Using comparative extinction risk analysis to prioritize the IUCN Red List reassessments of amphibians.

Assessing the extinction risk of species based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (RL) is key to guiding conservation policies and reducing biodiversity loss. This process is resource demanding, however, and requires continuous updating, which becomes increasingly difficult as new species are added to the RL. Automatic methods, such as comparative analyses used to predict species RL category, can be an efficient alternative to keep assessments up to date. Using amphibians as a study group, we predicted which species are more likely to change their RL category and thus should be prioritized for reassessment. We used species biological traits, environmental variables, and proxies of climate and land-use change as predictors of RL category. We produced an ensemble prediction of IUCN RL category for each species by combining 4 different model algorithms: cumulative link models, phylogenetic generalized least squares, random forests, and neural networks. By comparing RL categories with the ensemble prediction and accounting for uncertainty among model algorithms, we identified species that should be prioritized for future reassessment based on the mismatch between predicted and observed values. The most important predicting variables across models were species' range size and spatial configuration of the range, biological traits, climate change, and land-use change. We compared our proposed prioritization index and the predicted RL changes with independent IUCN RL reassessments and found high performance of both the prioritization and the predicted directionality of changes in RL categories. Ensemble modeling of RL category is a promising tool for prioritizing species for reassessment while accounting for models' uncertainty. This approach is broadly applicable to all taxa on the IUCN RL and to regional and national assessments and may improve allocation of the limited human and economic resources available to maintain an up-to-date IUCN RL.

Uso del análisis comparativo del riesgo de extinción para priorizar la reevaluación de los anfibios en la Lista Roja de la UICN Resumen El análisis del riesgo de extinción de una especie con base en la Lista Roja (LR) de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) es clave para guiar las políticas de conservación y reducir la pérdida de la biodiversidad. Sin embargo, este proceso demanda recursos y requiere de actualizaciones continuas, lo que se complica conforme se añaden especies nuevas a la LR. Los métodos automáticos, como los análisis comparativos usados para predecir la categoría de la especie en la LR, pueden ser una alternativa eficiente para mantener actualizados los análisis. Usamos a los anfibios como grupo de estudio para predecir cuáles especies tienen mayor probabilidad de cambiar de categoría en la LR y que, por lo tanto, se debería priorizar su reevaluación. Usamos las características biológicas de la especie, las variables ambientales e indicadores climáticos y del cambio de uso de suelo como predictores de la categoría en la LR. Elaboramos una predicción de ensamble de la categoría en la LR de la UICN para cada especie mediante la combinación de cuatro algoritmos diferentes: modelos de vínculo acumulativo, menor número de cuadros filogenéticos generalizados, bosques aleatorios y redes neurales. Con la comparación entre las categorías de la LR y la predicción de ensamble y con considerar la incertidumbre entre los algoritmos identificamos especies que deberían ser prioridad para futuras reevaluaciones con base en el desfase entre los valores predichos y los observados. Las variables de predicción más importantes entre los modelos fueron el tamaño de la distribución de la especie y su configuración espacial, las características biológicas, el cambio climático y el cambio de uso de suelo. Comparamos nuestra propuesta de índice de priorización y los cambios predichos en la LR con las reevaluaciones independientes de la LR de la UICN y descubrimos un buen desempeño tanto para la priorización como para la direccionalidad predicha de los cambios en las categorías de la LR. El modelo de ensamble de la categoría de la LR esa una herramienta prometedora para priorizar la reevaluación de las especies a la vez que considera la incertidumbre del modelo. Esta estrategia puede generalizarse para aplicarse a todos los taxones de la LR de la UICN y a los análisis regionales y nacionales. También podría mejorar la asignación de los recursos humanos y económicos limitados disponibles para mantener actualizada la LR de la UICN.

Conservation resource allocation, small population resiliency, and the fallacy of conservation triage.

