Developing Parametric and Nonparametric Models for Model-Informed Precision Dosing: A Quality Improvement Effort in Vancomycin for Patients With Obesity.

BACKGROUND: Both parametric and nonparametric methods have been proposed to support model-informed precision dosing (MIPD). However, which approach leads to better models remains uncertain. Using open-source software, these 2 statistical approaches for model development were compared using the pharmacokinetics of vancomycin in a challenging subpopulation of class 3 obesity. METHODS: Patients on vancomycin at the University of Vermont Medical Center from November 1, 2021, to February 14, 2023, were entered into the MIPD software. The inclusion criteria were body mass index (BMI) of at least 40 kg/m2 and 1 or more vancomycin levels. A parametric model was created using nlmixr2/NONMEM, and a nonparametric model was created using metrics. Then, a priori and a posteriori predictions were evaluated using the normalized root mean squared error (nRMSE) for precision and the mean percentage error (MPE) for bias. The parametric model was evaluated in a simulated MIPD context using an external validation dataset. RESULTS: In total, 83 patients were included in the model development, with a median age of 56.6 years (range: 24-89 years), and a median BMI of 46.3 kg/m2 (range: 40-70.3 kg/m2). Both parametric and nonparametric models were 2-compartmental, with creatinine clearance and fat-free mass as covariates to c clearance and volume parameters, respectively. The a priori MPE and nRMSE for the parametric versus nonparametric models were -6.3% versus 2.69% and 27.2% versus 30.7%, respectively. The a posteriori MPE and RMSE were 0.16% and 0.84%, and 13.8% and 13.1%. The parametric model matched or outperformed previously published models on an external validation dataset (n = 576 patients). CONCLUSIONS: Minimal differences were found in the model structure and predictive error between the parametric and nonparametric approaches for modeling vancomycin class 3 obesity. However, the parametric model outperformed several other models, suggesting that institution-specific models may improve pharmacokinetics management.

Best Practice for Therapeutic Drug Monitoring of Infliximab: Position Statement from the International Association of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring and Clinical Toxicology.

BACKGROUND: Infliximab, an anti-tumor necrosis factor monoclonal antibody, has revolutionized the pharmacological management of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs). This position statement critically reviews and examines existing data on therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of infliximab in patients with IMIDs. It provides a practical guide on implementing TDM in current clinical practices and outlines priority areas for future research. METHODS: The endorsing TDM of Biologics and Pharmacometrics Committees of the International Association of TDM and Clinical Toxicology collaborated to create this position statement. RESULTS: Accumulating data support the evidence for TDM of infliximab in the treatment of inflammatory bowel diseases, with limited investigation in other IMIDs. A universal approach to TDM may not fully realize the benefits of improving therapeutic outcomes. Patients at risk for increased infliximab clearance, particularly with a proactive strategy, stand to gain the most from TDM. Personalized exposure targets based on therapeutic goals, patient phenotype, and infliximab administration route are recommended. Rapid assays and home sampling strategies offer flexibility for point-of-care TDM. Ongoing studies on model-informed precision dosing in inflammatory bowel disease will help assess the additional value of precision dosing software tools. Patient education and empowerment, and electronic health record-integrated TDM solutions will facilitate routine TDM implementation. Although optimization of therapeutic effectiveness is a primary focus, the cost-reducing potential of TDM also merits consideration. CONCLUSIONS: Successful implementation of TDM for infliximab necessitates interdisciplinary collaboration among clinicians, hospital pharmacists, and (quantitative) clinical pharmacologists to ensure an efficient research trajectory.

Maximum a posteriori Bayesian methods out-perform non-compartmental analysis for busulfan precision dosing.

