Genetic distinction between contiguous urban and rural multimammate mice in Tanzania despite gene flow.

Special conditions are required for genetic differentiation to arise at a local geographical scale in the face of gene flow. The Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis, is the most widely distributed and abundant rodent in sub-Saharan Africa. A notorious agricultural pest and a natural host for many zoonotic diseases, it can live in close proximity to humans and appears to compete with other rodents for the synanthropic niche. We surveyed its population genetic structure across a 180-km transect in central Tanzania along which the landscape varied between agricultural land in a rural setting and natural woody vegetation, rivers, roads and a city (Morogoro). We sampled M. natalensis across 10 localities and genotyped 15 microsatellite loci from 515 individuals. Hierarchical STRUCTURE analyses show a K-invariant pattern distinguishing Morogoro suburbs (located in the centre of the transect) from nine surrounding rural localities. Landscape connectivity analyses in Circuitscape and comparison of rainfall patterns suggest that neither geographical isolation nor natural breeding asynchrony could explain the genetic differentiation of the urban population. Using the isolation-with-migration model implemented in IMa2, we inferred that a split between suburban and rural populations would have occurred recently (<150 years ago) with higher urban effective population density consistent with an urban source to rural sink of effective migration. The observed genetic differentiation of urban multimammate mice is striking given the uninterrupted distribution of the animal throughout the landscape and the high estimates of effective migration (2Ne M = 3.0 and 29.7), suggesting a strong selection gradient across the urban boundary.

The abundance threshold for plague as a critical percolation phenomenon.

Percolation theory is most commonly associated with the slow flow of liquid through a porous medium, with applications to the physical sciences. Epidemiological applications have been anticipated for disease systems where the host is a plant or volume of soil, and hence is fixed in space. However, no natural examples have been reported. The central question of interest in percolation theory, the possibility of an infinite connected cluster, corresponds in infectious disease to a positive probability of an epidemic. Archived records of plague (infection with Yersinia pestis) in populations of great gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Kazakhstan have been used to show that epizootics only occur when more than about 0.33 of the burrow systems built by the host are occupied by family groups. The underlying mechanism for this abundance threshold is unknown. Here we present evidence that it is a percolation threshold, which arises from the difference in scale between the movements that transport infectious fleas between family groups and the vast size of contiguous landscapes colonized by gerbils. Conventional theory predicts that abundance thresholds for the spread of infectious disease arise when transmission between hosts is density dependent such that the basic reproduction number (R(0)) increases with abundance, attaining 1 at the threshold. Percolation thresholds, however, are separate, spatially explicit thresholds that indicate long-range connectivity in a system and do not coincide with R(0) = 1. Abundance thresholds are the theoretical basis for attempts to manage infectious disease by reducing the abundance of susceptibles, including vaccination and the culling of wildlife. This first natural example of a percolation threshold in a disease system invites a re-appraisal of other invasion thresholds, such as those for epidemic viral infections in African lions (Panthera leo), and of other disease systems such as bovine tuberculosis (caused by Mycobacterium bovis) in badgers (Meles meles).

Density thresholds for Mopeia virus invasion and persistence in its host Mastomys natalensis.

Well-established theoretical models predict host density thresholds for invasion and persistence of parasites with a density-dependent transmission. Studying such thresholds in reality, however, is not obvious because it requires long-term data for several fluctuating populations of different size. We developed a spatially explicit and individual-based SEIR model of Mopeia virus in multimammate mice Mastomys natalensis. This is an interesting model system for studying abundance thresholds because the host is the most common African rodent, populations fluctuate considerably and the virus is closely related to Lassa virus but non-pathogenic to humans so can be studied safely in the field. The simulations show that, while host density clearly is important, sharp thresholds are only to be expected for persistence (and not for invasion), since at short time-spans (as during invasion), stochasticity is determining. Besides host density, also the spatial extent of the host population is important. We observe the repeated local occurrence of herd immunity, leading to a decrease in transmission of the virus, while even a limited amount of dispersal can have a strong influence in spreading and re-igniting the transmission. The model is most sensitive to the duration of the infectious stage, the size of the home range and the transmission coefficient, so these are important factors to determine experimentally in the future.

