The AI-driven Drug Design (AIDD) platform: an interactive multi-parameter optimization system integrating molecular evolution with physiologically based pharmacokinetic simulations.

Computer-aided drug design has advanced rapidly in recent years, and multiple instances of in silico designed molecules advancing to the clinic have demonstrated the contribution of this field to medicine. Properly designed and implemented platforms can drastically reduce drug development timelines and costs. While such efforts were initially focused primarily on target affinity/activity, it is now appreciated that other parameters are equally important in the successful development of a drug and its progression to the clinic, including pharmacokinetic properties as well as absorption, distribution, metabolic, excretion and toxicological (ADMET) properties. In the last decade, several programs have been developed that incorporate these properties into the drug design and optimization process and to varying degrees, allowing for multi-parameter optimization. Here, we introduce the Artificial Intelligence-driven Drug Design (AIDD) platform, which automates the drug design process by integrating high-throughput physiologically-based pharmacokinetic simulations (powered by GastroPlus) and ADMET predictions (powered by ADMET Predictor) with an advanced evolutionary algorithm that is quite different than current generative models. AIDD uses these and other estimates in iteratively performing multi-objective optimizations to produce novel molecules that are active and lead-like. Here we describe the AIDD workflow and details of the methodologies involved therein. We use a dataset of triazolopyrimidine inhibitors of the dihydroorotate dehydrogenase from Plasmodium falciparum to illustrate how AIDD generates novel sets of molecules.

Primary and secondary care service use and costs associated with frailty in an ageing population: longitudinal analysis of an English primary care cohort of adults aged 50 and over, 2006-2017.

BACKGROUND: Frailty becomes more prevalent and healthcare needs increase with age. Information on the impact of frailty on population level use of health services and associated costs is needed to plan for ageing populations. AIM: To describe primary and secondary care service use and associated costs by electronic Frailty Index (eFI) category. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort using electronic health records. Participants aged ≥50 registered in primary care practices contributing to the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, 2006-2017. METHODS: Primary and secondary care use (totals and means) were stratified by eFI category and age group. Standardised 2017 costs were used to calculate primary, secondary and overall costs. Generalised linear models explored associations between frailty, sociodemographic characteristics. Adjusted mean costs and cost ratios were produced. RESULTS: Individual mean annual use of primary and secondary care services increased with increasing frailty severity. Overall cohort care costs for were highest in mild frailty in all 12 years, followed by moderate and severe, although the proportion of the population with severe frailty can be expected to increase over time. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors, compared to the fit category, individual annual costs doubled in mild frailty, tripled in moderate and quadrupled in severe. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing levels of frailty are associated with an additional burden of individual service use. However, individuals with mild and moderate frailty contribute to higher overall costs. Earlier intervention may have the most potential to reduce service use and costs at population level.

Benchmarking a universal smoking machine adaptor for tobacco product testing.

SIGNIFICANCE: Characterisation of tobacco product emissions is an important step in assessing their impact on public health. Accurate and repeatable emissions data require that a leak-tight seal be made between the smoking or vaping machine and the mouth-end of the tobacco product being tested. This requirement is challenging because of the variety of tobacco product mouth-end geometries being puffed on by consumers today. We developed and tested a prototype universal smoking machine adaptor (USMA) that interfaces with existing machines and reliably seals with a variety of tobacco product masses and geometries. METHODS: Emissions were machine-generated using the USMA and other available adaptors for a variety of electronic cigarettes (n=7 brands), cigars (n=4), cigarillos (n=2), a heated tobacco product, and a reference cigarette (1R6F), and mainstream total particulate matter (TPM) and nicotine were quantified. Data variability (precision, n≥10 replicates/brand) for all products and error (accuracy) from certified values (1R6F) were compared across adaptors. RESULTS: TPM and nicotine emissions generated using the USMA were accurate, precise and agreed with certified values for the 1R6F reference cigarette. Replicate data indicate that USMA repeatability across all tobacco products tested generally meets or exceeds that from the comparison adaptors and extant data. CONCLUSION: The USMA seals well with a variety of combustible tobacco products, e-cigarettes with differing geometries and plastic-tipped cigarillos. Variability for all measures was similar or smaller for the USMA compared with other adaptors.

