Clinical Management of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis in 16 European Countries.

RATIONALE: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a major burden to public health in Europe. Reported treatment success rates are around 50% or less, and cure rates are even lower. OBJECTIVES: To document the management and treatment outcome in patients with MDR-TB in Europe. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study, analyzing management and treatment outcomes stratified by incidence of patients with MDR-TB in Europe. Treatment outcomes were compared by World Health Organization and alternative simplified definitions by the Tuberculosis Network European Trialsgroup (TBNET). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 380 patients with MDR-TB were recruited and followed up between 2010 and 2014 in 16 European countries. Patients in high-incidence countries compared with low-incidence countries were treated more frequently with standardized regimen (83.2% vs. 9.9%), had delayed treatment initiation (median, 111 vs. 28 d), developed more additional drug resistance (23% vs. 5.8%), and had increased mortality (9.4% vs. 1.9%). Only 20.1% of patients using pyrazinamide had proven susceptibility to the drug. Applying World Health Organization outcome definitions, frequency of cure (38.7% vs. 9.7%) was higher in high-incidence countries. Simplified outcome definitions that include 1 year of follow-up after the end of treatment showed similar frequency of relapse-free cure in low- (58.3%), intermediate- (55.8%), and high-incidence (57.1%) countries, but highest frequency of failure in high-incidence countries (24.1% vs. 14.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Conventional standard MDR-TB treatment regimens resulted in a higher frequency of failure compared with individualized treatments. Overall, cure from MDR-TB is substantially more frequent than previously anticipated, and poorly reflected by World Health Organization outcome definitions.

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis and culture conversion with bedaquiline.

BACKGROUND: Bedaquiline (Sirturo, TMC207), a diarylquinoline that inhibits mycobacterial ATP synthase, has been associated with accelerated sputum-culture conversion in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, when added to a preferred background regimen for 8 weeks. METHODS: In this phase 2b trial, we randomly assigned 160 patients with newly diagnosed, smear-positive, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis to receive either 400 mg of bedaquiline once daily for 2 weeks, followed by 200 mg three times a week for 22 weeks, or placebo, both in combination with a preferred background regimen. The primary efficacy end point was the time to sputum-culture conversion in liquid broth. Patients were followed for 120 weeks from baseline. RESULTS: Bedaquiline reduced the median time to culture conversion, as compared with placebo, from 125 days to 83 days (hazard ratio in the bedaquiline group, 2.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.57 to 3.80; P<0.001 by Cox regression analysis) and increased the rate of culture conversion at 24 weeks (79% vs. 58%, P=0.008) and at 120 weeks (62% vs. 44%, P=0.04). On the basis of World Health Organization outcome definitions for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, cure rates at 120 weeks were 58% in the bedaquiline group and 32% in the placebo group (P=0.003). The overall incidence of adverse events was similar in the two groups. There were 10 deaths in the bedaquiline group and 2 in the placebo group, with no causal pattern evident. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of bedaquiline to a preferred background regimen for 24 weeks resulted in faster culture conversion and significantly more culture conversions at 120 weeks, as compared with placebo. There were more deaths in the bedaquiline group than in the placebo group. (Funded by Janssen Pharmaceuticals; TMC207-C208 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00449644.).

Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes in Relation to Treatment and Initial Versus Acquired Second-Line Drug Resistance.

BACKGROUND: Resistance to second-line drugs develops during treatment of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis, but the impact on treatment outcome has not been determined. METHODS: Patients with MDR tuberculosis starting second-line drug treatment were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Sputum cultures were analyzed at a central reference laboratory. We compared subjects with successful and poor treatment outcomes in terms of (1) initial and acquired resistance to fluoroquinolones and second-line injectable drugs (SLIs) and (2) treatment regimens. RESULTS: Of 1244 patients with MDR tuberculosis, 973 (78.2%) had known outcomes and 232 (18.6%) were lost to follow-up. Among those with known outcomes, treatment succeeded in 85.8% with plain MDR tuberculosis, 69.7% with initial resistance to either a fluoroquinolone or an SLI, 37.5% with acquired resistance to a fluoroquinolone or SLI, 29.3% with initial and 13.0% with acquired extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (P < .001 for trend). In contrast, among those with known outcomes, treatment success increased stepwise from 41.6% to 92.3% as the number of drugs proven effective increased from ≤1 to ≥5 (P < .001 for trend), while acquired drug resistance decreased from 12% to 16% range, depending on the drug, down to 0%-2% (P < .001 for trend). In multivariable analysis, the adjusted odds of treatment success decreased 0.62-fold (95% confidence interval, .56-.69) for each increment in drug resistance and increased 2.1-fold (1.40-3.18) for each additional effective drug, controlling for differences between programs and patients. Specific treatment, patient, and program variables were also associated with treatment outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing drug resistance was associated in a logical stepwise manner with poor treatment outcomes. Acquired resistance was worse than initial resistance to the same drugs. Increasing numbers of effective drugs, specific drugs, and specific program characteristics were associated with better outcomes and less acquired resistance.