The evolutionary history of hepaciviruses.

In the search for natural reservoirs of hepatitis C virus (HCV), a broad diversity of non-human viruses within the Hepacivirus genus has been uncovered. However, the evolutionary dynamics that shaped the diversity and timescale of hepaciviruses evolution remain elusive. To gain further insights into the origins and evolution of this genus, we screened a large dataset of wild mammal samples (n = 1,672) from Africa and Asia, and generated 34 full-length hepacivirus genomes. Phylogenetic analysis of these data together with publicly available genomes emphasizes the importance of rodents as hepacivirus hosts and we identify 13 rodent species and 3 rodent genera (in Cricetidae and Muridae families) as novel hosts of hepaciviruses. Through co-phylogenetic analyses, we demonstrate that hepacivirus diversity has been affected by cross-species transmission events against the backdrop of detectable signal of virus-host co-divergence in the deep evolutionary history. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic multidimensional scaling approach, we explore the extent to which host relatedness and geographic distances have structured present-day hepacivirus diversity. Our results provide evidence for a substantial structuring of mammalian hepacivirus diversity by host as well as geography, with a somewhat more irregular diffusion process in geographic space. Finally, using a mechanistic model that accounts for substitution saturation, we provide the first formal estimates of the timescale of hepacivirus evolution and estimate the origin of the genus to be about 22 million years ago. Our results offer a comprehensive overview of the micro- and macroevolutionary processes that have shaped hepacivirus diversity and enhance our understanding of the long-term evolution of the Hepacivirus genus.

Earwig management tool: an IPM decision aid system for augmentation of European earwig populations (Dermaptera: Forficulidae) in pip fruit orchards.

A key element of integrated pest management (IPM) is the suppression of potential pest outbreaks by beneficial arthropods. The European earwig, Forficula auricularia L., is an important natural enemy of a wide range of insect pests in pip fruit orchards. However, earwig population sizes vary greatly from location to location, illustrating their sensitivity to biotic and abiotic factors, especially human interventions relating to orchard management. In order to help growers sparing and augmenting earwig populations in their pip fruit orchards, we developed a software tool that integrates a sophisticated earwig phenology model with management recommendations. The program is based on a day degree model for earwigs which is fed by temperature data collected by the pcfruit research centre. In addition, a pesticide database with known side effects of a wide range of products on the different life stages of earwigs is integrated in the system. The output gives the current status of the earwig population and management recommendations for activities critical for their survival. Hence, by consultation of this user-friendly software fruit growers can predict the earwig development in the field at any time, and organize the timing of orchard management actions taking into account the presence of (sensitive) life stages of the earwig life cycle. Doing so, negative effects specific orchard management actions, such as badly timed spray applications and soil tillage, can be avoided.

Hantavirus outbreak in Western Europe: reservoir host infection dynamics related to human disease patterns.

Within Europe, Puumala virus (PUUV) is the causal agent of nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans, a zoonotic disease with increasing significance in recent years. In a region of Belgium with a historically high incidence of NE, bank voles (the PUUV reservoir hosts), were monitored for PUUV IgG antibody prevalence in nine study sites before, during, and after the highest NE outbreak recorded in Belgium in 2005. We found that the highest numbers of PUUV IgG-positive voles coincided with the peak of NE cases at the regional level, indicating that a PUUV epizootic in bank voles directly led to the NE outbreak in humans. On a local scale, PUUV infection in voles was patchy and not correlated to NE incidence before the epizootic. However, during the epizootic period PUUV infection spread in the vole populations and was significantly correlated to local NE incidence. Initially, local bank-vole numbers were positively associated with local PUUV infection risk in voles, but this was no longer the case after the homogeneous spreading of PUUV during the PUUV outbreak.

