Do therapeutic exercises impact supraspinatus tendon thickness? Secondary analyses of the combined dataset from two randomized controlled trials in patients with rotator cuff-related shoulder pain.

BACKGROUND: The mechanistic response of rotator cuff tendons to exercises within the context of rotator cuff-related shoulder pain (RCRSP) remains a significant gap in current research. A greater understanding of this response can shed light on why individuals exhibit varying responses to exercise interventions. It can also provide information on the influence of certain types of exercise on tendons. The primary aim of this article is to explore if changes in supraspinatus tendon thickness (SSTT) ratio differ between exercise interventions (high load vs. low load). The secondary aims are to explore if changes in SSTT ratio differ between ultrasonographic tendinopathy subgroups (reactive vs. degenerative) and if there are associations between tendinopathy subgroups, changes in tendon thickness ratio, and clinical outcomes (disability). METHODS: This study comprises secondary analyses of the combined dataset from two randomized controlled trials that compared high and low-load exercises in patients with RCRSP. In those trials, different exercise interventions were compared: 1) progressive high-load strengthening exercises and 2) low-load strengthening with or without motor control exercises. In 1 trial, there was also a third group that was not allocated to exercises (education only). Ultrasound-assessed SSTT ratio, derived from comparing symptomatic and asymptomatic sides, served as the primary measure in categorizing participants into tendinopathy subgroups (reactive, normal and degenerative) at baseline. RESULTS: Data from 159 participants were analyzed. Two-way repeated measures ANOVAs revealed significant Group (P < .001) and Group × Time interaction (P < .001) effects for the SSTT ratio in different tendinopathy subgroups, but no Time effect (P = .63). Following the interventions, SSTT ratio increased in the "Degenerative" subgroup (0.14 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 0.09-0.19]), decreased in the "Reactive" subgroup (-0.11 [95% CI: -0.16 to -0.06]), and remained unchanged in the "Normal" subgroup (-0.01 [95% CI: -0.04 to 0.02]). There was no Time (P = .21), Group (P = .61), or Group × Time interaction (P = .66) effect for the SSTT ratio based on intervention allocation. Results of the linear regression did not highlight any significant association between the tendinopathy subgroup (P = .25) or change in SSTT ratio (P = .40) and change in disability score. CONCLUSION: Findings from this study suggest that, over time, SSTT in individuals with RCRSP tends to normalize, compared to the contralateral side, regardless of the exercise intervention. Different subgroups of symptomatic tendons behave differently, emphasizing the need to potentially consider tendinopathy subtypes in RCRSP research. Future adequately powered studies should investigate how those different tendinopathy subgroups may predict long-term clinical outcomes.

High revision rate of metal-backed glenoid component and impact on the overall revision rate of stemless total shoulder arthroplasty: a cohort study from the Danish Shoulder Arthroplasty Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There is controversy regarding the results of stemmed and stemless total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) used for osteoarthritis. Therefore, we aimed to compare revision rates of stemmed and stemless TSA and to examine the impact of metal-backed glenoid components. METHODS: We included all patients reported to the Danish Shoulder Arthroplasty Register from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2022 with an anatomical TSA used for osteoarthritis. Primary outcome was revision (removal or exchange of components) for any reason. RESULTS: 3,338 arthroplasties were included. The hazard ratio for revision of stemless TSA adjusted for age and sex was 1.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21-2.78) with stemmed TSA as reference. When excluding all arthroplasties with a metal-backed glenoid component, the adjusted hazard ratio for revision of stemless TSA was 1.37 (CI 0.85-2.20). For the Eclipse stemless TSA system, the adjusted hazard ratio for revision of a metal-backed glenoid component was 8.75 (CI 2.40-31.9) with stemless Eclipse with an all-polyethylene glenoid component as reference. CONCLUSION: We showed that the risk of revision of stemless TSAs was increased and that it was related to their combination with metal-backed glenoid components.

