Fruit Flies: Challenges and Opportunities to Stem the Tide of Global Invasions.

Global trade in fresh fruit and vegetables, intensification of human mobility, and climate change facilitate fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) invasions. Life-history traits, environmental stress response, dispersal stress, and novel genetic admixtures contribute to their establishment and spread. Tephritids are among the most frequently intercepted taxa at ports of entry. In some countries, supported by the rules-based trade framework, a remarkable amount of biosecurity effort is being arrayed against the range expansion of tephritids. Despite this effort, fruit flies continue to arrive in new jurisdictions, sometimes triggering expensive eradication responses. Surprisingly, scant attention has been paid to biosecurity in the recent discourse about new multilateral trade agreements. Much of the available literature on managing tephritid invasions is focused on a limited number of charismatic (historically high-profile) species, and the generality of many patterns remains speculative.

Current and future potential distributions of Helicoverpa punctigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae): is this the next FAW?

Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), the native budworm, is an important highly polyphagous pest that has caused serious damage on a wide variety of crops in Australia. In Australia, its range overlaps that of its congener, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), a notorious invasive pest globally. We used CLIMEX, a bioclimatic niche modelling software package, to estimate the potential geographical distribution of H. punctigera under current and future climates (A1B scenario). Under both current and future climate conditions, the model indicates that H. punctigera could establish throughout the tropics and subtropics. Comparing the potential distributions under each climate scenario revealed that in the future its potential distribution is likely to shift poleward and into higher altitudes, into areas that are currently too cold as observed in the South of Brazil, Europe, North America, South East Asia, and South Pacific Islands including New Zealand. The projected potential distribution can inform pre- and post-border biosecurity strategies for the management of this pest in each country.

Malice at the Gates of Eden: current and future distribution of Agrilus mali threatening wild and domestic apples.

The apple buprestid, Agrilus mali Matsumura, that was widespread in north-eastern China, was accidently introduced to the wild apple forest ecosystem in mountainous areas of Xinjiang, China. This invasive beetle feeds on domesticated apples and many species of Malus and presents a serious threat to ancestral apple germplasm sources and apple production worldwide. Estimating the potential area at risk of colonization by A. mali is crucial for instigating appropriate preventative management strategies, especially under global warming. We developed a CLIMEX model of A. mali to project this pest's potential distribution under current and future climatic scenarios in 2100 using CSIRO-Mk 3.0 GCM running the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Under current climate, A. mali could potentially invade neighbouring central Asia and eventually the mid-latitude temperate zone, and some subtropical areas and Pampas Steppe in the Southern Hemisphere. This potential distribution encompasses wild apples species, the ancestral germplasm for domesticated apples. With global warming, the potential distribution shifts to higher latitudes, with the potential range expanding slightly, though the overall suitability could decline in both hemispheres. In 2100, the length of the growing season of this pest in the mid-latitude temperature zone could increase by 1-2 weeks, with higher growth rates in most sites compared with current climate in mid-latitudes, at least in China. Our work highlights the need for strategies to prevent the spread of this pest, managing the threats to wild apples in Tian Shan Mountain forests in Central Asia, and commercial apple production globally. We discuss practical management tactics to reduce the spread of this pest and mitigate its impacts.

A general trait-based modelling framework for revealing patterns of airborne fungal dispersal threats to agriculture and native flora.

Fungal plant pathogens are of economic and ecological importance to global agriculture and natural ecosystems. Long-distance atmospheric dispersal of fungal spores (LAD) can pose threats to agricultural and native vegetation lands. An understanding of such patterns of fungal spore dispersal and invasion pathways can provide valuable insights into plant protection. Spore traits affect their dispersal abilities. We propose a general trait-based framework for modelling LAD to reveal dispersal patterns and pathways, and assess subsequent threats of arrival (TOA) quantitatively in the context of biosecurity. To illustrate the framework, we present a study of Australia and its surrounding land masses. The overall dispersal pattern covered almost the entire continent of Australia. Fungal spores in the size class of 10 and 20 µm (aerodynamic diameter) posed the greatest TOA. Our study shows the effects of morphological traits on these potential TOA, and how they varied between source regions, size classes, and seasons. Our framework revealed spore dispersal patterns and pathways. It also facilitates comparisons of spatio-temporal dispersal dynamics among fungal classes, gaining insights into atmospheric long-distance dispersal of fungi as a whole, and provides a basis for assessing fungal pest threats in potential source regions based on easily measured spore characteristics.