Complementary DNA sequences encoding the multimammate rat MHC class II DQ alpha and beta chains and cross-species sequence comparison in rodents.

Sequences of the complete open reading frame (ORF) for rodents major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II genes are rare. Multimammate rat (Mastomys natalensis) complementary DNA (cDNA) encoding the alpha and beta chains of MHC class II DQ gene was cloned from a rapid amplifications of cDNA Emds (RACE) cDNA library. The ORFs consist of 801 and 771 bp encoding 266 and 256 amino acid residues for DQB and DQA, respectively. The genomic structure of Mana-DQ genes is globally analogous to that described for other rodents except for the insertion of a serine residue in the signal peptide of Mana-DQB, which is unique among known rodents.

High prevalence of Leptospira spp. in sewer rats (Rattus norvegicus).

Earlier studies on the ecology of leptospirosis in temperate regions focused mainly on free-ranging rats in rural areas. Here we report on the occurrence of Leptospira spp. in Rattus norvegicus living in sewers in a suburban area in Copenhagen, Denmark. In 2006-2007, about 30 rats were captured in sewers at each of six different locations. Rat kidneys were screened by PCR for pathogenic Leptospira spp. In one location no infected rats were found, whereas the prevalence in the remaining five locations ranged between 48% and 89%. Micro-agglutination tests showed that serogroup Pomona, Sejroe, and Icterohaemorrhagiae were the most common. Infection was related to age with the highest prevalence observed for adult rats but there was no difference in infection rate between sexes, suggesting primarily environmental transmission. Since most reported rat problems in urban areas are related to sewer rats, the surprisingly high level of infection calls for an increased public health concern.

Population, environmental, and community effects on local bank vole (Myodes glareolus) Puumala virus infection in an area with low human incidence.

In this study, the distribution of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) infection in local bank vole Myodes glareolus populations in an area with low human PUUV infection (nephropathia epidemica [NE]) incidence in northern Belgium was monitored for 2 consecutive years. Bank voles were trapped in preferred habitat and tested for anti-PUUV IgG. Infection data were related to individual bank vole features, population demography, and environmental variables. Rare occurrence of PUUV infection was found and PUUV prevalence was low compared with data from the high NE incidence area in southern Belgium. Small-scale climatic differences seemed to play a role in PUUV occurrence, vegetation index and deciduous forest patch size both influenced PUUV prevalence and number of infected voles in a positive way. The data suggested a density threshold in vole populations below which PUUV infection does not occur. This threshold may vary between years, but the abundance of bank voles does not seem to affect the degree of PUUV seroprevalence further. We found indications for a dilution effect on PUUV prevalence, dependent on the relative proportion of nonhost wood mice Apodemus sylvaticus in a study site. In conclusion, we regard the combination of a dilution effect, a possible threshold density that depends on local conditions, and a higher fragmentation of suitable bank vole habitat in our study area as plausible explanations for the sparse occurrence of PUUV infection and low prevalence detected. Thus, beside human activity patterns, local environmental conditions and rodent community structure are also likely to play a role in determining PUUV infection risk for humans.

Dispersal in Mastomys natalensis mice: use of fine-scale genetic analyses for pest management.

Mastomys natalensis is the major pest rodent in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, population genetic techniques were used to gain new insights into its dispersal behaviour, a critical parameter in pest management. Using 11 microsatellites, 272 individuals from a 300 ha area in Tanzania were genotyped. Genetic diversity was high, with no isolation by distance and little differentiation between field plots far apart, indicating a large effective population size and high dispersal rates in agreement with ecological observations. On the other hand, genetic differentiation between nearby field plots, isolation by distance within a single field plot and kin clustering were also observed. This apparent contradiction may be explained by yearly founder effects of a small number of breeding individuals per square area, which is consistent with the presence of linkage disequilibrium. An alternative, not mutually exclusive explanation is that there are both dispersing and sedentary animals in the population. The low-density field plots were characterized by low relatedness and small genetic distances to other field plots, indicating a high turnover rate and negative density-dependent dispersal. In one field plot female-biased dispersal was observed, which may be related to inbreeding avoidance or female competition for resources. Most juveniles appeared to be local recruits, but they did not seem to stay in their native area for more than two months. Finally, possible implications for pest management are discussed.

