RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Although patients with shoulder complaints are frequently referred to physiotherapy, putative predictive factors for outcomes are still unclear. In this regard, only a limited amount of scientific data for patients with subacromial pain syndrome exist, with inconsistent results. An improved knowledge about the ability of baseline variables to predict outcomes could help patients make informed treatment decisions, prevent them from receiving ineffective treatments, and minimize the risk of developing chronic pain. AIM: The aims of this secondary longitudinal analysis are threefold: First, to investigate baseline differences between patients with and without successful long-term outcomes following physiotherapy. Second, to compare the predictive ability of two sets of putative predictive variables on outcomes, one based on the literature and one based on the data of the original trial. Third, to explore the contribution of short-term follow-up data to predictive models. METHODS: Differences between responders and nonresponders were calculated. The predictive ability of variables defined through literature and of variables based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) from the original trial dataset on the Shoulder Pain and Disability Index and the Patients' Global Impression of Change at the one-year follow-up were analyzed. To test the robustness of the results, different statistical models were used. To investigate the contribution of follow-up data to prediction, short-term data were included in the analyses. RESULTS: A sample of 87 patients with subacromial pain syndrome was analyzed. 77% (n = 67) of these participants were classified as responders. Higher expectations and short-term change scores were positive, and higher fear avoidance beliefs, greater baseline disability and pain levels were negative predictors of long-term outcomes in patients with subacromial pain syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: Although our results are in line with previous research and support the use of clinical factors for prediction, our findings suggest that psychological factors, especially patient expectations and fear avoidance beliefs, also contribute to long-term outcomes and should therefore be considered in the clinical context and further research. However, the hypotheses and recommendations generated from our results need to be confirmed in further studies due to their explorative nature. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The original trial was registered at Current Controlled Trials under the trial registration number ISRCTN86900354 on March 17, 2010.