Lower or Higher Oxygenation Targets for Acute Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure.

BACKGROUND: Patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure in the intensive care unit (ICU) are treated with supplemental oxygen, but the benefits and harms of different oxygenation targets are unclear. We hypothesized that using a lower target for partial pressure of arterial oxygen (Pao2) would result in lower mortality than using a higher target. METHODS: In this multicenter trial, we randomly assigned 2928 adult patients who had recently been admitted to the ICU (≤12 hours before randomization) and who were receiving at least 10 liters of oxygen per minute in an open system or had a fraction of inspired oxygen of at least 0.50 in a closed system to receive oxygen therapy targeting a Pao2 of either 60 mm Hg (lower-oxygenation group) or 90 mm Hg (higher-oxygenation group) for a maximum of 90 days. The primary outcome was death within 90 days. RESULTS: At 90 days, 618 of 1441 patients (42.9%) in the lower-oxygenation group and 613 of 1447 patients (42.4%) in the higher-oxygenation group had died (adjusted risk ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.94 to 1.11; P = 0.64). At 90 days, there was no significant between-group difference in the percentage of days that patients were alive without life support or in the percentage of days they were alive after hospital discharge. The percentages of patients who had new episodes of shock, myocardial ischemia, ischemic stroke, or intestinal ischemia were similar in the two groups (P = 0.24). CONCLUSIONS: Among adult patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure in the ICU, a lower oxygenation target did not result in lower mortality than a higher target at 90 days. (Funded by the Innovation Fund Denmark and others; HOT-ICU ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03174002.).

Associations between enteral nutrition and outcomes in the SUP-ICU trial: Results of exploratory post hoc analyses.

BACKGROUND: Enteral nutrition may affect risks of gastrointestinal bleeding, pneumonia and mortality in critically ill patients and may also modify the effects of pharmacological stress ulcer prophylaxis. We undertook post hoc analyses of the stress ulcer prophylaxis in the intensive care unit trial to assess for any associations and interactions between enteral nutrition and pantoprazole. METHODS: Extended Cox models with time-varying co-variates and competing events were used to assess potential associations, adjusted for baseline severity of illness. Potential interactions between daily enteral nutrition and allocation to pantoprazole on outcomes were similarly assessed. RESULTS: Enteral nutrition was associated with lower risk of clinically important gastrointestinal bleeding (cause-specific hazard ratio [HR]: 0.29, 95% confidence interval: [CI] 0.19-0.44, p < .001), higher risk of pneumonia (HR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.14-1.82, p = .003), and lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.18-0.27, p < .001). Enteral nutrition with allocation to pantoprazole was associated with a lower risk of mortality (HR: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.21-0.35, p < .001), similar to enteral nutrition with allocation to placebo (HR: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.13-0.23, p < .001). Allocation to pantoprazole with no enteral nutrition had little effect on mortality (HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.63-1.09, p = .179), whilst allocation to pantoprazole and receipt of enteral nutrition was mostly compatible with increased all-cause mortality (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 0.99-1.64, p = .061). The test of interaction between enteral nutrition and pantoprazole treatment allocation for all-cause mortality was statistically significant (p = .024). CONCLUSIONS: Enteral nutrition was associated with an increased risk of pneumonia and a reduced risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. The interaction between pantoprazole and enteral nutrition suggesting an increased risk of mortality requires further study.

Furosemide versus placebo for fluid overload in intensive care patients-The randomised GODIF trial second version: Statistical analysis plan.

