Heteroplasmic mitochondrial DNA variants in cardiovascular diseases.

Mitochondria are implicated in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) but the reasons for this are not well understood. Maternally-inherited population variants of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) which affect all mtDNA molecules (homoplasmic) are associated with cardiometabolic traits and the risk of developing cardiovascular disease. However, it is not known whether mtDNA mutations only affecting a proportion of mtDNA molecules (heteroplasmic) also play a role. To address this question, we performed a high-depth (~1000-fold) mtDNA sequencing of blood DNA in 1,399 individuals with hypertension (HTN), 1,946 with ischemic heart disease (IHD), 2,146 with ischemic stroke (IS), and 723 healthy controls. We show that the per individual burden of heteroplasmic single nucleotide variants (mtSNVs) increases with age. The age-effect was stronger for low-level heteroplasmies (heteroplasmic fraction, HF, 5-10%), likely reflecting acquired somatic events based on trinucleotide mutational signatures. After correcting for age and other confounders, intermediate heteroplasmies (HF 10-95%) were more common in hypertension, particularly involving non-synonymous variants altering the amino acid sequence of essential respiratory chain proteins. These findings raise the possibility that heteroplasmic mtSNVs play a role in the pathophysiology of hypertension.

C-Reactive Protein, Interleukin-6, and Vascular Recurrence After Stroke: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Anti-inflammatory therapies reduce recurrent vascular events in coronary disease. Existing studies have reported highly conflicting findings for the association of blood inflammatory markers with vascular recurrence after stroke leading to uncertainty about the potential of anti-inflammatory therapies after stroke and no consensus about the utility of measurement of inflammatory markers in current guidelines. METHODS: We investigated the association between hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), IL-6 (interluekin-6), and recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and stroke from individual participant data from 8420 patients with ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack from 10 prospective studies. We did within-study multivariable regression analyses and then combined adjusted risk ratio (RR) by random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: During 18 920 person-years of follow-up, 1407 (16.7% [95% CI, 15.9-17.5]) patients had MACE and 1191 (14.1% [95% CI, 13.4-14.9]) patients had recurrent stroke. On bivariate analysis, baseline IL-6 was associated with MACE (RR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.10-1.43]) and recurrent stroke (RR, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.05-1.32]), per unit increase logeIL-6. Similar associations were observed for hsCRP (MACE RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.09-1.29]; recurrent stroke RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.04-1.21], per unit increase logehsCRP). After adjustment for vascular risk factors and treatment, independent associations remained with MACE (IL-6, RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.04-1.21]; hsCRP, RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.04-1.15]) and recurrent stroke (IL-6, RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.00-1.19]; hsCRP, RR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.00-1.11]). Comparing the top with the bottom quarters (Q4 versus Q1), IL-6 (RR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.09-1.67]) and hsCRP (RR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.07-1.61]) were associated with MACE after adjustment. Similar results were observed for recurrent stroke for IL-6 (RR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.08-1.65]) but not hsCRP (RR, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.93-1.43]). CONCLUSIONS: Blood markers of inflammation were independently associated with vascular recurrence after stroke, strengthening the rationale for randomized trials of anti-inflammatory therapies for secondary prevention after ischemic stroke/TIA.

Low Heart Rate Is Associated with Cerebral Pulsatility after TIA or Minor Stroke.

OBJECTIVE: Beta-blockers are beneficial in coronary artery disease but less so in stroke prevention and dementia, potentially due to reduced heart rate (HR). Cerebral pulsatility is strongly associated with cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) and may be increased by lower diastolic pressures resulting from longer cardiac cycles. METHODS: Patients 4-6 weeks after TIA or non-disabling stroke (Oxford Vascular Study) underwent 5 minutes continuous monitoring of blood pressure (BP), electrocardiogram (ECG), and middle cerebral artery flow velocity (transcranial ultrasound). Beat-to-beat relationships between HR, blood pressure and Gosling's pulsatility index (MCA-PI) are reported as beta-coefficients from general linear models for each individual. RESULTS: Across 759 patients, average MCA-PI during monitoring was associated with lower HR and diastolic BP (DBP) and greater systolic BP (SBP) (∆MCA-PI per 10 bpm/mmHg: -0.02, -0.04, 0.03, all p < 0.001), with HR particularly associated with low end-diastolic cerebral velocity (0.86, p = 0.014). Beat-to-beat HR was strongly associated with concurrent low DBP and high SBP, potentially mediating the association with greater beat-to-beat cerebral pulsatility (average ∆MCA-PI vs HR/DBP/SBP unadjusted: -0.062, -0.052, 0.0092; adjusted for concurrent BP: -0.039, -0.11, 0.041). The beat-to-beat association between HR and MCA-PI increased with age, beta-blockers, arterial stiffness, low HR (age > 70 + HR < 65 vs age < 70 + HR > 65: -0.081 vs -0.024, interaction p < 0.001), and severe SVD on MRI (age > 70 + severe vs age < 70 + none: -0.087 vs -0.047, interaction p = 0.03), with interactions between age, severe SVD, and low HR synergistically increasing MCA-PI. INTERPRETATION: Low HR is associated with greater cerebral pulsatility in patients with SVD, potentially mediated by lower diastolic blood flow and representing a novel potential treatment target. ANN NEUROL 2022;92:909-920.