Previous rotator cuff repair increases the risk of revision surgery for periprosthetic joint infection after reverse shoulder arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have indicated an increased risk of periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) in patients treated with reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) compared with patients treated with anatomic total shoulder arthroplasty. The reason for this is unclear but may be related to a high prevalence of previous rotator cuff repair in patients who are treated with RSA. The purpose of this study was to determine previous non-arthroplasty surgery as a risk factor for revision owing to PJI after RSA for cuff tear arthropathy, massive irreparable rotator cuff tears, or osteoarthritis. METHODS: Data were retrieved from the Danish Shoulder Arthroplasty Registry and medical records. We included 2217 patients who underwent RSA for cuff tear arthropathy, massive irreparable rotator cuff tears, or osteoarthritis between 2006 and 2019. PJI was defined as ≥3 of 5 tissue samples positive for the same bacteria or as definite or probable PJI evaluated based on criteria from the International Consensus Meeting. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to illustrate the unadjusted 14-year cumulative rates of revision. A Cox regression model was used to report hazard for revision owing to PJI. Results were adjusted for previous non-arthroplasty surgery, sex, diagnosis, and age. RESULTS: Revision was performed in 88 shoulders (4.0%), of which 40 (1.8%) underwent revision owing to PJI. There were 272 patients (12.3%) who underwent previous rotator cuff repair, of whom 11 (4.0%) underwent revision owing to PJI. The 14-year cumulative rate of revision owing to PJI was 14.1% for patients with previous rotator cuff repair and 2.7% for patients without previous surgery. The adjusted hazard ratio for revision owing to PJI for patients with previous rotator cuff repair was 2.2 (95% confidence interval, 1.04-4.60) compared with patients without previous surgery. CONCLUSION: There is an increased risk of revision owing to PJI after RSA for patients with previous rotator cuff repair. We recommend that patients with previous rotator cuff repair be regarded as high-risk patients when considering RSA.

Mixed-Effects Modeling Framework for Amsterdam and Copenhagen for Outdoor NO2 Concentrations Using Measurements Sampled with Google Street View Cars.

High-resolution air quality (AQ) maps based on street-by-street measurements have become possible through large-scale mobile measurement campaigns. Such campaigns have produced data-only maps and have been used to produce empirical models [i.e., land use regression (LUR) models]. Assuming that all road segments are measured, we developed a mixed model framework that predicts concentrations by an LUR model, while allowing road segments to deviate from the LUR prediction based on between-segment variation as a random effect. We used Google Street View cars, equipped with high-quality AQ instruments, and measured the concentration of NO2 on every street in Amsterdam (n = 46.664) and Copenhagen (n = 28.499) on average seven times over the course of 9 and 16 months, respectively. We compared the data-only mapping, LUR, and mixed model estimates with measurements from passive samplers (n = 82) and predictions from dispersion models in the same time window as mobile monitoring. In Amsterdam, mixed model estimates correlated rs (Spearman correlation) = 0.85 with external measurements, whereas the data-only approach and LUR model estimates correlated rs = 0.74 and 0.75, respectively. Mixed model estimates also correlated higher rs = 0.65 with the deterministic model predictions compared to the data-only (rs = 0.50) and LUR model (rs = 0.61). In Copenhagen, mixed model estimates correlated rs = 0.51 with external model predictions compared to rs = 0.45 and rs = 0.50 for data-only and LUR model, respectively. Correlation increased for 97 locations (rs = 0.65) with more detailed traffic information. This means that the mixed model approach is able to combine the strength of data-only mapping (to show hyperlocal variation) and LUR models by shrinking uncertain concentrations toward the model output.

Long-term exposure to transportation noise and risk for atrial fibrillation: A Danish nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have linked transportation noise and cardiovascular diseases, however, atrial fibrillation (AF) has received limited attention. We aimed to investigate the association between transportation noise and AF risk. METHODS: Over the period 1990-2017 we estimated road and railway noise (Lden) at the most and least exposed façades for all residential addresses across Denmark. We estimated time-weighted mean noise exposure for 3.6 million individuals age ≥35 years. Of these, 269,756 incident cases of AF were identified with a mean follow-up of 13.0 years. Analyses were conducted using Cox proportional hazards models with adjustment for individual and area-level sociodemographic covariates and long-term residential air pollution. RESULTS: A 10 dB higher 10-year mean road traffic noise at the most and least exposed façades were associated with incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for AF of 1.006 (1.001-1.011) and 1.013 (1.007-1.019), respectively. After further adjustment for PM2.5, the IRRs (CIs) were 1.000 (0.995-1.005) and 1.007 (1.000-1.013), respectively. For railway noise, the IRRs per 10 dB increase in 10-year mean exposure were 1.017 (1.007-1.026) and 1.035 (1.021-1.050) for the most and least exposed façades, respectively, and were slightly attenuated when adjusted for PM2.5. Aircraft noise between 55 and 60 dB and ≥60 dB were associated with IRRs of 1.055 (0.996-1.116) and 1.036 (0.931-1.154), respectively, when compared to <45 dB. CONCLUSION: Transportation noise seems to be associated with a small increase in AF risk, especially for exposure at the least exposed façade.