Dose personalization improves patient outcomes for many drugs with a narrow therapeutic index and high inter-individuality variability, including busulfan. Non-compartmental analysis (NCA) and model-based methods like maximum a posteriori Bayesian (MAP) approaches are two methods routinely used for dose optimization. These approaches vary in how they estimate patient-specific pharmacokinetic parameters to inform a dose and the impact of these differences is not well-understood. Using busulfan as an example application and area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) as a target exposure metric, these estimation methods were compared using retrospective patient data (N = 246) and simulated precision dosing treatment courses. NCA was performed with or without peak extension, and MAP Bayesian estimation was performed using either the one-compartment Shukla model or the two-compartment McCune model. All methods showed good agreement on real-world data (correlation coefficients of 0.945-0.998) as assessed by Bland-Altman plots, although agreement between NCA and MAP methods was higher during the first dosing interval (0.982-0.994) compared to subsequent dosing intervals (0.918-0.938). In dose adjustment simulations, both NCA and MAP estimated high target attainment (> 98%) although true simulated target attainment was lower for NCA (63-66%) versus MAP (91-93%). The largest differences in AUC estimation were due to different assumptions for the shape of the concentration curve during the infusion phase, followed by how the methods considered time-dependent clearance and concentration-time points collected in earlier intervals. In conclusion, although AUC estimates between the two methods showed good correlation, in a simulated study, MAP lead to higher target attainment. When changing from one method to another, or changing infusion duration and other factors, optimum estimated exposure targets may require adjusting to maintain a consistent exposure.

Model-Based Tacrolimus Follow-up Dosing in Adult Renal Transplant Recipients: A Simulation Trial.

BACKGROUND: Initial algorithm-based dosing appears to be effective in predicting tacrolimus dose requirement. However, achieving and maintaining the target concentrations is challenging. Model-based follow-up dosing, which considers patient characteristics and pharmacological data, may further personalize treatment. This study investigated whether model-based follow-up dosing could lead to more accurate tacrolimus exposure than standard therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) in kidney transplant recipients after an initial algorithm-based dose. METHODS: This simulation trial included patients from a prospective trial that received an algorithm-based tacrolimus starting dose followed by TDM. For every measured tacrolimus predose concentration (C 0,obs ), model-based dosing advice was simulated using the InsightRX software. Based on previous tacrolimus doses and C 0 , age, body surface area, CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 genotypes, hematocrit, albumin, and creatinine, the optimal next dose, and corresponding tacrolimus concentration (C 0,pred ) were predicted. RESULTS: Of 190 tacrolimus C 0 values measured in 59 patients, 121 (63.7%; 95% CI 56.8-70.5) C 0,obs were within the therapeutic range (7.5-12.5 ng/mL) versus 126 (66.3%, 95% CI 59.6-73.0) for C 0,pred ( P = 0.89). The median absolute difference between the tacrolimus C 0 and the target tacrolimus concentration (10.0 ng/mL) was 1.9 ng/mL for C 0,obs versus 1.6 ng/mL for C 0,pred . In a historical cohort of 114 kidney transplant recipients who received a body weight-based starting dose followed by TDM, 172 of 335 tacrolimus C 0 (51.3%) were within the therapeutic range (10.0-15.0 ng/mL). CONCLUSIONS: The combination of an algorithm-based tacrolimus starting dose with model-based follow-up dosing has the potential to minimize under- and overexposure to tacrolimus in the early posttransplant phase, although the additional effect of model-based follow-up dosing on initial algorithm-based dosing seems small.

Mathematical model and tool to explore shorter multi-drug therapy options for active pulmonary tuberculosis.

Standard treatment for active tuberculosis (TB) requires drug treatment with at least four drugs over six months. Shorter-duration therapy would mean less need for strict adherence, and reduced risk of bacterial resistance. A system pharmacology model of TB infection, and drug therapy was developed and used to simulate the outcome of different drug therapy scenarios. The model incorporated human immune response, granuloma lesions, multi-drug antimicrobial chemotherapy, and bacterial resistance. A dynamic population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) simulation model including rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol was developed and parameters aligned with previous experimental data. Population therapy outcomes for simulations were found to be generally consistent with summary results from previous clinical trials, for a range of drug dose and duration scenarios. An online tool developed from this model is released as open source software. The TB simulation tool could support analysis of new therapy options, novel drug types, and combinations, incorporating factors such as patient adherence behavior.

Bayesian clinical decision support-guided versus clinician-guided vancomycin dosing in attainment of targeted pharmacokinetic parameters in a paediatric population.