Universal smoking machine adaptor for tobacco product testing.

SIGNIFICANCE: Historically, tobacco product emissions testing using smoking machines has largely focused on combustible products, such as cigarettes and cigars. However, the popularity of newer products, such as electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes), has complicated emissions testing because the products' mouth-end geometries do not readily seal with existing smoking and vaping machines. The demand for emissions data on popularly used products has led to inefficient and non-standardised solutions, such as laboratories making their geometry-specific custom adaptors and/or employing flexible tubing, for each unique mouth-end geometry tested. A user-friendly, validated, universal smoking machine adaptor (USMA) is needed for testing the variety of tobacco products reflecting consumer use, including e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, cigarettes, plastic-tipped cigarillos and cigars. METHODS: A prototype USMA that is compatible with existing smoking/vaping machines was designed and fabricated. The quality of the seal between the USMA and different tobacco products, including e-cigarettes, cigars and cigarillos, was evaluated by examining the leak rate. RESULTS: Unlike commercial, product-specific adaptors, the USMA seals well with a wide range of tobacco product mouth-end geometries and masses. This includes e-cigarettes with non-cylindrical mouth ends and cigarillos with cuboid-like plastic tips. USMA leak rates were lower than or equivalent to commercial, product-specific adaptors. CONCLUSION: This report provides initial evidence that the USMA seals reliably with a variety of tobacco product mouth-end geometries and can be used with existing linear smoking/vaping machines to potentially improve the precision, repeatability and reproducibility of machine smoke yield data. Accurate and reproducible emissions testing is critical for regulating tobacco products.

AL amyloidosis manifesting as a vertebral amyloidoma secondary to an unrecognized plasmacytoma expressing cyclin D1 case report.

INTRODUCTION: Immunoglobin-related (AL) amyloidosis is the production of amyloidogenic immunoglobulin light chains from clonal plasma cells or, rarely, B-cell lymphomas with plasmacytic differentiation. Amyloid deposition causes progressive end organ destruction with profound morbidity. PRESENTATION OF CASE: We present a rare case of a lambda light chain AL amyloidoma localized to a thoracic vertebra of an 87-year-old woman who had a remote history of an unspecified non-Hodgkin B-cell lymphoma (NHL). Our patient presented with upper extremity neuropathy and was found by MRI to have a malignant-appearing lesion throughout the T1 vertebra. Initial biopsy showed amyloid deposition and staging evaluation found localized disease. Prior to planned surgery and radiation the following year, she had worsening neuropathy including multiple falls. Repeat MRI confirmed lesion progression with concern for cord compression. Urgent surgical resection was performed. Histology showed numerous plasma cells with abundant amyloid deposition that was found by amyloid typing to be lambda light chain. An incidental B-cell rich lymphoid aggregate was also seen in a bone marrow fragment that required additional immunohistochemical evaluation, showing the aggregate to be benign while revealing the plasma cells to be positive for cyclin D1. She received localized radiation and has been asymptomatic. DISCUSSION: Amyloidosis and plasma cell neoplasms require appropriate staging evaluation. The cyclin D1-positive plasma cells raises the possibility of the t(11;14)/IGH::CCND1 translocation that portends better prognosis and therapeutic response with venetoclax. CONCLUSION: Amyloidomas are uncommon and may present in nearly any site, requiring a high index of clinical suspicion for proper diagnosis.

Genotypic and phenotypic susceptibility of emerging avian influenza A viruses to neuraminidase and cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitors.