ICD harm and benefit: risk scores applied to the Swedish ICD-treated LQTS population.

Objectives. The use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) in long QT syndrome (LQTS) patients is essential in high-risk patients. However, it is sometimes used in patients without high-risk profiles for whom the expected benefit may be lower than the risk of ICD harm. Here, we evaluated ICD benefit and harm by assessing risk according to risk scores and pre-ICD clinical characteristics. Design. We studied 109 Swedish LQTS patients drawn from the Swedish ICD and Pacemaker Registry with data collected from medical records. In addition to clinical characteristics, we used two risk scores to assess pre-ICD risk, and evaluated ICD benefit and harm. Results. Twenty percent of all patients received ≥1 appropriate shock with a first appropriate shock incidence rate of 4.3 per 100 person-years. A long QTc (≥550 ms) and double mutations were significantly associated with appropriate shock. Low risk scores among patients without pre-ICD aborted cardiac arrest were not significantly associated with low risk of first appropriate shock. The incidence rates of a first inappropriate shock and first complication were 3.0 and 7.6 per 100 person-years, respectively. Conclusion. Our findings on ICD harm emphasize the importance of careful individual pre-ICD consideration. When we applied two risk scores to patients without pre-ICD aborted cardiac arrest, we could not validate their ability to identify patients with low risk of appropriate shocks and patients who were assessed as having a low risk still received appropriate shocks. This further supports the complexity of risk stratification and the difficulty of using risk scores.

Diagnosis and treatment of the rare procedural complication of malpositioned pacing leads in the left heart: a single center experience.

Objectives. This study assessed the management approach and outcome of the pacemaker or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) leads malpositioned in the left heart. Malpositioned leads (MPLs) may have deleterious consequences, and appropriate management remains uncertain. Methods. The study population included all patients referred to a single institution for MPL in the left side of the heart after pacemaker or ICD implantation during the period from 2015 to 2021. The approach and outcome of lead management were retrospectively assessed. Results. During the study period, 6887 patients underwent device implantation. MPL was diagnosed in five patients (0.07%). In four cases, the pacing lead was placed in a coronary sinus (CS) branch, while the pacing lead was inside the left ventricle (LV) in one case. Symptoms suggestive of lead malposition were reported by 2 patients (40%). One of the patients presented with recurrent TIAs. Another presented with inappropriate ICD shocks. In one asymptomatic case, an ICD lead changed position from the right ventricle to the CS, suggesting idiopathic lead migration. In 4/5 patients, the leads were removed or repositioned by percutaneous approach, with no major periprocedural complications. Conclusions. In this series of MPL in the left heart, two patients presented with thromboembolic events or inappropriate ICD shocks. These serious complications highlight the critical need for early correct diagnosis and proper management of MPL.

Alcohol consumption, cardiac biomarkers, and risk of atrial fibrillation and adverse outcomes.

AIMS: There is inconsistent evidence on the relation of alcohol intake with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), in particular at lower doses. We assessed the association between alcohol consumption, biomarkers, and incident AF across the spectrum of alcohol intake in European cohorts. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a community-based pooled cohort, we followed 107 845 individuals for the association between alcohol consumption, including types of alcohol and drinking patterns, and incident AF. We collected information on classical cardiovascular risk factors and incident heart failure (HF) and measured the biomarkers N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin I. The median age of individuals was 47.8 years, 48.3% were men. The median alcohol consumption was 3 g/day. N = 5854 individuals developed AF (median follow-up time: 13.9 years). In a sex- and cohort-stratified Cox regression analysis alcohol consumption was non-linearly and positively associated with incident AF. The hazard ratio for one drink (12 g) per day was 1.16, 95% CI 1.11-1.22, P < 0.001. Associations were similar across types of alcohol. In contrast, alcohol consumption at lower doses was associated with reduced risk of incident HF. The association between alcohol consumption and incident AF was neither fully explained by cardiac biomarker concentrations nor by the occurrence of HF. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to other cardiovascular diseases such as HF, even modest habitual alcohol intake of 1.2 drinks/day was associated with an increased risk of AF, which needs to be considered in AF prevention.