Consistencies and Differences in Intermediate Physiological Phenotypes of Vascular Ageing between Ischaemic Stroke Aetiologies.

OBJECTIVE: Arterial stiffness, cerebral pulsatility, and beat-to-beat blood pressure variability partly mediate the relationship between hypertension and stroke, but it is unknown if these intermediate phenotypes of vascular ageing differ between stroke aetiologies. We therefore aimed to characterize differences in these intermediate cardiovascular phenotypes between patients presenting with strokes of different aetiologies. METHODS: In consecutive patients on best medical management 1 month after TIA or nondisabling stroke (Oxford Vascular Study), arterial stiffness (PWV) was measured by applanation tonometry (Sphygmocor), middle cerebral blood flow velocity, and pulsatility index (MCA-PI) were measured by transcranial ultrasound (TCD, DWL Doppler Box), and beat-to-beat BP variability was measured with a Finometer. Differences between patients with large artery (LAS), small vessel (SVD), cardioembolic (CE), or undetermined events were derived, including adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. Relationships were characterized by mixed linear models. RESULTS: In 909 eligible patients, MCA-PI, PWV, and SBPV were all positively skewed. Mean values were greatest in LAS than CE and lowest in SVD (p < 0.001). However, after adjustment for age, sex, and risk factors, PI was greatest in LAS and lowest in CE stroke, whilst PWV was greatest in SVD and undetermined stroke (p < 0.001). In multivariate linear models, age was more strongly associated with PWV and PI in patients with small vessel stroke than other aetiologies, particularly under the age of 65, but SBPV was only weakly associated with demographic indices in all stroke subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: Intermediate cardiovascular phenotypes of vascular ageing had similar demographic associations between stroke aetiologies, but these were particularly strong in patients with small vessel stroke under the age of 65, implying a potential role of these phenotypes in increasing stroke risk in this patient group.

Agronomic and ionomics indicators of high-yield, mineral-dense, and low-Cd grains of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars.

The accumulation of toxic and essential nutrient elements in wheat grain influences wheat yield, grain nutritional quality, and human health. Here, we assessed the potential for breeding wheat cultivars to combine high yield with low cadmium and high iron and/or zinc concentrations in grains, and we screened appropriate cultivars. A pot experiment was conducted to explore differences in grain cadmium, iron, and zinc concentrations among 68 wheat cultivars, as well as their relationships with other nutrient elements and agronomic characters. The results showed 2.04-, 1.71-, and 1.64-fold differences in grain cadmium, iron, and zinc concentrations, respectively, among the 68 cultivars. Grain cadmium concentration was positively correlated with grain zinc, iron, magnesium, phosphorus, and manganese concentrations. Grain copper concentration was positively correlated with grain zinc and iron concentrations, but not with grain cadmium concentration. Therefore, copper has a potential role in regulating grain iron and zinc accumulation without influencing cadmium concentration in wheat grain. There were no significant relationships between grain cadmium concentration and four important wheat agronomic characters (i.e., grain yield, straw yield, thousand kernel weight, and plant height), indicating that the breeding of low-cadmium-accumulating cultivars with dwarfism and high yield characteristics is possible. On cluster analysis, four cultivars (Ningmai11, Xumai35, Baomai6, and Aikang58) exhibited low-cadmium and high-yield characteristics. Among them, Aikang58 contained moderate iron and zinc concentrations, while Ningmai11 had relatively high iron but low zinc concentrations in the grain. These results imply that it is feasible to breed high-yield dwarf wheat with low cadmium and moderate iron and zinc concentrations in the grain.

