Homozygosity for a missense variant in COMP gene associated with severe pseudoachondroplasia.

The phenotypic spectrum associated with heterozygous mutations in cartilage oligomeric matrix protein gene (COMP) range from a mild form of multiple epiphyseal dysplasia (MED) to pseudoachondroplasia (PSACH). However, the phenotypic effect from biallelic COMP variants is unclear. We investigated a large consanguineous Pakistani family with a severe form of PSACH in 2 individuals. Another 14 family members presented with a mild PSACH phenotype similar to MED. Using exome sequencing and subsequent segregation analysis, we identified homozygosity for a COMP missense variant [c.1423G>A; p.(D475N)] in the 2 severely affected individuals, whereas family members with the mild PSACH phenotype were heterozygous. Our observations show for the first time that a biallelic COMP variant may be associated with pronounced and widespread skeletal malformations suggesting an additive effect of the 2 mutated alleles.

The gene encoding ribosomal protein S19 is mutated in Diamond-Blackfan anaemia.

Diamond-Blackfan anaemia (DBA) is a constitutional erythroblastopenia characterized by absent or decreased erythroid precursors. The disease, previously mapped to human chromosome 19q13, is frequently associated with a variety of malformations. To identify the gene involved in DBA, we cloned the chromosome 19q13 breakpoint in a patient with a reciprocal X;19 chromosome translocation. The breakpoint occurred in the gene encoding ribosomal protein S19. Furthermore, we identified mutations in RPS19 in 10 of 40 unrelated DBA patients, including nonsense, frameshift, splice site and missense mutations, as well as two intragenic deletions. These mutations are associated with clinical features that suggest a function for RPS19 in erythropoiesis and embryogenesis.

A phosphodiesterase 4 inhibitor, roflumilast N-oxide, inhibits human lung fibroblast functions in vitro.

The PDE4 inhibitor roflumilast mitigates bleomycin-induced lung fibrotic remodeling in rodents. In the current study it was explored whether roflumilast N-oxide, the active metabolite of roflumilast influences functions of cultured lung fibroblasts. Cells of the human foetal lung fibroblast strain GM06114 were stimulated with TNF-alpha (5 ng ml(-1)) and cell surface ICAM-1 and eotaxin release were assessed. [methyl-(3)H] thymidine incorporation was measured following stimulation with bFGF (10 ng ml(-1)). alpha-Smooth muscle actin (protein), CTGF (mRNA) and fibronectin (mRNA) were determined secondary to TGFbeta1 (1 ng ml(-1)). In the presence of PGE(2) (1 nM), roflumilast N-oxide reduced TNF-alpha-induced ICAM-1 and eotaxin by about 70% and >90% with half-maximum inhibition at 0.9 nM and 0.5 nM, respectively. Roflumilast N-oxide also attenuated [methyl-(3)H] thymidine incorporation secondary to bFGF by about 75% with half-maximum inhibition at 0.7 nM when cells were co-incubated with IL-1beta (10 pg ml(-1)). In the presence of this cytokine roflumilast N-oxide (1 microM) diminished TGFbeta1-induced expression of alpha-smooth muscle actin and transcripts of CTGF and fibronectin. In addition, IL-1beta up-regulated PDE4 activity in the lung fibroblasts. Taken together, these findings indicate that roflumilast N-oxide directly targets human lung fibroblasts, which may at least partially explain the efficacy of roflumilast to mitigate a pulmonary fibrotic response in vivo.

Congenital ichthyosis: mutations in ichthyin are associated with specific structural abnormalities in the granular layer of epidermis.

BACKGROUND: Autosomal recessive congenital ichthyosis (ARCI) is a heterogeneous group of skin disorders. Several mutant genes have been identified in ARCI, but the association between genotype and phenotype is poorly understood. METHODS: To investigate genotype-phenotype correlations in ARCI, we selected 27 patients from 18 families with specific ultrastructural features of the epidermis. The characteristic findings using electron microscopy (EM) were abnormal lamellar bodies and elongated membranes in the stratum granulosum, classified as ARCI EM type III. DNA samples from a subset of affected individuals were screened for homozygous genomic regions, and a candidate gene region was identified on chromosome 5q33. The region coincides with the ichthyin gene, previously reported as mutated in ARCI. RESULTS: Mutation screening of ichthyin revealed missense or splice-site mutations in affected members from 16 of 18 (89%) families with characteristics of ARCI EM type III. In a control group of 18 patients with ARCI without EM findings consistent with type III, we identified one patient homozygous for a missense mutation in ichthyin. DISCUSSION: Our findings indicate a strong association between ultrastructural abnormalities in the granular layer of epidermis and ichthyin mutations. The results also suggest that EM provides a tool for specific diagnosis in a genetically homogenous subgroup of patients with ARCI.

