Optimizing tuberculosis treatment efficacy: Comparing the standard regimen with Moxifloxacin-containing regimens.

Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be one of the deadliest infectious diseases in the world, causing ~1.5 million deaths every year. The World Health Organization initiated an End TB Strategy that aims to reduce TB-related deaths in 2035 by 95%. Recent research goals have focused on discovering more effective and more patient-friendly antibiotic drug regimens to increase patient compliance and decrease emergence of resistant TB. Moxifloxacin is one promising antibiotic that may improve the current standard regimen by shortening treatment time. Clinical trials and in vivo mouse studies suggest that regimens containing moxifloxacin have better bactericidal activity. However, testing every possible combination regimen with moxifloxacin either in vivo or clinically is not feasible due to experimental and clinical limitations. To identify better regimens more systematically, we simulated pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics of various regimens (with and without moxifloxacin) to evaluate efficacies, and then compared our predictions to both clinical trials and nonhuman primate studies performed herein. We used GranSim, our well-established hybrid agent-based model that simulates granuloma formation and antibiotic treatment, for this task. In addition, we established a multiple-objective optimization pipeline using GranSim to discover optimized regimens based on treatment objectives of interest, i.e., minimizing total drug dosage and lowering time needed to sterilize granulomas. Our approach can efficiently test many regimens and successfully identify optimal regimens to inform pre-clinical studies or clinical trials and ultimately accelerate the TB regimen discovery process.

A virtual host model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection identifies early immune events as predictive of infection outcomes.

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), is one of the world's deadliest infectious diseases and remains a significant global health burden. TB disease and pathology can present clinically across a spectrum of outcomes, ranging from total sterilization of infection to active disease. Much remains unknown about the biology that drives an individual towards various clinical outcomes as it is challenging to experimentally address specific mechanisms driving clinical outcomes. Furthermore, it is unknown whether numbers of immune cells in the blood accurately reflect ongoing events during infection within human lungs. Herein, we utilize a systems biology approach by developing a whole-host model of the immune response to Mtb across multiple physiologic and time scales. This model, called HostSim, tracks events at the cellular, granuloma, organ, and host scale and represents the first whole-host, multi-scale model of the immune response following Mtb infection. We show that this model can capture various aspects of human and non-human primate TB disease and predict that biomarkers in the blood may only faithfully represent events in the lung at early time points after infection. We posit that HostSim, as a first step toward personalized digital twins in TB research, offers a powerful computational tool that can be used in concert with experimental approaches to understand and predict events about various aspects of TB disease and therapeutics.

IL-10 Impairs Local Immune Response in Lung Granulomas and Lymph Nodes during Early Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection.

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, continues to be a major global health problem. Lung granulomas are organized structures of host immune cells that function to contain the bacteria. Cytokine expression is a critical component of the protective immune response, but inappropriate cytokine expression can exacerbate TB. Although the importance of proinflammatory cytokines in controlling M. tuberculosis infection has been established, the effects of anti-inflammatory cytokines, such as IL-10, in TB are less well understood. To investigate the role of IL-10, we used an Ab to neutralize IL-10 in cynomolgus macaques during M. tuberculosis infection. Anti-IL-10-treated nonhuman primates had similar overall disease outcomes compared with untreated control nonhuman primates, but there were immunological changes in granulomas and lymph nodes from anti-IL-10-treated animals. There was less thoracic inflammation and increased cytokine production in lung granulomas and lymph nodes from IL-10-neutralized animals at 3-4 wk postinfection compared with control animals. At 8 wk postinfection, lung granulomas from IL-10-neutralized animals had reduced cytokine production but increased fibrosis relative to control animals. Although these immunological changes did not affect the overall disease burden during the first 8 wk of infection, we paired computational modeling to explore late infection dynamics. Our findings support that early changes occurring in the absence of IL-10 may lead to better bacterial control later during infection. These unique datasets provide insight into the contribution of IL-10 to the immunological balance necessary for granulomas to control bacterial burden and disease pathology in M. tuberculosis infection.