Cardiovascular Events After Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

Cardiovascular events after primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) have emerged as a leading cause of poor functional outcomes and mortality during the long-term recovery after an ICH. These events encompass arterial ischemic events such as ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction, arterial hemorrhagic events that include recurrent ICH, and venous thrombotic events such as venous thromboembolism. The purpose of this review is to summarize the cardiovascular complications after ICH, epidemiology and associated risk factors, and their impact on ICH outcomes. Additionally, we will highlight possible pathophysiological mechanisms to explain the short- and long-term increased risks of ischemic and hemorrhagic events after ICH. Finally, we will highlight potential secondary stroke and venous thrombotic prevention strategies often not considered after ICH, balanced against the risk of ICH recurrence.

Long-Term Impact of Urgent Secondary Prevention After Transient Ischemic Attack and Minor Stroke: Ten-Year Follow-Up of the EXPRESS Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Urgent assessment aimed at reducing stroke risk after transient ischemic attack or minor stroke is cost-effective over the short-term. However, it is unclear if the short-term impact is lost on long-term follow-up, with recurrent events being delayed rather than prevented. By 10-year follow-up of the EXPRESS study (Early Use of Existing Preventive Strategies for Stroke), previously showing urgent assessment reduced 90-day stroke risk by 80%, we determined whether that early benefit was still evident long-term for stroke risk, disability, and costs. METHODS: EXPRESS was a prospective population-based before (phase 1: April 2002-September 2004; n=310) versus after (phase 2: October 2004-March 2007; n=281) study of the effect of early assessment and treatment of transient ischemic attack/minor stroke on early recurrent stroke risk, with an external control. This report assesses the effect on 10-year recurrent stroke risk, functional outcomes, quality-of-life, and costs. RESULTS: A reduction in stroke risk in phase 2 was still evident at 10 years (55/23.3% versus 82/31.6%; hazard ratio=0.68 [95% CI, 0.48-0.95]; P=0.024), as was the impact on risk of disabling or fatal stroke (17/7.7% versus 32/13.1%; hazard ratio=0.54 [0.30-0.97]; P=0.036). These effects were due to maintenance of the early reduction in stroke risk, with neither additional benefit nor rebound catch-up after 90 days (post-90 days hazard ratio=0.88 [0.65-1.44], P=0.88; and hazard ratio=0.83 [0.42-1.65], P=0.59, respectively). Disability-free life expectancy was 0.59 (0.03-1.15; P=0.043) years higher in patients in phase 2, as was quality-adjusted life expectancy (0.49 [0.03-0.95]; P=0.036). Overall, 10-year costs were nonsignificantly higher in patients attending the phase 2 clinic ($1022 [-3865-5907]; P=0.66). The additional cost per quality-adjusted life year gained in phase 2 versus phase 1 was $2103, well below current cost-effectiveness thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Urgent assessment and treatment of patients with transient ischemic attack or minor stroke resulted in a long-term reduction in recurrent strokes and improved outcomes, with little atrophy of the early benefit over time, representing good value for money even with a 10-year time horizon. Our results suggest that other effective acute treatments in transient ischemic attack/minor stroke in the short-term will also have the potential to have long-term benefit.

Association of Younger vs Older Ages With Changes in Incidence of Stroke and Other Vascular Events, 2002-2018.

Importance: Some studies have reported increasing stroke incidence at younger ages (<55 years) but have often relied only on administrative data, and more population-based studies of adjudicated stroke are required. An understanding of the drivers of any increase in incidence of young stroke also requires comparisons with stroke trends at older ages and with trends in incidence of other vascular events at younger ages. Objective: To determine temporal changes in incidence of stroke and other major vascular events at younger vs older ages. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective population-based incidence study conducted from April 2002 to March 2018 with a mean catchment population of 94 567 in Oxfordshire, England. Exposures: Calendar time, premorbid vascular risk factors, and occupation. Main Outcomes and Measures: Changes in incidence of stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), and other major vascular events (myocardial infarction, sudden cardiac death, and peripheral vascular events) stratified by age, sex, diagnostic workup, etiology, and severity. Results: A total of 2429 incident strokes were ascertained (mean age, 73.6 [SD, 14.4] years; 51.3% female). From 2002-2010 to 2010-2018, stroke incidence increased significantly among participants younger than 55 years (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.67; 95% CI, 1.31-2.14) but fell significantly among participants aged 55 years or older (IRR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.78-0.92; P < .001 for difference). The significant increase in incidence at younger than 55 years was independent of sex, stroke severity, pathological subtype, and changes in investigation and was also seen for TIA (IRR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.36-2.57) but not for myocardial infarction and other major vascular events (IRR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.58-0.93). Although TIA and stroke at younger than 55 years were significantly associated with diabetes (risk ratio [RR], 3.47; 95% CI, 2.54-4.74), hypertension (RR, 2.52; 95% CI, 2.04-3.12), current smoking (RR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.92-2.94), and obesity (RR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.07-1.72), the significant increase in incidence from 2002-2010 to 2010-2018 was still seen in individuals without these risk factors. The increase was greatest in professional/managerial occupations (IRR, 2.52; 95% CI, 1.75-3.62) and least in partially skilled/unskilled occupations (IRR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.79-1.74). The proportion of TIAs and strokes among those younger than 55 years without known vascular risk factors increased significantly over time (45 [30.4%] vs 115 [42.4%]; absolute difference, 12.0%; 95% CI, 2.6-21.5), especially in patients with cryptogenic events (10 [18.5%] vs 63 [49.2%]; absolute difference, 30.7%; 95% CI, 17.2-44.2; P < .001; P = .002 for heterogeneity). Conclusions and Relevance: Comparing persons living in Oxfordshire, England, in 2002-2010 vs 2010-2018, there was a significant increase in stroke incidence in those younger than 55 years, but a decrease in those aged 55 years or older. Given the absence of this divergence for other vascular events, further research is needed to understand the causes of this difference.

