Evolutionary dynamics of sex-biased gene expression in a young XY system: insights from the brown alga genus Fucus.

Sex-biased gene expression is considered to be an underlying cause of sexually dimorphic traits. Although the nature and degree of sex-biased expression have been well documented in several animal and plant systems, far less is known about the evolution of sex-biased genes in more distant eukaryotic groups. Here, we investigate sex-biased gene expression in two brown algal dioecious species, Fucus serratus and Fucus vesiculosus, where male heterogamety (XX/XY) has recently emerged. We find that in contrast to evolutionary distant plant and animal lineages, male-biased genes do not experience high turnover rates, but instead reveal remarkable conservation of bias and expression levels between the two species, suggesting their importance in sexual differentiation. Genes with consistent male bias were enriched in functions related to gamete production, along with sperm competition and include three flagellar proteins under positive selection. We present one of the first reports, outside of the animal kingdom, showing that male-biased genes display accelerated rates of coding sequence evolution compared with female-biased or unbiased genes. Our results imply that evolutionary forces affect male and female sex-biased genes differently on structural and regulatory levels, resulting in unique properties of differentially expressed transcripts during reproductive development in Fucus algae.

Genome-scale signatures of adaptive gene expression changes in an invasive seaweed Gracilaria vermiculophylla.

Invasive species can successfully and rapidly colonize new niches and expand ranges via founder effects and enhanced tolerance towards environmental stresses. However, the underpinning molecular mechanisms (i.e., gene expression changes) facilitating rapid adaptation to harsh environments are still poorly understood. The red seaweed Gracilaria vermiculophylla, which is native to the northwest Pacific but invaded North American and European coastal habitats over the last 100 years, provides an excellent model to examine whether enhanced tolerance at the level of gene expression contributed to its invasion success. We collected G. vermiculophylla from its native range in Japan and from two non-native regions along the Delmarva Peninsula (Eastern United States) and in Germany. Thalli were reared in a common garden for 4 months at which time we performed comparative transcriptome (mRNA) and microRNA (miRNA) sequencing. MRNA-expression profiling identified 59 genes that were differently expressed between native and non-native thalli. Of these genes, most were involved in metabolic pathways, including photosynthesis, abiotic stress, and biosynthesis of products and hormones in all four non-native sites. MiRNA-based target-gene correlation analysis in native/non-native pairs revealed that some target genes are positively or negatively regulated via epigenetic mechanisms. Importantly, these genes are mostly associated with metabolism and defence capability (e.g., metal transporter Nramp5, senescence-associated protein, cell wall-associated hydrolase, ycf68 protein and cytochrome P450-like TBP). Thus, our gene expression results indicate that resource reallocation to metabolic processes is most likely a predominant mechanism contributing to the range-wide persistence and adaptation of G. vermiculophylla in the invaded range. This study, therefore, provides molecular insight into the speed and nature of invasion-mediated rapid adaption.

The genome of the seagrass Zostera marina reveals angiosperm adaptation to the sea.

Seagrasses colonized the sea on at least three independent occasions to form the basis of one of the most productive and widespread coastal ecosystems on the planet. Here we report the genome of Zostera marina (L.), the first, to our knowledge, marine angiosperm to be fully sequenced. This reveals unique insights into the genomic losses and gains involved in achieving the structural and physiological adaptations required for its marine lifestyle, arguably the most severe habitat shift ever accomplished by flowering plants. Key angiosperm innovations that were lost include the entire repertoire of stomatal genes, genes involved in the synthesis of terpenoids and ethylene signalling, and genes for ultraviolet protection and phytochromes for far-red sensing. Seagrasses have also regained functions enabling them to adjust to full salinity. Their cell walls contain all of the polysaccharides typical of land plants, but also contain polyanionic, low-methylated pectins and sulfated galactans, a feature shared with the cell walls of all macroalgae and that is important for ion homoeostasis, nutrient uptake and O2/CO2 exchange through leaf epidermal cells. The Z. marina genome resource will markedly advance a wide range of functional ecological studies from adaptation of marine ecosystems under climate warming, to unravelling the mechanisms of osmoregulation under high salinities that may further inform our understanding of the evolution of salt tolerance in crop plants.

Intraspecific genetic variation matters when predicting seagrass distribution under climate change.

