Summary of available surveillance data on hepatitis C virus infection from eight Arctic countries, 2012 to 2014.

We summarised available hepatitis C virus (HCV) surveillance data for 2012-14 from Arctic/sub-Arctic countries/regions. We sent a HCV data collection template by email to public health authorities in all jurisdictions. Population statistics obtained from census sources for each country were used to estimate rates of reported acute and chronic/undifferentiated HCV cases. Seven countries with Arctic regions (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Greenland, Norway, Sweden and the United States, represented by the state of Alaska), including three Canadian territories and one province, as well as 11 Russian subnational Arctic regions, completed the data collection template. Data on acute HCV infection during 2014 was available from three Arctic countries and all Russian Arctic regions (rate range 0/100,000 population in Greenland, as well as Nenets and Chukotka Automous Okrugs (Russian subnational Arctic regions) to 3.7/100,000 in the Russian Republic of Komi). The rate of people with chronic/undifferentiated HCV infection in 2014 ranged from 0/100,000 in Greenland to 171.2/100,000 in Alaska. In most countries/regions, the majority of HCV-infected people were male and aged 19-64 years. Differences in surveillance methods preclude direct comparisons of HCV surveillance data between Arctic countries/regions. Our data can inform future efforts to develop standardised approaches to HCV surveillance in the Arctic countries/regions by identifying similarities/differences between the surveillance data collected.

Lyme Borreliosis in Finland, 1995-2014.

We investigated the epidemiology of Lyme borreliosis (LB) in Finland for the period 1995-2014 by using data from 3 different healthcare registers. We reviewed data on disseminated LB cases from the National Infectious Diseases Register (21,051 cases) and the National Hospital Discharge Register (10,402 cases) and data on primary LB (erythema migrans) cases from the Register for Primary Health Care Visits (11,793 cases). Incidence of microbiologically confirmed disseminated LB cases increased from 7/100,000 population in 1995 to 31/100,000 in 2014. Incidence of primary LB cases increased from 44/100,000 in 2011 to 61/100,000 in 2014. Overall, cases occurred predominantly in women, and we observed a bimodal age distribution in all 3 registers. Our results clearly demonstrate that the geographic distribution of LB has expanded in Finland and underscore the importance of LB as an increasing public health concern in Finland and in northern Europe in general.

A controlled survey of less typical long-term consequences after an extensive waterborne epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Extensive backflow of treated wastewater caused household water contamination in a Finnish town in 2007. The drinking water of 9 500 residents became heavily polluted with faecal microbes, resulting in a large gastroenteritis epidemic. Cases of reactive arthritis, milder joint symptoms and prolonged gastrointestinal symptoms were observed after the outbreak. A follow-up survey was performed to study less familiar long-term health consequences within a year from the outbreak. METHODS: The contaminated group comprised a sample of residents of the area with polluted water supply (N = 323) and the control group a sample of residents in a nearby municipality (N = 186). The presence of 20 general symptoms or complaints was inquired by a mail survey. Quarterly prevalence of each symptom or complaint was measured. Twelve of these proceeded to further analysis. RESULTS: The response rate was 53% (323/615) in the contaminated group and 54% (186/343) in the control group. Rash, eye irritation, heartburn and weight loss were more prevalent in the contaminated group during the first year quarter. In the last year quarter, only eye irritation was significantly more common in the contaminated group. CONCLUSION: The excess prevalence of four complaints at the first year quarter can be explained by acute gastroenteritis or intensive water chlorination. The excess prevalence of eye irritation at the fourth year quarter cannot be explained by chlorination anymore but might be a sign of co-existing reactive joint disease. In general, long-term consequences of the outbreak can be considered minor in terms of the surveyed symptoms or complaints.

Association between heavy precipitation events and waterborne outbreaks in four Nordic countries, 1992-2012.

We conducted a matched case-control study to examine the association between heavy precipitation events and waterborne outbreaks (WBOs) by linking epidemiological registries and meteorological data between 1992 and 2012 in four Nordic countries. Heavy precipitation events were defined by above average (exceedance) daily rainfall during the preceding weeks using local references. We performed conditional logistic regression using the four previous years as the controls. Among WBOs with known onset date (n = 89), exceedance rainfall on two or more days was associated with occurrence of outbreak, OR = 3.06 (95% CI 1.38-6.78), compared to zero exceedance days. Stratified analyses revealed a significant association with single household water supplies, ground water as source and for outbreaks occurring during spring and summer. These findings were reproduced in analyses including all WBOs with known outbreak month (n = 186). The vulnerability of single households to WBOs associated with heavy precipitation events should be communicated to homeowners and implemented into future policy planning to reduce the risk of waterborne illness.