BACKGROUND: Fluid overload is associated with increased mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The GODIF trial aims to assess the benefits and harms of fluid removal with furosemide versus placebo in stable adult patients with moderate to severe fluid overload in the ICU. This article describes the detailed statistical analysis plan for the primary results of the second version of the GODIF trial. METHODS: The GODIF trial is an international, multi-centre, randomised, stratified, blinded, parallel-group, pragmatic clinical trial, allocating 1000 adult ICU patients with moderate to severe fluid overload 1:1 to furosemide versus placebo. The primary outcome is days alive and out of hospital within 90 days post-randomisation. With a power of 90% and an alpha level of 5%, we may reject or detect an improvement of 8%. The primary analyses of all outcomes will be performed in the intention-to-treat population. For the primary outcome, the Kryger Jensen and Lange method will be used to compare the two treatment groups adjusted for stratification variables supplemented with sensitivity analyses in the per-protocol population and with further adjustments for prognostic variables. Secondary outcomes will be analysed with multiple linear regressions, logistic regressions or the Kryger Jensen and Lange method as suitable with adjustment for stratification variables. CONCLUSION: The GODIF trial data will increase the certainty about the effects of fluid removal using furosemide in adult ICU patients with fluid overload. TRIAL REGISTRATIONS: EudraCT identifier: 2019-004292-40 and ClinicalTrials.org: NCT04180397.

External Validation of Mortality Prediction Models for Critical Illness Reveals Preserved Discrimination but Poor Calibration.

OBJECTIVES: In a recent scoping review, we identified 43 mortality prediction models for critically ill patients. We aimed to assess the performances of these models through external validation. DESIGN: Multicenter study. SETTING: External validation of models was performed in the Simple Intensive Care Studies-I (SICS-I) and the Finnish Acute Kidney Injury (FINNAKI) study. PATIENTS: The SICS-I study consisted of 1,075 patients, and the FINNAKI study consisted of 2,901 critically ill patients. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: For each model, we assessed: 1) the original publications for the data needed for model reconstruction, 2) availability of the variables, 3) model performance in two independent cohorts, and 4) the effects of recalibration on model performance. The models were recalibrated using data of the SICS-I and subsequently validated using data of the FINNAKI study. We evaluated overall model performance using various indexes, including the (scaled) Brier score, discrimination (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics), calibration (intercepts and slopes), and decision curves. Eleven models (26%) could be externally validated. The Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, APACHE IV, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS)-Reduced (SAPS-R)' and Simplified Mortality Score for the ICU models showed the best scaled Brier scores of 0.11' 0.10' 0.10' and 0.06' respectively. SAPS II, APACHE II, and APACHE IV discriminated best; overall discrimination of models ranged from area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics of 0.63 (0.61-0.66) to 0.83 (0.81-0.85). We observed poor calibration in most models, which improved to at least moderate after recalibration of intercepts and slopes. The decision curve showed a positive net benefit in the 0-60% threshold probability range for APACHE IV and SAPS-R. CONCLUSIONS: In only 11 out of 43 available mortality prediction models, the performance could be studied using two cohorts of critically ill patients. External validation showed that the discriminative ability of APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPS II was acceptable to excellent, whereas calibration was poor.

Associations between enteral nutrition and outcomes in the SUP-ICU trial: Protocol for exploratory post hoc analyses.

Critically ill patients are at risk of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. Counter measures to minimise this risk include the use of pharmacological stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP). The effect of enteral nutrition as SUP on GI bleeding event rates is unknown. There are conflicting data describing the effect of co-administration of enteral nutrition with pharmacological SUP, and there is substantial variation in practice. We aim to conduct an exploratory post hoc analysis to evaluate the association of enteral nutrition with clinically important GI bleed rates in ICU patients included in the SUP-ICU trial, and to explore any interactions between enteral nutrition and pharmacologic SUP on patient outcomes. The SUP-ICU trial dataset will be used to assess if enteral nutrition is associated with the outcomes of interest. Extended Cox models will be used considering relevant competing events, including treatment allocation (SUP or placebo) and enteral nutrition as a daily time-varying covariate, with additional adjustment for severity of illness (SAPS II). Results will be presented as adjusted hazard ratios for treatment allocation and enteral nutrition, and for treatment allocation and enteral nutrition considering potential interactions with the other variable, all with 95% confidence intervals and p-values for the tests of interaction. All results will be considered as exploratory only. This post hoc analysis may yield important insights to guide practice and inform the design of future randomised clinical trial investigating the effect of enteral nutrition on GI bleeding.