Avian influenza outbreaks, including ones caused by highly pathogenic A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b viruses, have devastated animal populations and remain a threat to humans. Risk elements assessed for emerging influenza viruses include their susceptibility to approved antivirals. Here, we screened >20,000 neuraminidase (NA) or polymerase acidic (PA) protein sequences of potentially pandemic A(H5Nx), A(H7Nx), and A(H9N2) viruses that circulated globally in 2010-2023. The frequencies of NA or PA substitutions associated with reduced inhibition (RI) or highly reduced inhibition (HRI) by NA inhibitors (NAIs) (oseltamivir, zanamivir) or a cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor (baloxavir) were low: 0.60% (137/22,713) and 0.62% (126/20,347), respectively. All tested subtypes were susceptible to NAIs and baloxavir at sub-nanomolar concentrations. A(H9N2) viruses were the most susceptible to oseltamivir, with IC50s 3- to 4-fold lower than for other subtypes (median IC50: 0.18 nM; n = 22). NA-I222M conferred RI of A(H5N1) viruses by oseltamivir (with a 26-fold IC50 increase), but NA-S246N did not reduce inhibition. PA-E23G, PA-K34R, PA-I38M/T, and the previously unreported PA-A36T caused RI by baloxavir in all subtypes tested. Avian A(H9N2) viruses endemic in Egyptian poultry predominantly acquired PA-I38V, which causes only a <3-fold decrease in the baloxavir EC50 and fails to meet the RI criteria. PA-E199A/D in A(H7Nx) and A(H9N2) viruses caused a 2- to 4-fold decrease in EC50 (close to the borderline for RI) and should be closely monitored. Our data indicate antiviral susceptibility is high among avian influenza A viruses with pandemic potential and present novel markers of resistance to existing antiviral interventions.

Inpatient midwifery staffing levels and postpartum readmissions: a retrospective multicentre longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Preventing readmission to hospital after giving birth is a key priority, as rates have been rising along with associated costs. There are many contributing factors to readmission, and some are thought to be preventable. Nurse and midwife understaffing has been linked to deficits in care quality. This study explores the relationship between staffing levels and readmission rates in maternity settings. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study using routinely collected individual patient data in three maternity services in England from 2015 to 2020. Data on admissions, discharges and case-mix were extracted from hospital administration systems. Staffing and workload were calculated in Hours Per Patient day per shift in the first two 12-hour shifts of the index (birth) admission. Postpartum readmissions and staffing exposures for all birthing admissions were entered into a hierarchical multivariable logistic regression model to estimate the odds of readmission when staffing was below the mean level for the maternity service. RESULTS: 64 250 maternal admissions resulted in birth and 2903 mothers were readmitted within 30 days of discharge (4.5%). Absolute levels of staffing ranged between 2.3 and 4.1 individuals per midwife in the three services. Below average midwifery staffing was associated with higher rates of postpartum readmissions within 7 days of discharge (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.108, 95% CI 1.003 to 1.223). The effect was smaller and not statistically significant for readmissions within 30 days of discharge (aOR 1.080, 95% CI 0.994 to 1.174). Below average maternity assistant staffing was associated with lower rates of postpartum readmissions (7 days, aOR 0.957, 95% CI 0.867 to 1.057; 30 days aOR 0.965, 95% CI 0.887 to 1.049, both not statistically significant). CONCLUSION: We found evidence that lower than expected midwifery staffing levels is associated with more postpartum readmissions. The nature of the relationship requires further investigation including examining potential mediating factors and reasons for readmission in maternity populations.

Nursing Team Composition and Mortality Following Acute Hospital Admission.

