Estimate of OH trends over one decade in North American cities.

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the most important oxidant on global and local scales in the troposphere. Urban OH controls the removal rate of primary pollutants and triggers the production of ozone. Interannual trends of OH in urban areas are not well documented or understood due to the short lifetime and high spatial heterogeneity of OH. We utilize machine learning with observational inputs emphasizing satellite remote sensing observations to predict surface OH in 49 North American cities from 2005 to 2014. We observe changes in the summertime OH over one decade, with wide variation among different cities. In 2014, compared to the summertime OH in 2005, 3 cities show a significant increase of OH, whereas, in 27 cities, OH decreases in 2014. The year-to-year variation of OH is mapped to the decline of the NO2 column. We conclude that these cities in this analysis are either in the NOx-limited regime or at the transition from a NOx suppressed regime to a NOx-limited regime. The result emphasizes that, in the future, controlling NOx emissions will be most effective in regulating the ozone pollution in these cities.

Societal shifts due to COVID-19 reveal large-scale complexities and feedbacks between atmospheric chemistry and climate change.

The COVID-19 global pandemic and associated government lockdowns dramatically altered human activity, providing a window into how changes in individual behavior, enacted en masse, impact atmospheric composition. The resulting reductions in anthropogenic activity represent an unprecedented event that yields a glimpse into a future where emissions to the atmosphere are reduced. Furthermore, the abrupt reduction in emissions during the lockdown periods led to clearly observable changes in atmospheric composition, which provide direct insight into feedbacks between the Earth system and human activity. While air pollutants and greenhouse gases share many common anthropogenic sources, there is a sharp difference in the response of their atmospheric concentrations to COVID-19 emissions changes, due in large part to their different lifetimes. Here, we discuss several key takeaways from modeling and observational studies. First, despite dramatic declines in mobility and associated vehicular emissions, the atmospheric growth rates of greenhouse gases were not slowed, in part due to decreased ocean uptake of CO2 and a likely increase in CH4 lifetime from reduced NO x emissions. Second, the response of O3 to decreased NO x emissions showed significant spatial and temporal variability, due to differing chemical regimes around the world. Finally, the overall response of atmospheric composition to emissions changes is heavily modulated by factors including carbon-cycle feedbacks to CH4 and CO2, background pollutant levels, the timing and location of emissions changes, and climate feedbacks on air quality, such as wildfires and the ozone climate penalty.

Combining Machine Learning and Satellite Observations to Predict Spatial and Temporal Variation of near Surface OH in North American Cities.

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary cleansing agent in the atmosphere. The abundance of OH in cities initiates the removal of local pollutants; therefore, it serves as the key species describing the urban chemical environment. We propose a machine learning (ML) approach as an efficient alternative to OH simulation using a computationally expensive chemical transport model. The ML model is trained on the parameters simulated from the WRF-Chem model, and it suggests that six predictive parameters are capable of explaining 76% of the OH variability. The parameters are the tropospheric NO2 column, the tropospheric HCHO column, J(O1D), H2O, temperature, and pressure. We then use observations of the tropospheric NO2 column and HCHO column from OMI as input to the ML model to enable measurement-based prediction of daily near surface OH at 1:30 pm local time across 49 North American cities over the course of 10 years between 2005 and 2014. The result is validated by comparing the OH predictions to measurements of isoprene, which has a source that is uncorrelated with OH and is removed rapidly and almost exclusively by OH in the daytime. We demonstrate that the predicted OH is, as expected, anticorrelated with isoprene. We also show that this ML model is consistent with our understanding of OH chemistry given the solely data-driven nature.

Direct observation of changing NO x lifetime in North American cities.

NO x lifetime relates nonlinearly to its own concentration; therefore, by observing how NO x lifetime changes with changes in its concentration, inferences can be made about the dominant chemistry occurring in an urban plume. We used satellite observations of NO2 from a new high-resolution product to show that NO x lifetime in approximately 30 North American cities has changed between 2005 and 2014 in a manner consistent with our understanding of NO x chemistry.

Why do Models Overestimate Surface Ozone in the Southeastern United States?

Ozone pollution in the Southeast US involves complex chemistry driven by emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxide radicals (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) and biogenic isoprene. Model estimates of surface ozone concentrations tend to be biased high in the region and this is of concern for designing effective emission control strategies to meet air quality standards. We use detailed chemical observations from the SEAC4RS aircraft campaign in August and September 2013, interpreted with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model at 0.25°×0.3125° horizontal resolution, to better understand the factors controlling surface ozone in the Southeast US. We find that the National Emission Inventory (NEI) for NOx from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is too high. This finding is based on SEAC4RS observations of NOx and its oxidation products, surface network observations of nitrate wet deposition fluxes, and OMI satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns. Our results indicate that NEI NOx emissions from mobile and industrial sources must be reduced by 30-60%, dependent on the assumption of the contribution by soil NOx emissions. Upper tropospheric NO2 from lightning makes a large contribution to satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 that must be accounted for when using these data to estimate surface NOx emissions. We find that only half of isoprene oxidation proceeds by the high-NOx pathway to produce ozone; this fraction is only moderately sensitive to changes in NOx emissions because isoprene and NOx emissions are spatially segregated. GEOS-Chem with reduced NOx emissions provides an unbiased simulation of ozone observations from the aircraft, and reproduces the observed ozone production efficiency in the boundary layer as derived from a regression of ozone and NOx oxidation products. However, the model is still biased high by 8±13 ppb relative to observed surface ozone in the Southeast US. Ozonesondes launched during midday hours show a 7 ppb ozone decrease from 1.5 km to the surface that GEOS-Chem does not capture. This bias may reflect a combination of excessive vertical mixing and net ozone production in the model boundary layer.