Some conservation prioritization methods are based on the assumption that conservation needs overwhelm current resources and not all species can be conserved; therefore, a conservation triage scheme (i.e., when the system is overwhelmed, species should be divided into three groups based on likelihood of survival, and efforts should be focused on those species in the group with the best survival prospects and reduced or denied to those in the group with no survival prospects and to those in the group not needing special efforts for their conservation) is necessary to guide resource allocation. We argue that this decision-making strategy is not appropriate because resources are not as limited as often assumed, and it is not evident that there are species that cannot be conserved. Small population size alone, for example, does not doom a species to extinction; plants, reptiles, birds, and mammals offer examples. Although resources dedicated to conserving all threatened species are insufficient at present, the world's economic resources are vast, and greater resources could be dedicated toward species conservation. The political framework for species conservation has improved, with initiatives such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and other international agreements, funding mechanisms such as The Global Environment Facility, and the rise of many nongovernmental organizations with nimble, rapid-response small grants programs. For a prioritization system to allow no extinctions, zero extinctions must be an explicit goal of the system. Extinction is not inevitable, and should not be acceptable. A goal of no human-induced extinctions is imperative given the irreversibility of species loss.

Asignación de Recursos para la Conservación, Resiliencia de Poblaciones Pequeñas y la Falacia del Triaje de Conservación Resumen Algunos métodos de priorización de la conservación están basados en el supuesto de que las necesidades de la conservación superan a los actuales recursos y que no todas las especies pueden ser conservadas; por lo tanto, se necesita un esquema de triaje (esto es, cuando el sistema está abrumado, las especies deben dividirse en tres grupos con base en su probabilidad de supervivencia y los esfuerzos deben enfocarse en aquellas especies dentro del grupo con las mejores probabilidades de supervivencia y a aquellas en el grupo sin probabilidades de supervivencia o aquellas en el grupo que no necesita esfuerzos especializados para su conservación se les deben reducir o negar los esfuerzos de conservación) para dirigir la asignación de recursos. Discutimos que esta estrategia para la toma de decisiones no es apropiada porque los recursos no están tan limitados como se asume con frecuencia y tampoco es evidente que existan especies que no puedan ser conservadas. Por ejemplo, tan sólo un tamaño poblacional pequeño no es suficiente para condenar a una especie a la extinción; contamos con ejemplos en plantas, reptiles, aves y mamíferos. Aunque actualmente todos los recursos dedicados a la conservación de todas las especies amenazadas son insuficientes, los recursos económicos mundiales son vastos y se podrían dedicar mayores recursos a la conservación de especies. El marco de trabajo político para la conservación de especies ha mejorado, con iniciativas como los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sustentable de la ONU y otros acuerdos internacionales, el financiamiento de mecanismos como el Fondo para el Medio Ambiente Mundial, y el surgimiento de muchas organizaciones no gubernamentales mediante programas de subsidios pequeños hábiles y de respuesta rápida. Para que un sistema de priorización no permita las extinciones, las cero extinciones deben ser un objetivo explícito del sistema. La extinción no es inevitable y no debería ser aceptable. El objetivo de cero extinciones inducidas por humanos es imperativo dada la irreversibilidad de la pérdida de especies.

Quantifying the relative irreplaceability of important bird and biodiversity areas.

World governments have committed to increase the global protected areas coverage by 2020, but the effectiveness of this commitment for protecting biodiversity depends on where new protected areas are located. Threshold- and complementarity-based approaches have been independently used to identify important sites for biodiversity. We brought together these approaches by performing a complementarity-based analysis of irreplaceability in important bird and biodiversity areas (IBAs), which are sites identified using a threshold-based approach. We determined whether irreplaceability values are higher inside than outside IBAs and whether any observed difference depends on known characteristics of the IBAs. We focused on 3 regions with comprehensive IBA inventories and bird distribution atlases: Australia, southern Africa, and Europe. Irreplaceability values were significantly higher inside than outside IBAs, although differences were much smaller in Europe than elsewhere. Higher irreplaceability values in IBAs were associated with the presence and number of restricted-range species; number of criteria under which the site was identified; and mean geographic range size of the species for which the site was identified (trigger species). In addition, IBAs were characterized by higher irreplaceability values when using proportional species representation targets, rather than fixed targets. There were broadly comparable results when measuring irreplaceability for trigger species and when considering all bird species, which indicates a good surrogacy effect of the former. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has convened a consultation to consolidate global standards for the identification of key biodiversity areas (KBAs), building from existing approaches such as IBAs. Our results informed this consultation, and in particular a proposed irreplaceability criterion that will allow the new KBA standard to draw on the strengths of both threshold- and complementarity-based approaches.