Management of acute atrial fibrillation in the intensive care unit: An international survey.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in intensive care unit (ICU) patients and is associated with poor outcomes. Different management strategies exist, but the evidence is limited and derived from non-ICU patients. This international survey of ICU doctors evaluated the preferred management of acute AF in ICU patients. METHOD: We conducted an international online survey of ICU doctors with 27 questions about the preferred management of acute AF in the ICU, including antiarrhythmic therapy in hemodynamically stable and unstable patients and use of anticoagulant therapy. RESULTS: A total of 910 respondents from 70 ICUs in 14 countries participated in the survey with 24%-100% of doctors from sites responding. Most ICUs (80%) did not have a local guideline for the management of acute AF. The preferred first-line strategy for the management of hemodynamically stable patients with acute AF was observation (95% of respondents), rhythm control (3%), or rate control (2%). For hemodynamically unstable patients, the preferred strategy was observation (48%), rhythm control (48%), or rate control (4%). Overall, preferred antiarrhythmic interventions included amiodarone, direct current cardioversion, beta-blockers other than sotalol, and magnesium in that order. A total of 67% preferred using anticoagulant therapy in ICU patients with AF, among whom 61% preferred therapeutic dose anticoagulants and 39% prophylactic dose anticoagulants. CONCLUSION: This international survey indicated considerable practice variation among ICU doctors in the clinical management of acute AF, including the overall management strategies and the use of antiarrhythmic interventions and anticoagulants.

Goal directed fluid removal with furosemide versus placebo in intensive care patients with fluid overload: A trial protocol for a randomised, blinded trial (GODIF trial).

BACKGROUND: Fluid overload is a risk factor for mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Administration of loop diuretics is the predominant treatment of fluid overload, but evidence for its benefit is very uncertain when assessed in a systematic review of randomised clinical trials. The GODIF trial will assess the benefits and harms of goal directed fluid removal with furosemide versus placebo in ICU patients with fluid overload. METHODS: An investigator-initiated, international, randomised, stratified, blinded, parallel-group trial allocating 1000 adult ICU patients with fluid overload to infusion of furosemide versus placebo. The goal is to achieve a neutral fluid balance. The primary outcome is days alive and out of hospital 90 days after randomisation. Secondary outcomes are all-cause mortality at day 90 and 1-year after randomisation; days alive at day 90 without life support; number of participants with one or more serious adverse events or reactions; health-related quality of life and cognitive function at 1-year follow-up. A sample size of 1000 participants is required to detect an improvement of 8% in days alive and out of hospital 90 days after randomisation with a power of 90% and a risk of type 1 error of 5%. The conclusion of the trial will be based on the point estimate and 95% confidence interval; dichotomisation will not be used. CLINICALTRIALS: gov identifier: NCT04180397. PERSPECTIVE: The GODIF trial will provide important evidence of possible benefits and harms of fluid removal with furosemide in adult ICU patients with fluid overload.

Pantoprazole in Patients at Risk for Gastrointestinal Bleeding in the ICU.

BACKGROUND: Prophylaxis for gastrointestinal stress ulceration is frequently given to patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), but its risks and benefits are unclear. METHODS: In this European, multicenter, parallel-group, blinded trial, we randomly assigned adults who had been admitted to the ICU for an acute condition (i.e., an unplanned admission) and who were at risk for gastrointestinal bleeding to receive 40 mg of intravenous pantoprazole (a proton-pump inhibitor) or placebo daily during the ICU stay. The primary outcome was death by 90 days after randomization. RESULTS: A total of 3298 patients were enrolled; 1645 were randomly assigned to the pantoprazole group and 1653 to the placebo group. Data on the primary outcome were available for 3282 patients (99.5%). At 90 days, 510 patients (31.1%) in the pantoprazole group and 499 (30.4%) in the placebo group had died (relative risk, 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91 to 1.13; P=0.76). During the ICU stay, at least one clinically important event (a composite of clinically important gastrointestinal bleeding, pneumonia, Clostridium difficile infection, or myocardial ischemia) had occurred in 21.9% of patients assigned to pantoprazole and 22.6% of those assigned to placebo (relative risk, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.11). In the pantoprazole group, 2.5% of patients had clinically important gastrointestinal bleeding, as compared with 4.2% in the placebo group. The number of patients with infections or serious adverse reactions and the percentage of days alive without life support within 90 days were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among adult patients in the ICU who were at risk for gastrointestinal bleeding, mortality at 90 days and the number of clinically important events were similar in those assigned to pantoprazole and those assigned to placebo. (Funded by Innovation Fund Denmark and others; SUP-ICU ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02467621 .).