Decreased Time to Treatment Initiation for Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Patients after Use of Xpert MTB/RIF Test, Latvia.

Few studies have examined whether the Xpert MTB/RIF test improves time to treatment initiation for persons with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB). We determined the impact of this test in Latvia, where it was introduced in 2010. After descriptive analyses of pulmonary MDR TB patients in Latvia during 2009-2012, time to treatment initiation was calculated, and univariate and multivariable accelerated failure time models were constructed. Univariate results showed strong evidence of an association between having rifampin-resistant TB detected by Xpert MTB/RIF and reduced time to treatment initiation versus the test not being used. A multivariable model stratifying by previous TB showed similar results. Our finding that in Latvia, time to treatment initiation was decreased for MDR TB cases that were rifampin-resistant TB by XpertMTB/RIF has implications for the use of this test in other settings with a high burden of MDR TB in which rifampin resistance is highly predictive of MDR TB.

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment failure detection depends on monitoring interval and microbiological method.

Debate persists about monitoring method (culture or smear) and interval (monthly or less frequently) during treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). We analysed existing data and estimated the effect of monitoring strategies on timing of failure detection.We identified studies reporting microbiological response to MDR-TB treatment and solicited individual patient data from authors. Frailty survival models were used to estimate pooled relative risk of failure detection in the last 12 months of treatment; hazard of failure using monthly culture was the reference.Data were obtained for 5410 patients across 12 observational studies. During the last 12 months of treatment, failure detection occurred in a median of 3 months by monthly culture; failure detection was delayed by 2, 7, and 9 months relying on bimonthly culture, monthly smear and bimonthly smear, respectively. Risk (95% CI) of failure detection delay resulting from monthly smear relative to culture is 0.38 (0.34-0.42) for all patients and 0.33 (0.25-0.42) for HIV-co-infected patients.Failure detection is delayed by reducing the sensitivity and frequency of the monitoring method. Monthly monitoring of sputum cultures from patients receiving MDR-TB treatment is recommended. Expanded laboratory capacity is needed for high-quality culture, and for smear microscopy and rapid molecular tests.

Additional drug resistance of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in patients in 9 countries.

Data from a large multicenter observational study of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB) were analyzed to simulate the possible use of 2 new approaches to treatment of MDR TB: a short (9-month) regimen and a bedaquiline-containing regimen. Of 1,254 patients, 952 (75.9%) had no resistance to fluoroquinolones and second-line injectable drugs and thus would qualify as candidates for the 9-month regimen; 302 (24.1%) patients with resistance to a fluoroquinolone or second-line injectable drug would qualify as candidates for a bedaquiline-containing regimen in accordance with published guidelines. Among candidates for the 9-month regimen, standardized drug-susceptibility tests demonstrated susceptibility to a median of 5 (interquartile range 5-6) drugs. Among candidates for bedaquiline, drug-susceptibility tests demonstrated susceptibility to a median of 3 (interquartile range 2-4) drugs; 26% retained susceptibility to <2 drugs. These data may assist national TB programs in planning to implement new drugs and drug regimens.

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Europe, 2010-2011.

Drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis is challenging elimination of tuberculosis (TB). We evaluated risk factors for TB and levels of second-line drug resistance in M. tuberculosis in patients in Europe with multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB. A total of 380 patients with MDR TB and 376 patients with non-MDR TB were enrolled at 23 centers in 16 countries in Europe during 2010-2011. A total of 52.4% of MDR TB patients had never been treated for TB, which suggests primary transmission of MDR M. tuberculosis. At initiation of treatment for MDR TB, 59.7% of M. tuberculosis strains tested were resistant to pyrazinamide, 51.1% were resistant to ≥1 second-line drug, 26.6% were resistant to second-line injectable drugs, 17.6% were resistant to fluoroquinolones, and 6.8% were extensively drug resistant. Previous treatment for TB was the strongest risk factor for MDR TB. High levels of primary transmission and advanced resistance to second-line drugs characterize MDR TB cases in Europe.