OBJECTIVES: To compare a Bayesian clinical decision support (CDS) dose-optimizing software program with clinician judgement in individualizing vancomycin dosing regimens to achieve vancomycin pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) targets in a paediatric population. METHODS: A retrospective review combined with a model-based simulation of vancomycin dosing was performed on children aged 1 year to 18 years at the University of California, San Francisco Benioff Children's Hospital Mission Bay. Dosing regimens recommended by the clinical pharmacists, 'clinician-guided', were compared with alternative 'CDS-guided' dosing regimens. The primary outcome was the percentage of occasions predicted to achieve steady-state trough levels within the target range of 10-15 mg/L, with a secondary outcome of predicted attainment of AUC24 ≥400 mg·h/L. Statistical comparison between approaches was performed using a standard t-test. RESULTS: A total of n=144 patient occasions were included. CDS-guided regimens were predicted to achieve vancomycin steady-state troughs in the target range on 70.8% (102/144) of occasions, as compared with 37.5% (54/144) in the clinician-guided arm (P<0.0001). An AUC24 of ≥400 mg·h/L was achieved on 93% (112/121) of occasions in the CDS-guided arm versus 72% (87/121) of occasions in the clinician-guided arm (P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In a simulated analysis, the use of a Bayesian CDS tool was better than clinician judgement in recommending vancomycin dosing regimens in which PK/PD targets would be attained in children.

Prospective validation of a model-informed precision dosing tool for vancomycin in intensive care patients.

AIMS: Vancomycin is an important antibiotic for critically ill patients with Gram-positive bacterial infections. Critically ill patients typically have severely altered pathophysiology, which leads to inefficacy or toxicity. Model-informed precision dosing may aid in optimizing the dose, but prospectively validated tools are not available for this drug in these patients. We aimed to prospectively validate a population pharmacokinetic model for purpose model-informed precision dosing of vancomycin in critically ill patients. METHODS: We first performed a systematic evaluation of various models on retrospectively collected pharmacokinetic data in critically ill patients and then selected the best performing model. This model was implemented in the Insight Rx clinical decision support tool and prospectively validated in a multicentre study in critically ill patients. The predictive performance was obtained as mean prediction error and relative root mean squared error. RESULTS: We identified 5 suitable population pharmacokinetic models. The most suitable model was carried forward to a prospective validation. We found in a prospective multicentre study that the selected model could accurately and precisely predict the vancomycin pharmacokinetics based on a previous measurement, with a mean prediction error and relative root mean squared error of respectively 8.84% (95% confidence interval 5.72-11.96%) and 19.8% (95% confidence interval 17.47-22.13%). CONCLUSION: Using a systematic approach, with a retrospective evaluation and prospective verification we showed the suitability of a model to predict vancomycin pharmacokinetics for purposes of model-informed precision dosing in clinical practice. The presented methodology may serve a generic approach for evaluation of pharmacometric models for the use of model-informed precision dosing in the clinic.

Heterogeneous drug penetrance of veliparib and carboplatin measured in triple negative breast tumors.

BACKGROUND: Poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors (PARPi), coupled to a DNA damaging agent is a promising approach to treating triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). However, not all patients respond; we hypothesize that non-response in some patients may be due to insufficient drug penetration. As a first step to testing this hypothesis, we quantified and visualized veliparib and carboplatin penetration in mouse xenograft TNBCs and patient blood samples. METHODS: MDA-MB-231, HCC70 or MDA-MB-436 human TNBC cells were implanted in 41 beige SCID mice. Low dose (20 mg/kg) or high dose (60 mg/kg) veliparib was given three times daily for three days, with carboplatin (60 mg/kg) administered twice. In addition, blood samples were analyzed from 19 patients from a phase 1 study of carboplatin + PARPi talazoparib. Veliparib and carboplatin was quantified using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS). Veliparib tissue penetration was visualized using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometric imaging (MALDI-MSI) and platinum adducts (covalent nuclear DNA-binding) were quantified using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Pharmacokinetic modeling and Pearson's correlation were used to explore associations between concentrations in plasma, tumor cells and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). RESULTS: Veliparib penetration in xenograft tumors was highly heterogeneous between and within tumors. Only 35% (CI 95% 26-44%), 74% (40-97%) and 46% (9-37%) of veliparib observed in plasma penetrated into MDA-MB-231, HCC70 and MDA-MB-436 cell-based xenografts, respectively. Within tumors, penetration heterogeneity was larger with the 60 mg/kg compared to the 20 mg/kg dose (RSD 155% versus 255%, P = 0.001). These tumor concentrations were predicted similar to clinical dosing levels, but predicted tumor concentrations were below half maximal concentration values as threshold of response. Xenograft veliparib concentrations correlated positively with platinum adduct formation (R 2 = 0.657), but no PARPi-platinum interaction was observed in patients' PBMCs. Platinum adduct formation was significantly higher in five gBRCA carriers (ratio of platinum in DNA in PBMCs/plasma 0.64% (IQR 0.60-1.16%) compared to nine non-carriers (ratio 0.29% (IQR 0.21-0.66%, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: PARPi/platinum tumor penetration can be measured by MALDI-MSI and ICP-MS in PBMCs and fresh frozen, OCT embedded core needle biopsies. Large variability in platinum adduct formation and spatial heterogeneity in veliparib distribution may lead to insufficient drug exposure in select cell populations.