Parameter estimation for functional-structural plant models when data are scarce: using multiple patterns for rejecting unsuitable parameter sets.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Functional-structural plant (FSP) models provide insights into the complex interactions between plant architecture and underlying developmental mechanisms. However, parameter estimation of FSP models remains challenging. We therefore used pattern-oriented modelling (POM) to test whether parameterization of FSP models can be made more efficient, systematic and powerful. With POM, a set of weak patterns is used to determine uncertain parameter values, instead of measuring them in experiments or observations, which often is infeasible. METHODS: We used an existing FSP model of avocado (Persea americana 'Hass') and tested whether POM parameterization would converge to an existing manual parameterization. The model was run for 10 000 parameter sets and model outputs were compared with verification patterns. Each verification pattern served as a filter for rejecting unrealistic parameter sets. The model was then validated by running it with the surviving parameter sets that passed all filters and then comparing their pooled model outputs with additional validation patterns that were not used for parameterization. KEY RESULTS: POM calibration led to 22 surviving parameter sets. Within these sets, most individual parameters varied over a large range. One of the resulting sets was similar to the manually parameterized set. Using the entire suite of surviving parameter sets, the model successfully predicted all validation patterns. However, two of the surviving parameter sets could not make the model predict all validation patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest strong interactions among model parameters and their corresponding processes, respectively. Using all surviving parameter sets takes these interactions into account fully, thereby improving model performance regarding validation and model output uncertainty. We conclude that POM calibration allows FSP models to be developed in a timely manner without having to rely on field or laboratory experiments, or on cumbersome manual parameterization. POM also increases the predictive power of FSP models.

Nut bush pesticide limits: urgent need for a comprehensive strategy to address current and emerging insect pests and insecticide options in the Australian macadamia industry.

In Australia, macadamia orchards are attacked by four main insect pest groups. Management and control of three of these key pests currently relies on broad-spectrum insecticides whose long-term future is questionable. Of the 23 insecticides registered for use in macadamia in Australia, 19 face issues affecting their availability and 12 are presently not approved in the EU, the USA or Canada. These international markets may refuse produce that does not adhere to their own insecticide use standards, hence Australian produce may be excluded from market access. Many of the potential replacement integrated pest management methods of pest control are generally considered less effective by the industry and have not been adopted. There are 17 insect pest groups identified by the industry, any of which have potential to become major problems if broad-spectrum insecticide options become unavailable. Thirteen pest groups need urgent attention as they are at risk of losing current effective control methods, and no replacement solutions have yet been developed. The lag period for research and development to identify new chemical and biological control solutions means there is now an urgent need for the macadamia industry to craft a strategy for sustainable pest management for each pest. Critically, this industry strategy needs to address the vulnerabilities identified in this paper, identify potential solutions for any cases of market failure and consider funding mechanisms to address these gaps. On economic and sustainability grounds, potential biological control options should be explored, especially in cases where insecticide control options are vulnerable. © 2024 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Global change and adaptive biosecurity: managing current and emerging Aleurocanthus woglumi threats to Europe.

Global climate changes undermine the effectiveness of 'set and forget' phytosanitary regulations. Uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emission profiles render it impossible to accurately forecast future climate, thus limiting the ability to make long-term biosecurity policy decisions. Agile adaptive biosecurity frameworks are necessary to address these climatic uncertainties and to effectively manage current and emerging threats. This paper provides opinions on these issues and presents a case study focusing on the threats posed by Aleurocanthus woglumi (citrus blackfly) to Europe. It delves into the biology of the species, its preferred hosts, and how climate change could affect its spread. Utilizing a bioclimatic niche model, the paper estimates the potential distribution of A. woglumi in Europe under recent historical and medium-term future conditions, revealing a potential expansion of its range into higher elevations and more northern regions by the year 2050. The main aim is to leverage the results to showcase the system's sensitivity to likely emission scenarios, essentially stress-testing for potential emerging threats to biosecurity policies and phytosanitary regulations. The results underscore the significance of considering global change factors in pest risk assessment and phytosanitary regulations for effective risk mitigation. Consequently, adaptive biosecurity measures are essential, encompassing horizon scanning, enhanced targeted surveillance, periodic updates of risk assessments, and adjustments to regulations. For instance, biosecurity risk management could involve establishing a set of trigger conditions to prompt updates of risk assessments, such as identifying a zone where the confirmed establishment of a pest signifies a significant change in the pest risk profile. For jurisdictions containing areas modeled as being climatically suitable under historical climates or future climate scenarios, we caution against importing untreated host materials from regions that are likely to become suitable habitats for A. woglumi in the future. Moreover, it is important to consider both present and future climate change scenarios when making decisions to effectively address the threats posed by invasive species. In the case of highly impactful invasives, investing in preemptive biological control measures may prove to be a prudent choice.