Association between Regimen Composition and Treatment Response in Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: For treating multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB), the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a regimen of at least four second-line drugs that are likely to be effective as well as pyrazinamide. WHO guidelines indicate only marginal benefit for regimens based directly on drug susceptibility testing (DST) results. Recent evidence from isolated cohorts suggests that regimens containing more drugs may be beneficial, and that DST results are predictive of regimen effectiveness. The objective of our study was to gain insight into how regimen design affects treatment response by analyzing the association between time to sputum culture conversion and both the number of potentially effective drugs included in a regimen and the DST results of the drugs in the regimen. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed data from the Preserving Effective Tuberculosis Treatment Study (PETTS), a prospective observational study of 1,659 adults treated for MDR TB during 2005-2010 in nine countries: Estonia, Latvia, Peru, Philippines, Russian Federation, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan. For all patients, monthly sputum samples were collected, and DST was performed on baseline isolates at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We included 1,137 patients in our analysis based on their having known baseline DST results for at least fluoroquinolones and second-line injectable drugs, and not having extensively drug-resistant TB. These patients were followed for a median of 20 mo (interquartile range 16-23 mo) after MDR TB treatment initiation. The primary outcome of interest was initial sputum culture conversion. We used Cox proportional hazards regression, stratifying by country to control for setting-associated confounders, and adjusting for the number of drugs to which patients' baseline isolates were resistant, baseline resistance pattern, previous treatment history, sputum smear result, and extent of disease on chest radiograph. In multivariable analysis, receiving an average of at least six potentially effective drugs (defined as drugs without a DST result indicating resistance) per day was associated with a 36% greater likelihood of sputum culture conversion than receiving an average of at least five but fewer than six potentially effective drugs per day (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.36, 95% CI 1.09-1.69). Inclusion of pyrazinamide (aHR 2.00, 95% CI 1.65-2.41) or more drugs to which baseline DST indicated susceptibility (aHR 1.65, 95% CI 1.48-1.84, per drug) in regimens was associated with greater increases in the likelihood of sputum culture conversion than including more drugs to which baseline DST indicated resistance (aHR 1.33, 95% CI 1.18-1.51, per drug). Including in the regimen more drugs for which DST was not performed was beneficial only if a minimum of three effective drugs was present in the regimen (aHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.09-1.76, per drug when three effective drugs present in regimen). The main limitation of this analysis is that it is based on observational data, not a randomized trial, and drug regimens varied across sites. However, PETTS was a uniquely large and rigorous observational study in terms of both the number of patients enrolled and the standardization of laboratory testing. Other limitations include the assumption of equivalent efficacy across drugs in a category, incomplete data on adherence, and the fact that the analysis considers only initial sputum culture conversion, not reversion or long-term relapse. CONCLUSIONS: MDR TB regimens including more potentially effective drugs than the minimum of five currently recommended by WHO may encourage improved response to treatment in patients with MDR TB. Rapid access to high-quality DST results could facilitate the design of more effective individualized regimens. Randomized controlled trials are necessary to confirm whether individualized regimens with more than five drugs can indeed achieve better cure rates than current recommended regimens.

Treatment outcomes of patients with multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis according to drug susceptibility testing to first- and second-line drugs: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Individualized treatment for multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis depends upon reliable and valid drug susceptibility testing (DST) for pyrazinamide, ethambutol, and second-line tuberculosis drugs. However, the reliability of these tests is uncertain, due to unresolved methodological issues. We estimated the association of DST results for pyrazinamide, ethambutol, and second-line drugs with treatment outcomes in patients with MDR tuberculosis and XDR tuberculosis. METHODS: We conducted an analysis of individual patient data assembled from 31 previously published cohort studies of patients with MDR and XDR tuberculosis. We used data on patients' clinical characteristics including DST results, treatment received, outcomes, and laboratory methods in each center. RESULTS: DST methods and treatment regimens used in different centers varied considerably. Among 8955 analyzed patients, in vitro susceptibility to individual drugs was consistently and significantly associated with higher odds of treatment success (compared with resistance to the drug), if that drug was used in the treatment regimen. Various adjusted and sensitivity analyses suggest that this was not explained by confounding. The adjusted odds of treatment success for ethambutol, pyrazinamide, and the group 4 drugs ranged from 1.7 to 2.3, whereas for second-line injectables and fluoroquinolones, odds ranged from 2.4 to 4.6. CONCLUSIONS: DST for ethambutol, pyrazinamide, and second-line tuberculosis drugs appears to provide clinically useful information to guide selection of treatment regimens for MDR and XDR tuberculosis.