Roflumilast inhibits leukocyte-endothelial cell interactions, expression of adhesion molecules and microvascular permeability.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The present study addressed the effects of the investigational PDE4 inhibitor roflumilast on leukocyte-endothelial cell interactions and endothelial permeability in vivo and in vitro. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: In vivo, intravital video-microscopy was used to determine effects of roflumilast p.o. on leukocyte-endothelial cell interactions and microvascular permeability in rat mesenteric venules. In vitro, the effects of roflumilast N-oxide, the active metabolite of roflumilast in humans, and other PDE4 inhibitors on neutrophil adhesion to tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha)-activated human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC), E-selectin expression and thrombin-induced endothelial permeability was evaluated. Flow cytometry was used to determine the effect of roflumilast on N-formyl-methionyl-leucyl-phenylalanine (fMLP)-induced CD11b upregulation on human neutrophils. KEY RESULTS: In vivo, roflumilast, given 1 h before lipopolysaccharide (LPS), dose-dependently reduced leukocyte-endothelial cell interactions in rat mesenteric postcapillary venules. It also diminished histamine-induced microvascular permeability. Immunohistochemical analyses revealed that roflumilast prevented LPS-induced endothelial P- and E-selectin expression. In vitro, roflumilast N-oxide concentration-dependently suppressed neutrophil adhesion to TNFalpha-activated HUVEC and CD11b expression on fMLP-stimulated neutrophils. It also reduced TNFalpha-induced E-selectin expression on HUVEC, when PDE3 activity was blocked. HUVEC permeability elicited by thrombin was concentration-dependently suppressed by roflumilast N-oxide. While roflumilast N-oxide was as potent as roflumilast at inhibiting stimulated endothelial cell and neutrophil functions, both compounds were significantly more potent than the structurally unrelated PDE4 inhibitors, rolipram or cilomilast. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: These findings further support earlier observations on the inhibition of inflammatory cell influx and protein extravasation by roflumilast in vivo.

Stability of dissolved and soluble Fe(II) in shelf sediment pore waters and release to an oxic water column.

Shelf sediments underlying temperate and oxic waters of the Celtic Sea (NW European Shelf) were found to have shallow oxygen penetrations depths from late spring to late summer (2.2-5.8 mm below seafloor) with the shallowest during/after the spring-bloom (mid-April to mid-May) when the organic carbon content was highest. Sediment porewater dissolved iron (dFe, <0.15 µm) mainly (>85%) consisted of Fe(II) and gradually increased from 0.4 to 15 µM at the sediment surface to ~100-170 µM at about 6 cm depth. During the late spring this Fe(II) was found to be mainly present as soluble Fe(II) (>85% sFe, <0.02 µm). Sub-surface dFe(II) maxima were enriched in light isotopes (δ56Fe -2.0 to -1.5‰), which is attributed to dissimilatory iron reduction (DIR) during the bacterial decomposition of organic matter. As porewater Fe(II) was oxidised to insoluble Fe(III) in the surface sediment layer, residual Fe(II) was further enriched in light isotopes (down to -3.0‰). Ferrozine-reactive Fe(II) was found in surface porewaters and in overlying core top waters, and was highest in the late spring period. Shipboard experiments showed that depletion of bottom water oxygen in late spring can lead to a substantial release of Fe(II). Reoxygenation of bottom water caused this Fe(II) to be rapidly lost from solution, but residual dFe(II) and dFe(III) remained (12 and 33 nM) after >7 h. Iron(II) oxidation experiments in core top and bottom waters also showed removal from solution but at rates up to 5-times slower than predicted from theoretical reaction kinetics. These data imply the presence of ligands capable of complexing Fe(II) and supressing oxidation. The lower oxidation rate allows more time for the diffusion of Fe(II) from the sediments into the overlying water column. Modelling indicates significant diffusive fluxes of Fe(II) (on the order of 23-31 µmol m-2 day-1) are possible during late spring when oxygen penetration depths are shallow, and pore water Fe(II) concentrations are highest. In the water column this stabilised Fe(II) will gradually be oxidised and become part of the dFe(III) pool. Thus oxic continental shelves can supply dFe to the water column, which is enhanced during a small period of the year after phytoplankton bloom events when organic matter is transferred to the seafloor. This input is based on conservative assumptions for solute exchange (diffusion-reaction), whereas (bio)physical advection and resuspension events are likely to accelerate these solute exchanges in shelf-seas.