Evidence that recent climatic changes have expanded the potential geographical range of the Mediterranean fruit fly.

The species distributions migration poleward and into higher altitudes in a warming climate is especially concerning for economically important insect pest species, as their introduction can potentially occur in places previously considered unsuitable for year-round survival. We explore the expansion of the climatically suitable areas for a horticultural pest, the Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) Ceratitis capitata (Diptera, Tephritidae), with an emphasis on Europe and California. We reviewed and refined a published CLIMEX model for C. capitata, taking into consideration new records in marginal locations, with a particular focus on Europe. To assess the model fit and to aid in interpreting the meaning of the new European distribution records, we used a time series climate dataset to explore the temporal patterns of climate suitability for C. capitata from 1970 to 2019. At selected bellwether sites in Europe, we found statistically significant trends in increasing climate suitability, as well as a substantial northward expansion in the modelled potential range. In California, we also found a significant trend of northward and altitudinal expansion of areas suitable for C. capitata establishment. These results provide further evidence of climate change impacts on species distributions and the need for innovative responses to increased invasion threats.

Bean Leaf Beetle (Ootheca spp.) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) Management via Planting Timing and Insecticides.

Bean leaf beetles (Ootheca spp.) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) are one of Africa's most important pests of the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). Roots, leaves, floral parts, and young pods are all attacked, leading to a considerable loss in grain yield. In Uganda, there are no comprehensive prescribed management strategies for bean leaf beetles, but farmers typically try to control the pest by delaying bean crop sowing, and to a lesser extent, using insecticides. Although farmers have consistently implemented the two approaches, there is no information on the effects of the approaches in Uganda. To assess the impact of planting timing and insecticide spray regimes on bean leaf beetle populations, concomitant foliar damage, and grain yield, we set up trials in three agro-ecological zones with known presence of the beetles during the second rainy season of 2016 (2016) and the first rainy season of 2017 (2017). The first planting, coinciding with early planting, was conducted within one week after the onset of rains. The second planting, coinciding with mid planting, followed two weeks later, while the third planting, considered late planting in this study, was conducted one month after the second planting. A foliar application of cypermethrin commencing at 7 days after emergence (DAE), 14 DAE, 21 DAE, 28 DAE, and 35 DAE; a soil drench of imidacloprid at planting combined with a foliar spray starting at 7 DAE; and an untreated control were among the insecticide spray regimes evaluated. Higher bean leaf beetle abundance was recorded from mid-planting, while higher foliar damage was recorded from late planting in two of the three agro-ecological zones. However, higher marketable grain yield was recorded from early planting in all agro-ecological zones, suggesting that delayed planting may not be beneficial. Insecticide application reduced foliar damage and increased marketable grain yield, with a combination of soil drench and foliar spray resulting in much less foliar damage and, as a result, higher grain yield. However, this did not result in economic benefits. Furthermore, marketable grain yield was higher when insecticide spray regimes were combined with early planting in all agro-ecological zones during both seasons. Our findings suggest that the common bean should be planted early and that the control of the bean leaf beetle should target both the adults and the juvenile stages in the soil. Therefore, there is a need for farmers to be able to access less-expensive soil treatments.

Global population genomic signature of Spodoptera frugiperda (fall armyworm) supports complex introduction events across the Old World.

