for 21,211 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. To comprehensively assess model performance, we employed a cross-validation (CV) scheme. Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Quantile Random Forest (QRF), and Random Forest (RF) served as base learners. For the meta-learner within the SEL framework, various options were explored, including Ridge Regression, RF, GBLUP, and Single Average. The SEL method was able to predict the predictive ability (PA) of important traits in Coffea Arabica. SEL presented higher PA compared with those obtained for all base learner methods. The gains in PA in relation to GBLUP were 87.44% (the ratio between the PA obtained from best Stacking model and the GBLUP), 37.83%, 199.82%, and 14.59% for YL, NF, LM and Cer, respectively. Overall, SEL presents a promising approach for GS. By combining predictions from multiple models, SEL can potentially enhance the PA of GS for complex traits.

Sparse testing designs for optimizing predictive ability in sugarcane populations.

Sugarcane is a crucial crop for sugar and bioenergy production. Saccharose content and total weight are the two main key commercial traits that compose sugarcane's yield. These traits are under complex genetic control and their response patterns are influenced by the genotype-by-environment (G×E) interaction. An efficient breeding of sugarcane demands an accurate assessment of the genotype stability through multi-environment trials (METs), where genotypes are tested/evaluated across different environments. However, phenotyping all genotype-in-environment combinations is often impractical due to cost and limited availability of propagation-materials. This study introduces the sparse testing designs as a viable alternative, leveraging genomic information to predict unobserved combinations through genomic prediction models. This approach was applied to a dataset comprising 186 genotypes across six environments (6×186=1,116 phenotypes). Our study employed three predictive models, including environment, genotype, and genomic markers as main effects, as well as the G×E to predict saccharose accumulation (SA) and tons of cane per hectare (TCH). Calibration sets sizes varying between 72 (6.5%) to 186 (16.7%) of the total number of phenotypes were composed to predict the remaining 930 (83.3%). Additionally, we explored the optimal number of common genotypes across environments for G×E pattern prediction. Results demonstrate that maximum accuracy for SA ( ρ = 0.611 ) and for TCH ( ρ=0.341 ) was achieved using in training sets few (3) to no common (0) genotype across environments maximizing the number of different genotypes that were tested only once. Significantly, we show that reducing phenotypic records for model calibration has minimal impact on predictive ability, with sets of 12 non-overlapped genotypes per environment (72=12×6) being the most convenient cost-benefit combination.

Genome-wide scanning to identify and validate single nucleotide polymorphism markers associated with drought tolerance in spring wheat seedlings.

Unlike other growth stages of wheat, very few studies on drought tolerance have been done at the seedling stage, and this is due to the complexity and sensitivity of this stage to drought stress resulting from climate change. As a result, the drought tolerance of wheat seedlings is poorly understood and very few genes associated with drought tolerance at this stage were identified. To address this challenge, a set of 172 spring wheat genotypes representing 20 different countries was evaluated under drought stress at the seedling stage. Drought stress was applied on all tested genotypes by water withholding for 13 days. Two types of traits, namely morphological and physiological traits were scored on the leaves of all tested genotypes. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) is one of the effective genetic analysis methods that was used to identify target single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers and candidate genes for later use in marker-assisted selection. The tested plant materials were genotyped using 25k Infinium iSelect array (25K) (herein after it will be identified as 25K) (for 172 genotypes) and genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) (for 103 genotypes), respectively. The results of genotyping revealed 21,093 25K and 11,362 GBS-SNPs, which were used to perform GWAS analysis for all scored traits. The results of GWAS revealed that 131 and 55 significant SNPs were controlling morphological and physiological traits, respectively. Moreover, a total of eight and seven SNP markers were found to be associated with more than one morphological and physiological trait under drought stress, respectively. Remarkably, 10 significant SNPs found in this study were previously reported for their association with drought tolerance in wheat. Out of the 10 validated SNP markers, four SNPs were associated with drought at the seedling stage, while the remaining six SNPs were associated with drought stress at the reproductive stage. Moreover, the results of gene enrichment revealed 18 and six pathways as highly significant biological and molecular pathways, respectively. The selection based on drought-tolerant alleles revealed 15 genotypes with the highest number of different drought-tolerant alleles. These genotypes can be used as candidate parents in future breeding programs to produce highly drought-tolerant genotypes with high genetic diversity. Our findings in this study provide novel markers and useful information on the genetic basis of drought tolerance at early growth stages.

Simulations of multiple breeding strategy scenarios in common bean for assessing genomic selection accuracy and model updating.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction model across different traits, parent population sizes, and breeding strategies when estimating breeding values in common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris). Genomic selection was implemented to make selections within a breeding cycle and compared across five different breeding strategies (single seed descent, mass selection, pedigree method, modified pedigree method, and bulk breeding) following 10 breeding cycles. The model was trained on a simulated population of recombinant inbreds genotyped for 1010 single nucleotide polymorphism markers including 38 known quantitative trait loci identified in the literature. These QTL included 11 for seed yield, eight for white mold disease incidence, and 19 for days to flowering. Simulation results revealed that realized accuracies fluctuate depending on the factors investigated: trait genetic architecture, breeding strategy, and the number of initial parents used to begin the first breeding cycle. Trait architecture and breeding strategy appeared to have a larger impact on accuracy than the initial number of parents. Generally, maximum accuracies (in terms of the correlation between true and estimated breeding value) were consistently achieved under a mass selection strategy, pedigree method, and single seed descent method depending on the simulation parameters being tested. This study also investigated model updating, which involves retraining the prediction model with a new set of genotypes and phenotypes that have a closer relation to the population being tested. While it has been repeatedly shown that model updating generally improves prediction accuracy, it benefited some breeding strategies more than others. For low heritability traits (e.g., yield), conventional phenotype-based selection methods showed consistent rates of genetic gain, but genetic gain under genomic selection reached a plateau after fewer cycles. This plateauing is likely a cause of faster fixation of alleles and a diminishing of genetic variance when selections are made based on estimated breeding value as opposed to phenotype.

Comparing artificial-intelligence techniques with state-of-the-art parametric prediction models for predicting soybean traits.

Soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] is a significant source of protein and oil and is also widely used as animal feed. Thus, developing lines that are superior in terms of yield, protein, and oil content is important to feed the ever-growing population. As opposed to high-cost phenotyping, genotyping is both cost and time efficient for breeders because evaluating new lines in different environments (location-year combinations) can be costly. Several genomic prediction (GP) methods have been developed to use the marker and environment data effectively to predict the yield or other relevant phenotypic traits of crops. Our study compares a conventional GP method (genomic best linear unbiased predictor [GBLUP]), a kernel method (Gaussian kernel [GK]), an artificial-intelligence (AI) method (deep learning [DL]), and a hybrid method that corresponds to the emulation of a DL model using a kernel method (an arc-cosine kernel [AK]) in terms of their prediction accuracies for predicting grain yield, oil, and protein using data from the soybean nested association mapping experiment (1,379 genotypes tested in six environments, all genotypes in all environments). The relative performance of the four methods varied with the response variable and whether the model includes the genotype × environmental interaction (G×E) effects or not. The GBLUP consistently showed better performances, whereas GK and AK followed a similar pattern to GBLUP and DL performed slightly worse than the other three methods in most of the cases; however, this may also be attributed to suboptimal hyperparameters. The DL method performed particularly worse than the other three methods in presence of the G×E effects.