Comparing benthic biogeochemistry at a sandy and a muddy site in the Celtic Sea using a model and observations.

Results from a 1D setup of the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) biogeochemical model were compared with new observations collected under the UK Shelf Seas Biogeochemistry (SSB) programme to assess model performance and clarify elements of shelf-sea benthic biogeochemistry and carbon cycling. Observations from two contrasting sites (muddy and sandy) in the Celtic Sea in otherwise comparable hydrographic conditions were considered, with the focus on the benthic system. A standard model parameterisation with site-specific light and nutrient adjustments was used, along with modifications to the within-seabed diffusivity to accommodate the modelling of permeable (sandy) sediments. Differences between modelled and observed quantities of organic carbon in the bed were interpreted to suggest that a large part (>90%) of the observed benthic organic carbon is biologically relatively inactive. Evidence on the rate at which this inactive fraction is produced will constitute important information to quantify offshore carbon sequestration. Total oxygen uptake and oxic layer depths were within the range of the measured values. Modelled depth average pore water concentrations of ammonium, phosphate and silicate were typically 5-20% of observed values at the muddy site due to an underestimate of concentrations associated with the deeper sediment layers. Model agreement for these nutrients was better at the sandy site, which had lower pore water concentrations, especially deeper in the sediment. Comparison of pore water nitrate with observations had added uncertainty, as the results from process studies at the sites indicated the dominance of the anammox pathway for nitrogen removal; a pathway that is not included in the model. Macrofaunal biomasses were overestimated, although a model run with increased macrofaunal background mortality rates decreased macrofaunal biomass and improved agreement with observations. The decrease in macrofaunal biomass was compensated by an increase in meiofaunal biomass such that total oxygen demand remained within the observed range. The permeable sediment modification reproduced some of the observed behaviour of oxygen penetration depth at the sandy site. It is suggested that future development in ERSEM benthic modelling should focus on: (1) mixing and degradation rates of benthic organic matter, (2) validation of benthic faunal biomass against large scale spatial datasets, (3) incorporation of anammox in the benthic nitrogen cycle, and (4) further developments to represent permeable sediment processes.

An approach for the identification of exemplar sites for scaling up targeted field observations of benthic biogeochemistry in heterogeneous environments.

Continental shelf sediments are globally important for biogeochemical activity. Quantification of shelf-scale stocks and fluxes of carbon and nutrients requires the extrapolation of observations made at limited points in space and time. The procedure for selecting exemplar sites to form the basis of this up-scaling is discussed in relation to a UK-funded research programme investigating biogeochemistry in shelf seas. A three-step selection process is proposed in which (1) a target area representative of UK shelf sediment heterogeneity is selected, (2) the target area is assessed for spatial heterogeneity in sediment and habitat type, bed and water column structure and hydrodynamic forcing, and (3) study sites are selected within this target area encompassing the range of spatial heterogeneity required to address key scientific questions regarding shelf scale biogeochemistry, and minimise confounding variables. This led to the selection of four sites within the Celtic Sea that are significantly different in terms of their sediment, bed structure, and macrofaunal, meiofaunal and microbial community structures and diversity, but have minimal variations in water depth, tidal and wave magnitudes and directions, temperature and salinity. They form the basis of a research cruise programme of observation, sampling and experimentation encompassing the spring bloom cycle. Typical variation in key biogeochemical, sediment, biological and hydrodynamic parameters over a pre to post bloom period are presented, with a discussion of anthropogenic influences in the region. This methodology ensures the best likelihood of site-specific work being useful for up-scaling activities, increasing our understanding of benthic biogeochemistry at the UK-shelf scale.

Multicenter outcome study of cancer patients admitted to the intensive care unit: a probability of mortality model.