Performance of Eight Infliximab Population Pharmacokinetic Models in a Cohort of Dutch Children with Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Efficacy of infliximab in children with inflammatory bowel disease can be enhanced when serum concentrations are measured and further dosing is adjusted to achieve and maintain a target concentration. Use of a population pharmacokinetic model may help to predict an individual's infliximab dose requirement. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive performance of available infliximab population pharmacokinetic models in an independent cohort of Dutch children with inflammatory bowel disease. METHODS: In this retrospective study, we used data of 70 children with inflammatory bowel disease (443 infliximab concentrations) to evaluate eight models that focused on infliximab pharmacokinetic models in individuals with inflammatory bowel disease, preferably aged ≤ 18 years. Predictive performance was evaluated with prior predictions (based solely on patient-specific covariates) and posterior predictions (based on covariates and infliximab trough concentrations). Model accuracy and precision were calculated with relative bias and relative root mean square error and we determined the classification accuracy at the trough concentration target of ≥ 5 mg/L. RESULTS: The population pharmacokinetic model by Fasanmade was identified to be most appropriate for the total dataset (relative bias before/after therapeutic drug monitoring: -20.7%/11.2% and relative root mean square error before/after therapeutic drug monitoring: 84.1%/51.6%), although differences between models were small and several were deemed suitable for clinical use. For the Fasanmade model, sensitivity and specificity for maximum posterior predictions for the next infliximab trough concentration to be ≥ 5 mg/L were respectively 83.5% and 80% with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.870. CONCLUSIONS: In our paediatric cohort, various models provided acceptable predictive performance, with the Fasanmade model deemed most suitable for clinical use. Model-informed precision dosing can therefore be expected to help to maintain infliximab trough concentrations in the target range.

Personalized Antifungal Therapy Through Model-Informed Precision Dosing of Posaconazole.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Posaconazole is a pharmacotherapeutic pillar for prophylaxis and treatment of invasive fungal diseases. Dose individualization is of utmost importance as achieving adequate antifungal exposure is associated with improved outcome. This study aimed to select and evaluate a model-informed precision dosing strategy for posaconazole. METHODS: Available population pharmacokinetic models for posaconazole administered as a solid oral tablet were extracted from the literature and evaluated using data from a previously published prospective study combined with data collected during routine clinical practice. External evaluation and selection of the most accurate and precise model was based on graphical goodness-of-fit and predictive performance. Measures for bias and imprecision included mean percentage error (MPE) and normalized relative root mean squared error (NRMSE), respectively. Subsequently, the best-performing model was evaluated for its a posteriori fit-for-purpose and its suitability in a limited sampling strategy. RESULTS: Seven posaconazole models were evaluated using 764 posaconazole plasma concentrations from 143 patients. Multiple models showed adequate predictive performance illustrated by acceptable goodness-of-fit and MPE and NRMSE below ± 10% and ± 25%, respectively. In the fit-for-purpose analysis, the selected model showed adequate a posteriori predictive performance. Bias and imprecision were lowest in the presence of two prior measurements. Additionally, this model showed to be useful in a limited sampling strategy as it adequately predicted total posaconazole exposure from one (non-)trough concentration. CONCLUSION: We validated an MIPD strategy for posaconazole for its fit-for-purpose. Thereby, this study is an important first step towards MIPD-supported posaconazole dosage optimization with the goal to improve antifungal treatment in clinical practice.