Study protocol: Prosthesis versus Active (ProAct) exercise program in patients with glenohumeral osteoarthritis - a multicenter, randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) and shoulder exercises are both effective treatments for reducing pain and improving function in glenohumeral osteoarthritis. However, the effectiveness of TSA has not been compared with non-surgical treatment in a randomized controlled trial. We will examine whether TSA followed bystandard postsurgical rehabilitation is superior to a 12-week exercise program in patients with primary glenohumeral OA who are eligible for unilateral TSA. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this Nordic multicenter randomized controlled clinical trial, patients with glenohumeral osteoarthritis eligible for TSA will be allocated to either TSA followed by usual care or exercise only. The exercise intervention comprises 12 weeks of exercise with one weekly physiotherapist-supervised session. Based on the sample size calculation, the trial needs to include 102 patients. Duration and outcome:  Recruitment was initiated in April 2021 and is expected to be completed by the end of March 2024. Primary outcome is patient-reported quality of life, measured as total WOOS score 12 months after initiation of treatment. The key secondary outcomes include patient-reported pain intensity at rest and during activity; Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand score (DASH); the use of analgesics during the previous week; and adverse events. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial is approved by the Central Denmark Region Committee on Biomedical Research Ethics (Journal No 1-10-72-29-21) and by the Danish Data Protection Agency (Journal No 1-16-02-199-21). ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04845074.

Long-term air pollution and road traffic noise exposure and COPD: the Danish Nurse Cohort.

BACKGROUND: While air pollution has been linked to the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), evidence on the role of environmental noise is just emerging. We examined the associations of long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise with COPD incidence. METHODS: We defined COPD incidence for 24 538 female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort (age >44 years) as the first hospital contact between baseline (1993 or 1999) and 2015. We estimated residential annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm (PM2.5) since 1990 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) since 1970 using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model/Urban Background Model/Air Geographic Information System modelling system, and road traffic noise (Lden) since 1970 using the Nord2000 model. Time-varying Cox regression models were applied to assess the associations of air pollution and road traffic noise with COPD incidence. RESULTS: 977 nurses developed COPD during a mean of 18.6 years' follow-up. We observed associations with COPD for all three exposures with HRs and 95% CIs of 1.19 (1.01-1.41) per 6.26 µg·m-3 for PM2.5, 1.13 (1.05-1.20) per 8.19 µg·m-3 for NO2 and 1.15 (1.06-1.25) per 10 dB for Lden. Associations with NO2 and Lden attenuated slightly after mutual adjustment, but were robust to adjustment for PM2.5. Associations with PM2.5 were attenuated to null after adjustment for either NO2 or Lden. No potential interaction effect was observed between air pollutants and noise. CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to air pollution, especially traffic-related NO2, and to road traffic noise were independently associated with COPD.

Transportation noise and risk for colorectal cancer: a nationwide study covering Denmark.

PURPOSE: Few studies have suggested that traffic noise is a risk factor for cancer, but evidence is inconclusive. We aimed to investigate whether road traffic and railway noise are associated with risk of colorectal cancer. METHODS: We obtained address history for all 3.5 million people above 40 years of age and living in Denmark for the period 1990-2017 and estimated road traffic and railway noise (Lden) at the most and least exposed facades of all addresses as well as air pollution (PM2.5). During follow-up (2000-2017), 35,881 persons developed colon cancer and 19,755 developed rectal cancer. Information on individual and area-level demographic and socioeconomic variables was collected from Danish registries. We analyzed data using Cox proportional hazards models, including traffic noise as time-varying 10-year average exposure. RESULTS: Exposure to road traffic noise at the most exposed façade was associated with an incidence rate ratio and 95% confidence interval for proximal colon cancer of 1.018 (0.999-1.038) per 10 dB higher noise. We observed no associations for road traffic noise at the least exposed façade or for railway noise in relation to proximal colon cancer. Also, we found no association between road traffic or railway noise and risk for distal colon cancer or rectal cancer. CONCLUSION: Traffic noise did not seem associated with higher risk for colorectal cancer, although the suggestion of a slightly higher risk of proximal colon cancer following exposure to road traffic noise warrants further research.