PURPOSE: To develop prospectively and validate a model for probability of hospital survival at admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) of patients with malignancy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was an inception cohort study in the setting of four ICUs of academic medical centers in the United States. Defined continuous and categorical variables were collected on consecutive patients with cancer admitted to the ICU. A preliminary model was developed from 1,483 patients and then validated on an additional 230 patients. Multiple logistic regression modeling was used to develop the models and subsequently evaluated by goodness-of-fit and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The main outcome measure was hospital survival after ICU admission. RESULTS: The observed hospital mortality rate was 42%. Continuous variables used in the ICU admission model are PaO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, and days of hospitalization pre-ICU. Categorical entries include presence of intracranial mass effect, allogeneic bone marrow transplantation, recurrent or progressive cancer, albumin less than 2.5 g/dL, bilirubin > or = 2 mg/dL, Glasgow Coma Score less than 6, prothrombin time greater than 15 seconds, blood urea nitrogen (BUN) greater than 50 mg/dL, intubation, performance status before hospitalization, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). The P values for the fit of the preliminary and validation models are .939 and .314, respectively, and the areas under the ROC curves are .812 and .802. CONCLUSION: We report a disease-specific multivariable logistic regression model to estimate the probability of hospital mortality in a cohort of critically ill cancer patients admitted to the ICU. The model consists of 16 unambiguous and readily available variables. This model should move the discussion regarding appropriate use of ICU resources forward. Additional validation in a community hospital setting is warranted.

Enhanced bleeding with cefoxitin or moxalactam. Statistical analysis within a defined population of 1493 patients.

Most cases of beta-lactam-associated coagulopathy occur in patients with other risk factors. This study analyzed temporally related clinical bleeding events in 1493 patients who received one antibiotic for at least three days. Univariate and multivariate analyses controlled for condition variables (nutritional status, renal, hepatic, or hematologic dysfunction, intensive care unit stay) and treatment variables (use of antiplatelet agents, anticoagulants, vitamin K, antitumor chemotherapy or antiulcer therapy, steroids) that could have been associated with bleeding independently. Rates of bleeding ranged from 0% (chloramphenicol sodium succinate, vancomycin hydrochloride, erythromycin lactobionate) to 8.2% (cefoxitin) to 22.2% (moxalactam disodium). Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed that only moxalactam (odds ratio, 9.9) and cefoxitin (odds ratio, 2.1) exhibited significantly higher likelihoods of bleeding than other agents. This study statistically confirms increased risk of bleeding with moxalactam, heretofore reported only anecdotally. Cefoxitin may carry risks greater than previously believed.

Improvement of myocardial function by trifluoperazine, a calmodulin antagonist, after acute coronary artery occlusion and coronary revascularization.

Activation of an intracellular calcium-calmodulin complex may play an important role in myocardial injury induced by ischemia and reperfusion. Trifluoperazine, a calmodulin antagonist, was used before ischemia to enhance myocardial preservation by preventing intracellular calcium accumulation. The experimental model used an isolated in situ pig heart (19 control animals and 15 trifluoperazine-treated animals) subjected to occlusion of the left anterior descending coronary artery for 60 minutes followed by 60 minutes of hypothermic potassium crystalloid cardioplegic arrest and 60 minutes of reperfusion. Myocardial segmental function measured by ultrasonic crystals showed that active systolic segment shortening was abolished in the distribution of the left anterior descending artery after 60 minutes of occlusion irrespective of the treatment, whereas that not in the distribution of the left anterior descending artery increased by about 15% in both groups of animals. Restoration of systolic segment shortening in the distribution of the left anterior descending artery 60 minutes after reperfusion was 12% and 42% of baseline levels in untreated and trifluoperazine-treated animals, respectively (p less than 0.01). This improvement in segmental function by trifluoperazine was reflected in significantly (p less than 0.05) better global myocardial contractility and compliance and in significantly (p less than 0.01) greater total coronary blood flow and myocardial oxygen consumption. Trifluoperazine also increased myocardial creatine phosphate content in the distribution of the left anterior descending artery (p less than 0.01) during reperfusion, and creatine kinase release was reduced (p less than 0.05). Our results suggest that trifluoperazine improved regional myocardial function after acute occlusion of the left anterior descending artery and reperfusion and that global cardiac performance was thereby improved. The beneficial effects of trifluoperazine may be exerted by prevention of myocardial injury associated with the calcium-calmodulin complex in ischemic and reperfused myocardium.