A time-to-event model for acute rejections in paediatric renal transplant recipients treated with ciclosporin A.

AIMS: Ciclosporin A (CsA) dosing in immunosuppression after paediatric kidney transplantation remains challenging, and appropriate target CsA exposures (AUCs) are controversial. This study aimed to develop a time-to-first-acute rejection (AR) model and to explore predictive factors for therapy outcome. METHODS: Patient records at the Children's Hospital in Helsinki, Finland, were analysed. A parametric survival model in NONMEM was used to describe the time to first AR. The influences of AUC and other covariates were explored using stepwise covariate modelling, bootstrap-stepwise covariate modelling and cross-validated stepwise covariate modelling. The clinical relevance of the effects was assessed with the time at which 90% of the patients were AR free (t90). RESULTS: Data from 87 patients (0.7-19.8 years old, 54 experiencing an AR) were analysed. The baseline hazard was described with a function changing in steps over time. No statistically significant covariate effects were identified, a finding substantiated by all methods used. Thus, within the observed AUC range (90% interval 1.13-8.40 h mg l⁻¹), a rise in AUC was not found to increase protection from AR. Dialysis time, sex and baseline weight were potential covariates, but the predicted clinical relevance of their effects was low. For the strongest covariate, dialysis time, median t90 was 5.8 days (90% confidence interval 5.1-6.8) for long dialysis times (90th percentile) and 7.4 days (6.4-11.7) for short dialysis times (10th percentile). CONCLUSIONS: A survival model with discrete time-varying hazards described the data. Within the observed range, AUC was not identified as a covariate. This feedback on clinical practice may help to avoid unnecessarily high CsA dosing in children.

Clinical Decision Support for Precision Dosing: Opportunities for Enhanced Equity and Inclusion in Health Care.

Precision dosing aims to tailor doses to individual patients with the goal of improving treatment efficacy and avoiding toxicity. Clinical decision support software (CDSS) plays a crucial role in mediating this process, translating knowledge derived from clinical trials and real-world data (RWD) into actionable insights for clinicians to use at the point of care. However, not all patient populations are proportionally represented in clinical trials and other data sources that inform CDSS tools, limiting the applicability of these tools for underrepresented populations. Here, we review some of the limitations of existing CDSS tools and discuss methods for overcoming these gaps. We discuss considerations for study design and modeling to create more inclusive CDSS, particularly with an eye toward better incorporation of biological indicators in place of race, ethnicity, or sex. We also review inclusive practices for collection of these demographic data, during both study design and in software user interface design. Because of the role CDSS plays in both recording routine clinical care data and disseminating knowledge derived from data, CDSS presents a promising opportunity to continuously improve precision dosing algorithms using RWD to better reflect the diversity of patient populations.

Evaluation of Neonatal and Paediatric Vancomycin Pharmacokinetic Models and the Impact of Maturation and Serum Creatinine Covariates in a Large Multicentre Data Set.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Infants and neonates present a clinical challenge for dosing drugs with high interindividual variability due to these patients' rapid growth and the interplay between maturation and organ function. Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD), which can account for interindividual variability via patient characteristics and Bayesian forecasting, promises to improve individualized dosing strategies in this complex population. Here, we assess the predictive performance of published population pharmacokinetic models describing vancomycin in neonates and infants, and analyze the robustness of these models in the face of clinical uncertainty surrounding covariate values. METHODS: The predictive precision and bias of nine pharmacokinetic models were compared in a large multi-site data set (N = 2061 patients, 5794 drug levels, 28 institutions) of patients aged 0-365 days. The robustness of model predictions to errors in serum creatinine measurements and gestational age was assessed by using recorded values or by replacing covariate values with 0.3, 0.5 or 0.8 mg/dL or with 40 weeks, respectively. RESULTS: Of the nine models, two models (Dao and Jacqz-Aigrain) resulted in predicted concentrations within 2.5 mg/L or 15% of the measured values for at least 60% of population predictions. Within individual models, predictive performance often 2 differed in neonates (0-4 weeks) versus older infants (15-52 weeks). For preterm neonates, imputing gestational age as 40 weeks reduced the accuracy of model predictions. Measured values of serum creatinine improved model predictions compared to using imputed values even in neonates ≤1 week of age. CONCLUSIONS: Several available pharmacokinetic models are suitable for MIPD in infants and neonates. Availability and accuracy of model covariates for patients will be important for guiding dose decision-making.