Dynamic balance of pro- and anti-inflammatory signals controls disease and limits pathology.

Immune responses to pathogens are complex and not well understood in many diseases, and this is especially true for infections by persistent pathogens. One mechanism that allows for long-term control of infection while also preventing an over-zealous inflammatory response from causing extensive tissue damage is for the immune system to balance pro- and anti-inflammatory cells and signals. This balance is dynamic and the immune system responds to cues from both host and pathogen, maintaining a steady state across multiple scales through continuous feedback. Identifying the signals, cells, cytokines, and other immune response factors that mediate this balance over time has been difficult using traditional research strategies. Computational modeling studies based on data from traditional systems can identify how this balance contributes to immunity. Here we provide evidence from both experimental and mathematical/computational studies to support the concept of a dynamic balance operating during persistent and other infection scenarios. We focus mainly on tuberculosis, currently the leading cause of death due to infectious disease in the world, and also provide evidence for other infections. A better understanding of the dynamically balanced immune response can help shape treatment strategies that utilize both drugs and host-directed therapies.

Systems biology predicts that fibrosis in tuberculous granulomas may arise through macrophage-to-myofibroblast transformation.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection causes tuberculosis (TB), a disease characterized by development of granulomas. Granulomas consist of activated immune cells that cluster together to limit bacterial growth and restrict dissemination. Control of the TB epidemic has been limited by lengthy drug regimens, antibiotic resistance, and lack of a robustly efficacious vaccine. Fibrosis commonly occurs during treatment and is associated with both positive and negative disease outcomes in TB but little is known about the processes that initiate fibrosis in granulomas. Human and nonhuman primate granulomas undergoing fibrosis can have spindle-shaped macrophages with fibroblast-like morphologies suggesting a relationship between macrophages, fibroblasts, and granuloma fibrosis. This relationship has been difficult to investigate because of the limited availability of human pathology samples, the time scale involved in human TB, and overlap between fibroblast and myeloid cell markers in tissues. To better understand the origins of fibrosis in TB, we used a computational model of TB granuloma biology to identify factors that drive fibrosis over the course of local disease progression. We validated the model with granulomas from nonhuman primates to delineate myeloid cells and lung-resident fibroblasts. Our results suggest that peripheral granuloma fibrosis, which is commonly observed, can arise through macrophage-to-myofibroblast transformation (MMT). Further, we hypothesize that MMT is induced in M1 macrophages through a sequential combination of inflammatory and anti-inflammatory signaling in granuloma macrophages. We predict that MMT may be a mechanism underlying granuloma-associated fibrosis and warrants further investigation into myeloid cells as drivers of fibrotic disease.

A computational model tracks whole-lung Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and predicts factors that inhibit dissemination.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the causative infectious agent of tuberculosis (TB), kills more individuals per year than any other infectious agent. Granulomas, the hallmark of Mtb infection, are complex structures that form in lungs, composed of immune cells surrounding bacteria, infected cells, and a caseous necrotic core. While granulomas serve to physically contain and immunologically restrain bacteria growth, some granulomas are unable to control Mtb growth, leading to bacteria and infected cells leaving the granuloma and disseminating, either resulting in additional granuloma formation (local or non-local) or spread to airways or lymph nodes. Dissemination is associated with development of active TB. It is challenging to experimentally address specific mechanisms driving dissemination from TB lung granulomas. Herein, we develop a novel hybrid multi-scale computational model, MultiGran, that tracks Mtb infection within multiple granulomas in an entire lung. MultiGran follows cells, cytokines, and bacterial populations within each lung granuloma throughout the course of infection and is calibrated to multiple non-human primate (NHP) cellular, granuloma, and whole-lung datasets. We show that MultiGran can recapitulate patterns of in vivo local and non-local dissemination, predict likelihood of dissemination, and predict a crucial role for multifunctional CD8+ T cells and macrophage dynamics for preventing dissemination.