Outcome prediction for individual intensive care patients: useful, misused, or abused?

Probabilities of hospital mortality provide meaningful information in many contexts, such as in discussions of patient prognosis by intensive care physicians, in patient stratification for analysis of clinical trial data by researchers, and in hospital reimbursement analysis by insurers. Use of probabilities as binary predictors based on a cut point can be misleading for making treatment decisions for individual patients, however, even when model performance is good overall. Alternative models for estimating severity of illness in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, while demonstrating good agreement for describing patients in the aggregate, are shown to differ considerably for individual patients. This suggests that identifying patients unlikely to benefit from ICU care by using models must be approached with considerable caution.

A survey of Massachusetts physicians' smoking intervention practices.

Attitudes toward smoking intervention, and the intervention practices of 65 residents, 51 attending physicians, and 292 community physicians in central and western Massachusetts were assessed through a mailed questionnaire. Nearly all physicians reported that they obtained information on the smoking status of new patients and told smokers to quit. Proportionately fewer physicians, however, reported that they counseled their patients on how to stop smoking; those who did, did so for relatively brief periods of time. After differences in physician age and smoking status were controlled for, residents were significantly more likely than attending physicians to counsel their patients on how to stop smoking, but were also more likely (than attending and community physicians) to recommend or refer their patients to formal smoking cessation programs. A small percentage of the physicians responding (3%-16%) reported that they were prepared to counsel smokers, but most reported that information on where to refer patients, smoking cessation techniques, and skills training would be of great value. The results of this survey suggest practical differences between residents and attending and community physicians in approaching patients who smoke and in attitudes toward the need for additional skills and financial and organizational assistance.

Heavy smoking among a sample of employed women.

Understanding the phenomenon of heavy smoking among women and factors related to it is of considerable public health importance. Whereas lighter smokers have been more successful in their cessation attempts, the percentage of smokers who smoke more than 25 cigarettes per day has increased in recent years. This article examines the hypothesis that, compared to lighter smokers, female heavy smokers will report more responsiveness to internal cues to smoke, less interest in quitting, more difficulty with previous cessation attempts, more uncertainty about cessation strategies, and more concern about weight gain as a result of quitting. We collected data in 1984 through a self-administered survey completed by 874 women employed as nurses in acute care, chronic care, and home care nursing in Worcester, Massachusetts; we base our analyses on data collected from 158 light and moderate smokers and 67 heavy smokers. Our findings suggest that, compared to lighter smokers, heavy smokers may depend more on nicotine and are likely to respond to a broader array of cues to smoke, factors that appear to contribute to heavy smokers' greater difficulties with quitting. These female heavy smokers are just as likely as lighter smokers to have made previous attempts to quit and want to quit just as much. Major barriers to quitting for female heavy smokers include a lack of confidence in their ability to quit, insufficient tools to succeed with cessation attempts, and fear that weight gain will accompany quitting.

Cenani-Lenz syndrome restricted to limb and kidney anomalies associated with a novel LRP4 missense mutation.

Cenani-Lenz syndrome (CLS) is a rare autosomal recessive developmental disorder of the limbs. The disorder is characterized by complete syndactyly with metacarpal fusions and/or oligodactyly sometimes accompanied by radioulnar synostosis. The clinical expression is variable and kidney agenesis/hypoplasia, craniofacial dysmorphism and teeth abnormalities are frequent features as well as lower limb involvement. CLS was recently associated with mutations in the low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 4 (LRP4) gene and dysregulated canonical WNT signaling. We have identified a large consanguineous Pakistani pedigree with 9 members affected by CLS. The affected individuals present with a consistent expression of the syndrome restricted to the limbs and kidneys. Symptoms from the lower limb are mild or absent and there were no radioulnar synostosis or craniofacial involvement. Genetic analysis using autozygosity mapping and sequencing revealed homozygosity for a novel missense mutation c.2858T > C (p.L953P) in the LRP4 gene. The mutation is located in a region encoding the highly conserved low-density lipoprotein receptor repeat class B domain of LRP4. Our findings add to the genotype-phenotype correlations in CLS and support kidney anomalies as a frequent associated feature.

A founder mutation for ichthyosis prematurity syndrome restricted to 76 kb by haplotype association.