Native to the Americas, the invasive Spodoptera frugiperda (fall armyworm; FAW) was reported in West Africa in 2016, followed by its chronological detection across the Old World and the hypothesis of an eastward Asia expansion. We explored population genomic signatures of American and Old World FAW and identified 12 maternal mitochondrial DNA genome lineages across the invasive range. 870 high-quality nuclear single nucleotide polymorphic DNA markers identified five distinct New World population clusters, broadly reflecting FAW native geographical ranges and the absence of host-plant preferences. We identified unique admixed Old World populations, and admixed and non-admixed Asian FAW individuals, all of which suggested multiple introductions underpinning the pest's global spread. Directional gene flow from the East into eastern Africa was also detected, in contrast to the west-to-east spread hypothesis. Our study demonstrated the potential of population genomic approaches via international partnership to address global emerging pest threats and biosecurity challenges.

Potential global distribution of Aleurocanthus woglumi considering climate change and irrigation.

Citrus blackfly, Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), is an important agricultural quarantine pest, causing substantial economic losses to citrus and many other cultivated crops. Aleurocanthus woglumi is found in tropical and subtropical regions but is presently unknown in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. We used CLIMEX to model the potential distribution of A. woglumi under an historical climate scenario (centred on 1995), including a spatially explicit irrigation scenario. We found that A. woglumi could potentially invade the Mediterranean Basin, and south-east Asia, including Australia. There is potential for it to invade most of sub-Saharan Africa. Irrigation is revealed as an important habitat factor affecting the potential distribution of A. woglumi, increasing its potential range by 53% in Asia. Under a future climate scenario for 2050, its potential distribution increased across all continents except Africa, where potential range expansion due to relaxation of cold stresses was limited, and was offset by range decrease due to lethal heat or dry stress. As global climates warm, Europe is likely to face a substantial increase in the area at risk of establishment by A. woglumi (almost doubling under the 2050 irrigation scenario). The biosecurity threat from A. woglumi is significant in current citrus production areas and poses a challenge to biosecurity managers and risk analysts.

Modelling the Potential Geographic Distribution of Two Trissolcus Species for the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug, Halyomorpha halys.

The brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is native to northeast Asia. It was accidentally introduced to Europe and North America, where it has become a key pest, feeding on many important crops. Previous eco-climatic niche modelling indicates that H. halys could expand its distribution vastly, and numerous border interceptions of this pest in many countries, including Australia and New Zealand, indicate that it would be prudent to prepare for its eventual arrival. Similar niche modelling was used to assess the potential distribution of Trissolcus japonicus (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae), the key parasitoid of H. halys in China. Trissolcus mitsukurii (Ashmead) is one of the main parasitoids of H. halys in Japan. It is known to have existed in Australia since the early 20th century and was also specifically introduced to Australia in the 1960s, and it has now also invaded Italy. We used CLIMEX to model the climatic niche of T. mitsukurii to estimate its global potential distribution. We found that T. mitsukurii should be able to significantly expand its range globally, and that there is a significant degree of overlap in the projected ranges of T. mitsukurii, T. japonicus and H. halys. From a biological control perspective, this implies that the two Trissolcus species may be able to help mitigate the potential impacts of H. halys.

The Influence of Weather on the Occurrence of Aflatoxin B1 in Harvested Maize from Kenya and Tanzania.

A study was conducted using maize samples collected from different agroecological zones of Kenya (n = 471) and Tanzania (n = 100) during the 2013 maize harvest season to estimate a relationship between aflatoxin B1 concentration and occurrence with weather conditions during the growing season. The toxins were analysed by the ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) method. Aflatoxin B1 incidence ranged between 0-100% of samples in different regions with an average value of 29.4% and aflatoxin concentrations of up to 6075 µg/kg recorded in one sample. Several regression techniques were explored. Random forests achieved the highest overall accuracy of 80%, while the accuracy of a logistic regression model was 65%. Low rainfall occurring during the early stage of the maize plant maturing combined with high temperatures leading up to full maturity provide warning signs of aflatoxin contamination. Risk maps for the two countries for the 2013 season were generated using both random forests and logistic regression models.

Distribution and Relative Abundance of Bean Leaf Beetles (Ootheca spp.) (Insecta: Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in Uganda.

