Prognostic Indicators for Ebola Patient Survival.

To determine whether 2 readily available indicators predicted survival among patients with Ebola virus disease in Sierra Leone, we evaluated information for 216 of the 227 patients in Bo District during a 4-month period. The indicators were time from symptom onset to healthcare facility admission and quantitative real-time reverse transcription PCR cycle threshold (Ct), a surrogate for viral load, in first Ebola virus-positive blood sample tested. Of these patients, 151 were alive when detected and had reported healthcare facility admission dates and Ct values available. Time from symptom onset to healthcare facility admission was not associated with survival, but viral load in the first Ebola virus-positive blood sample was inversely associated with survival: 52 (87%) of 60 patients with a Ct of >24 survived and 20 (22%) of 91 with a Ct of <24 survived. Ct values may be useful for clinicians making treatment decisions or managing patient or family expectations.

Fires in refugee and displaced persons settlements: The current situation and opportunities to improve fire prevention and control.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to describe the burden of fires in displaced persons settlements and identify interventions/innovations that might address gaps in current humanitarian guidelines. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of: (i) academic and non-academic literature databases; and (ii) guidelines from leading humanitarian agencies/initiatives regarding fire prevention/control. RESULTS: Of the 1521 records retrieved, 131 reports described settlement fires in 31 hosting countries since 1990. These incidents resulted in 487 deaths, 790 burn injuries, displacement of 382,486 individuals and destruction of 50,509 shelters. There was a 25-fold increase in the rate of settlement fires from 1990 to 2015 (0.002-0.051 per 100,000 refugees, respectively). Only 4 of the 15 leading humanitarian agencies provided recommendations about fire prevention/control strategies. Potentially useful interventions/innovations included safer stoves (e.g. solar cookers) and fire retardant shelter materials. CONCLUSION: The large and increasing number of fires in displaced persons settlements highlights the need to redress gaps in humanitarian fire prevention/control guidelines. The way forward includes: (i) developing consensus among aid agencies regarding fire prevention/control strategies; (ii) evaluating the impact of interventions/innovations on the burden of fires; and (iii) engaging agencies in a broader discussion about protecting camp residents from armed groups.