Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards.

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900-1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.

Exploring the risks and benefits of flexibility in biodiversity offset location in a case study of migratory shorebirds.

Biodiversity offsets aim to counterbalance the residual impacts of development on species and ecosystems. Guidance documents explicitly recommend that biodiversity offset actions be located close to the location of impact because of higher potential for similar ecological conditions, but allowing greater spatial flexibility has been proposed. We examined the circumstances under which offsets distant from the impact location could be more likely to achieve no net loss or provide better ecological outcomes than offsets close to the impact area. We applied a graphical model for migratory shorebirds in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway as a case study to explore the problems that arise when incorporating spatial flexibility into offset planning. Spatially flexible offsets may alleviate impacts more effectively than local offsets; however, the risks involved can be substantial. For our case study, there were inadequate data to make robust conclusions about the effectiveness and equivalence of distant habitat-based offsets for migratory shorebirds. Decisions around offset placement should be driven by the potential to achieve equivalent ecological outcomes; however, when considering more distant offsets, there is a need to evaluate the likely increased risks alongside the potential benefits. Although spatially flexible offsets have the potential to provide more cost-effective biodiversity outcomes and more cobenefits, our case study showed the difficulty of demonstrating these benefits in practice and the potential risks that need to be considered to ensure effective offset placement.

Estudio de los riesgos y beneficios de la flexibilidad en la ubicación de compensación de la biodiversidad en el estudio de caso de aves costeras migratorias Resumen Las compensaciones de la biodiversidad buscan contrabalancear el impacto residual que tiene el desarrollo sobre las especies y los ecosistemas. Los documentos guía recomiendan explícitamente que las acciones de estas compensaciones estén ubicadas cerca del lugar del impacto debido al potencial elevado de que haya condiciones ecológicas similares, aunque ya hay propuestas de una mayor flexibilidad espacial. Analizamos las circunstancias bajo las cuales las compensaciones alejadas del lugar de impacto tendrían mayor probabilidad de lograr pérdidas netas nulas o de proporcionar mejores resultados ecológicos que las compensaciones cercanas al área de impacto. Aplicamos un modelo gráfico para las aves costeras migratorias en el corredor aéreo asiático-australasiático del este como estudio de caso para estudiar los problemas que surgen cuando se incorpora la flexibilidad espacial a la planeación de las compensaciones. Las compensaciones espacialmente flexibles pueden mitigar los impactos más efectivamente que las compensaciones locales; sin embargo, los riesgos que esto involucra pueden ser considerables. En nuestro estudio de caso hubo datos insuficientes para concluir contundentemente sobre la efectividad y equivalencia de las compensaciones basadas en los hábitats distantes para las aves costeras migratorias. Las decisiones en torno a la ubicación de las compensaciones deberían estar impulsadas por el potencial para obtener resultados ecológicos equivalentes; sin embargo, al considerar compensaciones más alejadas, existe la necesidad de evaluar el incremento probable de riesgos junto a los beneficios potenciales. Aunque las compensaciones espacialmente flexibles tienen el potencial para proporcionar resultados más rentables y más beneficios colaterales, nuestro estudio de caso mostró la dificultad para demostrar estos beneficios en la práctica y los riesgos potenciales que necesitan considerarse para asegurar una ubicación efectiva de las compensaciones.

The projected degradation of subtropical coral assemblages by recurrent thermal stress.