Bean leaf beetles (Ootheca spp.) (Insecta: Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) are one of Africa's most destructive pests of common bean and other leguminous crops. The beetles are widely distributed in Africa where they are estimated to cause annual crop yield losses of 116,400 tons of crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite their importance, little is known about the distribution, relative abundance and damage caused by bean leaf beetles in Uganda. As a result, the development of effective management methods has been hampered. We conducted surveys in six key Ugandan agro-ecological zones to determine the species distribution and relative abundance of bean leaf beetles. Findings indicate that leaf beetles belonging to 12 genera are present, including members of the genera Afrophthalma Medvedev, 1980, Buphonella Jacoby, 1903, Chrysochrus Chevrolat in Dejean, 1836, Diacantha Dejean, 1845, Exosoma Jacoby, 1903, Lamprocopa Hincks, 1949, Lema Fabricius, 1798, Nisotra Baly, 1864, Neobarombiella Bolz and Wagner, 2012, Ootheca Dejean, 1935, Parasbecesta Laboissière, 1940, and Plagiodera Dejean, 1835. We identified only three species belonging to the genus Ootheca: O. mutabilis, O. proteus, and O. orientalis. Seventy percent of all the beetles collected were O. mutabilis and these were present in all agro-ecological zones studied. The Northern Moist Farmlands (21.9%), West Nile Farmlands (12.9%), Central Wooded Savanna (4.4%) and Southern and Eastern Lake Kyoga Basin (1.4%) were the only agro-ecological zones where O. proteus was found. Only one specimen of O. orientalis was found at a single site in the Central Wooded Savanna. The Northern Moist Farmlands had a significantly (p < 0.05) higher bean leaf beetle density than the West Nile Farmlands and Southwestern Highlands. Similarly, the Northern Moist Farmlands had the highest beetle foliar damage per plant (1.15 ± 0.05), while the Southwestern Highlands had the lowest (0.03 ± 0.02). We provide the first information on Ootheca species distribution, abundance and damage in Uganda. Our findings provide a foundation for assessing the importance of Ootheca spp. as common bean pests in Uganda.

The potential global distribution of the papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus, a polyphagous pest.

BACKGROUND: The papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus, is a highly polyphagous invasive pest that affects more than 200 plants, many of which are of economic importance. We modelled the potential distribution of P. marginatus using CLIMEX, a process-oriented, climate-based niche model. We combined this model with spatial data on irrigation and cropping patterns to increase the real-world applicability of the model. RESULTS: The resulting model agreed with known distribution points for this pest and with broad areas where P. marginatus has been reported, but for which no GPS data were available. Our model highlights the potential expansion of P. marginatus into novel areas in Central and East Africa, as well as further expansion in Central America and Asia, as these areas are highly climatically suitable, and have large expanses of suitable crop hosts. It also highlights areas, such as the central and eastern states of the USA as well as the western provinces of China, that are suitable for seasonal invasions of P. marginatus. CONCLUSION: Our results offer refined resolution on areas with high potential for invasion by P. marginatus. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry.

Daily mapping of Australian Plague Locust abundance.

Locust population outbreaks have been a longstanding problem for Australian agriculture. Since its inception in the mid-1970s, The Australian Plague Locust Commission (APLC) is responsible for monitoring, forecasting and controlling populations of several locust pest species across inland eastern Australia (ca. two million km2). Ground surveys are typically targeted according to prevailing environmental conditions. However, due to the sheer size of the region and limited resources, such surveys remain sparse. Here we develop daily time-step statistical models of populations of Chortoicetes terminifera (Australian plague locust) that can used to predict abundances when observations are lacking, plus uncertainties. We firstly identified key environmental covariates of locust abundance, then examined their relationship with C. terminifera populations by interpreting the responses of Generalized Additive Models (GAM). We also illustrate how estimates of C. terminifera abundance plus uncertainties can be visualized across the region. Our results support earlier studies, specifically, populations peak in grasslands with high productivity, and decline rapidly under very hot and dry conditions. We also identified new relationships, specifically, a strong positive effect of vapour pressure and sunlight, and a negative effect of soil sand content on C. terminifera abundance. Our modelling tool may assist future APLC management and surveillance effort.

Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases.