Importance: Many studies show the adverse consequences of insufficient nurse staffing in hospitals, but safe and effective staffing is unlikely to be just about staff numbers. There are considerable areas of uncertainty, including whether temporary staff can safely make up shortfalls in permanent staff and whether using experienced staff can mitigate the effect of staff shortages. Objective: To explore the association of the composition of the nursing team with the risk of patient deaths. Design, Setting, and Participants: This patient-level longitudinal observational study was conducted in 185 wards in 4 acute hospital trusts in England between April 2015 and March 2020. Eligible participants were patients with an overnight stay and nursing staff on adult inpatient wards. Data analysis was conducted from month April 2022 to June 2023. Exposure: Naturally occurring variation during the first 5 days of hospital admission in exposure to days of low staffing from registered nurses (RNs) and nursing support (NS) staff, the proportion of RNs, proportion of senior staff, and proportion of hospital-employed (bank) and agency temporary staff. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was death within 30 days of admission. Mixed-effect Cox proportional hazards survival models were used. Results: Data from 626 313 admissions (319 518 aged ≥65 years [51.0%]; 348 464 female [55.6%]) were included. Risk of death was increased when patients were exposed to low staffing from RNs (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.08; 95% CI 1.07-1.09) and NS staff (aHR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.08). A 10% increase in the proportion of temporary RNs was associated with a 2.3% increase in the risk of death, with no difference between agency (aHR, 1.023; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04) and bank staff (aHR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04). A 10% increase in the proportion of agency NS was associated with a 4% increase in risk of death (aHR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.06). Evidence on the seniority of staff was mixed. Model coefficients were used to estimate the association of using temporary staff to avoid low staffing and found that risk was reduced but remained elevated compared with baseline. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that having senior nurses in the nursing team did not mitigate the adverse outcomes associated with low nurse staffing. These findings indicate that while the benefits of avoiding low staffing may be greater than the harms associated with using temporary staff, particularly for RNs, risk remains elevated if temporary staff are used to fill staffing shortages, which challenges the assumption that temporary staff are a cost-effective long-term solution to maintaining patient safety.

Identifying Actionable Alterations in KRAS Wild-Type Pancreatic Cancer.

The 5-year relative survival rate for pancreatic cancer is currently the lowest among all cancer types with a dismal 13%. A Kirsten rat sarcoma virus (KRAS) gene mutation is present in approximately 90% of patients with pancreatic cancer; however, KRAS-specific drugs are not yet widely used in clinical practice for pancreatic cancer, specifically the KRASG12D variant. Advances in genomic testing revealed an opportunity to detect genetic alterations in a subset of patients with no KRAS mutation termed KRAS wild-type. Patients with KRAS wild-type tumors have a propensity to express driver alterations, hence paving the way for utilizing a targeted therapy approach either via clinical trials or standard-of-care drugs. These alterations include fusions, amplifications, translocations, rearrangements and microsatellite instability-high tumors and can be as high as 11% in some studies. Here, we discuss some of the most notable alterations in KRAS wild-type and highlight promising clinical trials.

Safer and more efficient vital signs monitoring protocols to identify the deteriorating patients in the general hospital ward: an observational study.