Extensive drug resistance acquired during treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Increasing access to drugs for the treatment of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis is crucial but could lead to increasing resistance to these same drugs. In 2000, the international Green Light Committee (GLC) initiative began to increase access while attempting to prevent acquired resistance. METHODS: To assess the GLC's impact, we followed adults with pulmonary MDR tuberculosis from the start to the end of treatment with monthly sputum cultures, drug susceptibility testing, and genotyping. We compared the frequency and predictors of acquired resistance to second-line drugs (SLDs) in 9 countries that volunteered to participate, 5 countries that met GLC criteria, and 4 countries that did not apply to the GLC. RESULTS: In total, 832 subjects were enrolled. Of those without baseline resistance to specific SLDs, 68 (8.9%) acquired extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis, 79 (11.2%) acquired fluoroquinolone (FQ) resistance, and 56 (7.8%) acquired resistance to second-line injectable drugs (SLIs). The relative risk (95% confidence interval [CI]) of acquired resistance was lower at GLC-approved sites: 0.27 (.16-.47) for XDR tuberculosis, 0.28 (.17-.45) for FQ, and 0.15 (.06-.39) to 0.60 (.34-1.05) for 3 different SLIs. The risk increased as the number of potentially effective drugs decreased. Controlling for baseline drug resistance and differences between sites, the odds ratios (95% CIs) were 0.21 (.07-.62) for acquired XDR tuberculosis and 0.23 (.09-.59) for acquired FQ resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of MDR tuberculosis involves substantial risk of acquired resistance to SLDs, increasing as baseline drug resistance increases. The risk was significantly lower in programs documented by the GLC to meet specific standards.

Prevalence of and risk factors for resistance to second-line drugs in people with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in eight countries: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis is increasing due to the expanded use of second-line drugs in people with multidrug-resistant (MDR) disease. We prospectively assessed resistance to second-line antituberculosis drugs in eight countries. METHODS: From Jan 1, 2005, to Dec 31, 2008, we enrolled consecutive adults with locally confirmed pulmonary MDR tuberculosis at the start of second-line treatment in Estonia, Latvia, Peru, Philippines, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, and Thailand. Drug-susceptibility testing for study purposes was done centrally at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for 11 first-line and second-line drugs. We compared the results with clinical and epidemiological data to identify risk factors for resistance to second-line drugs and XDR tuberculosis. FINDINGS: Among 1278 patients, 43·7% showed resistance to at least one second-line drug, 20·0% to at least one second-line injectable drug, and 12·9% to at least one fluoroquinolone. 6·7% of patients had XDR tuberculosis (range across study sites 0·8-15·2%). Previous treatment with second-line drugs was consistently the strongest risk factor for resistance to these drugs, which increased the risk of XDR tuberculosis by more than four times. Fluoroquinolone resistance and XDR tuberculosis were more frequent in women than in men. Unemployment, alcohol abuse, and smoking were associated with resistance to second-line injectable drugs across countries. Other risk factors differed between drugs and countries. INTERPRETATION: Previous treatment with second-line drugs is a strong, consistent risk factor for resistance to these drugs, including XDR tuberculosis. Representative drug-susceptibility results could guide in-country policies for laboratory capacity and diagnostic strategies. FUNDING: US Agency for International Development, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare.