Incidence, prognostic factors, and outcomes of venous thromboembolism in critically ill patients: data from two prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to describe the prevalence, incidence, prognostic factors, and outcomes of venous thromboembolism in critically ill patients receiving contemporary thrombosis prophylaxis. METHODS: We conducted a pooled analysis of two prospective cohort studies. The outcomes of interest were in-hospital pulmonary embolism or lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (PE-LDVT), in-hospital nonleg deep vein thrombosis (NLDVT), and 90-day mortality. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between predefined baseline prognostic factors and PE-LDVT or NLDVT. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between PE-LDVT or NLDVT and 90-day mortality. RESULTS: A total of 2208 patients were included. The prevalence of any venous thromboembolism during 3 months before ICU admission was 3.6% (95% CI 2.8-4.4%). Out of 2166 patients, 47 (2.2%; 95% CI 1.6-2.9%) developed PE-LDVT and 38 patients (1.8%; 95% CI 1.2-2.4%) developed NLDVT. Renal replacement therapy (OR 3.5 95% CI 1.4-8.6), respiratory failure (OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.1-3.8), and previous VTE (OR 3.6; 95% CI 1.7-7.7) were associated with PE-LDVT. Central venous catheters (OR 5.4; 95% CI 1.7-17.8) and infection (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.1-4.3) were associated with NLDVT. Occurrence of PE-LDVT but not NLDVT was associated with increased 90-day mortality (HR 2.7; 95% CI 1.6-4.6, respectively, 0.92; 95% CI 0.41-2.1). CONCLUSION: Thrombotic events are common in critically ill patients, both before and after ICU admittance. Development of PE-LDVT but not NLDVT was associated with increased mortality. Prognostic factors for developing PE-LDVT or NLDVT despite prophylaxis can be identified at ICU admission and may be used to select patients at higher risk in future randomized clinical trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03773939.

New-onset atrial fibrillation in the intensive care unit: Protocol for an international inception cohort study (AFIB-ICU).

INTRODUCTION: New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) is frequently observed in critically ill patients and may be associated with prolonged hospital stay and increased mortality. Considerable variation exists in the reported frequencies of NOAF due to the lack of a standardised definition and detection method. Importantly, there are limited data on NOAF in the intensive care unit (ICU). Thus, we aim to provide contemporary epidemiological data on NOAF in the ICU. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We have designed an international inception cohort study including at least 1,000 consecutive adult patients acutely admitted to the ICU without prior history of persistent or permanent AF. We will present data on the incidence, risk factors, used management strategies and outcomes of NOAF. We will register data daily during stay in the ICU for a maximum of 90 days after admission. The incidence of NOAF and management strategies used will be presented descriptively, and we will use Cox regression analyses including competing risk analyses to assess risk factors for NOAF and any association with 90-day mortality. CONCLUSION: The outlined international AFIB-ICU inception cohort study will provide contemporary data on the incidence, risk factors, used management strategies and outcomes of NOAF in adult ICU patients. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This observational study poses no risk to the included patients. All participating sites will obtain relevant approvals according to national laws before patient enrollment. Funding sources will have no influence on data handling, analyses or writing of the manuscript. The study report(s) will be submitted to an international peer-reviewed journal.

Barriers That Obstruct Return to Work After Coronary Bypass Surgery: A Qualitative Study.