Background: The frequency at which patients should have their vital signs (e.g. blood pressure, pulse, oxygen saturation) measured on hospital wards is currently unknown. Current National Health Service monitoring protocols are based on expert opinion but supported by little empirical evidence. The challenge is finding the balance between insufficient monitoring (risking missing early signs of deterioration and delays in treatment) and over-observation of stable patients (wasting resources needed in other aspects of care). Objective: Provide an evidence-based approach to creating monitoring protocols based on a patient's risk of deterioration and link these to nursing workload and economic impact. Design: Our study consisted of two parts: (1) an observational study of nursing staff to ascertain the time to perform vital sign observations; and (2) a retrospective study of historic data on patient admissions exploring the relationships between National Early Warning Score and risk of outcome over time. These were underpinned by opinions and experiences from stakeholders. Setting and participants: Observational study: observed nursing staff on 16 randomly selected adult general wards at four acute National Health Service hospitals. Retrospective study: extracted, linked and analysed routinely collected data from two large National Health Service acute trusts; data from over 400,000 patient admissions and 9,000,000 vital sign observations. Results: Observational study found a variety of practices, with two hospitals having registered nurses take the majority of vital sign observations and two favouring healthcare assistants or student nurses. However, whoever took the observations spent roughly the same length of time. The average was 5:01 minutes per observation over a 'round', including time to locate and prepare the equipment and travel to the patient area. Retrospective study created survival models predicting the risk of outcomes over time since the patient was last observed. For low-risk patients, there was little difference in risk between 4 hours and 24 hours post observation. Conclusions: We explored several different scenarios with our stakeholders (clinicians and patients), based on how 'risk' could be managed in different ways. Vital sign observations are often done more frequently than necessary from a bald assessment of the patient's risk, and we show that a maximum threshold of risk could theoretically be achieved with less resource. Existing resources could therefore be redeployed within a changed protocol to achieve better outcomes for some patients without compromising the safety of the rest. Our work supports the approach of the current monitoring protocol, whereby patients' National Early Warning Score 2 guides observation frequency. Existing practice is to observe higher-risk patients more frequently and our findings have shown that this is objectively justified. It is worth noting that important nurse-patient interactions take place during vital sign monitoring and should not be eliminated under new monitoring processes. Our study contributes to the existing evidence on how vital sign observations should be scheduled. However, ultimately, it is for the relevant professionals to decide how our work should be used. Study registration: This study is registered as ISRCTN10863045. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 17/05/03) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 6. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Patient recovery in hospital is tracked by measuring heart rate, blood pressure and other 'vital signs' and converting them into a score. These are 'observed' regularly by nursing staff so that deterioration can be spotted early. However, taking observations can disturb patients, and taking them too often causes extra work for staff. More frequent monitoring is recommended for higher scores, but evidence is lacking. To work out how often patients should be monitored, we needed to know how likely it is for patients to become more unwell between observations. We analysed over 400,000 patient records from two hospitals to understand how scores change with time. We looked at three of the most serious risks for patients in hospital. These risks are dying, needing intensive care or having a cardiac arrest. We also looked at the risk that a patient's condition would deteriorate significantly before their measurements were taken again. We identified early signs of deterioration and how changes in vital signs affected the risk of a patient's condition becoming worse. From this we calculated a maximum risk of deterioration. We then calculated different monitoring schedules that keep individual patients below this risk level. Some of those would consume less staff time than current National Health Service guidelines suggest. We also watched staff record patients' vital signs. We learnt it takes about 5 minutes to take these measurements from each patient. This information helped us calculate how costs would change if patients' vital signs were taken more or less often. We found that patients with a low overall score could have their vital signs monitored less often without being in danger of serious harm. This frees up nursing time so that patients with a higher score can be monitored more often. Importantly, this can be achieved without employing more staff.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus in a common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) in Florida.

Since late 2021, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 (H5N1) lineage have caused widespread mortality in wild birds and poultry in the United States. Concomitant with the spread of HPAI viruses in birds are increasing numbers of mammalian infections, including wild and captive mesocarnivores and carnivores with central nervous system involvement. Here we report HPAI, A(H5N1) of clade 2.3.4.4b, in a common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) from Florida, United States. Pathological findings include neuronal necrosis and inflammation of the brain and meninges, and quantitative real time RT-PCR reveal the brain carried the highest viral load. Virus isolated from the brain contains a S246N neuraminidase substitution which leads to reduced inhibition by neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir. The increased prevalence of A(H5N1) viruses in atypical avian hosts and its cross-species transmission into mammalian species highlights the public health importance of continued disease surveillance and biosecurity protocols.

Multiple transatlantic incursions of highly pathogenic avian influenza clade 2.3.4.4b A(H5N5) virus into North America and spillover to mammals.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have spread at an unprecedented scale, leading to mass mortalities in birds and mammals. In 2023, a transatlantic incursion of HPAI A(H5N5) viruses into North America was detected, followed shortly thereafter by a mammalian detection. As these A(H5N5) viruses were similar to contemporary viruses described in Eurasia, the transatlantic spread of A(H5N5) viruses was most likely facilitated by pelagic seabirds. Some of the Canadian A(H5N5) viruses from birds and mammals possessed the PB2-E627K substitution known to facilitate adaptation to mammals. Ferrets inoculated with A(H5N5) viruses showed rapid, severe disease onset, with some evidence of direct contact transmission. However, these viruses have maintained receptor binding traits of avian influenza viruses and were susceptible to oseltamivir and zanamivir. Understanding the factors influencing the virulence and transmission of A(H5N5) in migratory birds and mammals is critical to minimize impacts on wildlife and public health.