Empirical assessment of a threshold model for sylvatic plague.

Plague surveillance programmes established in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, during the previous century, have generated large plague archives that have been used to parameterize an abundance threshold model for sylvatic plague in great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations. Here, we assess the model using additional data from the same archives. Throughout the focus, population levels above the threshold were a necessary condition for an epizootic to occur. However, there were large numbers of occasions when an epizootic was not observed even though great gerbils were, and had been, abundant. We examine six hypotheses that could explain the resulting false positive predictions, namely (i) including end-of-outbreak data erroneously lowers the estimated threshold, (ii) too few gerbils were tested, (iii) plague becomes locally extinct, (iv) the abundance of fleas was too low, (v) the climate was unfavourable, and (vi) a high proportion of gerbils were resistant. Of these, separate thresholds, fleas and climate received some support but accounted for few false positives and can be disregarded as serious omissions from the model. Small sample size and local extinction received strong support and can account for most of the false positives. Host resistance received no support here but should be subject to more direct experimental testing.

A model of Leptospirosis infection in an African rodent to determine risk to humans: seasonal fluctuations and the impact of rodent control.

Human leptospirosis (Leptospira spp. infection) is a worldwide public health problem that is of greatest concern for humid tropical and subtropical regions. The magnitude of the problem in these areas is larger because of the climatic and environmental conditions the bacterium face outside their hosts but also because of the frequency of contacts between people and sources of infection. Rodents are thought to play the most important role in the transmission of human leptospirosis. We here model the dynamics of infection in an African rodent (Mastomys natalensis) that is thought to be the principal source of infection in parts of Tanzania. Our model, representing the climatic conditions in central Tanzania, suggests a strong seasonality in the force of infection on humans with a peak in the abundance of infectious mice between January and April in agricultural environments. In urban areas the dynamics are predicted to be more stable and the period of high numbers of infectious animals runs from February to July. Our results indicate that removal of animals by trapping rather than reducing the suitability of the environment for rodents will have the greater impact on reducing human cases of leptospirosis.

Demographic and spatio-temporal variation in human plague at a persistent focus in Tanzania.

Human plague in the Western Usambara Mountains in Tanzania has been a public health problem since the first outbreak in 1980. The wildlife reservoir is unknown and eradication measures that have proved effective elsewhere in Tanzania appear to fail in this region. We use census data from 2002 and hospital records kept since 1986 to describe the temporal, spatial and demographic variation in human plague. A seasonal peak in cases occurs from December to February with the numbers of cases during this peak varying between 0 and 1150. Variation in incidence, calculated for each village as the mean number of cases per thousand inhabitants per year, indicates that human plague is concentrated around a group of three neighbouring, relatively isolated, high-altitude villages; Nywelo, Madala and Gologolo. However, there was no evidence that these villages were acting as a source of infection for the remainder of the focus. The likelihood of becoming infected with plague is highest between the ages of 5 and 19 and lowest for adult men. This was most clear in the ward encompassing the three high-incidence villages where the risk of plague among children aged 10-14 was 2.2 times higher than for adults aged 30-34, and among adults aged 30-34, the risk was 2.4 times higher for women than men.

Enhancing earwig populations in Belgian orchards.

Earwigs are key generalist predators to a variety of orchard pests. However, the once held believe that earwigs damage and spoil fruits led to control strategies and eventually the loss of large earwig populations in Belgian orchards. In recent years, Integrated and Organic fruit growers have tried to re-establish earwig populations, thus far with little success. We started a study linking various components of orchard management and the earwig life history to identify potential periods in which earwigs are vulnerable and management factors hazardous to earwigs. As a first step, detailed knowledge of earwig phenology in orchards is necessary to identify vulnerable stages in the life cycle. Here we describe the first results from organic apple orchards.