Respiratory diphtheria in an asylum seeker from Afghanistan arriving to Finland via Sweden, December 2015.

In December 2015, an asylum seeker originating from Afghanistan was diagnosed with respiratory diphtheria in Finland. He arrived in Finland from Sweden where he had already been clinically suspected and tested for diphtheria. Corynebacterium diphtheriae was confirmed in Sweden and shown to be genotypically and phenotypically toxigenic. The event highlights the importance of early case detection, rapid communication within the country and internationally as well as preparedness plans of diphtheria antitoxin availability.

Surveillance of endemic foci of tick-borne encephalitis in Finland 1995-2013: evidence of emergence of new foci.

The geographical risk areas for tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Finland remained the same until the beginning of the 21st century, but a considerable geographical expansion has been observed in the past 10 years. In order to support public health measures, the present study describes the number of laboratory-confirmed TBE cases and laboratory tests conducted and the associated trends by hospital district, with a particular emphasis on the suspected geographical risk areas. An additional investigation was conducted on 1,957 clinical serum samples throughout the country taken from patients with neurological symptoms to screen for undiagnosed TBE cases. This study identified new TBE foci in Finland, reflecting the spread of the disease into new areas. Even in the most endemic municipalities, transmission of TBE to humans occurred in very specific and often small foci. The number of antibody tests for TBE virus more than doubled (an increase by 105%) between 2007 and 2013. Analysis of the number of tests also revealed areas in which the awareness of clinicians may be suboptimal at present. However, it appears that underdiagnosis of neuroinvasive TBE is not common.

[Tick-borne encephalitis in Finland from 2010 to 2012]. / Puutiaisaivokuume Suomessa 2010-2012.

The frequency of occurrence of tick-borne encephalitis has increased significantly in Europe and Finland during the past twenty years. There has been a suspicion that the Finnish cases have at least over the last few years been more severe than described in the literature. We analyzed the approximately one hundred cases of tick-borne encephalitis diagnosed in Finland over a three-year period. In two thirds of the patients general physical condition deteriorated clearly, the disease caused permanent disability or the patients required supportive measures in the hospital, such as ventilator therapy. Assessment of the course and severity of the disease would seem to be impossible on the basis of individual symptoms, such as duration of fever.

Genome analysis of Campylobacter jejuni strains isolated from a waterborne outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Waterborne Campylobacter jejuni outbreaks are common in the Nordic countries, and PFGE (pulsed field gel electrophoresis) remains the genotyping method of choice in outbreak investigations. However, PFGE cannot assess the clonal relationship between isolates, leading to difficulties in molecular epidemiological investigations. Here, we explored the applicability of whole genome sequencing to outbreak investigation by re-analysing three C. jejuni strains (one isolated from water and two from patients) from an earlier resolved Finnish waterborne outbreak from the year 2000. RESULTS: One of the patient strains had the same PFGE profile, as well as an identical overall gene synteny and three polymorphisms in comparison with the water strain. However, the other patient isolate, which showed only minor differences in the PFGE pattern relative to the water strain, harboured several polymorphisms as well as rearrangements in the integrated element CJIE2. We reconstructed the genealogy of these strains with ClonalFrame including in the analysis four C. jejuni isolated from chicken in 2012 having the same PFGE profile and sequence type as the outbreak strains. The three outbreak strains exhibited a paraphyletic relationship, implying that the drinking water from 2000 was probably contaminated with at least two different, but related, C. jejuni strains. CONCLUSIONS: Our results emphasize the capability of whole genome sequencing to unambiguously resolve the clonal relationship between isolates of C. jejuni in an outbreak situation and evaluate the diversity of the C. jejuni population.

Clostridium difficile contamination of public tap water distribution system during a waterborne outbreak in Finland.