Blood Pressure Control and Recurrent Stroke After Intracerebral Hemorrhage in 2002 to 2018 Versus 1981 to 1986: Population-Based Study.

Background and Purpose: The PROGRESS trial (Perindopril Protection Against Recurrent Stroke Study) conducted in the early 1990s showed that blood pressure (BP) lowering therapy reduced the risks of recurrent stroke by about 50% after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). However, the ICH subgroup was a minority, and trial cohorts are invariably selective. Therefore, it is unclear whether the impact of BP control on risk of recurrent stroke in ICH observed in PROGRESS would be as great in real-world practice. Methods: We compared BP control (mean BP during study follow-up) and risks of recurrent stroke after first-ever primary ICH in 2 colocated population-based studies before and after the PROGRESS trial (1995­2001) in Oxfordshire: Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project (OCSP; 1981­1986) and OXVASC (Oxford Vascular Study; 2002­2018). Results: Two hundred seventy-seven patients (753 patient-years of follow-up) with first-ever primary ICH were ascertained in OXVASC and OCSP. Baseline systolic BP was comparable between the 2 studies (mean/SD=183.8/36.5 in OXVASC versus 178.1/38.2 in OCSP, P=0.30) but among one hundred thirty-seven 90-day survivors, mean BP during follow-up was substantially lower in OXVASC versus OCSP (135.2/16.4 versus 157.3/17.8, P<0.0001). Risks of recurrent stroke (per 100 patient-years) decreased from 10.3 (95% CI, 4.7­19.5) in OCSP to 3.1 (1.8­4.8) in OXVASC (P=0.006), predominantly driven by a reduction at younger ages (5-year risk at age <75 years: 35.4% versus 6.9%, P=0.001; hazard ratio, 0.14 [0.04­0.54]). Conclusions: Risks of recurrent stroke after primary ICH have fallen significantly in Oxfordshire over the past 4 decades, coinciding with substantial improvements in BP control during follow-up.

Body Mass Index and Arterial Stiffness Are Associated With Greater Beat-to-Beat Blood Pressure Variability After Transient Ischemic Attack or Minor Stroke.

[Figure: see text].

Intracranial arterial stenosis in Caucasian versus Chinese patients with TIA and minor stroke: two contemporaneous cohorts and a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Intracranial arterial stenosis (ICAS) is an important cause of stroke worldwide. Separate reports in Caucasians and Asians with stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA) have suggested lower ICAS prevalence in Caucasians, but there has been no direct comparisons of the two ethnic groups with the same criteria to define ICAS. METHODS: Acute minor stroke or TIA patients in two cohorts respectively recruiting patients in Oxford (2011-2018, predominantly Caucasians) and Hong Kong (2011-2015, predominantly Chinese) were compared. ICAS was defined as ≥50% stenosis/occlusion in any major intracranial artery in MR/CT angiography. Prevalence, distribution and risk factors of ICAS were compared between the two cohorts. We also systematically reviewed literature on ICAS prevalence in stroke/TIA patients in different populations. RESULTS: Among 1287 patients from Oxford and 691 from Hong Kong (mean age 69 vs 66), ICAS prevalence was higher in Chinese than in Caucasians (43.0% vs 20.0%; OR 3.02; 95% CI 2.47 to 3.70; p<0.001), independent of age (age-adjusted OR 3.73; 95% CI 3.00 to 4.63; p<0.001) and vascular risk factors (multivariable-adjusted OR 3.21; 95% CI 2.56 to 4.02; p<0.001). This ethnic difference was greater (p interaction=0.005) at age <70 years (OR 5.33; 95% CI 3.79 to 7.50; p<0.001) than at ≥70 years (OR 2.81; 95% CI 2.11 to 3.74; p<0.001). ICAS prevalence increased with age and with vascular risk factors in both cohorts, with equivalent prevalence in Chinese aged <60 years and Caucasians aged ≥80, and in Chinese with no vascular risk factor and Caucasians with two vascular risk factors. ICAS locations also differed between Chinese and Caucasian patients. CONCLUSIONS: Chinese are more susceptible to ICAS than Caucasians, with an earlier onset age and a higher prevalence, independent of vascular risk factors.