Seagrasses play a vital role in structuring coastal marine ecosystems, but their distributional range and genetic diversity have declined rapidly in recent decades. To improve conservation of seagrass species, it is important to predict how climate change may impact their ranges. Such predictions are typically made with correlative species distribution models (SDMs), which can estimate a species' potential distribution under present and future climatic scenarios given species' presence data and climatic predictor variables. However, these models are typically constructed with species-level data, and thus ignore intraspecific genetic variability, which can give rise to populations with adaptations to heterogeneous climatic conditions. Here, we explore the link between intraspecific adaptation and niche differentiation in Thalassia hemprichii, a seagrass broadly distributed in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean and a crucial provider of habitat for numerous marine species. By retrieving and re-analysing microsatellite data from previous studies, we delimited two distinct phylogeographical lineages within the nominal species and found an intermediate level of differentiation in their multidimensional environmental niches, suggesting the possibility for local adaptation. We then compared projections of the species' habitat suitability under climate change scenarios using species-level and lineage-level SDMs. In the Central Tropical Indo-Pacific region, models for both levels predicted considerable range contraction in the future, but the lineage-level models predicted more severe habitat loss. Importantly, the two modelling approaches predicted opposite patterns of habitat change in the Western Tropical Indo-Pacific region. Our results highlight the necessity of conserving distinct populations and genetic pools to avoid regional extinction due to climate change and have important implications for guiding future management of seagrasses.

Bright spots as climate-smart marine spatial planning tools for conservation and blue growth.

Marine spatial planning that addresses ocean climate-driven change ('climate-smart MSP') is a global aspiration to support economic growth, food security and ecosystem sustainability. Ocean climate change ('CC') modelling may become a key decision-support tool for MSP, but traditional modelling analysis and communication challenges prevent their broad uptake. We employed MSP-specific ocean climate modelling analyses to inform a real-life MSP process; addressing how nature conservation and fisheries could be adapted to CC. We found that the currently planned distribution of these activities may become unsustainable during the policy's implementation due to CC, leading to a shortfall in its sustainability and blue growth targets. Significant, climate-driven ecosystem-level shifts in ocean components underpinning designated sites and fishing activity were estimated, reflecting different magnitudes of shifts in benthic versus pelagic, and inshore versus offshore habitats. Supporting adaptation, we then identified: CC refugia (areas where the ecosystem remains within the boundaries of its present state); CC hotspots (where climate drives the ecosystem towards a new state, inconsistent with each sectors' present use distribution); and for the first time, identified bright spots (areas where oceanographic processes drive range expansion opportunities that may support sustainable growth in the medium term). We thus create the means to: identify where sector-relevant ecosystem change is attributable to CC; incorporate resilient delivery of conservation and sustainable ecosystem management aims into MSP; and to harness opportunities for blue growth where they exist. Capturing CC bright spots alongside refugia within protected areas may present important opportunities to meet sustainability targets while helping support the fishing sector in a changing climate. By capitalizing on the natural distribution of climate resilience within ocean ecosystems, such climate-adaptive spatial management strategies could be seen as nature-based solutions to limit the impact of CC on ocean ecosystems and dependent blue economy sectors, paving the way for climate-smart MSP.

Decadal stability in genetic variation and structure in the intertidal seaweed Fucus serratus (Heterokontophyta: Fucaceae).

BACKGROUND: The spatial distribution of genetic diversity and structure has important implications for conservation as it reveals a species' strong and weak points with regard to stability and evolutionary capacity. Temporal genetic stability is rarely tested in marine species other than commercially important fishes, but is crucial for the utility of temporal snapshots in conservation management. High and stable diversity can help to mitigate the predicted northward range shift of seaweeds under the impact of climate change. Given the key ecological role of fucoid seaweeds along rocky shores, the positive effect of genetic diversity may reach beyond the species level to stabilize the entire intertidal ecosystem along the temperate North Atlantic. In this study, we estimated the effective population size, as well as temporal changes in genetic structure and diversity of the seaweed F. serratus using 22 microsatellite markers. Samples were taken across latitudes and a range of temperature regimes at seven locations with decadal sampling (2000 and 2010). RESULTS: Across latitudes, genetic structure and diversity remained stable over 5-10 generations. Stable small-scale structure enhanced regional diversity throughout the species' range. In accordance with its biogeographic history, effective population size and diversity peaked in the species' mid-range in Brittany (France), and declined towards its leading and trailing edge to the north and south. At the species' southern edge, multi-locus-heterozygosity displayed a strong decline from 1999 to 2010. CONCLUSION: Temporally stable genetic structure over small spatial scales is a potential driver for local adaptation and species radiation in the genus Fucus. Survival and adaptation of the low-diversity leading edge of F. serratus may be enhanced by regional gene flow and 'surfing' of favorable mutations or impaired by the accumulation of deleterious mutations. Our results have clear implications for the conservation of F. serratus at its genetically unique southern edge in Northwest Iberia, where increasing temperatures are likely the major cause for the decline not only of F. serratus, but also other intertidal and subtidal macroalgae. We expect that F. serratus will disappear from Northwest Iberia by 2100 if genetic rescue is not induced by the influx of genetic variation from Brittany.