AIMS: In November through December 2007, the drinking water distribution system in the town of Nokia, Finland, was contaminated with treated sewage effluent that resulted in a large gastroenteritis outbreak in the community. The aim of the present study was to investigate if the contaminated water in this outbreak was also a potential source of Clostridium difficile infections. METHODS: Samples from the contaminated tap water and treated sewage effluent were collected. Stool samples from a portion of patients that fell ill during the outbreak were examined for C. difficile. PCR ribotyping was performed on toxin positive C. difficile isolates and the genetic profiles of the water and patient isolates were compared. RESULTS: Twelve toxin-positive C. difficile isolates were found in water samples: five from contaminated tap water and seven from treated sewage effluent. Among these, four and five distinct PCR ribotype profiles were identified, respectively. Four PCR ribotype profiles were found among nine human faecal C. difficile isolates. Two isolates, one from tap water and one from a patient, had an indistinguishable PCR ribotype profile. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate for the first time C. difficile contamination of a tap water distribution system and waterborne transmission of toxigenic C. difficile seems possible.

Excess healthcare costs of a large waterborne outbreak in Finland.

BACKGROUND: The economic effects of waterborne outbreaks have rarely been reported. A large waterborne outbreak occurred in the town of Nokia in Finland in 2007 with half of the population in the contaminated area suffering from gastroenteritis. We studied the healthcare costs of this outbreak. METHODS: Healthcare costs were studied using register data from the Nokia Health Care Centre, data collected in the regional university hospital, and data from laboratory register on stool samples. RESULTS: Total excess healthcare costs were EUR 354,496, which is approximately EUR 10 per resident of Nokia. There were 2052 excess visits because of gastroenteritis in Nokia Health Care Centre, 403 excess episodes in the university hospital, and altogether over 2000 excess stool samples due to the outbreak. Care in the Nokia Health Care Centre accounted for 44% and care in the university hospital for 42% of the excess healthcare costs while stool samples accounted for only 10%. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the high morbidity, the total cost was low because most patients had a relatively mild illness. The situation would have been worse if the microbes involved had been more hazardous or if the financial situation of the community had been worse. Prevention of waterborne outbreaks is important, as there is a risk of severe short- and long-term health effects and substantial health-economic costs.

[A domestic human case of hepatitis E in Finland]. / Suomalaismiehen kotoperäinen E-hepatiittitartunta.

We describe the first verified domestic HEV case in a previously healthy 53-year-old man who presented a three-day history of upper stomach pain, nausea, fever, arthralgia and fatigue. At the first phase laboratory tests revealed high levels of AST and ALT and at the second phase high levels of bilirubin. Serum was positive for anti-HEV IgM and for HEV RNA confirming the diagnosis of acute hepatitis E. The HEV was genotype 3. Jaundice resolved in three months. In nonendemic areas autochthonous hepatitis E is more common than previously recognized and is possible in patients with acute hepatitis.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli serotype O78:H(-) in family, Finland, 2009.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) is a pathogen that causes gastroenteritis and bloody diarrhea but can lead to severe disease, such as hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS). STEC serotype O78:H(-) is rare among humans, and infections are often asymptomatic. We detected a sorbitol-fermenting STEC O78:H(-):stx(1c):hlyA in blood and fecal samples of a 2-week-old boy who had bacteremia and HUS and in fecal samples of his asymptomatic family members. The phenotypic and genotypic characteristics and the virulence properties of this invasive STEC were investigated. Our findings demonstrate that contrary to earlier suggestions, STEC under certain conditions can invade the human bloodstream. Moreover, this study highlights the need to implement appropriate diagnostic methods for identifying the whole spectrum of STEC strains associated with HUS.

Genotypic and phenotypic characterization of carriage and invasive disease isolates of Neisseria meningitidis in Finland.

The relationship between carriage and the development of invasive meningococcal disease is not fully understood. We investigated the changes in meningococcal carriage in 892 military recruits in Finland during a nonepidemic period (July 2004 to January 2006) and characterized all of the oropharyngeal meningococcal isolates obtained (n = 215) by using phenotypic (serogrouping and serotyping) and genotypic (porA typing and multilocus sequence typing) methods. For comparison, 84 invasive meningococcal disease strains isolated in Finland between January 2004 and February 2006 were also analyzed. The rate of meningococcal carriage was significantly higher at the end of military service than on arrival (18% versus 2.2%; P < 0.001). Seventy-four percent of serogroupable carriage isolates belonged to serogroup B, and 24% belonged to serogroup Y. Most carriage isolates belonged to the carriage-associated ST-60 clonal complex. However, 21.5% belonged to the hyperinvasive ST-41/44 clonal complex. Isolates belonging to the ST-23 clonal complex were cultured more often from oropharyngeal samples taken during the acute phase of respiratory infection than from samples taken at health examinations at the beginning and end of military service (odds ratio [OR], 6.7; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 2.7 to 16.4). The ST-32 clonal complex was associated with meningococcal disease (OR, 17.8; 95% CI, 3.8 to 81.2), while the ST-60 clonal complex was associated with carriage (OR, 10.7; 95% CI, 3.3 to 35.2). These findings point to the importance of meningococcal vaccination for military recruits and also to the need for an efficacious vaccine against serogroup B isolates.