Projected climate changes are thought to promote emerging infectious diseases, though to date, evidence linking climate changes and such diseases in plants has not been available. Cassava is perhaps the most important crop in Africa for smallholder farmers. Since the late 1990's there have been reports from East and Central Africa of pandemics of begomoviruses in cassava linked to high abundances of whitefly species within the Bemisia tabaci complex. We used CLIMEX, a process-oriented climatic niche model, to explore if this pandemic was linked to recent historical climatic changes. The climatic niche model was corroborated with independent observed field abundance of B. tabaci in Uganda over a 13-year time-series, and with the probability of occurrence of B. tabaci over 2 years across the African study area. Throughout a 39-year climate time-series spanning the period during which the pandemics emerged, the modelled climatic conditions for B. tabaci improved significantly in the areas where the pandemics had been reported and were constant or decreased elsewhere. This is the first reported case where observed historical climate changes have been attributed to the increase in abundance of an insect pest, contributing to a crop disease pandemic.

Black Sigatoka in bananas: Ecoclimatic suitability and disease pressure assessments.

Black leaf streak disease, or black Sigatoka, is caused by the fungus Pseudocercospora fijiensis, and has been identified as a major constraint to global production of banana and plantain. We fitted a climatic niche model (CLIMEX) for P. fijiensis to gain an understanding of the patterns of climate suitability, and hence hazard from this disease. We then calibrated the climate suitability patterns against the results of an expert elicitation of disease pressure patterns. We found a moderately strong non-linear relationship between modelled climate suitability for P.°fijiensis and the expert ratings for disease pressure. The strength of the relationship provides a cross-validation between the CLIMEX model and the expert elicitation process. The bulk of global banana production experiences high potential threat from P. fijiensis, and the higher yielding areas for banana and plantain production are at greatest threat. By explicitly considering the role of irrigation we have been able to identify how strategic irrigation could be used to support banana production in areas that are at low risk from P. fijiensis.

The potential distribution of cassava mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti), a threat to food security for the poor.

The cassava mealybug is a clear and present threat to the food security and livelihoods of some of the world's most impoverished citizens. Niche models, such as CLIMEX, are useful tools to indicate where and when such threats may extend, and can assist with planning for biosecurity and the management of pest invasions. They can also contribute to bioeconomic analyses that underpin the allocation of resources to alleviate poverty. Because species can invade and establish in areas with climates that are different from those that are found in their native range, it is essential to define robust range-limiting mechanisms in niche models. To avoid spurious results when applied to novel climates, it is necessary to employ cross-validation techniques spanning different knowledge domains (e.g., distribution data, experimental results, phenological observations). We build upon and update a CLIMEX niche model by Parsa et al. (PloS ONE 7: e47675), correcting inconsistent parameters and re-fitting it based on a careful examination of geographical distribution data and relevant literature. Further, we consider the role of irrigation, the known distribution of cassava production and a targeted review of satellite imagery to refine, validate and interpret our model and results. In so doing, we bring new insights into the potential spread of this invasive insect, enabling us to identify potential bio-security threats and biological control opportunities. The fit of the revised model is improved, particularly in relation to the wet and dry limits to establishment, and the parameter values are biologically plausible and accord with published scientific literature.

Including irrigation in niche modelling of the invasive wasp Vespula germanica (Fabricius) improves model fit to predict potential for further spread.

The European wasp, Vespula germanica (Fabricius) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), is of Palaearctic origin, being native to Europe, northern Africa and Asia, and introduced into North America, Chile, Argentina, Iceland, Ascension Island, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. Due to its polyphagous nature and scavenging behaviour, V. germanica threatens agriculture and silviculture, and negatively affects biodiversity, while its aggressive nature and venomous sting pose a health risk to humans. In areas with warmer winters and longer summers, queens and workers can survive the winter months, leading to the build-up of large nests during the following season; thereby increasing the risk posed by this species. To prevent or prepare for such unwanted impacts it is important to know where the wasp may be able to establish, either through natural spread or through introduction as a result of human transport. Distribution data from Argentina and Australia, and seasonal phenology data from Argentina were used to determine the potential distribution of V. germanica using CLIMEX modelling. In contrast to previous models, the influence of irrigation on its distribution was also investigated. Under a natural rainfall scenario, the model showed similarities to previous models. When irrigation is applied, dry stress is alleviated, leading to larger areas modelled climatically suitable compared with previous models, which provided a better fit with the actual distribution of the species. The main areas at risk of invasion by V. germanica include western USA, Mexico, small areas in Central America and in the north-western region of South America, eastern Brazil, western Russia, north-western China, Japan, the Mediterranean coastal regions of North Africa, and parts of southern and eastern Africa.