A Framework for Network-Based Epidemiological Modeling of Tuberculosis Dynamics Using Synthetic Datasets.

We present a framework for discrete network-based modeling of TB epidemiology in US counties using publicly available synthetic datasets. We explore the dynamics of this modeling framework by simulating the hypothetical spread of disease over 2 years resulting from a single active infection in Washtenaw County, MI. We find that for sufficiently large transmission rates that active transmission outweighs reactivation, disease prevalence is sensitive to the contact weight assigned to transmissions between casual contacts (that is, contacts that do not share a household, workplace, school, or group quarter). Workplace and casual contacts contribute most to active disease transmission, while household, school, and group quarter contacts contribute relatively little. Stochastic features of the model result in significant uncertainty in the predicted number of infections over time, leading to challenges in model calibration and interpretation of model-based predictions. Finally, predicted infections were more localized by household location than would be expected if they were randomly distributed. This modeling framework can be refined in later work to study specific county and multi-county TB epidemics in the USA.

Evaluating vaccination strategies for tuberculosis in endemic and non-endemic settings.

According to the World Health Organization, tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from infectious disease worldwide (WHO, 2017). While there is no effective vaccine against adult pulmonary TB, more than a dozen vaccine candidates are in the clinical trial pipeline. These include both pre-exposure vaccines to prevent initial infections and post-exposure vaccines to prevent reactivation of latent disease. Many epidemiological models have been used to study TB, but most have not included a continuous age structure and the possibility of both pre- and post-exposure vaccination. Incorporating age-dependent death rates, disease properties, and social contact data allows for more realistic modeling of disease spread. We propose a continuous age-structured model for the epidemiology of tuberculosis with pre- and post-exposure vaccination. We use uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to make predictions about the efficacy of different vaccination strategies in a non-endemic setting (United States) and an endemic setting (Cambodia). In particular, we determine optimal age groups to target for pre-exposure and post-exposure vaccination in both settings. We find that the optimal age groups tend to be younger for Cambodia than for the US, and that post-exposure vaccination has a significantly larger effect than pre-exposure vaccination in the US.

Dose finding for new vaccines: The role for immunostimulation/immunodynamic modelling.

Current methods to optimize vaccine dose are purely empirically based, whereas in the drug development field, dosing determinations use far more advanced quantitative methodology to accelerate decision-making. Applying these established methods in the field of vaccine development may reduce the currently large clinical trial sample sizes, long time frames, high costs, and ultimately have a better potential to save lives. We propose the field of immunostimulation/immunodynamic (IS/ID) modelling, which aims to translate mathematical frameworks used for drug dosing towards optimizing vaccine dose decision-making. Analogous to Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling, the mathematical description of drug distribution (PK) and effect (PD) in host, IS/ID modelling approaches apply mathematical models to describe the underlying mechanisms by which the immune response is stimulated by vaccination (IS) and the resulting measured immune response dynamics (ID). To move IS/ID modelling forward, existing datasets and further data on vaccine allometry and dose-dependent dynamics need to be generated and collate, requiring a collaborative environment with input from academia, industry, regulators, governmental and non-governmental agencies to share modelling expertise, and connect modellers to vaccine data.

Low Levels of T Cell Exhaustion in Tuberculous Lung Granulomas.