Fluctuating rodent populations and risk to humans from rodent-borne zoonoses.

The fluctuations in abundance of a wildlife reservoir are an attractive explanation for temporal variation in primary human cases of a zoonosis. This is because high abundance may lead to more contact between humans and animals, but also to outbreaks of disease within the reservoir population. We propose a mathematical framework that sets out the consequences of correlation between reservoir abundance and reservoir prevalence for how numbers of human cases are related to reservoir abundance. The fluctuations of rodent populations are well studied and often dramatic. A review of field studies of rodent reservoirs for plague, hantaviruses, and other zoonoses shows that, at a seasonal time scale, a positive correlation between host abundance and host prevalence is rarely observed. More commonly, there is an inverse relationship or negative correlation such that a seasonal increase in rodent abundance is not accompanied by a corresponding increase in the abundance of infectious animals. Seasonal changes in rodent abundance are hence unlikely to fully explain seasonal variation in primary human cases. The few longer field studies (>5 years) show a positive but delayed relationship between reservoir abundance and reservoir prevalence.

Eradication of hantavirus infection among laboratory rats by application of caesarian section and a foster mother technique.

Hantavirus antibodies were demonstrated by the indirect immunofluorescent antibody assay, in the serum of inbred strains of laboratory rats, during the period 1973-1982, at the Unit of Experimental Immunology in the Catholic University of Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. LOU rats, as well as immunocytomas, which were requested by laboratories in the U.K. and The Netherlands, were supplied at a time when the infection was unknown and unsuspected in Europe. Hantavirus-infected laboratory rats were rendered free of virus through re-derivation by caesarian section and suckling by virus-free foster mothers. Immunocytomas were tested for the presence of hantaviruses by implantation into seronegative laboratory rats. The strain of hantavirus causing the laboratory infection was clearly different from the one circulating in free-living bankvoles in Belgium. The exchange of laboratory rats and rat tumours in relation to the potential risk of laboratory-acquired hantavirus infection, is discussed.

Occurrence and distribution of Hantavirus in wild living mammals in Belgium.

Small mammals were screened for the presence of antibodies to Hantaan virus (HTN) and Hantavirus (HV) antigen in Belgium. Antibody and antigen-positive animals were found in different parts of the country. One insectivore and five rodent species were found positive. The highest prevalence of infection was found in the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus). A relation between infected animals and wet habitats was observed. It was obvious that in bank vole the likelihood of infection increased with age.

Partial characterization of a Hantavirus isolated from a Clethrionomys glareolus captured in Belgium.

A Hantavirus was isolated in Vero-E6 cells from lungs of a free living bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) captured in Turnhout, Province of Antwerp--Northern part of Belgium. With help of monoclonal antibodies the Belgian Hantavirus isolate could be clearly differentiated from Hantaan virus strain 76-118, Prospect Hill virus strain PH1 and SR11, a Hantavirus isolated from laboratory Wistar rat in Japan, but not from the nephropathia epidemica virus strain Hällnäs.

Hantavirus disease (nephropathia epidemica) in Belgium: effects of tree seed production and climate.

Recently, human cases of nephropathia epidemica (NE) due to Puumala virus infection in Europe have increased. Following the hypothesis that high reservoir host abundance induces higher transmission rates to humans, explanations for this altered epidemiology must be sought in factors that cause bank vole (Myodes glareolus) abundance peaks. In Western Europe, these abundance peaks are often related to high tree seed production, which is supposedly triggered by specific weather conditions. We evaluated the relationship between tree seed production, climate and NE incidence in Belgium and show that NE epidemics are indeed preceded by abundant tree seed production. Moreover, a direct link between climate and NE incidence is found. High summer and autumn temperatures, 2 years and 1 year respectively before NE occurrence, relate to high NE incidence. This enables early forecasting of NE outbreaks. Since future climate change scenarios predict higher temperatures in Europe, we should regard Puumala virus as an increasing health threat.