The results of health-related quality of life assessment depend on the prevailing rhythm at the assessment: Experience from the CAPTAF trial (Catheter Ablation Compared with Pharmacological Therapy for Atrial Fibrillation).

AIMS: To assess whether the prevailing rhythm at the time of replying to symptom and health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) questionnaires impacts the findings. METHOD: A total of 150 patients from the randomized Catheter Ablation Compared with Pharmacological Therapy for Atrial Fibrillation-trial, comparing atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation versus drugs, were included. The effect of the prevailing rhythm on the outcome results of the HR-QoL 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey, the symptom severity questionnaire (SSQ), and the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) score for classification of AF-related symptoms was assessed. RESULTS: AF as the prevailing rhythm was independently associated with a significantly lower Vitality score; 18.4 points lower (95% confidence interval -32.7 to -4.1, p = .01) compared with sinus rhythm when adjusted for AF burden, median duration of episode, number of episodes, beta-blocker use, type of AF, and sex. The presence of AF did not affect the General Health score compared with sinus rhythm, nor did it influence symptoms assessed by the SSQ or EHRA score. CONCLUSION: The observation that the presence of AF versus sinus rhythm when conducting HR-QoL tests had a negative impact on its outcome, leaving symptom-related questionnaires unaffected, implies that the prevailing rhythm should be taken into account when results of HR-QoL questionnaires are interpreted.

Road and railway noise and risk for breast cancer: A nationwide study covering Denmark.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have suggested that transportation noise may increase risk for breast cancer, but existing literature is scarce and inconclusive. We aimed to investigate associations between road traffic and railway noise and risk for breast cancer across the entire Danish female population. METHODS: For all 2.8 million residential addresses across Denmark, we modelled road and railway noise at the most and least exposed façades for the period 1990-2017. We calculated 10-year time-weighted mean noise exposure for 1.8 million women aged >35 years, of whom 66,006 developed breast cancer during follow-up from 2000 to 2017. We analysed data using Cox proportional hazards models with noise exposure included as 10-year running means and adjusted for a number of individual and area-level socioeconomic co-variates and air pollution with fine particles estimated for all addresses. RESULTS: For exposures at the least exposed façade, we found that a 10 dB increase in 10-year time-weighted noise was associated with incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for breast cancer of 1.032 (1.019-1.046) for road noise and 1.023 (0.993-1.053) for railway noise. For exposures at the most exposed façade, the IRRs (95% CIs) were 1.012 (1.002-1.022) for road noise and 1.020 (1.001-1.039) for railway noise. Associations were strongest among women with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Road traffic and railway noise were associated with higher risk for breast cancer, especially noise at the least exposed façade, which is a proxy for noise exposure during sleep.

Long-term exposure to road traffic noise and stroke incidence: a Danish Nurse Cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Road traffic noise has been linked to increased risk of ischemic heart disease, yet evidence on stroke shows mixed results. We examine the association between long-term exposure to road traffic noise and incidence of stroke, overall and by subtype (ischemic or hemorrhagic), after adjustment for air pollution. METHODS: Twenty-five thousand six hundred and sixty female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort recruited in 1993 or 1999 were followed for stroke-related first-ever hospital contact until December 31st, 2014. Full residential address histories since 1970 were obtained and annual means of road traffic noise (Lden [dB]) and air pollutants (particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm and < 10 µm [PM2.5 and PM10], nitrogen dioxide [NO2], nitrogen oxides [NOx]) were determined using validated models. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for the associations of one-, three-, and 23-year running means of Lden preceding stroke (all, ischemic or hemorrhagic), adjusting for stroke risk factors and air pollutants. The World Health Organization and the Danish government's maximum exposure recommendations of 53 and 58 dB, respectively, were explored as potential Lden thresholds. RESULTS: Of 25,660 nurses, 1237 developed their first stroke (1089 ischemic, 148 hemorrhagic) during 16 years mean follow-up. For associations between a 1-year mean of Lden and overall stroke incidence, the estimated HR (95% CI) in the fully adjusted model was 1.06 (0.98-1.14) per 10 dB, which attenuated to 1.01 (0.93-1.09) and 1.00 (0.91-1.09) in models further adjusted for PM2.5 or NO2, respectively. Associations for other exposure periods or separately for ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke were similar. There was no evidence of a threshold association between Lden and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to road traffic noise was suggestively positively associated with the risk of overall stroke, although not after adjusting for air pollution.