Clinical isolates of Yersinia enterocolitica biotype 1A represent two phylogenetic lineages with differing pathogenicity-related properties.

BACKGROUND: Y. enterocolitica biotype (BT) 1A strains are often isolated from human clinical samples but their contribution to disease has remained a controversial topic. Variation and the population structure among the clinical Y. enterocolitica BT 1A isolates have been poorly characterized. We used multi-locus sequence typing (MLST), 16S rRNA gene sequencing, PCR for ystA and ystB, lipopolysaccharide analysis, phage typing, human serum complement killing assay and analysis of the symptoms of the patients to characterize 298 clinical Y. enterocolitica BT 1A isolates in order to evaluate their relatedness and pathogenic potential. RESULTS: A subset of 71 BT 1A strains, selected based on their varying LPS patterns, were subjected to detailed genetic analyses. The MLST on seven house-keeping genes (adk, argA, aroA, glnA, gyrB, thrA, trpE) conducted on 43 of the strains discriminated them into 39 MLST-types. By Bayesian analysis of the population structure (BAPS) the strains clustered conclusively into two distinct lineages, i.e. Genetic groups 1 and 2. The strains of Genetic group 1 were more closely related (97% similarity) to the pathogenic bio/serotype 4/O:3 strains than Genetic group 2 strains (95% similarity). Further comparison of the 16S rRNA genes of the BT 1A strains indicated that altogether 17 of the 71 strains belong to Genetic group 2. On the 16S rRNA analysis, these 17 strains were only 98% similar to the previously identified subspecies of Y. enterocolitica. The strains of Genetic group 2 were uniform in their pathogenecity-related properties: they lacked the ystB gene, belonged to the same LPS subtype or were of rough type, were all resistant to the five tested yersiniophages, were largely resistant to serum complement and did not ferment fucose. The 54 strains in Genetic group 1 showed much more variation in these properties. The most commonly detected LPS types were similar to the LPS types of reference strains with serotypes O:6,30 and O:6,31 (37%), O:7,8 (19%) and O:5 (15%). CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study strengthen the assertion that strains classified as Y. enterocolitica BT 1A represent more than one subspecies. Especially the BT 1A strains in our Genetic group 2 commonly showed resistance to human serum complement killing, which may indicate pathogenic potential for these strains. However, their virulence mechanisms remain unknown.

Joint symptoms after a large waterborne gastroenteritis outbreak--a controlled, population-based questionnaire study.

OBJECTIVES: Waterborne outbreaks offer an opportunity to study joint symptoms after a simultaneous exposure. In November 2007, a gastroenteritis outbreak due to faecal contamination of tap water took place in a Finnish town. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of joint symptoms after the outbreak. METHODS: The authors conducted a controlled, population-based questionnaire survey to study the occurrence of joint symptoms within 8 weeks after the exposure. The survey covered three areas: contaminated and uncontaminated parts of the town and a control town. A total of 1000 residents were randomly selected from each area, and the joint symptoms were first analysed separately and thereafter categorized as arthritis-like if joint swelling, redness, warmth or pain in movement was reported. RESULTS: A total of 2123 responses could be evaluated. The overall prevalence of joint symptoms was 13.9% in the contaminated group, 4.3% in the uncontaminated group and 1.5% among the control group, and the frequency of arthritis-like symptoms in the groups was 6.7, 2.1 and 0.5%, respectively. Gastrointestinal symptoms predicted joint complaints, diarrhoea and blood in faeces being the most significant. Residing in the contaminated area was associated with any joint symptom [odds ratio (OR) = 4.0, 95% CI 1.8, 9.0] and joint pain (OR = 7.3, 95% CI 2.1, 24.8) without preceding gastroenteritis. CONCLUSION: The frequency of joint symptoms was high in the contaminated group and also increased in the uncontaminated group. Furthermore, the risk of joint symptoms was increased in the contaminated group even without gastroenteritis.