Clinical decision support for chemotherapy-induced neutropenia using a hybrid pharmacodynamic/machine learning model.

Consensus guidelines recommend use of granulocyte colony stimulating factor in patients deemed at risk of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia, however, these risk models are limited in the factors they consider and miss some cases of neutropenia. Clinical decision making could be supported using models that better tailor their predictions to the individual patient using the wealth of data available in electronic health records (EHRs). Here, we present a hybrid pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD)/machine learning (ML) approach that uses predictions and individual Bayesian parameter estimates from a PKPD model to enrich an ML model built on her data. We demonstrate this approach using models developed on a large real-world data set of 9121 patients treated for lymphoma, breast, or thoracic cancer. We also investigate the benefits of augmenting the training data using synthetic data simulated with the PKPD model. We find that PKPD-enrichment of ML models improves prediction of grade 3-4 neutropenia, as measured by higher precision (61%) and recall (39%) compared to PKPD model predictions (47%, 33%) or base ML model predictions (51%, 31%). PKPD augmentation of ML models showed minor improvements in recall (44%) but not precision (56%), and data augmentation required careful tuning to control overfitting its predictions to the PKPD model. PKPD enrichment of ML shows promise for leveraging both the physiology-informed predictions of PKPD and the ability of ML to learn predictor-outcome relationships from large data sets to predict patient response to drugs in a clinical precision dosing context.

Early At-Home Measurement of Adalimumab Concentrations to Guide Anti-TNF Precision Dosing: A Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Underdosing of adalimumab can result in non-response and poor disease control in patients with rheumatic disease or inflammatory bowel disease. In this pilot study we aimed to predict adalimumab concentrations with population pharmacokinetic model-based Bayesian forecasting early in therapy. METHODS: Adalimumab pharmacokinetic models were identified with a literature search. A fit-for-purpose evaluation of the model was performed for rheumatologic and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients with adalimumab peak (first dose) and trough samples (first and seventh dose) obtained by a volumetric absorptive microsampling technique. Steady state adalimumab concentrations were predicted after the first adalimumab administration. Predictive performance was calculated with mean prediction error (MPE) and normalised root mean square error (RMSE). RESULTS: Thirty-six patients (22 rheumatologic and 14 IBD) were analysed in our study. After stratification for absence of anti-adalimumab antibodies, the calculated MPE was -2.6% and normalised RMSE 24.0%. Concordance between predicted and measured adalimumab serum concentrations falling within or outside the therapeutic window was 75%. Three patients (8.3%) developed detectable concentrations of anti-adalimumab antibodies. CONCLUSION: This prospective study demonstrates that adalimumab concentrations at steady state can be predicted from early samples during the induction phase. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered in the Netherlands Trial Register with trial registry number NTR 7692 ( www.trialregister.nl ).

Two-stage model-based design of cancer phase I dose escalation trials: evaluation using the phase I program of barasertib (AZD1152).

INTRODUCTION: Modeling and simulation of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics has previously been shown to be potentially useful in designing Phase I programs of novel anti-cancer agents that show hematological toxicity. In this analysis, a two-stage model-based trial design was evaluated retrospectively using data from the Phase I program with the aurora kinase inhibitor barasertib. METHODS: Data from two Phase I trials and four regimens were used (n = 79). Using barasertib-hydroxy QPA plasma concentrations and neutrophil count data from only study 1A, a PKPD model was developed and subsequently used to predict the MTD and a safe starting dose for the other trials. RESULTS: The PKPD model based on data from the first study adequately described the time course of neutrophil count fluctuation. The two-stage model-based design provided safe starting doses for subsequent phase I trials for barasertib. Predicted safe starting dose levels were higher than those used in two subsequent trials, but lower than used in the other trial. DISCUSSION: The two-stage approach could have been applied safely to define starting doses for alternative dosing strategies with barasertib. The limited improvement in efficiency for the phase I program of barasertib may have been due to the fact that starting doses for the studied phase I trials were already nearly optimal. CONCLUSION: Application of the two-stage model-based trial design in Phase I programs with novel anti-cancer drugs that cause haematological toxicity is feasible, safe, and may lead to a reduction in the number of patient treated at sub-therapeutic dose-levels.

