Sharp Second-Order Pointwise Asymptotics for Lossless Compression with Side Information.

The problem of determining the best achievable performance of arbitrary lossless compression algorithms is examined, when correlated side information is available at both the encoder and decoder. For arbitrary source-side information pairs, the conditional information density is shown to provide a sharp asymptotic lower bound for the description lengths achieved by an arbitrary sequence of compressors. This implies that for ergodic source-side information pairs, the conditional entropy rate is the best achievable asymptotic lower bound to the rate, not just in expectation but with probability one. Under appropriate mixing conditions, a central limit theorem and a law of the iterated logarithm are proved, describing the inevitable fluctuations of the second-order asymptotically best possible rate. An idealised version of Lempel-Ziv coding with side information is shown to be universally first- and second-order asymptotically optimal, under the same conditions. These results are in part based on a new almost-sure invariance principle for the conditional information density, which may be of independent interest.

Evaluating the effects of second-dose vaccine-delay policies in European countries: A simulation study based on data from Greece.

The results of a simulation-based evaluation of several policies for vaccine rollout are reported, particularly focusing on the effects of delaying the second dose of two-dose vaccines. In the presence of limited vaccine supply, the specific policy choice is a pressing issue for several countries worldwide, and the adopted course of action will affect the extension or easing of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the next months. We employ a suitably generalised, age-structure, stochastic SEIR (Susceptible → Exposed → Infectious → Removed) epidemic model that can accommodate quantitative descriptions of the major effects resulting from distinct vaccination strategies. The different rates of social contacts among distinct age-groups (as well as some other model parameters) are informed by a recent survey conducted in Greece, but the conclusions are much more widely applicable. The results are summarised and evaluated in terms of the total number of deaths and infections as well as life years lost. The optimal strategy is found to be one based on fully vaccinating the elderly/at risk as quickly as possible, while extending the time-interval between the two vaccine doses to 12 weeks for all individuals below 75 years old, in agreement with epidemic theory which suggests targeting a combination of susceptibility and infectivity. This policy, which is similar to the approaches adopted in the UK and in Canada, is found to be effective in reducing deaths and life years lost in the period while vaccination is still being carried out.

Identifying statistical dependence in genomic sequences via mutual information estimates.

Questions of understanding and quantifying the representation and amount of information in organisms have become a central part of biological research, as they potentially hold the key to fundamental advances. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of information-theoretic tools for the task of identifying segments of biomolecules (DNA or RNA) that are statistically correlated. We develop a precise and reliable methodology, based on the notion of mutual information, for finding and extracting statistical as well as structural dependencies. A simple threshold function is defined, and its use in quantifying the level of significance of dependencies between biological segments is explored. These tools are used in two specific applications. First, they are used for the identification of correlations between different parts of the maize zmSRp32 gene. There, we find significant dependencies between the 5' untranslated region in zmSRp32 and its alternatively spliced exons. This observation may indicate the presence of as-yet unknown alternative splicing mechanisms or structural scaffolds. Second, using data from the FBI's combined DNA index system (CODIS), we demonstrate that our approach is particularly well suited for the problem of discovering short tandem repeats-an application of importance in genetic profiling.