BRAF/MAPK and GSK3 signaling converges to control MITF nuclear export.

The close integration of the MAPK, PI3K, and WNT signaling pathways underpins much of development and is deregulated in cancer. In principle, combinatorial posttranslational modification of key lineage-specific transcription factors would be an effective means to integrate critical signaling events. Understanding how this might be achieved is central to deciphering the impact of microenvironmental cues in development and disease. The microphthalmia-associated transcription factor MITF plays a crucial role in the development of melanocytes, the retinal pigment epithelium, osteoclasts, and mast cells and acts as a lineage survival oncogene in melanoma. MITF coordinates survival, differentiation, cell-cycle progression, cell migration, metabolism, and lysosome biogenesis. However, how the activity of this key transcription factor is controlled remains poorly understood. Here, we show that GSK3, downstream from both the PI3K and Wnt pathways, and BRAF/MAPK signaling converges to control MITF nuclear export. Phosphorylation of the melanocyte MITF-M isoform in response to BRAF/MAPK signaling primes for phosphorylation by GSK3, a kinase inhibited by both PI3K and Wnt signaling. Dual phosphorylation, but not monophosphorylation, then promotes MITF nuclear export by activating a previously unrecognized hydrophobic export signal. Nonmelanocyte MITF isoforms exhibit poor regulation by MAPK signaling, but instead their export is controlled by mTOR. We uncover here an unanticipated mode of MITF regulation that integrates the output of key developmental and cancer-associated signaling pathways to gate MITF flux through the import-export cycle. The results have significant implications for our understanding of melanoma progression and stem cell renewal.

Increasing Blood Pressure Variability Predicts Poor Functional Outcome Following Acute Stroke.

INTRODUCTION: Increasing blood pressure variability has been reported following acute stroke, but there is uncertainty about how best to measure it and about the impact on prognosis following acute ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attack. METHODS: Enhanced casual blood pressure and ambulatory blood pressure monitoring were completed at baseline (≤48 h post symptom onset). Blood pressure variability was defined by standard deviation and coefficient of variation of systolic, diastolic, mean arterial pressure, and pulse pressure. Modified Rankin scale score ≥3 described poor functional outcome assessed at 1- and 12-months post-stroke. Multivariable logistic regression models incorporating blood pressure variability measurement and other factors were performed, and odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals reported. RESULTS: 232 patients were recruited; 45 were dependent at 1-month, and 37 at 12-months. Dependent patients were more likely to be older, with a higher burden of pre-morbid conditions, and with increased blood pressure variability. Enhanced casual standard deviations of diastolic blood pressure [1.19 (1.02 to 1.39)] and mean arterial pressure [1.20 (1.00 to 1.43)] predicted dependency at 1-month. Predictors of 12-month dependency included: enhanced casual standard deviation of mean arterial pressure [1.21 (1.0-1.46)]; 24 h ambulatory monitor standard deviations of diastolic blood pressure [2.30 (1.08-4.90)] and mean arterial pressure [1.72 (1.09-2.72)], and the coefficient of variation of mean arterial pressure [1.76 (1.05-2.94)]; day-time ambulatory monitor coefficient of variation of systolic blood pressure [1.44 (1.02-2.03)] and mean arterial pressure [1.46 (1.02-2.08)]; and night-time ambulatory standard deviation of diastolic blood pressure [1.65 (1.03 -2.63)], and the coefficient of variation of mean arterial pressure and [1.38 (1.00- 1.90)] and pulse pressure [1.29 (1.00-1.65)]. CONCLUSION: Increasing blood pressure variability is independently and modestly associated with poor functional outcome at 1- and 12-months following acute stroke.