Genomic divergence between the migratory and stationary ecotypes of Atlantic cod.

Atlantic cod displays a range of phenotypic and genotypic variations, which includes the differentiation into coastal stationary and offshore migratory types of cod that co-occur in several parts of its distribution range and are often sympatric on the spawning grounds. Differentiation of these ecotypes may involve both historical separation and adaptation to ecologically distinct environments, the genetic basis of which is now beginning to be unravelled. Genomic analyses based on recent sequencing advances are able to document genomic divergence in more detail and may facilitate the exploration of causes and consequences of genome-wide patterns. We examined genomic divergence between the stationary and migratory types of cod in the Northeast Atlantic, using next-generation sequencing of pooled DNA from each of two population samples. Sequence data was mapped to the published cod genome sequence, arranged in more than 6000 scaffolds (611 Mb). We identified 25 divergent scaffolds (26 Mb) with a higher than average gene density, against a backdrop of overall moderate genomic differentiation. Previous findings of localized genomic divergence in three linkage groups were confirmed, including a large (15 Mb) genomic region, which seems to be uniquely involved in the divergence of migratory and stationary cod. The results of the pooled sequencing approach support and extend recent findings based on single-nucleotide polymorphism markers and suggest a high degree of reproductive isolation between stationary and migratory cod in the North-east Atlantic.

Differences by origin in methylome suggest eco-phenotypes in the kelp Saccharina latissima.

Most kelp species are of high ecological and economic importance worldwide, but are highly susceptible to rising ocean temperatures due to their sessile lifestyle. Due to interference with reproduction, development and growth, natural kelp forests have vanished in multiple regions after extreme summer heat waves. Furthermore, increasing temperatures are likely to decrease biomass production and, thus, reduce production security of farmed kelp. Epigenetic variation, and cytosine methylation as a heritable epigenetic trait, is a rapid means of acclimation and adaptation to environmental conditions, including temperature. While the first methylome of brown macroalgae has been recently described in the kelp Saccharina japonica, its functional relevance and contribution to environmental acclimation is currently unknown. The main objective of our study was to identify the importance of the methylome in the congener kelp species Saccharina latissima for temperature acclimation. Our study is the first to compare DNA methylation in kelp between wild populations of different latitudinal origin, and the first to investigate the effect of cultivation and rearing temperature on genome-wide cytosine methylation. Origin appears to determine many traits in kelp, but it is unknown to what extent the effects of thermal acclimation may be overruled by lab-related acclimation. Our results suggest that seaweed hatchery conditions have strong effects on the methylome and, thus, putatively on the epigenetically controlled characteristics of young kelp sporophytes. However, culture origin could best explain epigenetic differences in our samples suggesting that epigenetic mechanisms contribute to local adaptation of eco-phenotypes. Our study is a first step to understand whether DNA methylation marks (via their effect on gene regulation) may be used as biological regulators to enhance production security and kelp restoration success under rising temperatures, and highlights the importance to match hatchery conditions to origin.

Prediction of the dynamic distribution for Eucheuma denticulatum (Rhodophyta, Solieriaceae) under climate change in the Indo-Pacific Ocean.

Eucheuma is one of the most important commercial red seaweeds in Southeast Asia, and plays an important role in the global seaweed aquaculture. It is expected to exhibit great responses to ocean warming. Here, we used maximum entropy species distribution models (SDMs) to estimate the suitable habitat of Eucheuma denticulatum under present conditions, and to predict the future range dynamics under the four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The best marine environmental factors for E. denticulatum distribution modeling were distance to shore, sea surface temperature and currents velocity. Our results showed that E. denticulatum' distributions would contract in the Central Indo-Pacific Ocean, especially the regions of the Sunda Shelf, while expanding poleward along the south coast of Australia in 2100. Our study provided important knowledge for the prediction of the tropical seaweed distribution, conservation and sustainable developments of E. denticulatum in the future.

Adaptation of Temperate Seagrass to Arctic Light Relies on Seasonal Acclimatization of Carbon Capture and Metabolism.