The hallmarks of pulmonary Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection are lung granulomas. These organized structures are composed of host immune cells whose purpose is to contain or clear infection, creating a complex hub of immune and bacterial cell activity, as well as limiting pathology in the lungs. Yet, given cellular activity and the potential for frequent interactions between host immune cells and M. tuberculosis-infected cells, we observed a surprisingly low quantity of cytokine-producing T cells (<10% of granuloma T cells) in our recent study of M. tuberculosis infection within nonhuman primate (NHP) granulomas. Various mechanisms could limit T cell function, and one hypothesis is T cell exhaustion. T cell exhaustion is proposed to result from continual antigen stimulation, inducing them to enter a state characterized by low cytokine production, low proliferation, and expression of a series of inhibitory receptors, the most common being PD-1, LAG-3, and CTLA-4. In this work, we characterized the expression of inhibitory receptors on T cells and the functionality of these cells in tuberculosis (TB) lung granulomas. We then used these experimental data to calibrate and inform an agent-based computational model that captures environmental, cellular, and bacterial dynamics within granulomas in lungs during M. tuberculosis infection. Together, the results of the modeling and the experimental work suggest that T cell exhaustion alone is not responsible for the low quantity of M. tuberculosis-responsive T cells observed within TB granulomas and that the lack of exhaustion is likely an intrinsic property of granuloma structure.

Comparing efficacies of moxifloxacin, levofloxacin and gatifloxacin in tuberculosis granulomas using a multi-scale systems pharmacology approach.

Granulomas are complex lung lesions that are the hallmark of tuberculosis (TB). Understanding antibiotic dynamics within lung granulomas will be vital to improving and shortening the long course of TB treatment. Three fluoroquinolones (FQs) are commonly prescribed as part of multi-drug resistant TB therapy: moxifloxacin (MXF), levofloxacin (LVX) or gatifloxacin (GFX). To date, insufficient data are available to support selection of one FQ over another, or to show that these drugs are clinically equivalent. To predict the efficacy of MXF, LVX and GFX at a single granuloma level, we integrate computational modeling with experimental datasets into a single mechanistic framework, GranSim. GranSim is a hybrid agent-based computational model that simulates granuloma formation and function, FQ plasma and tissue pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics and is based on extensive in vitro and in vivo data. We treat in silico granulomas with recommended daily doses of each FQ and compare efficacy by multiple metrics: bacterial load, sterilization rates, early bactericidal activity and efficacy under non-compliance and treatment interruption. GranSim reproduces in vivo plasma pharmacokinetics, spatial and temporal tissue pharmacokinetics and in vitro pharmacodynamics of these FQs. We predict that MXF kills intracellular bacteria more quickly than LVX and GFX due in part to a higher cellular accumulation ratio. We also show that all three FQs struggle to sterilize non-replicating bacteria residing in caseum. This is due to modest drug concentrations inside caseum and high inhibitory concentrations for this bacterial subpopulation. MXF and LVX have higher granuloma sterilization rates compared to GFX; and MXF performs better in a simulated non-compliance or treatment interruption scenario. We conclude that MXF has a small but potentially clinically significant advantage over LVX, as well as LVX over GFX. We illustrate how a systems pharmacology approach combining experimental and computational methods can guide antibiotic selection for TB.

Variability in tuberculosis granuloma T cell responses exists, but a balance of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines is associated with sterilization.

Lung granulomas are the pathologic hallmark of tuberculosis (TB). T cells are a major cellular component of TB lung granulomas and are known to play an important role in containment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection. We used cynomolgus macaques, a non-human primate model that recapitulates human TB with clinically active disease, latent infection or early infection, to understand functional characteristics and dynamics of T cells in individual granulomas. We sought to correlate T cell cytokine response and bacterial burden of each granuloma, as well as granuloma and systemic responses in individual animals. Our results support that each granuloma within an individual host is independent with respect to total cell numbers, proportion of T cells, pattern of cytokine response, and bacterial burden. The spectrum of these components overlaps greatly amongst animals with different clinical status, indicating that a diversity of granulomas exists within an individual host. On average only about 8% of T cells from granulomas respond with cytokine production after stimulation with Mtb specific antigens, and few "multi-functional" T cells were observed. However, granulomas were found to be "multi-functional" with respect to the combinations of functional T cells that were identified among lesions from individual animals. Although the responses generally overlapped, sterile granulomas had modestly higher frequencies of T cells making IL-17, TNF and any of T-1 (IFN-γ, IL-2, or TNF) and/or T-17 (IL-17) cytokines than non-sterile granulomas. An inverse correlation was observed between bacterial burden with TNF and T-1/T-17 responses in individual granulomas, and a combinatorial analysis of pair-wise cytokine responses indicated that granulomas with T cells producing both pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines (e.g. IL-10 and IL-17) were associated with clearance of Mtb. Preliminary evaluation suggests that systemic responses in the blood do not accurately reflect local T cell responses within granulomas.