The positive impact of conservation action.

Governments recently adopted new global targets to halt and reverse the loss of biodiversity. It is therefore crucial to understand the outcomes of conservation actions. We conducted a global meta-analysis of 186 studies (including 665 trials) that measured biodiversity over time and compared outcomes under conservation action with a suitable counterfactual of no action. We find that in two-thirds of cases, conservation either improved the state of biodiversity or at least slowed declines. Specifically, we find that interventions targeted at species and ecosystems, such as invasive species control, habitat loss reduction and restoration, protected areas, and sustainable management, are highly effective and have large effect sizes. This provides the strongest evidence to date that conservation actions are successful but require transformational scaling up to meet global targets.

Assessing the Cost of Global Biodiversity and Conservation Knowledge.

Knowledge products comprise assessments of authoritative information supported by standards, governance, quality control, data, tools, and capacity building mechanisms. Considerable resources are dedicated to developing and maintaining knowledge products for biodiversity conservation, and they are widely used to inform policy and advise decision makers and practitioners. However, the financial cost of delivering this information is largely undocumented. We evaluated the costs and funding sources for developing and maintaining four global biodiversity and conservation knowledge products: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Protected Planet, and the World Database of Key Biodiversity Areas. These are secondary data sets, built on primary data collected by extensive networks of expert contributors worldwide. We estimate that US$160 million (range: US$116-204 million), plus 293 person-years of volunteer time (range: 278-308 person-years) valued at US$ 14 million (range US$12-16 million), were invested in these four knowledge products between 1979 and 2013. More than half of this financing was provided through philanthropy, and nearly three-quarters was spent on personnel costs. The estimated annual cost of maintaining data and platforms for three of these knowledge products (excluding the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems for which annual costs were not possible to estimate for 2013) is US$6.5 million in total (range: US$6.2-6.7 million). We estimated that an additional US$114 million will be needed to reach pre-defined baselines of data coverage for all the four knowledge products, and that once achieved, annual maintenance costs will be approximately US$12 million. These costs are much lower than those to maintain many other, similarly important, global knowledge products. Ensuring that biodiversity and conservation knowledge products are sufficiently up to date, comprehensive and accurate is fundamental to inform decision-making for biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Thus, the development and implementation of plans for sustainable long-term financing for them is critical.

Genomic Correlates of Virulence Attenuation in the Deadly Amphibian Chytrid Fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis.

Emerging infectious diseasespose a significant threat to global health, but predicting disease outcomes for particular species can be complicated when pathogen virulence varies across space, time, or hosts. The pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused worldwide declines in frog populations. Not only do Bd isolates from wild populations vary in virulence, but virulence shifts can occur over short timescales when Bd is maintained in the laboratory. We leveraged changes in Bd virulence over multiple generations of passage to better understand mechanisms of pathogen virulence. We conducted whole-genome resequencing of two samples of the same Bd isolate, differing only in passage history, to identify genomic processes associated with virulence attenuation. The isolate with shorter passage history (and greater virulence) had greater chromosome copy numbers than the isolate maintained in culture for longer, suggesting that virulence attenuation may be associated with loss of chromosome copies. Our results suggest that genomic processes proposed as mechanisms for rapid evolution in Bd are correlated with virulence attenuation in laboratory culture within a single lineage of Bd. Moreover, these genomic processes can occur over extremely short timescales. On a practical level, our results underscore the importance of immediately cryo-archiving new Bd isolates and using fresh isolates, rather than samples cultured in the laboratory for long periods, for laboratory infection experiments. Finally, when attempting to predict disease outcomes for this ecologically important pathogen, it is critical to consider existing variation in virulence among isolates and the potential for shifts in virulence over short timescales.

Susceptibility to the amphibian chytrid fungus varies with ontogeny in the direct-developing frog, Eleutherodactylus coqui.