Subtropical coral assemblages are threatened by similar extreme thermal stress events to their tropical counterparts. Yet, the mid- and long-term thermal stress responses of corals in subtropical environments remain largely unquantified, limiting our capacity to predict their future viability. The annual survival, growth and recruitment of 311 individual corals within the Solitary Islands Marine Park (Australia) was recorded over a 3-year period (2016-2018), including the 2015/2016 thermal stress event. These data were used to parameterise integral projection models quantifying the effect of thermal stress within a subtropical coral assemblage. Stochastic simulations were also applied to evaluate the implications of recurrent thermal stress scenarios predicted by four different Representative Concentration Pathways. We report differential shifts in population growth rates (λ) among coral populations during both stress and non-stress periods, confirming contrasting bleaching responses among taxa. However, even during non-stress periods, the observed dynamics for all taxa were unable to maintain current community composition, highlighting the need for external recruitment sources to support the community structure. Across all coral taxa, projected stochastic growth rates (λs ) were found to be lowest under higher emissions scenarios. Correspondingly, predicted increases in recurrent thermal stress regimes may accelerate the loss of coral coverage, species diversity and structural complexity within subtropical regions. We suggest that these trends are primarily due to the susceptibility of subtropical specialists and endemic species, such as Pocillopora aliciae, to thermal stress. Similarly, the viability of many tropical coral populations at higher latitudes is highly dependent on the persistence of up-current tropical systems. As such, the inherent dynamics of subtropical coral populations appear unable to support their future persistence under unprecedented thermal disturbance scenarios.

Refugia under threat: Mass bleaching of coral assemblages in high-latitude eastern Australia.

Environmental anomalies that trigger adverse physiological responses and mortality are occurring with increasing frequency due to climate change. At species' range peripheries, environmental anomalies are particularly concerning because species often exist at their environmental tolerance limits and may not be able to migrate to escape unfavourable conditions. Here, we investigated the bleaching response and mortality of 14 coral genera across high-latitude eastern Australia during a global heat stress event in 2016. We evaluated whether the severity of assemblage-scale and genus-level bleaching responses was associated with cumulative heat stress and/or local environmental history, including long-term mean temperatures during the hottest month of each year (SSTLTMAX ), and annual fluctuations in water temperature (SSTVAR ) and solar irradiance (PARZVAR ). The most severely-bleached genera included species that were either endemic to the region (Pocillopora aliciae) or rare in the tropics (e.g. Porites heronensis). Pocillopora spp., in particular, showed high rates of immediate mortality. Bleaching severity of Pocillopora was high where SSTLTMAX was low or PARZVAR was high, whereas bleaching severity of Porites was directly associated with cumulative heat stress. While many tropical Acropora species are extremely vulnerable to bleaching, the Acropora species common at high latitudes, such as A. glauca and A. solitaryensis, showed little incidence of bleaching and immediate mortality. Two other regionally-abundant genera, Goniastrea and Turbinaria, were also largely unaffected by the thermal anomaly. The severity of assemblage-scale bleaching responses was poorly explained by the environmental parameters we examined. Instead, the severity of assemblage-scale bleaching was associated with local differences in species abundance and taxon-specific bleaching responses. The marked taxonomic disparity in bleaching severity, coupled with high mortality of high-latitude endemics, point to climate-driven simplification of assemblage structures and progressive homogenisation of reef functions at these high-latitude locations.

Transcending data gaps: a framework to reduce inferential errors in ecological analyses.

The analysis of functional diversity (FD) has gained increasing importance due to its generality and utility in ecology. In particular, patterns in the spatial distribution and temporal change of FD are being used to predict locations and functional groups that are immediately vulnerable to global changes. A major impediment to the accurate measurement of FD is the pervasiveness of missing data in trait datasets. While such prevalent data gaps can engender misleading inferences in FD analyses, we currently lack any practical guide to handle missing data in trait datasets. Here, we identify significant mismatches between true FD and values derived from datasets that contain missing data. We demonstrate that imputing missing data with a phylogeny-informed approach reduces the risk of misinterpretation of FD patterns, and provides baseline information against which central questions in ecology can be evaluated.

Diffuse sclerosing variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma: major genetic alterations and prognostic implications.