Etiological Subtypes of Transient Ischemic Attack and Ischemic Stroke in Chronic Kidney Disease: Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is strongly associated with stroke risk, but the mechanisms underlying this association are unclear and might be informed by subtype-specific analyses. However, few studies have reported stroke subtypes in CKD according to established classification systems, such as the TOAST (Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment) criteria. We, therefore, aimed to determine which transient ischemic attack and ischemic stroke subtypes using the TOAST classification occur most frequently in patients with CKD. METHODS: In a population-based study of all transient ischemic attack and stroke (OXVASC [Oxford Vascular Study]; 2002-2017), all ischemic events were classified by TOAST subtypes (cardioembolism, large artery disease, small vessel disease, undetermined, multiple, other etiology, or incompletely investigated). Logistic regression was used to determine the relationship between CKD (defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2) and transient ischemic attack/stroke subtypes adjusted for age, sex, and hypertension and then stratified by age and estimated glomerular filtration rate category. RESULTS: Among 3178 patients with transient ischemic attack (n=1167), ischemic stroke (n=1802), and intracerebral hemorrhage (n=209), 1267 (40%) had CKD. Although there was a greater prevalence of cardioembolic events (31.8% versus 21.2%; P<0.001) in patients with CKD, this association was lost after adjustment for age, sex, and hypertension (adjusted odds ratio=1.20 [95% CI, 0.99-1.45]; P=0.07). Similarly, although patients with CKD had a lower prevalence of small vessel disease (8.8% versus 13.6%; P<0.001), undetermined (26.1% versus 39.4%; P<0.001), and other etiology (1.0% versus 3.6%; P<0.001) subtypes, these associations were also lost after adjustment (adjusted odds ratio=0.86 [0.65-1.13]; P=0.27 and 0.73 [0.36-1.43]; P=0.37 for small vessel disease and other defined etiology, respectively) for all but undetermined (adjusted odds ratio=0.81 [0.67-0.98]; P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: There were no independent positive associations between CKD and specific TOAST subtypes, which suggest that renal-specific risk factors are unlikely to play an important role in the etiology of particular subtypes. Future studies of stroke and CKD should report subtype-specific analyses to gain further insights into potential mechanisms.

Trends in Stroke Incidence in High-Income Countries in the 21st Century: Population-Based Study and Systematic Review.

Background and Purpose- Population-based studies provide the most reliable data on stroke incidence. A previous systematic review of population-based studies suggested that stroke incidence in high-income countries decreased by 42% between the 1970s and early 2000s. However, it is uncertain whether this trend of steady decline has been maintained in more recent periods. Methods- Data from OCSP (Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project; 1981-1986) and OXVASC (Oxford Vascular Study; 2002-2017) along with other published population-based stroke incidence studies that reported temporal trends of stroke incidence since 1990 in high-income countries were included. Age-standardized relative incidence rate ratios were calculated for each study and then pooled with inverse-variance weighted random-effects meta-analysis. Projection estimates were calculated for the number of incident stroke patients in the United Kingdom from year 2015 to 2045. Results- In Oxfordshire, stroke incidence fell by 32% from OCSP to OXVASC, with a similar trend before or after year 2000. With the projected aging population, if the age-specific stroke incidence continued to decrease at its current rate (6% every 5 years), there would still be a 13% increase of the number of first-ever strokes in the United Kingdom up to year 2045. Incorporating the Oxfordshire data with other 12 population-based studies, stroke incidence declined steadily between the 1990s and 2010s within each study, resulting in a 28% decline over an average period of 16.5 years (pooled incidence rate ratio, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.66-0.79]; P<0.0001). The trend was the same for men (0.69 [95% CI, 0.61-0.77]; P<0.0001) and women (0.66 [95% CI, 0.59-0.74]; P<0.0001) and remained consistent after year 2010 in OXVASC. Proportion of disabling or fatal stroke also decreased over time (early versus later period, 53.6% versus 46.1%; P=0.02). Conclusions- Stroke incidence is continuing to decline with steady rate in Oxfordshire and in other high-income settings. However, the absolute number of strokes occurring is not falling.

Confounding of Cerebral Blood Flow Velocity by Blood Pressure During Breath Holding or Hyperventilation in Transient Ischemic Attack or Stroke.