Age-related differences in susceptibility to infectious disease are known from a wide variety of plant and animal taxonomic groups. For example, the immature immune systems of young vertebrates, along with limited prior exposure to pathogens and behavioral factors, can place juveniles at greater risk of acquiring and succumbing to a pathogen. We studied the ontogenetic susceptibility of terrestrial direct-developing frogs (Eleutherodactylus coqui) to the fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which is responsible for the decline of amphibian species worldwide. By exposing juvenile and adult frogs to the same dose and strain of Bd, we uncovered ontogenetic differences in susceptibility. Froglets exposed to the pathogen had significantly lower survival rates compared with control froglets, while adult frogs largely cleared infection and had survival rates indistinguishable from control frogs, even when exposed to a much higher dose of Bd. The high disease-induced mortality rate of juveniles may explain ongoing population declines in eastern Puerto Rico, where Bd is endemic and juveniles experience higher prevalence and infection intensity compared to adults. Our results have important implications for understanding and modeling the decline, possibly to extinction, of amphibian populations and species.

Fungal infection intensity and zoospore output of Atelopus zeteki, a potential acute chytrid supershedder.

Amphibians vary in their response to infection by the amphibian-killing chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Highly susceptible species are the first to decline and/or disappear once Bd arrives at a site. These competent hosts likely facilitate Bd proliferation because of ineffective innate and/or acquired immune defenses. We show that Atelopus zeteki, a highly susceptible species that has undergone substantial population declines throughout its range, rapidly and exponentially increases skin Bd infection intensity, achieving intensities that are several orders of magnitude greater than most other species reported. We experimentally infected individuals that were never exposed to Bd (n = 5) or previously exposed to an attenuated Bd strain (JEL427-P39; n = 3). Within seven days post-inoculation, the average Bd infection intensity was 18,213 zoospores (SE: 9,010; range: 0 to 66,928). Both average Bd infection intensity and zoospore output (i.e., the number of zoospores released per minute by an infected individual) increased exponentially until time of death (t50 = 7.018, p<0.001, t46 = 3.164, p = 0.001, respectively). Mean Bd infection intensity and zoospore output at death were 4,334,422 zoospores (SE: 1,236,431) and 23.55 zoospores per minute (SE: 22.78), respectively, with as many as 9,584,158 zoospores on a single individual. The daily percent increases in Bd infection intensity and zoospore output were 35.4% (SE: 0.05) and 13.1% (SE: 0.04), respectively. We also found that Bd infection intensity and zoospore output were positively correlated (t43 = 3.926, p<0.001). All animals died between 22 and 33 days post-inoculation (mean: 28.88; SE: 1.58). Prior Bd infection had no effect on survival, Bd infection intensity, or zoospore output. We conclude that A. zeteki, a highly susceptible amphibian species, may be an acute supershedder. Our results can inform epidemiological models to estimate Bd outbreak probability, especially as they relate to reintroduction programs.

A fungal pathogen of amphibians, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, attenuates in pathogenicity with in vitro passages.

Laboratory investigations into the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), have accelerated recently, given the pathogen's role in causing the global decline and extinction of amphibians. Studies in which host animals were exposed to Bd have largely assumed that lab-maintained pathogen cultures retained the infective and pathogenic properties of wild isolates. Attenuated pathogenicity is common in artificially maintained cultures of other pathogenic fungi, but to date, it is unknown whether, and to what degree, Bd might change in culture. We compared zoospore production over time in two samples of a single Bd isolate having different passage histories: one maintained in artificial media for more than six years (JEL427-P39), and one recently thawed from cryopreserved stock (JEL427-P9). In a common garden experiment, we then exposed two different amphibian species, Eleutherodactylus coqui and Atelopus zeteki, to both cultures to test whether Bd attenuates in pathogenicity with in vitro passages. The culture with the shorter passage history, JEL427-P9, had significantly greater zoospore densities over time compared to JEL427-P39. This difference in zoospore production was associated with a difference in pathogenicity for a susceptible amphibian species, indicating that fecundity may be an important virulence factor for Bd. In the 130-day experiment, Atelopus zeteki frogs exposed to the JEL427-P9 culture experienced higher average infection intensity and 100% mortality, compared with 60% mortality for frogs exposed to JEL427-P39. This effect was not observed with Eleutherodactylus coqui, which was able to clear infection. We hypothesize that the differences in phenotypic performance observed with Atelopus zeteki are rooted in changes of the Bd genome. Future investigations enabled by this study will focus on the underlying mechanisms of Bd pathogenicity.