Identifying mechanisms driving formation of granuloma-associated fibrosis during Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), is a pulmonary pathogen of major global concern. A key feature of Mtb infection in primates is the formation of granulomas, dense cellular structures surrounding infected lung tissue. These structures serve as the main site of host-pathogen interaction in TB, and thus to effectively treat TB we must clarify mechanisms of granuloma formation and their function in disease. Fibrotic granulomas are associated with both good and bad disease outcomes. Fibrosis can serve to isolate infected tissue from healthy tissue, but it can also cause difficulty breathing as it leaves scars. Little is known about fibrosis in TB, and data from non-human primates is just beginning to clarify the picture. This work focuses on constructing a hybrid multi-scale model of fibrotic granuloma formation, in order to identify mechanisms driving development of fibrosis in Mtb infected lungs. We combine dynamics of molecular, cellular, and tissue scale models from previously published studies to characterize the formation of two common sub-types of fibrotic granulomas: peripherally fibrotic, with a cuff of collagen surrounding granulomas, and centrally fibrotic, with collagen throughout granulomas. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, along with large simulation sets, enable us to identify mechanisms differentiating centrally versus peripherally fibrotic granulomas. These findings suggest that heterogeneous cytokine environments exist within granulomas and may be responsible for driving tissue scale morphologies. Using this model we are primed to better understand the complex structure of granulomas, a necessity for developing successful treatments for TB.

Computational and Empirical Studies Predict Mycobacterium tuberculosis-Specific T Cells as a Biomarker for Infection Outcome.

Identifying biomarkers for tuberculosis (TB) is an ongoing challenge in developing immunological correlates of infection outcome and protection. Biomarker discovery is also necessary for aiding design and testing of new treatments and vaccines. To effectively predict biomarkers for infection progression in any disease, including TB, large amounts of experimental data are required to reach statistical power and make accurate predictions. We took a two-pronged approach using both experimental and computational modeling to address this problem. We first collected 200 blood samples over a 2- year period from 28 non-human primates (NHP) infected with a low dose of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We identified T cells and the cytokines that they were producing (single and multiple) from each sample along with monkey status and infection progression data. Machine learning techniques were used to interrogate the experimental NHP datasets without identifying any potential TB biomarker. In parallel, we used our extensive novel NHP datasets to build and calibrate a multi-organ computational model that combines what is occurring at the site of infection (e.g., lung) at a single granuloma scale with blood level readouts that can be tracked in monkeys and humans. We then generated a large in silico repository of in silico granulomas coupled to lymph node and blood dynamics and developed an in silico tool to scale granuloma level results to a full host scale to identify what best predicts Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection outcomes. The analysis of in silico blood measures identifies Mtb-specific frequencies of effector T cell phenotypes at various time points post infection as promising indicators of infection outcome. We emphasize that pairing wetlab and computational approaches holds great promise to accelerate TB biomarker discovery.

Computational modeling predicts IL-10 control of lesion sterilization by balancing early host immunity-mediated antimicrobial responses with caseation during mycobacterium tuberculosis infection.

