Air Quality, Health, and Equity Benefits of Carbon Neutrality and Clean Air Pathways in China.

In the pursuit of carbon neutrality, China's 2060 targets have been largely anchored in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with less emphasis on the consequential benefits for air quality and public health. This study pivots to this critical nexus, exploring how China's carbon neutrality aligns with the World Health Organization's air quality guidelines (WHO AQG) regarding fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure. Coupling a technology-rich integrated assessment model, an emission-concentration response surface model, and exposure and health assessment, we find that decarbonization reduces sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and PM2.5 emissions by more than 90%; reduces nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) by more than 50%; and simultaneously reduces the disparities across regions. Critically, our analysis reveals that further targeted reductions in air pollutants, notably NH3 and non-energy-related NMVOCs, could bring most Chinese cities into attainment of WHO AQG for PM2.5 5 to 10 years earlier than the pathway focused solely on carbon neutrality. Thus, the integration of air pollution control measures into carbon neutrality strategies will present a significant opportunity for China to attain health and environmental equality.

Air quality and health benefits for different heating decarbonization pathways in China.

The urgent need for decarbonization in China's heating system, comprised of approximately one hundred thousand boilers, is imperative to meet climate and clean air objectives. To formulate national and regional strategies, we developed an integrated model framework that combines a facility-level emission inventory, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then explore the air quality and health benefits of alternative heating decarbonization pathways, including the retirement of coal-fired industrial boilers (CFIBs) for replacement with grid-bound heat supply systems, coal-to-gas conversion, and coal-to-biomass conversion. The gas replacement pathway shows the greatest potential for reducing PM2.5 concentration by 2.8 (2.3-3.4) µg/m3 by 2060, avoiding 23,100 (19,600-26,500) premature deaths. In comparison, the biomass replacement pathway offers slightly lower environmental and health benefits, but is likely to reduce costs by approximately two-thirds. Provincially, optimal pathways vary - Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Chongqing favor coal-to-gas conversion, while Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi show promise in CFIBs retirement. Henan leads in environmental and health benefits. Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Jilin, rich in biomass resources, present opportunities for coal-to-biomass conversion.

Unpacking the factors contributing to changes in PM2.5-associated mortality in China from 2013 to 2019.

From 2013 to 2019, a series of air pollution control actions significantly reduced PM2.5 pollution in China. Control actions included changes in activity levels, structural adjustment (SA) policy, energy and material saving (EMS) policy, and end-of-pipe (EOP) control in several sources, which have not been systematically studied in previous studies. Here, we integrate an emission inventory, a chemical transport model, a health impact assessment model, and a scenario analysis to quantify the contribution of each control action across a range of major emission sources to the changes in PM2.5 concentrations and associated mortality in China from 2013 to 2019. Assuming equal toxicity of PM2.5 from all the sources, we estimate that PM2.5-related mortality decreased from 2.52 (95 % confidence interval, 2.13-2.88) to 1.94 (1.62-2.24) million deaths. Anthropogenic emission reductions and declining baseline incidence rates significantly contributed to health benefits, but population aging partially offset their impact. Among the major sources, controls on power plants and industrial boilers were responsible for the highest reduction in PM2.5-related mortality (∼80 %), followed by industrial processes (∼40 %), residential combustion (∼40 %), and transportation (∼30 %). However, considering the potentially higher relative risks of power plant PM2.5, the adverse effects avoided by their control could be ∼2.4 times the current estimation. Our power plant sensitivity analyses indicate that future estimates of source-specific PM2.5 health effects should incorporate variations in individual source PM2.5 effect coefficients when available. As for the control actions, while activity levels increased for most sources, SA policy significantly reduced the emissions in residential combustion and industrial boilers, and EOP control dominated the contribution in health benefits in most sources except residential combustion. Considering the emission reduction potential by source and control actions in 2019, our results suggest that promoting clean energy in residential combustion and enforcing more stringent EOP control in the iron and steel industry should be prioritized in the future.