AIM: Diffuse sclerosing variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (DSV-PTC) is an uncommon variant of PTC, and its prognostic significance remains controversial. The aim of this study was to investigate the major genetic alterations of DSV-PTC and their prognostic implications. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 37 patients with DSV-PTC who underwent thyroid surgery and had formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples. We tested for a panel of genetic alterations, including BRAF(V) (600E) , NRAS codon 61, HRAS codon 12/13/61 and KRAS codon 12/13 point mutations as well as RET/PTC1, RET/PTC3 and PAX8/PPARγ rearrangements using reverse transcription real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). All genetic alterations found on PCR were confirmed by Sanger sequencing. Associations between the identified genetic alterations and clinicopathological characteristics were evaluated. Among 37 cases of DSV-PTC, 17 were positive for RET/PTC1 (46%), six for RET/PTC3 (16%) and nine for BRAF(V) (600E) (24%). All mutations/rearrangements were mutually exclusive. The remaining five cases had none of the above genetic alterations. DSV-PTC with RET/PTC3 rearrangement was associated with advanced-stage disease, including T4 and distant metastasis (P < 0.05). Patients with RET/PTC3 showed a higher frequency of persistent disease (P < 0.01). In contrast, DSV-PTC with RET/PTC1 was associated with a higher prevalence of disease remission (P < 0.05) and coexistent Hashimoto's thyroiditis (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Taken together, RET/PTC rearrangement was the major genetic alteration seen in patients with DSV-PTC, and the RET/PTC3 rearrangement was associated with advanced stage at diagnosis and poor clinical outcome.

Cryptic diversity and spatial genetic variation in the coral Acropora tenuis and its endosymbionts across the Great Barrier Reef.

Genomic studies are uncovering extensive cryptic diversity within reef-building corals, suggesting that evolutionarily and ecologically relevant diversity is highly underestimated in the very organisms that structure coral reefs. Furthermore, endosymbiotic algae within coral host species can confer adaptive responses to environmental stress and may represent additional axes of coral genetic variation that are not constrained by taxonomic divergence of the cnidarian host. Here, we examine genetic variation in a common and widespread, reef-building coral, Acropora tenuis, and its associated endosymbiotic algae along the entire expanse of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). We use SNPs derived from genome-wide sequencing to characterize the cnidarian coral host and organelles from zooxanthellate endosymbionts (genus Cladocopium). We discover three distinct and sympatric genetic clusters of coral hosts, whose distributions appear associated with latitude and inshore-offshore reef position. Demographic modelling suggests that the divergence history of the three distinct host taxa ranges from 0.5 to 1.5 million years ago, preceding the GBR's formation, and has been characterized by low-to-moderate ongoing inter-taxon gene flow, consistent with occasional hybridization and introgression typifying coral evolution. Despite this differentiation in the cnidarian host, A. tenuis taxa share a common symbiont pool, dominated by the genus Cladocopium (Clade C). Cladocopium plastid diversity is not strongly associated with host identity but varies with reef location relative to shore: inshore colonies contain lower symbiont diversity on average but have greater differences between colonies as compared with symbiont communities from offshore colonies. Spatial genetic patterns of symbiont communities could reflect local selective pressures maintaining coral holobiont differentiation across an inshore-offshore environmental gradient. The strong influence of environment (but not host identity) on symbiont community composition supports the notion that symbiont community composition responds to habitat and may assist in the adaptation of corals to future environmental change.

Coral assemblages at higher latitudes favor short-term potential over long-term performance.

The persistent exposure of coral assemblages to more variable abiotic regimes is assumed to augment their resilience to future climatic variability. Yet, while the determinants of coral population resilience across species remain unknown, we are unable to predict the winners and losers across reef ecosystems exposed to increasingly variable conditions. Using annual surveys of 3171 coral individuals across Australia and Japan (2016-2019), we explore spatial variation across the short- and long-term dynamics of competitive, stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages to evaluate how abiotic variability mediates the structural composition of coral assemblages. We illustrate how, by promoting short-term potential over long-term performance, coral assemblages can reduce their vulnerability to stochastic environments. However, compared to stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages, competitive coral taxa display a reduced capacity for elevating their short-term potential. Accordingly, future climatic shifts threaten the structural complexity of coral assemblages in variable environments, emulating the degradation expected across global tropical reefs.