Purpose Coronary artery bypass grafting is the most frequently performed cardiac surgical procedure. Despite its benefits on survival and quality of life, it is associated with a considerable financial burden on society including sick leave. Our study aimed to explore the barriers that obstruct return to work after coronary artery bypass grafting. Methods We performed a qualitative study with in-depth interviewing of patients 6 months after their surgery. We included ten working patients and interviewed them and their spouses at home. The interviews were transcribed and two investigators independently searched the transcriptions for barriers that had obstructed return to work. Results Based on the interviews we were able to distinguish four main groups of barriers: 'personal', 'healthcare', 'work' and 'law & regulation.' The personal barriers were subgrouped in affective, physical, cognitive, social and individually determined factors. Conclusion In a qualitative study we showed that personal barriers as well as barriers regarding healthcare, work and law & regulation, were perceived by patients as important factors obstructing return to work after coronary artery bypass grafting. To overcome the identified barriers, the process of return to work could preferably be initiated during the hospital phase, started during cardiac rehabilitation, and coordinated by a case-managing professional.

Different applications of the KDIGO criteria for AKI lead to different incidences in critically ill patients: a post hoc analysis from the prospective observational SICS-II study.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent and clinically relevant problem in critically ill patients. Various randomized controlled trials (RCT) have attempted to assess potentially beneficial treatments for AKI. Different approaches to applying the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria for AKI make a comparison of studies difficult. The objective of this study was to assess how different approaches may impact estimates of AKI incidence and whether the association between AKI and 90-day mortality varied by the approach used. METHODS: Consecutive acutely admitted adult intensive care patients were included in a prospective observational study. AKI was determined following the KDIGO criteria during the first 7 days of ICU admission. In this post hoc analysis, we assessed whether AKI incidence differed when applying the KDIGO criteria in 30 different possible methods, varying in (A) serum creatinine (sCr), (B) urine output (UO), and (C) the method of combining these two into an outcome, e.g., severe AKI. We assessed point estimates and 95% confidence intervals for each incidence. Univariable regression was used to assess the associations between AKI and 90-day mortality. RESULTS: A total of 1010 patients were included. Baseline creatinine was available in 449 (44%) patients. The incidence of any AKI ranged from 28% (95%CI 25-31%) to 75% (95%CI 72-77%) depending on the approach used. Methods to estimate missing baseline sCr caused a variation in AKI incidence up to 15%. Different methods of handling UO caused a variation of up to 35%. At 90 days, 263 patients (26%) had died, and all 30 variations were associated with 90-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of critically ill patients, AKI incidence varied from 28 to 75%, depending on the method used of applying the KDIGO criteria. A tighter adherence to KDIGO definitions is warranted to decrease the heterogeneity of AKI and increase the comparability of future studies.

Should the ultrasound probe replace your stethoscope? A SICS-I sub-study comparing lung ultrasound and pulmonary auscultation in the critically ill.

BACKGROUND: In critically ill patients, auscultation might be challenging as dorsal lung fields are difficult to reach in supine-positioned patients, and the environment is often noisy. In recent years, clinicians have started to consider lung ultrasound as a useful diagnostic tool for a variety of pulmonary pathologies, including pulmonary edema. The aim of this study was to compare lung ultrasound and pulmonary auscultation for detecting pulmonary edema in critically ill patients. METHODS: This study was a planned sub-study of the Simple Intensive Care Studies-I, a single-center, prospective observational study. All acutely admitted patients who were 18 years and older with an expected ICU stay of at least 24 h were eligible for inclusion. All patients underwent clinical examination combined with lung ultrasound, conducted by researchers not involved in patient care. Clinical examination included auscultation of the bilateral regions for crepitations and rhonchi. Lung ultrasound was conducted according to the Bedside Lung Ultrasound in Emergency protocol. Pulmonary edema was defined as three or more B lines in at least two (bilateral) scan sites. An agreement was described by using the Cohen κ coefficient, sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, and overall accuracy. Subgroup analysis were performed in patients who were not mechanically ventilated. RESULTS: The Simple Intensive Care Studies-I cohort included 1075 patients, of whom 926 (86%) were eligible for inclusion in this analysis. Three hundred seven of the 926 patients (33%) fulfilled the criteria for pulmonary edema on lung ultrasound. In 156 (51%) of these patients, auscultation was normal. A total of 302 patients (32%) had audible crepitations or rhonchi upon auscultation. From 130 patients with crepitations, 86 patients (66%) had pulmonary edema on lung ultrasound, and from 209 patients with rhonchi, 96 patients (46%) had pulmonary edema on lung ultrasound. The agreement between auscultation findings and lung ultrasound diagnosis was poor (κ statistic 0.25). Subgroup analysis showed that the diagnostic accuracy of auscultation was better in non-ventilated than in ventilated patients. CONCLUSION: The agreement between lung ultrasound and auscultation is poor. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02912624. Registered on September 23, 2016.