Background and Purpose- Breath holding (BH) and hyperventilation are used to assess abnormal cerebrovascular reactivity, often in relation to severity of small vessel disease and risk of stroke with carotid stenosis, but responses may be confounded by blood pressure (BP) changes. We compared effects of BP and end-tidal carbon dioxide (etCO2) on middle cerebral artery mean flow velocity (MFV) in consecutive transient ischemic attack and minor stroke patients. Methods- In the population-based, prospective OXVASC (Oxford Vascular Study) phenotyped cohort, change in MFV on transcranial Doppler ultrasound (ΔMFV, DWL-DopplerBox), beat-to-beat BP (Finometer), and etCO2 was measured during 30 seconds of BH or hyperventilation. Two blinded reviewers independently assessed recording quality. Dependence of ΔMFV on ΔBP and ΔetCO2 was determined by general linear models, stratified by quartiles. Results- Four hundred eighty-eight of 602 (81%) patients with adequate bone windows had high-quality recordings, more often in younger participants (64.6 versus 68.7 years; P<0.01), whereas 426 had hyperventilation tests (70.7%). During BH, ΔMFV was correlated with a rise in mean blood pressure (MBP; r2=0.15, P<0.001) but not ΔCO2 (r2=0.002, P=0.32), except in patients with ΔMBP <10% (r2=0.13, P<0.001). In contrast during hyperventilation, the fall in MFV was similarly correlated with reduction in CO2 and reduction in MBP (ΔCO2: r2=0.13, P<0.001; ΔMBP: r2=0.12, P<0.001), with a slightly greater effect of ΔCO2 when ΔMBP was <10% (r2=0.15). Stratifying by quartile, MFV increased linearly during BH across quartiles of ΔMBP, with no increase with ΔetCO2. In contrast, during hyperventilation, MFV decreased linearly with ΔetCO2, independent of ΔMBP. Conclusions- In older patients with recent transient ischemic attack or minor stroke, cerebral blood flow responses to BH were confounded by BP changes but reflected etCO2 change during hyperventilation. Correct interpretation of cerebrovascular reactivity responses to etCO2, including in small vessel disease and carotid stenosis, requires concurrent BP measurement.

Ten-year risks of recurrent stroke, disability, dementia and cost in relation to site of primary intracerebral haemorrhage: population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with primary intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) are at increased long-term risks of recurrent stroke and other comorbidities. However, available estimates come predominantly from hospital-based studies with relatively short follow-up. Moreover, there are also uncertainties about the influence of ICH location on risks of recurrent stroke, disability, dementia and quality of life. METHODS: In a population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study/2002-2018) of patients with a first ICH with follow-up to 10 years, we determined the long-term risks of recurrent stroke, disability, quality of life, dementia and hospital care costs stratified by haematoma location. RESULTS: Of 255 cases with primary ICH (mean/SD age 75.5/13.1), 109 (42.7%) had lobar ICH, 144 (56.5%) non-lobar ICH and 2 (0.8%) had uncertain location. Annual rates of recurrent ICH were higher after lobar versus non-lobar ICH (lobar=4.0%, 2.7-7.2 vs 1.1%, 0.3-2.8; p=0.02). Moreover, cumulative rate of dementia was also higher for lobar versus non-lobar ICH (n/% lobar=20/36.4% vs 16/20.8%, p=0.047), and there was a higher proportion of disability at 5 years in survivors (15/60.0% vs 9/31.0%, p=0.03). The 10-year quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were also lower after lobar versus non-lobar ICH (2.9 vs 3.8 for non-lobar, p=0.04). Overall, the mean 10-year censor-adjusted costs were £19 292, with over 80% of costs due to inpatient hospital admission costs, which did not vary by haematoma location (p=0.90). CONCLUSION: Compared with non-lobar ICH, the substantially higher 10-year risks of recurrent stroke, dementia and lower QALYs after lobar ICH highlight the need for more effective prevention for this patient group.

Time Trends in Atrial Fibrillation-Associated Stroke and Premorbid Anticoagulation: Population-Based Study and Systematic Review.

Background and Purpose- Prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasing, but the impact on overall burden of stroke is uncertain, as is the proportion that could be attributed to under anticoagulation. We did a population-based study of AF-associated stroke and a systematic review of time trends in other stroke incidence studies and of rates of premorbid anticoagulation. Methods- The proportion of incident strokes with associated AF was determined in the OXVASC (Oxford Vascular Study; 2002-2017) and in other prospective, population-based stroke incidence studies published before December 2017. Proportions were pooled by Mantel Haenszel methods, and the pooled percentage of cases with premorbid anticoagulation was determined. Analyses were stratified by the age of study population, mid-study year, country, and ethnicity. Results- Of 1928 patients with incident ischemic stroke in OXVASC, 629 (32.6%; 95% CI, 30.5-34.7) were AF associated, consistent with the pooled estimate from 4 smaller studies over the same study period (608/1948; 31.2%, 30.0-32.4; Phet=0.80). The pooled estimate from all studies reporting premorbid AF over 25 million person-years of observation (1960 onwards; 33 reports) was lower (18.6%, 16.8-20.3) and more heterogeneous (Phet<0.0001), but 62% of heterogeneity was explained by the age of study population, study period, country, and ethnicity. The proportion of incident strokes on premorbid anticoagulation increased over time, both for ischemic stroke in OXVASC (2002-2007: 15.1%, 2008-2012: 19.6%, and 2013-2017: 35.9%; Ptrend<0.0001), and across all studies (P=0.002), but the pooled estimates suggested substantial undertreatment even in the most recent periods (2001-2015: 25.7%, 21.1-30.3 and ≥2010: 31.6%, 18.2-44.9). Conclusions- About 1 in 3 incident ischemic strokes are still AF associated, due partly to low rates of anticoagulation for known prior AF, which therefore represents a major public health opportunity to reduce the burden of stroke.