Delamanid improves outcomes and reduces mortality in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

Multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) are associated with worse treatment outcomes for patients, including higher mortality, than for drug-sensitive tuberculosis. Delamanid (OPC-67683) is a novel anti-TB medication with demonstrated activity against multidrug-resistant disease. Patients who participated in the previously reported randomised, placebo-controlled trial of delamanid and the subsequent open-label extension trial were eligible to participate in a 24-month observational study designed to capture treatment outcomes. Treatment outcomes, as assessed by clinicians and defined by the World Health Organization, were categorised as favourable and unfavourable. Delamanid treatment groups were combined for analysis, based on their duration of treatment. In total, for 421 (87.5%) out of 481 patients from the original randomised controlled trial, consent was granted for follow-up assessments. Favourable outcomes were observed in 143 (74.5%) out of 192 patients who received delamanid for ≥6 months, compared to 126 (55%) out of 229 patients who received delamanid for ≤2 months. Mortality was reduced to 1.0% among those receiving long-term delamanid versus short-term/no delamanid (8.3%; p<0.001). Treatment benefit was also seen among patients with extensively drug-resistant TB. This analysis suggests that treatment with delamanid for 6 months in combination with an optimised background regimen can improve outcomes and reduce mortality among patients with both multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant TB.

The value of effective public tuberculosis treatment: an analysis of opportunity costs associated with multidrug resistant tuberculosis in Latvia.

BACKGROUND: A challenge to effective protection against tuberculosis is to sustain expensive and complex treatment public programs. Potential consequences of program failure include acquired drug resistance, poor patient outcomes, and potentially much higher system costs, however. In contrast, effective efforts have value illustrated by impacts they prevent. We compared the healthcare costs and treatment outcomes among multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and non MDR-TB patients in Latvia to identify benefits or costs associated with both. METHODS: We measured and compared costs, healthcare utilization, and outcomes for patients who began treatment through Latvia's TB control program in 2002 using multivariate regression analysis and negative binomial regression. RESULTS: We analyzed data for 92 MDR-TB and 54 non MDR-TB patients. Most (67%) MDR-TB patients had history of prior tuberculosis treatment. MDR-TB was associated with lower cure rates (71% vs. 91%) and greater resource utilization. MDR-TB treatment cost almost $20,000 more than non MDR-TB. CONCLUSION: Up to 2/3 of MDR-TB treated in our sample was preventable at a potential savings of over $1.3 million in healthcare resources as well as substantial individual health.

Multidrug resistant pulmonary tuberculosis treatment regimens and patient outcomes: an individual patient data meta-analysis of 9,153 patients.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is lengthy, toxic, expensive, and has generally poor outcomes. We undertook an individual patient data meta-analysis to assess the impact on outcomes of the type, number, and duration of drugs used to treat MDR-TB. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Three recent systematic reviews were used to identify studies reporting treatment outcomes of microbiologically confirmed MDR-TB. Study authors were contacted to solicit individual patient data including clinical characteristics, treatment given, and outcomes. Random effects multivariable logistic meta-regression was used to estimate adjusted odds of treatment success. Adequate treatment and outcome data were provided for 9,153 patients with MDR-TB from 32 observational studies. Treatment success, compared to failure/relapse, was associated with use of: later generation quinolones, (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.5 [95% CI 1.1-6.0]), ofloxacin (aOR: 2.5 [1.6-3.9]), ethionamide or prothionamide (aOR: 1.7 [1.3-2.3]), use of four or more likely effective drugs in the initial intensive phase (aOR: 2.3 [1.3-3.9]), and three or more likely effective drugs in the continuation phase (aOR: 2.7 [1.7-4.1]). Similar results were seen for the association of treatment success compared to failure/relapse or death: later generation quinolones, (aOR: 2.7 [1.7-4.3]), ofloxacin (aOR: 2.3 [1.3-3.8]), ethionamide or prothionamide (aOR: 1.7 [1.4-2.1]), use of four or more likely effective drugs in the initial intensive phase (aOR: 2.7 [1.9-3.9]), and three or more likely effective drugs in the continuation phase (aOR: 4.5 [3.4-6.0]). CONCLUSIONS: In this individual patient data meta-analysis of observational data, improved MDR-TB treatment success and survival were associated with use of certain fluoroquinolones, ethionamide, or prothionamide, and greater total number of effective drugs. However, randomized trials are urgently needed to optimize MDR-TB treatment. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Time to sputum culture conversion in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: predictors and relationship to treatment outcome.