Serological cross-sectional studies on salmonella incidence in eight European countries: no correlation with incidence of reported cases.

BACKGROUND: Published incidence rates of human salmonella infections are mostly based on numbers of stool culture-confirmed cases reported to public health surveillance. These cases constitute only a small fraction of all cases occurring in the community. The extent of underascertainment is influenced by health care seeking behaviour and sensitivity of surveillance systems, so that reported incidence rates from different countries are not comparable. We performed serological cross-sectional studies to compare infection risks in eight European countries independent of underascertainment. METHODS: A total of 6,393 sera from adults in Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Poland, Romania, Sweden, and The Netherlands were analysed, mostly from existing serum banks collected in the years 2003 to 2008. Immunoglobulin A (IgA), IgM, and IgG against salmonella lipopolysaccharides were measured by in-house mixed ELISA. We converted antibody concentrations to estimates of infection incidence ('sero-incidence') using a Bayesian backcalculation model, based on previously studied antibody decay profiles in persons with culture-confirmed salmonella infections. We compared sero-incidence with incidence of cases reported through routine public health surveillance and with published incidence estimates derived from infection risks in Swedish travellers to those countries. RESULTS: Sero-incidence of salmonella infections ranged from 56 (95% credible interval 8-151) infections per 1,000 person-years in Finland to 547 (343-813) in Poland. Depending on country, sero-incidence was approximately 100 to 2,000 times higher than incidence of culture-confirmed cases reported through routine surveillance, with a trend for an inverse correlation. Sero-incidence was significantly correlated with incidence estimated from infection risks in Swedish travellers. CONCLUSIONS: Sero-incidence estimation is a new method to estimate and compare the incidence of salmonella infections in human populations independent of surveillance artefacts. Our results confirm that comparison of reported incidence between countries can be grossly misleading, even within the European Union. Because sero-incidence includes asymptomatic infections, it is not a direct measure of burden of illness. But, pending further validation of this novel method, it may be a promising and cost-effective way to assess infection risks and to evaluate the effectiveness of salmonella control programmes across countries or over time.

Multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, and antimicrobial susceptibility patterns in discrimination of sporadic and outbreak-related strains of Yersinia enterocolitica.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the potential of multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis (MLVA), pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), and antimicrobial susceptibility testing for discriminating 104 sporadic and outbreak-related Yersinia enterocolitica (YE) bio/serotype 3-4/O:3 and 2/O:9 isolates. MLVA using six VNTR markers was performed in two separate multiplex PCRs, and the fluorescently labeled PCR products were accurately sized on an automated DNA sequencer. RESULTS: MLVA discriminated 82 sporadic YE 3-4/O:3 and 2/O:9 strains into 77 types, whereas PFGE with the restriction enzyme NotI discriminated the strains into 23 different PFGE pulsotypes. The discriminatory index for a sporadic strain was 0.862 for PFGE and 0.999 for MLVA. MLVA confirmed that a foodborne outbreak in the city of Kotka, Finland in 2003 had been caused by a multiresistant YE 4/O:3 strain that was distinctly different from those of epidemiologically unrelated strains with an identical PFGE pulsotype. The multiresistance of Y. enterocolitica strains (19% of the sporadic strains) correlated significantly (p = 0.002) with travel abroad. All of the multiresistant Y. enterocolitica strains belonged to four PFGE pulsotypes that did not contain any susceptible strains. Resistance to nalidixic acid was related to changes in codons 83 or 87 that stemmed from mutations in the gyrA gene. The conjugation experiments demonstrated that resistance to CHL, STR, and SUL was carried by a conjugative plasmid. CONCLUSIONS: MLVA using six loci had better discriminatory power than PFGE with the NotI enzyme. MLVA was also a less labor-intensive method than PFGE and the results were easier to analyze. The conjugation experiments demonstrated that a resistance plasmid can easily be transferred between Y. enterocolitica strains. Antimicrobial multiresistance of Y. enterocolitica strains was significantly associated with travel abroad.