The handling oxygenation targets in the intensive care unit (HOT-ICU) trial: Detailed statistical analysis plan.

BACKGROUND: No solid evidence exists on optimal oxygenation targets in intensive care patients. The handling oxygenation targets in the intensive care unit (HOT-ICU) trial assesses the effects of a targeted arterial oxygen tension of 8 vs 12 kPa on 90-day mortality in acutely admitted adult patients with hypoxaemic respiratory failure. This article describes the detailed statistical analysis plan for the predefined outcomes and supplementary analyses in the HOT-ICU trial. METHODS: The trial will include 2928 patients to be able to detect or reject a true 20% relative risk reduction in the primary outcome of 90-day all-cause mortality with an α of 5% and a ß of 10%. Analyses of the primary and secondary outcomes will be conducted according to the intention-to-treat principle and adjusted for stratification variables. The primary outcome and dichotomous secondary outcomes will be analysed using a generalised linear model with a log-link and binomial error distribution. For the primary outcome, a 95% confidence interval (CI) not including 1.00 for the risk ratio will be considered statistically significant. Continuous secondary outcomes will be analysed using a generalised linear model or nonparametric test. CIs adjusted for the multiple secondary outcomes not including the null effect will be considered statistically significant. One planned interim analysis has been conducted. CONCLUSIONS: The HOT-ICU trial and the pre-planned statistical analyses are designed to minimise bias and produce high quality data on the effects of a lower vs a higher oxygenation target throughout ICU admission in acutely admitted adult patients with hypoxaemic respiratory failure. REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03174002, date of registration: June 2, 2017. European clinical trials database, EudraCT number 2017-000632-34.

Clinical examination findings as predictors of acute kidney injury in critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND: Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) in critically ill patients is associated with a markedly increased morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to establish the predictive value of clinical examination for AKI in critically ill patients. METHODS: This was a sub-study of the SICS-I, a prospective observational cohort study of critically ill patients acutely admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Clinical examination was performed within 24 hours of ICU admission. The occurrence of AKI was determined at day two and three after admission according to the KDIGO definition including serum creatinine and urine output. Multivariable regression modeling was used to assess the value of clinical examination for predicting AKI, adjusted for age, comorbidities and the use of vasopressors. RESULTS: A total of 1003 of 1075 SICS-I patients (93%) were included in this sub-study. 414 of 1003 patients (41%) fulfilled the criteria for AKI. Increased heart rate (OR 1.12 per 10 beats per minute increase, 98.5% CI 1.04-1.22), subjectively cold extremities (OR 1.52, 98.5% CI 1.07-2.16) and a prolonged capillary refill time on the sternum (OR 1.89, 98.5% CI 1.01-3.55) were associated with AKI. This multivariable analysis yielded an area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC) of 0.70 (98.5% CI 0.66-0.74). The model performed better when lactate was included (AUROC of 0.72, 95%CI 0.69-0.75), P = .04. CONCLUSION: Clinical examination findings were able to predict AKI with moderate accuracy in a large cohort of critically ill patients. Findings of clinical examination on ICU admission may trigger further efforts to help predict developing AKI.