Although almost a third of the world's population is infected with the bacterial pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis, our understanding of the functions of many immune factors involved in fighting infection is limited. Determining the role of the immunosuppressive cytokine IL-10 at the level of the granuloma has proven difficult because of lesional heterogeneity and the limitations of animal models. In this study, we take an in silico approach and, through a series of virtual experiments, we predict several novel roles for IL-10 in tuberculosis granulomas: 1) decreased levels of IL-10 lead to increased numbers of sterile lesions, but at the cost of early increased caseation; 2) small increases in early antimicrobial activity cause this increased lesion sterility; 3) IL-10 produced by activated macrophages is a major mediator of early antimicrobial activity and early host-induced caseation; and 4) increasing levels of infected macrophage derived IL-10 promotes bacterial persistence by limiting the early antimicrobial response and preventing lesion sterilization. Our findings, currently only accessible using an in silico approach, suggest that IL-10 at the individual granuloma scale is a critical regulator of lesion outcome. These predictions suggest IL-10-related mechanisms that could be used as adjunctive therapies during tuberculosis.

Multiscale Model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection Maps Metabolite and Gene Perturbations to Granuloma Sterilization Predictions.

Granulomas are a hallmark of tuberculosis. Inside granulomas, the pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis may enter a metabolically inactive state that is less susceptible to antibiotics. Understanding M. tuberculosis metabolism within granulomas could contribute to reducing the lengthy treatment required for tuberculosis and provide additional targets for new drugs. Two key adaptations of M. tuberculosis are a nonreplicating phenotype and accumulation of lipid inclusions in response to hypoxic conditions. To explore how these adaptations influence granuloma-scale outcomes in vivo, we present a multiscale in silico model of granuloma formation in tuberculosis. The model comprises host immunity, M. tuberculosis metabolism, M. tuberculosis growth adaptation to hypoxia, and nutrient diffusion. We calibrated our model to in vivo data from nonhuman primates and rabbits and apply the model to predict M. tuberculosis population dynamics and heterogeneity within granulomas. We found that bacterial populations are highly dynamic throughout infection in response to changing oxygen levels and host immunity pressures. Our results indicate that a nonreplicating phenotype, but not lipid inclusion formation, is important for long-term M. tuberculosis survival in granulomas. We used virtual M. tuberculosis knockouts to predict the impact of both metabolic enzyme inhibitors and metabolic pathways exploited to overcome inhibition. Results indicate that knockouts whose growth rates are below ∼66% of the wild-type growth rate in a culture medium featuring lipid as the only carbon source are unable to sustain infections in granulomas. By mapping metabolite- and gene-scale perturbations to granuloma-scale outcomes and predicting mechanisms of sterilization, our method provides a powerful tool for hypothesis testing and guiding experimental searches for novel antituberculosis interventions.

Macrophage polarization drives granuloma outcome during Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), induces formation of granulomas, structures in which immune cells and bacteria colocalize. Macrophages are among the most abundant cell types in granulomas and have been shown to serve as both critical bactericidal cells and targets for M. tuberculosis infection and proliferation throughout the course of infection. Very little is known about how these processes are regulated, what controls macrophage microenvironment-specific polarization and plasticity, or why some granulomas control bacteria and others permit bacterial dissemination. We take a computational-biology approach to investigate mechanisms that drive macrophage polarization, function, and bacterial control in granulomas. We define a "macrophage polarization ratio" as a metric to understand how cytokine signaling translates into polarization of single macrophages in a granuloma, which in turn modulates cellular functions, including antimicrobial activity and cytokine production. Ultimately, we extend this macrophage ratio to the tissue scale and define a "granuloma polarization ratio" describing mean polarization measures for entire granulomas. Here we coupled experimental data from nonhuman primate TB granulomas to our computational model, and we predict two novel and testable hypotheses regarding macrophage profiles in TB outcomes. First, the temporal dynamics of granuloma polarization ratios are predictive of granuloma outcome. Second, stable necrotic granulomas with low CFU counts and limited inflammation are characterized by short NF-κB signal activation intervals. These results suggest that the dynamics of NF-κB signaling is a viable therapeutic target to promote M1 polarization early during infection and to improve outcome.

Intracellular bacillary burden reflects a burst size for Mycobacterium tuberculosis in vivo.