Model-based treatment optimization of a novel VEGFR inhibitor.

AIM: To evaluate dosing and intervention strategies for the phase II programme of a VEGF receptor inhibitor using PK-PD modelling and simulation, with the aim of maximizing (i) the number of patients on treatment and (ii) the average dose level during treatment. METHODS: A previously developed PK-PD model for lenvatinib (E7080) was updated and parameters were re-estimated (141 patients, once daily and twice daily regimens). Treatment of lenvatinib was simulated for 16 weeks, initiated at 25 mg once daily. Outcome measures included the number of patients on treatment and overall drug exposure. A hypertension intervention design proposed for phase II studies was evaluated, including antihypertensive treatment and dose de-escalation. Additionally, a within-patient dose escalation was investigated, titrating up to 50 mg once daily unless unacceptable toxicity occurred. RESULTS: Using the proposed antihypertension intervention design, 82% of patients could remain on treatment, and the mean dose administered was 21.5 mg day⁻¹. The adverse event (AE) guided dose titration increased the average dose by 4.6 mg day⁻¹, while only marginally increasing the percentage of patients dropping out due to toxicity (from 18% to 20.8%). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed hypertension intervention design is expected to be effective in maintaining patients on treatment with lenvatinib. The AE-guided dose titration with blood pressure as a biomarker yielded a higher overall dose level, without relevant increases in toxicity. Since increased exposure to lenvatinib seems correlated with increased treatment efficacy, the adaptive treatment design may thus be a valid approach to improve treatment outcome.

Evaluating and Improving Neonatal Gentamicin Pharmacokinetic Models Using Aggregated Routine Clinical Care Data.

Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) can aid dose decision-making for drugs such as gentamicin that have high inter-individual variability, a narrow therapeutic window, and a high risk of exposure-related adverse events. However, MIPD in neonates is challenging due to their dynamic development and maturation and by the need to minimize blood sampling due to low blood volume. Here, we investigate the ability of six published neonatal gentamicin population pharmacokinetic models to predict gentamicin concentrations in routine therapeutic drug monitoring from nine sites in the United State (n = 475 patients). We find that four out of six models predicted with acceptable levels of error and bias for clinical use. These models included known important covariates for gentamicin PK, showed little bias in prediction residuals over covariate ranges, and were developed on patient populations with similar covariate distributions as the one assessed here. These four models were refit using the published parameters as informative Bayesian priors or without priors in a continuous learning process. We find that refit models generally reduce error and bias on a held-out validation data set, but that informative prior use is not uniformly advantageous. Our work informs clinicians implementing MIPD of gentamicin in neonates, as well as pharmacometricians developing or improving PK models for use in MIPD.

Prospective Validation and Refinement of a Population Pharmacokinetic Model of Fludarabine in Children and Young Adults Undergoing Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation.

Fludarabine is a nucleoside analog with antileukemic and immunosuppressive activity commonly used in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). Several fludarabine population pharmacokinetic (popPK) and pharmacodynamic models have been published enabling the movement towards precision dosing of fludarabine in pediatric HCT; however, developed models have not been validated in a prospective cohort of patients. In this multicenter pharmacokinetic study, fludarabine plasma concentrations were collected via a sparse-sampling strategy. A fludarabine popPK model was evaluated and refined using standard nonlinear mixed effects modelling techniques. The previously described fludarabine popPK model well-predicted the prospective fludarabine plasma concentrations. Individuals who received model-based dosing (MBD) of fludarabine achieved significantly more precise overall exposure of fludarabine. The fludarabine popPK model was further improved by both the inclusion of fat-free mass instead of total body weight and a maturation function on fludarabine clearance. The refined popPK model is expected to improve dosing recommendations for children younger than 2 years and patients with higher body mass index. Given the consistency of fludarabine clearance and exposure across its multiple days of administration, therapeutic drug monitoring is not likely to improve targeted exposure attainment.