Minimal Pain Decrease Between 2 and 4 Weeks After Nonoperative Management of a Displaced Midshaft Clavicle Fracture Is Associated with a High Risk of Symptomatic Nonunion.

BACKGROUND: The main long-term benefit of operative treatment of displaced midshaft clavicular fractures is the reduction in nonunion risk, and as this risk is generally low, the ideal approach would be to operate only patients at high risk of nonunion. However, most current surgical decision models use baseline variables to estimate the nonunion risk, and the value of these models remains unclear. Pain in the early weeks after fracture could be potentially be an indirect measurement of fracture healing, and so it is a potential proxy variable that could lead to simpler prediction models. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: (1) Is pain a possible proxy variable for the development of symptomatic nonunion after nonoperative treatment of midshaft clavicular fractures? (2) How reliable is the model we created that uses pain as a proxy variable for symptomatic nonunion of nonoperatively treated clavicle fractures? METHODS: In this secondary retrospective analysis of an earlier randomized trial, we studied prospectively collected data from 64 nonoperatively treated patients aged 18 years to 60 years. In the original randomized trial, we compared operative and nonoperative treatment of displaced midshaft clavicular fractures. In all, 150 patients were included in the study, of whom 71 received nonoperative treatment. Patients were predominantly males (75%, 48 of 64) with a mean age of 38 ± SD 12 years; most fractures were comminuted and shortened more than 1 cm. All 71 patients who were nonoperatively treated were potentially eligible for this secondary analysis; of those, 11% (8 of 71) were lost to follow-up, leaving 63 patients from the nonoperative treatment arm and one patient from the operative treatment arm (who declined surgical treatment after randomization but was followed in this group according to the intention-to-treat principle) for analysis here. Nonunion was defined as lack of callus formation, persistent fracture lines and/or sclerotic edges of the bones at the fracture site on plain radiographs at 6 months follow-up. Nonunions were regarded as symptomatic if pain, tenderness, and local crepitation were present at the fracture site. Seventeen percent (11 of 64) of patients had symptomatic nonunions. After investigating differences in early pain scores between the union and nonunion groups, we defined the VASratio as the VAS pain score at 4 weeks divided by the VAS pain score at 2 weeks. Week 2 VAS pain score was chosen as baseline after visual inspection of a linear mixed model that showed increased divergence in pain scores between union and nonunion group at 2 weeks after fracture. Week 4 was chosen as the cutoff because we wanted a reasonable time frame for the detection of pain reduction and did not want to delay surgical treatment more than necessary. Odds ratios for various risk factors were calculated using logistic regression analyses. We used a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis to identify cutoff values for the VASratio. RESULTS: An increase in absolute pain score at 4 weeks after fracture (odds ratio 1.8 per 1 point increase [95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.4]) was associated with an increased risk of nonunion 6 months after fracture. Likewise, we found that an increasing VASratio (OR 1.02 per 0.01 point increase [95% CI 1.002 to 1.06]) was also associated with nonunion. Receiver operating curve analysis found that the best cutoff value of VASratio was about 0.6. Patients with a VASratio above 0.6 had a relative risk of developing nonunion of 18 (95% CI 2 to 130) compared with patients with a VASratio below 0.6. Sparse-data bias could be present, as is evident from this wide confidence interval, though even at the low end of the confidence interval, the relative risk was 2, which may still improve surgical decision-making. CONCLUSION: A pain score that exhibits no or minimal change from 2 to 4 weeks after nonoperative treatment of a displaced midshaft fracture of the clavicle is associated with a high risk that symptomatic nonunion will develop. Patients with no or minimal change in pain in the early weeks may be candidates for surgery to reduce the risk of symptomatic nonunion. As this was a retrospective study, with a risk of sparse-data bias, the predictive value of the VASratio needs to be further investigated in large prospective studies before clinical use. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, diagnostic study.