Mortality prediction models in the adult critically ill: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Mortality prediction models are applied in the intensive care unit (ICU) to stratify patients into different risk categories and to facilitate benchmarking. To ensure that the correct prediction models are applied for these purposes, the best performing models must be identified. As a first step, we aimed to establish a systematic review of mortality prediction models in critically ill patients. METHODS: Mortality prediction models were searched in four databases using the following criteria: developed for use in adult ICU patients in high-income countries, with mortality as primary or secondary outcome. Characteristics and performance measures of the models were summarized. Performance was presented in terms of discrimination, calibration and overall performance measures presented in the original publication. RESULTS: In total, 43 mortality prediction models were included in the final analysis. In all, 15 models were only internally validated (35%), 13 externally (30%) and 10 (23%) were both internally and externally validated by the original researchers. Discrimination was assessed in 42 models (98%). Commonly used calibration measures were the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (60%) and the calibration plot (28%). Calibration was not assessed in 11 models (26%). Overall performance was assessed in the Brier score (19%) and the Nagelkerke's R2 (4.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality prediction models have varying methodology, and validation and performance of individual models differ. External validation by the original researchers is often lacking and head-to-head comparisons are urgently needed to identify the best performing mortality prediction models for guiding clinical care and research in different settings and populations.

Bundled care in acute kidney injury in critically ill patients, a before-after educational intervention study.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) often occurs in critically ill patients. AKI is associated with mortality and morbidity. Interventions focusing on the reduction of AKI are suggested by the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes guideline. We hypothesized that these educational interventions would improve outcome in patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). METHODS: This was a pragmatic single-centre prospective observational before-after study design in an ICU in a tertiary referral hospital. All consecutive patients admitted to the ICU irrespective their illness were included. A 'Save the Kidney' (STK) bundle was encouraged via an educational intervention targeting health care providers. The educational STK bundle consisted of optimizing the fluid balance (based on urine output, serum lactate levels and/or central venous oxygen saturation), discontinuation of diuretics, maintaining a mean arterial pressure of at least 65 mmHg with the potential use of vasopressors and critical evaluation of the indication and dose of nephrotoxic drugs. The primary outcome was the composite of mortality, renal replacement therapy (RRT), and progression of AKI. Secondary outcomes were the components of the composite outcome the severity of AKI, ICU length of stay and in-hospital mortality. MAIN RESULTS: The primary outcome occurred in 451 patients (33%) in the STK group versus 375 patients (29%) in the usual care group, relative risk (RR) 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.3, p < 0.001. Secondary outcomes were, ICU mortality in 6.8% versus 5.6%, (RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.90-1.64, p = 0.068), RRT in 1.6% versus 3.6% (RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.28-0.76, p = 0.002), and AKI progression in 28% versus 24% (RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.04-1.35, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Providing education to uniformly apply an AKI care bundle, without measurement of the implementation in a non-selected ICU population, targeted at prevention of AKI progression was not beneficial.

Clinical Examination for the Prediction of Mortality in the Critically Ill: The Simple Intensive Care Studies-I.

OBJECTIVES: Caregivers use clinical examination to timely recognize deterioration of a patient, yet data on the prognostic value of clinical examination are inconsistent. In the Simple Intensive Care Studies-I, we evaluated the association of clinical examination findings with 90-day mortality in critically ill patients. DESIGN: Prospective single-center cohort study. SETTING: ICU of a single tertiary care level hospital between March 27, 2015, and July 22, 2017. PATIENTS: All consecutive adults acutely admitted to the ICU and expected to stay for at least 24 hours. INTERVENTIONS: A protocolized clinical examination of 19 clinical signs conducted within 24 hours of admission. MEASUREMENTS MAIN RESULTS: Independent predictors of 90-day mortality were identified using multivariable logistic regression analyses. Model performance was compared with established prognostic risk scores using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves. Robustness of our findings was tested by internal bootstrap validation and adjustment of the threshold for statistical significance. A total of 1,075 patients were included, of whom 298 patients (28%) had died at 90-day follow-up. Multivariable analyses adjusted for age and norepinephrine infusion rate demonstrated that the combination of higher respiratory rate, higher systolic blood pressure, lower central temperature, altered consciousness, and decreased urine output was independently associated with 90-day mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.71-0.78). Clinical examination had a similar discriminative value as compared with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.73-0.79; p = 0.29) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-IV (using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.74-0.80; p = 0.16) and was significantly better than the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.67; 95% CI, 0.64-0.71; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical examination has reasonable discriminative value for assessing 90-day mortality in acutely admitted ICU patients. In our study population, a single, protocolized clinical examination had similar prognostic abilities compared with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-IV and outperformed the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score.