Essen Risk Score in Prediction of Myocardial Infarction After Transient Ischemic Attack or Ischemic Stroke Without Prior Coronary Artery Disease.

Background and Purpose- More intensive secondary prevention with newer drugs may be cost-effective in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Whether some subgroups of patients who had a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke, but no prior CAD are at similar high risk of myocardial infarction as those with prior CAD remains unclear. We determined whether the Essen score identified a subset of TIA/stroke patients without known prior CAD who, nevertheless, had a high risk of myocardial infarction on current secondary prevention management. Methods- In a population-based cohort (Oxford Vascular Study) of consecutive TIA or ischemic stroke patients recruited from 2002 to 2014, 10-year actuarial risks of myocardial infarction and of recurrent ischemic stroke were determined by face-to-face follow-up in patients with and without prior CAD using Kaplan-Meier analyses. Predictive value of the Essen score was assessed with C statistic. Results- Of 2555 patients with TIA/stroke (13 070 patient-years of follow-up), 10-year risk of myocardial infarction in those without prior CAD (n=2017, 78.9%) ranged from 0.9% (95% CI, 0-1.9) at Essen score ≤1 to 29.8% (95% CI, 7.7-46.6) in those with a score ≥5 (C statistic =0.64 [95% CI, 0.57-0.71]; P<0.001). The score tended to be less predictive (difference: P=0.0460) for the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke (C statistic =0.57 [95% CI, 0.54-0.60]). Compared with patients with prior CAD (n=538, 21.1%), an Essen risk score of ≥4 (n=294, 11.5%) in those without prior CAD identified a subgroup at similar high 10-year risks of myocardial infarction (17.2% [95% CI, 6.9-26.3] versus 16.9% [95% CI, 11.5-22.0]) and of recurrent stroke (40.4% [95% CI, 26.7-51.6] versus 32.4% [95% CI, 25.2-38.8]). Conclusions- The Essen score is a simple clinical score to risk-stratify patients with TIA/stroke without prior CAD and to identify subsets who may be at sufficiently high risk of myocardial infarction and recurrent stroke to justify more intensive treatment or inclusion in trials.

Long-Term Risk of Stroke After Transient Global Amnesia in Two Prospective Cohorts.

Background and Purpose- Transient global amnesia (TGA) is known as a benign syndrome, but recent data from neuroradiological studies support an ischemic cause in some cases, which might suggest an increased susceptibility to cerebrovascular events. We determined the long-term risk of stroke after a first TGA in 2 independent prospective cohorts. Methods- In 2 independent prospective cohorts of patients with TGA (OXVASC [Oxford Vascular Study], population-based; NU (Northern Umbria) cohort, TGA registry), cardiovascular risk factors and long-term outcomes, including stroke and major cardiovascular events, were identified on follow-up. Cardiovascular risk factors were treated according to primary prevention guidelines. In OXVASC, the age-/sex-adjusted risk of stroke during follow-up was compared with that expected from the rate in the underlying study population. Results- Among 525 patients with TGA (425 NU and 100 OXVASC), mean (SD) age was 65.1 (9.5) years and 42.5% male. Hypertension (58.1%), dyslipidemia (40.4%), and smoking (36.4%) were the most frequent cardiovascular risk factors. The risk of stroke was similar in the 2 cohorts, with a pooled annual risk of 0.6% (95% CI, 0.4-0.9) and a 5-year cumulative risk of 2.7% (1.1-4.3). Moreover, the stroke risk in OXVASC cases was no greater than that expected in the underlying study population (adjusted relative risk=0.73; 0.12-4.54; P=0.74). Conclusions- TGA does not carry an increased risk of stroke, at least when cardiovascular risk factors are treated according to primary prevention guidelines.