Due to rising global surface temperatures, Arctic habitats are becoming thermally suitable for temperate species. Whether a temperate species can immigrate into an ice-free Arctic depends on its ability to tolerate extreme seasonal fluctuations in daylength. Thus, understanding adaptations to polar light conditions can improve the realism of models predicting poleward range expansions in response to climate change. Plant adaptations to polar light have rarely been studied and remain unknown in seagrasses. If these ecosystem engineers can migrate polewards, seagrasses will enrich biodiversity, and carbon capture potential in shallow coastal regions of the Arctic. Eelgrass (Zostera marina) is the most widely distributed seagrass in the northern hemisphere. As the only seagrass species growing as far north as 70°N, it is the most likely candidate to first immigrate into an ice-free Arctic. Here, we describe seasonal (and diurnal) changes in photosynthetic characteristics, and in genome-wide gene expression patterns under strong annual fluctuations of daylength. We compared PAM measurements and RNA-seq data between two populations at the longest and shortest day of the year: (1) a Mediterranean population exposed to moderate annual fluctuations of 10-14 h daylength and (2) an Arctic population exposed to high annual fluctuations of 0-24 h daylength. Most of the gene expression specificities of the Arctic population were found in functions of the organelles (chloroplast and mitochondrion). In winter, Arctic eelgrass conserves energy by repressing respiration and reducing photosynthetic energy fluxes. Although light-reactions, and genes involved in carbon capture and carbon storage were upregulated in summer, enzymes involved in CO2 fixation and chlorophyll-synthesis were upregulated in winter, suggesting that winter metabolism relies not only on stored energy resources but also on active use of dim light conditions. Eelgrass is unable to use excessive amounts of light during summer and demonstrates a significant reduction in photosynthetic performance under long daylengths, possibly to prevent photoinhibition constrains. Our study identified key mechanisms that allow eelgrass to survive under Arctic light conditions and paves the way for experimental research to predict whether and up to which latitude eelgrass can potentially migrate polewards in response to climate change.

Calculations of population differentiation based on GST and D: forget GST but not all of statistics!

G(ST)-values and its relatives (F(ST)) belong to the most used parameters to define genetic differences between populations. Originally, they were developed for allozymes with very low number of alleles. Using highly polymorphic microsatellite markers it was often puzzling that G(ST)-values were very low but statistically significant. In their papers, Jost (2008) and Hedrick (2005) explained that G(ST)-values do not show genetic differentiation, and Jost suggested calculating D-values instead. Theoretical mathematical considerations are often difficult to follow; therefore, we chose an applied approach comparing two artificial populations with different number of alleles at equal frequencies and known genetic divergence. Our results show that even for more than one allele per population G(ST)-values do not calculate population differentiation correctly; in contrast, D-values do reflect the genetic differentiation indicating that data based on G(ST)-values need to be re-evaluated. In our approach, statistical evaluations remained similar. We provide information about the impact of different sample sizes on D-values in relation to number of alleles and genetic divergence.

The Seagrass Methylome Is Associated With Variation in Photosynthetic Performance Among Clonal Shoots.

Evolutionary theory predicts that clonal organisms are more susceptible to extinction than sexually reproducing organisms, due to low genetic variation and slow rates of evolution. In agreement, conservation management considers genetic variation as the ultimate measure of a population's ability to survive over time. However, clonal plants are among the oldest living organisms on our planet. Here, we test the hypothesis that clonal seagrass meadows display epigenetic variation that complements genetic variation as a source of phenotypic variation. In a clonal meadow of the seagrass Zostera marina, we characterized DNA methylation among 42 shoots. We also sequenced the whole genome of 10 shoots to correlate methylation patterns with photosynthetic performance under exposure to and recovery from 27°C, while controlling for somatic mutations. Here, we show for the first time that clonal seagrass shoots display DNA methylation variation that is independent from underlying genetic variation, and associated with variation in photosynthetic performance under experimental conditions. It remains unknown to what degree this association could be influenced by epigenetic responses to transplantation-related stress, given that the methylomes showed a strong shift under acclimation to laboratory conditions. The lack of untreated control samples in the heat stress experiment did not allow us to distinguish methylome shifts induced by acclimation from such induced by heat stress. Notwithstanding, the co-variation in DNA methylation and photosynthetic performance may be linked via gene expression because methylation patterns varied in functionally relevant genes involved in photosynthesis, and in the repair and prevention of heat-induced protein damage. While genotypic diversity has been shown to enhance stress resilience in seagrass meadows, we suggest that epigenetic variation plays a similar role in meadows dominated by a single genotype. Consequently, conservation management of clonal plants should consider epigenetic variation as indicator of resilience and stability.