Intermediate Dose Low-Molecular-Weight Heparin for Thrombosis Prophylaxis: Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis and Trial Sequential Analysis.

Different doses of low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) are registered and used for thrombosis prophylaxis. We assessed benefits and harms of thrombosis prophylaxis with a predefined intermediate-dose LMWH compared with placebo or no treatment in patients at risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We performed a systematic review with meta-analyses and trial sequential analyses (TSA) following The Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. Medline, Cochrane CENTRAL, Web of Science, and Embase were searched up to December 2018. Trials were evaluated for risk of bias and quality of evidence was assessed following the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Seventy randomized trials with 34,046 patients were included. Eighteen (26%) had overall low risk of bias. There was a small statistically significant effect of LMWH on all-cause mortality (risk ratio [RR]: 0.96; TSA-adjusted confidence interval [TSA-adjusted CI]: 0.94-0.98) which disappeared in sensitivity analyses excluding ambulatory cancer patients (RR: 0.99; TSA-adjusted CI: 0.84-1.16). There was moderate-quality evidence for a statistically significant beneficial effect on symptomatic VTE (odds ratio [OR]: 0.59; TSA-adjusted CI: 0.53-0.67; number needed to treat [NNT]: 76; 95% CI: 60-106) and a statistically significant harmful effect on major bleeding (Peto OR: 1.66; TSA-adjusted CI: 1.31-2.10; number needed to harm [NNH]: 212; 95% CI: 142-393). There were no significant intervention effects on serious adverse events. The use of intermediate-dose LMWH for thrombosis prophylaxis compared with placebo or no treatment was associated with a small statistically significant reduction of all-cause mortality that disappeared in sensitivity analyses excluding trials that evaluated LMWH for anticancer treatment. Intermediate-dose LMWH provides benefits in terms of VTE prevention while it increases major bleeding.

Outcomes of Prophylactic Pantoprazole in Adult Intensive Care Unit Patients Receiving Dialysis: Results of a Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients with acute kidney injury requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) are considered at high risk of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP) is often prescribed. We aimed to assess the incidence of GI bleeding and effects of SUP in these patients. METHODS: We assessed GI bleeding in ICU patients receiving RRT at baseline (and at any time in the ICU) and effects of prophylactic pantoprazole versus placebo in the international SUP in the ICU (SUP-ICU) trial. All analyses were conducted according to a published protocol and statistical analysis plan. RESULTS: Data of 3,291 acutely admitted adult ICU patients with one or more risk factors for GI bleeding randomized to pantoprazole or placebo intravenously once daily during ICU stay (until ICU discharge, death, or a maximum of 90 days) were analyzed. Some 20 out of 258 (7.8%, 95% CI 4.5-11.1%) and 52 out of 568 (9.2%, 95% CI 6.8-11.6%) of the patients receiving RRT at baseline and at any time in ICU, respectively, developed clinically important GI bleeding in the ICU. We did not observe statistically significant differences in the intervention effect (pantoprazole vs. placebo) in the proportion of patients with clinically important GI bleeding, clinically important events, infectious adverse events, use of interventions to stop GI bleeding, or 90-day mortality in patients with versus without RRT at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: In adult ICU patients receiving RRT at baseline, we observed high incidences of clinically important GI bleeding, but did not observe effects of pantoprazole versus placebo in this subgroup.