The role of weather conditions in COVID-19 transmission: A study of a global panel of 1236 regions.

It is believed that weather conditions such as temperature and humidity have effects on COVID-19 transmission. However, these effects are not clear due to the limited observations and difficulties in separating impact of social distancing. COVID-19 data and social-economic features of 1236 regions in the world (1112 regions at the provincial level and 124 countries with the small land area) were collected. Large-scale satellite data was combined with these data with a regression analysis model to explore the effects of temperature and relative humidity on COVID-19 spreading, as well as the possible transmission risk by seasonal cycles. The result shows that temperature and relative humidity are negatively correlated with COVID-19 transmission throughout the world. Government intervention (e.g. lockdown policies) and lower population movement contributed to decrease the new daily case ratio. Weather conditions are not the decisive factor in COVID-19 transmission, in that government intervention as well as public awareness, could contribute to the mitigation of the spreading of the virus. So, it deserves a dynamic government policy to mitigate COVID-19 transmission in winter.

High-resolution assessment of road traffic noise exposure in Denmark.

Recent studies show associations between transportation noise and various diseases. However, selection bias remains an inherent limitation in many cohort studies. In this study, we aimed to model road traffic noise exposure across the entire Danish population and investigate its distribution in relation to area-level socioeconomic indicators and green space. Based on the Nordic prediction method, we estimated road traffic noise for all Danish residential addresses, in total 2,761,739 addresses, for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 at the most and least exposed façades. Area-level sociodemographic variables encompassing education, income, and unemployment were collected and residential green within a 150 m radius buffer at the address level was estimated using high-resolution national land use classification data. Median levels of noise at both the most and least exposed facades across Denmark increased slightly from 1995 to 2015. Correlations between most and least exposed façades varied based on population density and building type, with the highest correlations between the most and least exposed façades found for semidetached homes and lowest for multistory buildings. Increasing median noise levels were observed across increasing levels of higher education, lower income, and higher unemployment. A decreasing trend in median noise levels with increasing levels of green space was observed. In conclusion, we showed that it is feasible to estimate nationwide, address-specific exposure over a long time-period. Furthermore, the low correlations found between most and least exposed façade for multistory buildings, which characterize metropolitan centers, suggests that the most exposed façade estimation used in most previous studies and predicts exposure at the silent façade relatively poorly.

Long-term residential road traffic noise and mortality in a Danish cohort.

Transportation noise is a growing public health concern worldwide and epidemiological evidence has linked road traffic noise with mortality. However, incongruent effect estimates have been reported between incidence and mortality studies. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate whether long-term exposure to residential road traffic noise at the most and least exposed façades was associated with all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, respiratory, or cancer mortality in a Danish cohort study. In a cohort of 52,758 individuals from Copenhagen and Aarhus, we estimated road traffic noise at the most and least exposed façades, as well as ambient air pollution, at all present and historical residential addresses from 1987 to 2016. Using the Danish cause of death register we identified cause-specific mortality. Analyses were conducted using Cox proportional hazards models. Ten-year time-weighted mean road traffic noise exposure at the most exposed façade was associated with an 8% higher risk for all-cause mortality per interquartile range (IQR; 10.4 dB) higher exposure level (95% CI: 1.05-1.11). Higher risks were also observed for CVD (HR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06-1.19) and stroke (HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.99-1.25) mortality. Road traffic noise at the least exposed façade (per IQR; 8.4 dB) was associated with CVD (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.03-1.15), IHD (HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01-1.21) and stroke (HR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.95-1.19) mortality. Results were robust to adjustment for PM2.5 and NO2. In conclusion, this study adds to the body of evidence linking exposure to road traffic noise with higher risk of mortality.

Can Machine-learning Algorithms Predict Early Revision TKA in the Danish Knee Arthroplasty Registry?