Phylogeographic diversification and postglacial range dynamics shed light on the conservation of the kelp Saccharina japonica.

Studies of postglacial range shifts could enhance our understanding of seaweed species' responses to climate change and hence facilitate the conservation of natural resources. However, the distribution dynamics and phylogeographic diversification of the commercially and ecologically important kelp Saccharina japonica in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) are still poorly surveyed. In this study, we analyzed the evolutionary history of S. japonica using two mitochondrial markers and 24 nuclear microsatellites. A STRUCTURE analysis revealed two partially isolated lineages: lineage H, which is scattered along the coast of Japan; and lineage P, which occurs along the west coast of the Japan Sea. Ecological niche modeling projections to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) revealed that the southern coasts of the Japan Sea and the Pacific side of the Oshima and Honshu Peninsulas provided the most suitable habitats for S. japonica, implying that these regions served as ancient refugia during the LGM. Ancient isolation in different refugia may explain the observed divergence between lineages P and H. An approximate Bayesian computation analysis indicated that the two lineages experienced post-LGM range expansion and that postglacial secondary contact occurred in Sakhalin. Model projections into the year 2,100 predicted that S. japonica will shift northwards and lose its genetic diversity center on the Oshima Peninsula in Hokkaido and Shimokita Peninsula in Honshu. The range shifts and evolutionary history of S. japonica improve our understanding of how climate change impacted the distribution range and diversity of this species and provide useful information for the conservation of natural resources under ongoing environmental change in the NWP.

Towards population genomics in non-model species with large genomes: a case study of the marine zooplankton Calanus finmarchicus.

Advances in next-generation sequencing technologies and the development of genome-reduced representation protocols have opened the way to genome-wide population studies in non-model species. However, species with large genomes remain challenging, hampering the development of genomic resources for a number of taxa including marine arthropods. Here, we developed a genome-reduced representation method for the ecologically important marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus (haploid genome size of 6.34 Gbp). We optimized a capture enrichment-based protocol based on 2656 single-copy genes, yielding a total of 154 087 high-quality SNPs in C. finmarchicus including 62 372 in common among the three locations tested. The set of capture probes was also successfully applied to the congeneric C. glacialis. Preliminary analyses of these markers revealed similar levels of genetic diversity between the two Calanus species, while populations of C. glacialis showed stronger genetic structure compared to C. finmarchicus. Using this powerful set of markers, we did not detect any evidence of hybridization between C. finmarchicus and C. glacialis. Finally, we propose a shortened version of our protocol, offering a promising solution for population genomics studies in non-model species with large genomes.

The fate of the Arctic seaweed Fucus distichus under climate change: an ecological niche modeling approach.

Rising temperatures are predicted to melt all perennial ice cover in the Arctic by the end of this century, thus opening up suitable habitat for temperate and subarctic species. Canopy-forming seaweeds provide an ideal system to predict the potential impact of climate-change on rocky-shore ecosystems, given their direct dependence on temperature and their key role in the ecological system. Our primary objective was to predict the climate-change induced range-shift of Fucus distichus, the dominant canopy-forming macroalga in the Arctic and subarctic rocky intertidal. More specifically, we asked: which Arctic/subarctic and cold-temperate shores of the northern hemisphere will display the greatest distributional change of F. distichus and how will this affect niche overlap with seaweeds from temperate regions? We used the program MAXENT to develop correlative ecological niche models with dominant range-limiting factors and 169 occurrence records. Using three climate-change scenarios, we projected habitat suitability of F. distichus - and its niche overlap with three dominant temperate macroalgae - until year 2200. Maximum sea surface temperature was identified as the most important factor in limiting the fundamental niche of F. distichus. Rising temperatures were predicted to have low impact on the species' southern distribution limits, but to shift its northern distribution limits poleward into the high Arctic. In cold-temperate to subarctic regions, new areas of niche overlap were predicted between F. distichus and intertidal macroalgae immigrating from the south. While climate-change threatens intertidal seaweeds in warm-temperate regions, seaweed meadows will likely flourish in the Arctic intertidal. Although this enriches biodiversity and opens up new seaweed-harvesting grounds, it will also trigger unpredictable changes in the structure and functioning of the Arctic intertidal ecosystem.

Variation in thermal stress response in two populations of the brown seaweed, Fucus distichus, from the Arctic and subarctic intertidal.