We previously reported that Mycobacterium tuberculosis triggers macrophage necrosis in vitro at a threshold intracellular load of ~25 bacilli. This suggests a model for tuberculosis where bacilli invading lung macrophages at low multiplicity of infection proliferate to burst size and spread to naïve phagocytes for repeated cycles of replication and cytolysis. The current study evaluated that model in vivo, an environment significantly more complex than in vitro culture. In the lungs of mice infected with M. tuberculosis by aerosol we observed three distinct mononuclear leukocyte populations (CD11b(-) CD11c(+/hi), CD11b(+/lo) CD11c(lo/-), CD11b(+/hi) CD11c(+/hi)) and neutrophils hosting bacilli. Four weeks after aerosol challenge, CD11b(+/hi) CD11c(+/hi) mononuclear cells and neutrophils were the predominant hosts for M. tuberculosis while CD11b(+/lo) CD11c(lo/-) cells assumed that role by ten weeks. Alveolar macrophages (CD11b(-) CD11c(+/hi)) were a minority infected cell type at both time points. The burst size model predicts that individual lung phagocytes would harbor a range of bacillary loads with most containing few bacilli, a smaller proportion containing many bacilli, and few or none exceeding a burst size load. Bacterial load per cell was enumerated in lung monocytic cells and neutrophils at time points after aerosol challenge of wild type and interferon-γ null mice. The resulting data fulfilled those predictions, suggesting a median in vivo burst size in the range of 20 to 40 bacilli for monocytic cells. Most heavily burdened monocytic cells were nonviable, with morphological features similar to those observed after high multiplicity challenge in vitro: nuclear condensation without fragmentation and disintegration of cell membranes without apoptotic vesicle formation. Neutrophils had a narrow range and lower peak bacillary burden than monocytic cells and some exhibited cell death with release of extracellular neutrophil traps. Our studies suggest that burst size cytolysis is a major cause of infection-induced mononuclear cell death in tuberculosis.

A computational tool integrating host immunity with antibiotic dynamics to study tuberculosis treatment.

While active tuberculosis (TB) is a treatable disease, many complex factors prevent its global elimination. Part of the difficulty in developing optimal therapies is the large design space of antibiotic doses, regimens and combinations. Computational models that capture the spatial and temporal dynamics of antibiotics at the site of infection can aid in reducing the design space of costly and time-consuming animal pre-clinical and human clinical trials. The site of infection in TB is the granuloma, a collection of immune cells and bacteria that form in the lung, and new data suggest that penetration of drugs throughout granulomas is problematic. Here we integrate our computational model of granuloma formation and function with models for plasma pharmacokinetics, lung tissue pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics for two first line anti-TB antibiotics. The integrated model is calibrated to animal data. We make four predictions. First, antibiotics are frequently below effective concentrations inside granulomas, leading to bacterial growth between doses and contributing to the long treatment periods required for TB. Second, antibiotic concentration gradients form within granulomas, with lower concentrations toward their centers. Third, during antibiotic treatment, bacterial subpopulations are similar for INH and RIF treatment: mostly intracellular with extracellular bacteria located in areas non-permissive for replication (hypoxic areas), presenting a slowly increasing target population over time. Finally, we find that on an individual granuloma basis, pre-treatment infection severity (including bacterial burden, host cell activation and host cell death) is predictive of treatment outcome.

Effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis control in Arkansas.

Comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis (TB) control is still lacking. In this study, we use a computational model, calibrated against notification data from Arkansas during the period 2001-2011, that reproduces independent data on key features of TB transmission and epidemiology. The model estimates that the Arkansas contact investigations program has avoided 18.6% (12.1-25.9%) of TB cases and 23.7% (16.4-30.6%) of TB deaths that would have occurred during 2001-2014 if passive diagnosis alone were implemented. If contacts of sputum smear-negative cases had not been included in the program, the percentage reduction would have been remarkably lower. In addition, we predict that achieving national targets for performance indicators of contact investigation programs has strong potential to further reduce TB transmission and burden. However, contact investigations are expected to have limited effectiveness on avoiding reactivation cases of latent infections over the next 60 years.