BACKGROUND: Revision TKA is a serious adverse event with substantial consequences for the patient. As the demand for TKA rises, reducing the risk of revision TKA is becoming increasingly important. Predictive tools based on machine-learning algorithms could reform clinical practice. Few attempts have been made to combine machine-learning algorithms with data from nationwide arthroplasty registries and, to the authors' knowledge, none have tried to predict the likelihood of early revision TKA. QUESTION/PURPOSES: We used the Danish Knee Arthroplasty Registry to build models to predict the likelihood of revision TKA within 2 years of primary TKA and asked: (1) Which preoperative factors were the most important features behind these models' predictions of revision? (2) Can a clinically meaningful model be built on the preoperative factors included in the Danish Knee Arthroplasty Registry? METHODS: The Danish Knee Arthroplasty Registry collects patients' characteristics and surgical information from all arthroplasties conducted in Denmark and thus provides a large nationwide cohort of patients undergoing TKA. As training dataset, we retrieved all preoperative variables of 25,104 primary TKAs from 2012 to 2015. The same variables were retrieved from 6170 TKAs conducted in 2016, which were used as a hold-out year for temporal external validation. If a patient received bilateral TKA, only the first knee to receive surgery was included. All patients were followed for 2 years, with removal, exchange, or addition of an implant defined as TKA revision. We created four different predictive models to find the best performing model, including a regression-based model using logistic regression with least shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), two classification tree models (random forest and gradient boosting model) and a supervised neural network. For comparison, we created a noninformative model predicting that all observations were unrevised. The four machine learning models were trained using 10-fold cross-validation on the training dataset after adjusting for the low percentage of revisions by over-sampling revised observations and undersampling unrevised observations. In the validation dataset, the models' performance was evaluated and compared by density plot, calibration plot, accuracy, Brier score, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC). The density plot depicts the distribution of probabilities and the calibration plot graphically depicts whether the predicted probability resembled the observed probability. The accuracy indicates how often the models' predictions were correct and the Brier score is the mean distance from the predicted probability to the observed outcome. The ROC curve is a graphical output of the models' sensitivity and specificity from which the AUC is calculated. The AUC can be interpreted as the likelihood that a model correctly classified an observation and thus, a priori, an AUC of 0.7 was chosen as threshold for a clinically meaningful model. RESULTS: Based the model training, age, postfracture osteoarthritis and weight were deemed as important preoperative factors within the machine learning models. During validation, the models' performance was not different from the noninformative models, and with AUCs ranging from 0.57 to 0.60, no models reached the predetermined AUC threshold for a clinical useful discriminative capacity. CONCLUSION: Although several well-known presurgical risk factors for revision were coupled with four different machine learning methods, we could not develop a clinically useful model capable of predicting early TKA revisions in the Danish Knee Arthroplasty Registry based on preoperative data. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The inability to predict early TKA revision highlights that predicting revision based on preoperative information alone is difficult. Future models might benefit from including medical comorbidities and an anonymous surgeon identifier variable or may attempt to build a postoperative predictive model including intra- and postoperative factors as these may have a stronger association with early TKA revisions.

Operative treatment of displaced midshaft clavicular fractures is not cost-effective.

BACKGROUND: Conventional treatment of displaced midshaft clavicular fractures is nonoperative. Recent studies have implied that operative treatment might result in a faster return to work, resulting in a decreased productivity loss for society. The cost utility of plate fixation vs. nonoperative treatment of displaced midshaft clavicular fractures has not previously been investigated using a societal perspective. METHODS: Decision analytical modeling of incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) was performed. Data on utility, hospitalization, and productivity costs were retrieved from a Danish randomized controlled trial. Supplementary data were taken from randomized controlled trials identified in the literature. A 1-year time horizon was applied, and all prices were reported with respect to a 2016 level. RESULTS: Operative treatment was associated with a larger QALY gain in patients and a higher cost compared with nonoperative treatment. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated in Danish currency (Danish krone [kr]) at kr1,360,000 (€182,306) per QALY from a health-sector perspective and kr1,388,738 (€186,158) per QALY from a societal perspective. Considering a subgroup analysis of patients with a high-load shoulder profession, operative treatment was dominated by nonoperative treatment from a health-sector perspective. Considering a societal perspective, the ICER was estimated at -kr889,091 (-€119,181) per reduction of 1 QALY. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that the results were subject to uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Operative treatment is not cost-effective when considering a threshold of €34,000/QALY. However, for a subgroup of patients with a high-load shoulder profession, operative treatment might be cost-effective compared with nonoperative treatment.