It is unclear whether intertidal organisms are 'preadapted' to cope with the increase of temperature and temperature variability or if they are currently at their thermal tolerance limits. To address the dichotomy, we focused on an important ecosystem engineer of the Arctic intertidal rocky shores, the seaweed Fucus distichus and investigated thermal stress responses of two populations from different temperature regimes (Svalbard and Kirkenes, Norway). Thermal stress responses at 20°C, 24°C and 28°C were assessed by measuring photosynthetic performance and expression of heat shock protein (HSP) genes (shsp, hsp90 and hsp70). We detected population-specific responses between the two populations of F. distichus, as the Svalbard population revealed a smaller decrease in photosynthesis performance but a greater activation of molecular defence mechanisms (indicated by a wider repertoire of HSP genes and their stronger upregulation) compared with the Kirkenes population. Although the temperatures used in our study exceed temperatures encountered by F. distichus at the study sites, we believe response to these temperatures may serve as a proxy for the species' potential to respond to climate-related stresses.

Thermal stress resistance of the brown alga Fucus serratus along the North-Atlantic coast: acclimatization potential to climate change.

Seaweed-dominated communities are predicted to disappear south of 45° latitude on North-Atlantic rocky shores by 2200 because of climate change. The extent of predicted habitat loss, however, could be mitigated if the seaweeds' physiology is sufficiently plastic to rapidly acclimatize to the warmer temperatures. The main objectives of this study were to identify whether the thermal tolerance of the canopy-forming seaweed Fucus serratus is population-specific and where temperatures are likely to exceed its tolerance limits in the next 200 years. We measured the stress response of seaweed samples from four populations (Norway, Denmark, Brittany and Spain) to common-garden heat stress (20 °C-36 °C) in both photosynthetic performance and transcriptomic upregulation of heat shock protein genes. The two stress indicators did not correlate and likely measured different cellular components of the stress response, but both indicators revealed population-specific differences, suggesting ecotypic differentiation. Our results confirmed that thermal extremes will regularly reach physiologically stressful levels in Brittany (France) and further south by the end of the 22nd century. Although heat stress resilience in photosynthetic performance was higher at the species' southern distributional edge in Spain, the hsp expression pattern suggested that this edge-population experienced reduced fitness and limited responsiveness to further stressors. Thus, F. serratus may be unable to mitigate its predicted northward shift and may be at high risk to lose its center of genetic diversity and adaptability in Brittany (France). As it is an important intertidal key species, the disappearance of this seaweed will likely trigger major ecological changes in the entire associated ecosystem.

Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal.

The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600 km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertidal foundation species. We asked the question: Where will climate change have the greatest impact on three foundational, macroalgal species that occur along North-Atlantic shores: Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, and Ascophyllum nodosum? To predict distributional changes of these key species under three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) over the coming two centuries, we generated Ecological Niche Models with the program MAXENT. Model predictions suggest that these three species will shift northwards as an assemblage or "unit" and that phytogeographic changes will be most pronounced in the southern Arctic and the southern temperate provinces. Our models predict that Arctic shores in Canada, Greenland, and Spitsbergen will become suitable for all three species by 2100. Shores south of 45° North will become unsuitable for at least two of the three focal species on both the Northwest- and Northeast-Atlantic coasts by 2200. If these foundational species are unable to adapt to the rising temperatures, they will lose their centers of genetic diversity and their loss will trigger an unpredictable shift in the North-Atlantic intertidal ecosystem.

Improving transferability of introduced species' distribution models: new tools to forecast the spread of a highly invasive seaweed.

The utility of species distribution models for applications in invasion and global change biology is critically dependent on their transferability between regions or points in time, respectively. We introduce two methods that aim to improve the transferability of presence-only models: density-based occurrence thinning and performance-based predictor selection. We evaluate the effect of these methods along with the impact of the choice of model complexity and geographic background on the transferability of a species distribution model between geographic regions. Our multifactorial experiment focuses on the notorious invasive seaweed Caulerpa cylindracea (previously Caulerpa racemosa var. cylindracea) and uses Maxent, a commonly used presence-only modeling technique. We show that model transferability is markedly improved by appropriate predictor selection, with occurrence thinning, model complexity and background choice having relatively minor effects. The data shows that, if available, occurrence records from the native and invaded regions should be combined as this leads to models with high predictive power while reducing the sensitivity to choices made in the modeling process. The inferred distribution model of Caulerpa cylindracea shows the potential for this species to further spread along the coasts of Western Europe, western Africa and the south coast of Australia.