A large Finnish echovirus 30 outbreak was preceded by silent circulation of the same genotype.

An outbreak of echovirus 30 (E-30) in 2009 was confirmed by both frequent isolation of the virus from sewage as well as from patient samples in Finland. Over the last 10 years E-30 had only been isolated sporadically in Finland. We here study the phylogenetic relationships of the strains from the outbreak in the context of E-30 circulation over the last 20 years. The analyzed region comprised 276 nucleotides in the 5' end of VP1 (nucleotides 132-407 in the VP1 of the E-30 Bastianni strain). The Finnish strains were clustered into at least four distinct genogroups, with seven clusters exceeding the genotype demarcation of 12% and the 2009 epidemic strains forming the largest genogroup VII. Moreover, we detected largely divergent genotypes in 2007 and 2009. Interestingly, close genetic relatives of the epidemic strains had already been isolated a few years before the outbreak. Phylodynamic analysis estimated 8.9 years (95% highest posterior density intervals 7.0-11.0) as the age of genogroup VII, indicating a probable origin and evolutionary history prior to its introduction and epidemic expansion in Finland. Finally, the most recent common ancestor for the current E-30 diversity dates back to 1939 (95% highest posterior density intervals 1913-1956).

Agricultural, socioeconomic and environmental variables as risks for human verotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC) infection in Finland.

BACKGROUND: Verotoxigenic E. coli (VTEC) is the cause of severe gastrointestinal infection especially among infants. Between 10 and 20 cases are reported annually to the National Infectious Disease Register (NIDR) in Finland. The aim of this study was to identify explanatory variables for VTEC infections reported to the NIDR in Finland between 1997 and 2006. We applied a hurdle model, applicable for a dataset with an excess of zeros. METHODS: We enrolled 131 domestically acquired primary cases of VTEC between 1997 and 2006 from routine surveillance data. The isolated strains were characterized by virulence type, serogroup, phage type and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. By applying a two-part Bayesian hurdle model to infectious disease surveillance data, we were able to create a model in which the covariates were associated with the probability for occurrence of the cases in the logistic regression part and the magnitude of covariate changes in the Poisson regression part if cases do occur. The model also included spatial correlations between neighbouring municipalities. RESULTS: The average annual incidence rate was 4.8 cases per million inhabitants based on the cases as reported to the NIDR. Of the 131 cases, 74 VTEC O157 and 58 non-O157 strains were isolated (one person had dual infections). The number of bulls per human population and the proportion of the population with a higher education were associated with an increased occurrence and incidence of human VTEC infections in 70 (17%) of 416 of Finnish municipalities. In addition, the proportion of fresh water per area, the proportion of cultivated land per area and the proportion of low income households with children were associated with increased incidence of VTEC infections. CONCLUSIONS: With hurdle models we were able to distinguish between risk factors for the occurrence of the disease and the incidence of the disease for data characterised by an excess of zeros. The density of bulls and the proportion of the population with higher education were significant both for occurrence and incidence, while the proportion of fresh water, cultivated land, and the proportion of low income households with children were significant for the incidence of the disease.

Bayesian temporal source attribution of foodborne zoonoses: Campylobacter in Finland and Norway.

Statistical source attribution approaches of food-related zoonoses can generally be based on reported diagnosed human cases and surveillance results from different food sources or reservoirs of bacteria. The attribution model, or probabilistic classifier, can thus be based on the (sub)typing information enabling comparison between human infections and samples derived from source surveillance. Having time series of both data allows analyzing temporal patterns over time providing a repeated natural experiment. A Bayesian approach combining both sources of information over a long time series is presented in the case of Campylobacter in Finland and Norway. The full model is transparently presented and derived from the Bayes theorem. Previous statistical source attribution approaches are here advanced (1) by explicit modeling of the cases not associated with any of the sources under surveillance over time, (2) by modeling uncertain prevalence in a food source by bacteria type over time, and (3) by implementing formal model fit assessment using posterior predictive discrepancy functions. Large proportion of all campylobacteriosis can be attributed to broiler, but considerable uncertainty remains over time. The source attribution is inherently incomplete if only the sources under surveillance are included in the model. All statistical source attribution approaches should include a model fit assessment for judgment of model performance with respect to relevant quantities of interest. It is especially relevant when the model aims at a synthesis of several incomplete information sources under significant uncertainty of explanatory variables.