Autosomal recessive congenital ichthyosis (ARCI) is a group of keratinisation disorders that includes the ichthyosis prematurity syndrome (IPS). IPS is rare and almost exclusively present in a restricted region in the middle of Norway and Sweden, which indicates a founder effect for the disorder. We recently reported linkage of IPS to chromosome 9q34, and we present here the subsequent fine-mapping of this region with known and novel microsatellite markers as well as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Allelic association, evaluated with Fisher's exact test and P (excess), was used to refine the IPS haplotype to approximately 1.6 Mb. On the basis of the average length of the haplotype in IPS patients, we calculated the age of a founder mutation to approximately 1,900 years. The IPS haplotype contains a core region of 76 kb consisting of four marker alleles shared by 97.7% of the chromosomes associated with IPS. This region spans four known genes, all of which are expressed in mature epidermal cells. We present the results from the analysis of these four genes and their corresponding transcripts in normal and patient-derived samples.

Sample size requirements for studies estimating odds ratios or relative risks.

This paper presents formulae for determining the number of subjects necessary, in either a case-control or a cohort study, to estimate the odds ratio or relative risk, respectively, to within a selected percentage (epsilon) of the true population value with some specified probability. This approach differs somewhat from previous comparable work that estimated the log odds ratio within a stated fixed distance rather than as a percentage of the actual odds ratio. Comparable development for relative risk has not previously appeared in the literature. These formulae provide guidelines for determination of study size that does not depend on hypothesis testing considerations.

A retrospective-cohort study of occupational exposure to hexavalent chromium.

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to examine the risk of mortality, cancer, and other adverse health outcomes, at the United States' largest chromate chemicals manufacturing facility in Castle Hayne, North Carolina. This facility, built in 1971, was designed to reduce the high levels of chromium exposure found at most older facilities. Exposure assessment was based on analysis of more than 5,000 personal breathing zone samples collected over a 15-year period. A questionnaire was used to collect relevant occupational, medical, smoking, and other information from current and former employees. Analysis of the cohort's mortality experience found no substantial departures from that expected based on external comparisons, although evidence of a healthy worker effect was observed. Internal cohort analyses were limited by relatively small numbers; however, a subgroup of employees who transferred from older facilities was found to have higher risks of mortality (odds ratio = 1.27 for each 3 years of previous exposure; 90% confidence interval (CI) = 1.07-1.51) and cancer (odds ratio = 1.22 for each 3 years of previous exposure; 90% CI = 1.03-1.45). While this subgroup represented only 11% of the individuals in this study, they accounted for 46% (6/13) of all observed cancers (excluding skin cancers) and 60% (3/5) of lung cancers. There was no increased risk of mortality or cancer among employees who worked only at the newer facility. As an etiologic research study, the results are limited by the relatively small number of subjects and short follow-up; nevertheless, the findings can be used to design and implement a prospective surveillance system for monitoring the health of chromate production workers.

Mortality Probability Models (MPM II) based on an international cohort of intensive care unit patients.

OBJECTIVE: To revise and update models in the Mortality Probability Model (MPM II) system to estimate the probability of hospital mortality among 19,124 intensive care unit (ICU) patients that can be used for quality assessment within and among ICUs. DESIGN AND SETTING: Models developed and validated on consecutive admissions to adult medical and surgical ICUs in 12 countries. PATIENTS: A total of 12,610 patients for model development, 6514 patients for model validation. Patients younger than 18 years and burn, coronary care, and cardiac surgery patients were excluded. OUTCOME MEASURE: Vital status at hospital discharge. RESULTS: The admission model, MPM0, contains 15 readily obtainable variables. In developmental and validation samples it calibrated well (goodness-of-fit tests: P = .623 and P = .327, respectively, where a high P value represents good fit between observed and expected values) and discriminated well (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.837 and 0.824, respectively). The 24-hour model, MPM24 (developed on 10,357 patients still in the ICU at 24 hours), contains five of the admission variables and eight additional variables easily ascertained at 24 hours. It also calibrated well (P = .764 and P = .231 in the developmental and validation samples, respectively) and discriminated well (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.844 and 0.836 in the developmental and validation samples, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Among severity systems for intensive care patients, the MPM0 is the only model available for use at ICU admission. Both MPM0 and MPM24 are useful research tools and provide important clinical information when used alone or together.