BACKGROUND: Conversion of sputum mycobacterial cultures from positive growth to negative growth of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) is considered the most important interim indicator of the efficacy of anti-TB pharmacologic treatment for multidrug-resistant disease. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate and compare time to and predictors of initial sputum culture conversion with predictors of treatment outcome for patients with multidrug-resistant TB. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Latvia. PATIENTS: All civilian patients with multidrug-resistant TB treated with the DOTS-Plus strategy between 1 January and 31 December 2000. INTERVENTION: Individualized treatment for confirmed sputum culture-positive pulmonary multidrug-resistant TB. MEASUREMENTS: Time to initial sputum culture conversion and treatment outcome. RESULTS: Among 167 patients who were sputum culture-positive at initiation of second-line therapy, 129 (77%) converted in a median time of 60 days (range, 4 to 462 days) and 38 (23%) did not convert. Independent predictors of a longer sputum culture conversion time, using an accelerated failure time regression model, included previous treatment for multidrug-resistant TB, high initial sputum culture colony count, bilateral cavitations on chest radiography, and the number of drugs the initial isolate was resistant to at treatment initiation. Treatment outcomes were statistically significantly worse for patients who did not convert their sputum culture within 2 months. LIMITATIONS: Twenty-five percent of patients missed 5 or more monthly sputum collections. CONCLUSIONS: Under program conditions in Latvia, most patients with multidrug-resistant TB achieved sputum culture conversion within 12 weeks of starting treatment. Chest radiography and sputum culture drug susceptibility testing can assist physicians in predicting which patients will convert more slowly. Sputum culture conversion is a useful and appropriate interim indicator of treatment outcome in patients with multidrug-resistant TB.

Estimating the future burden of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis are emerging worldwide. The Green Light Committee initiative supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis in 90 countries. We used estimates from the Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study to predict MDR and XDR tuberculosis trends in four countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis: India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. METHODS: We calibrated a compartmental model to data from drug resistance surveys and WHO tuberculosis reports to forecast estimates of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis and the percentage of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis caused by acquired drug resistance, assuming no fitness cost of resistance from 2000 to 2040 in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. FINDINGS: The model forecasted the percentage of MDR tuberculosis among incident cases of tuberculosis to increase, reaching 12·4% (95% prediction interval 9·4-16·2) in India, 8·9% (4·5-11·7) in the Philippines, 32·5% (27·0-35·8) in Russia, and 5·7% (3·0-7·6) in South Africa in 2040. It also predicted the percentage of XDR tuberculosis among incident MDR tuberculosis to increase, reaching 8·9% (95% prediction interval 5·1-12·9) in India, 9·0% (4·0-14·7) in the Philippines, 9·0% (4·8-14·2) in Russia, and 8·5% (2·5-14·7) in South Africa in 2040. Acquired drug resistance would cause less than 30% of incident MDR tuberculosis during 2000-40. Acquired drug resistance caused 80% of incident XDR tuberculosis in 2000, but this estimate would decrease to less than 50% by 2040. INTERPRETATION: MDR and XDR tuberculosis were forecast to increase in all four countries despite improvements in acquired drug resistance shown by the Green Light Committee-supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Additional control efforts beyond improving acquired drug resistance rates are needed to stop the spread of MDR and XDR tuberculosis in countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis. FUNDING: US Agency for International Development and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Tuberculosis Elimination.

Clinical outcome of individualised treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Latvia: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Latvia has one of the highest rates of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB). Our aim was to assess treatment outcomes for the first full cohort of MDRTB patients treated under Latvia's DOTS-Plus strategy following WHO guidelines. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed all civilian patients who began treatment with individualised treatment regimens for pulmonary MDRTB in Latvia between Jan 1, and Dec 31, 2000. We applied treatment outcome definitions for MDRTB, developed by an international expert consensus group, and assessed treatment effectiveness and risk factors associated with poor outcome. FINDINGS: Of the 204 patients assessed, 55 (27%) had been newly diagnosed with MDRTB, and 149 (73%) had earlier been treated with first-line or second-line drugs for this disease. Assessment of treatment outcomes showed that 135 (66%) patients were cured or completed therapy, 14 (7%) died, 26 (13%) defaulted, and treatment failed in 29 (14%). Of the 178 adherent patients, 135 (76%) achieved cure or treatment completion. In a multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model of these patients, independent predictors of poor outcome (death and treatment failure) included having previously received treatment for MDRTB (hazard ratio 5.7, 95% CI 1.9-16.6), the use of five or fewer drugs for 3 months or more (3.2, 1.1-9.6), resistance to ofloxacin (2.6, 1.2-5.4), and body-mass index less than 18.5 at start of treatment (2.3, 1.1-4.9). INTERPRETATION: The DOTS-Plus strategy of identifying and treating patients with MDRTB can be effectively implemented on a nationwide scale in a setting of limited resources.