Exploring microstructure and petrophysical properties of microporous volcanic rocks through 3D multiscale and super-resolution imaging.

Digital rock physics offers powerful perspectives to investigate Earth materials in 3D and non-destructively. However, it has been poorly applied to microporous volcanic rocks due to their challenging microstructures, although they are studied for numerous volcanological, geothermal and engineering applications. Their rapid origin, in fact, leads to complex textures, where pores are dispersed in fine, heterogeneous and lithified matrices. We propose a framework to optimize their investigation and face innovative 3D/4D imaging challenges. A 3D multiscale study of a tuff was performed through X-ray microtomography and image-based simulations, finding that accurate characterizations of microstructure and petrophysical properties require high-resolution scans (≤ 4 µm/px). However, high-resolution imaging of large samples may need long times and hard X-rays, covering small rock volumes. To deal with these limitations, we implemented 2D/3D convolutional neural network and generative adversarial network-based super-resolution approaches. They can improve the quality of low-resolution scans, learning mapping functions from low-resolution to high-resolution images. This is one of the first efforts to apply deep learning-based super-resolution to unconventional non-sedimentary digital rocks and real scans. Our findings suggest that these approaches, and mainly 2D U-Net and pix2pix networks trained on paired data, can strongly facilitate high-resolution imaging of large microporous (volcanic) rocks.

Seismic and thermal precursors of crater collapses and overflows at Stromboli volcano.

Lava overflows are highly hazardous phenomena that can occur at Stromboli. They can destabilize the crater area and the "Sciara del Fuoco" unstable slope, formed by several sector collapses, which can generate potentially tsunamigenic landslides. In this study, we have identified precursors of the October-November 2022 effusive crisis through seismic and thermal camera measurements. We analyzed the lava overflow on October 9, which was preceded by a crater-rim collapse, and the overflow on November 16. In both cases, seismic precursors anticipating the overflow onset have been observed. The analysis of the seismic and thermal data led to the conclusion that the seismic precursors were caused by an escalating degassing process from the eruptive vent, which climaxed with the overflows. Volcano deformation derived from ground-based InSAR and strainmeter data showed that inflation of the crater area accompanied the escalating degassing process up to the beginning of the lava overflows. The inflation of the crater area was especially evident in the October 9 episode, which also showed a longer seismic precursor compared to the November 16 event (58 and 40 min respectively). These results are important for understanding Stromboli's eruptive mechanisms and open a perspective for early warning of potentially dangerous phenomena.

Data analysis of the unsteadily accelerating GPS and seismic records at Campi Flegrei caldera from 2000 to 2020.

Ongoing resurgence affects Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) via bradyseism, i.e. a series of ground deformation episodes accompanied by increases in shallow seismicity. In this study, we perform a mathematical analysis of the GPS and seismic data in the instrumental catalogs from 2000 to 2020, and a comparison of them to the preceding data from 1983 to 1999. We clearly identify and characterize two overlying trends, i.e. a decennial-like acceleration and cyclic oscillations with various periods. In particular, we show that all the signals have been accelerating since 2005, and 90-97% of their increase has occurred since 2011, 40-80% since 2018. Nevertheless, the seismic and ground deformation signals evolved differently-the seismic count increased faster than the GPS data since 2011, and even more so since 2015, growing faster than an exponential function The ground deformation has a linearized rate slope, i.e. acceleration, of 0.6 cm/yr2 and 0.3 cm/yr2 from 2000 to 2020, respectively for the vertical (RITE GPS) and the horizontal (ACAE GPS) components. In addition, all annual rates show alternating speed-ups and slow-downs, consistent between the signals. We find seven major rate maxima since 2000, one every 2.8-3.5 years, with secondary maxima at fractions of the intervals. A cycle with longer period of 6.5-9 years is also identified. Finally, we apply the probabilistic failure forecast method, a nonlinear regression that calculates the theoretical time limit of the signals going to infinity (interpreted here as a critical state potentially reached by the volcano), conditional on the continuation of the observed nonlinear accelerations. Since 2000, we perform a retrospective analysis of the temporal evolution of these forecasts which highlight the periods of more intense acceleration. The failure forecast method applied on the seismic count from 2001 to 2020 produces upper time limits of [0, 3, 11] years (corresponding to the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles, respectively), significantly shorter than those based on the GPS data, e.g. [0, 6, 21] years. Such estimates, only valid under the model assumption of continuation of the ongoing decennial-like acceleration, warn to keep the guard up on the future evolution of Campi Flegrei caldera.

Geophysical precursors of the July-August 2019 paroxysmal eruptive phase and their implications for Stromboli volcano (Italy) monitoring.

Two paroxysmal explosions occurred at Stromboli volcano in the Summer 2019, the first of which, on July 3, caused one fatality and some injuries. Within the 56 days between the two paroxysmal explosions, effusive activity from vents located in the summit area of the volcano occurred. No significant changes in routinely monitored parameters were detected before the paroxysmal explosions. However, we have calculated the polarization and the fractal dimension time series of the seismic signals from November 15, 2018 to September 15, 2019 and we have recognized variations that preceded the paroxysmal activity. In addition, we have defined a new parameter, based on RSAM estimation, related to the Very Long Period events, called VLP size, by means of which we have noticed significant variations through the whole month preceding the paroxysm of July 3. In the short term, we have analyzed the signals of a borehole strainmeter installed on the island, obtaining automatic triggers 10 minutes and 7.5 minutes before the July 3 and the August 28 paroxysms, respectively. The results of this study highlight mid-term seismic precursors of paroxysmal activity and provide valuable evidence for the development of an early warning system for paroxysmal explosions based on strainmeter measurements.

First muography of Stromboli volcano.

Muography consists in observing the differential absorption of muons - elementary particles produced through cosmic-ray interactions in the Earth atmosphere - going through the volcano and can attain a spatial resolution of tens of meters. We present here the first experiment of nuclear emulsion muography at the Stromboli volcano. Muons have been recorded during a period of five months by a detector of 0.96 m2 area. The emulsion films were prepared at the Gran Sasso underground laboratory and were analyzed at Napoli, Salerno and Tokyo scanning laboratories. Our results highlight a significant low-density zone at the summit of the volcano with density contrast of 30-40% with respect to bedrock. The structural setting of this part of the volcanic edifice controls the eruptive dynamics and the stability of the "Sciara del Fuoco" slope, which is affected by recurrent tsunamigenic landslides. Periodical imaging of the summit of the Stromboli volcano such as that provided by muography can become a useful method for studying the evolution of the internal structure of the volcanic edifice.

Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

Magma injection beneath the urban area of Naples: a new mechanism for the 2012-2013 volcanic unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera.

We found the first evidence, in the last 30 years, of a renewed magmatic activity at Campi Flegrei caldera from January 2012 to June 2013. The ground deformation, observed through satellite interferometry and GPS measurements, have been interpreted as the effect of the intrusion at shallow depth (3090 ± 138 m) of 0.0042 ± 0.0002 km(3) of magma within a sill. This interrupts about 28 years of dominant hydrothermal activity and occurs in the context of an unrest phase which began in 2005 and within a more general ground uplift that goes on since 1950. This discovery has implications on the evaluation of the volcanic risk and in the volcanic surveillance of this densely populated area.