A perspective on early detection systems models for COVID-19 spreading.

The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic highlights the need for effective tools capable of predicting the onset of infection outbreaks at their early stages. The tracing of confirmed cases and the prediction of the local dynamics of contagion through early indicators are crucial measures to a successful fight against emerging infectious diseases (EID). The proposed framework is model-free and applies Early Warning Detection Systems (EWDS) techniques to detect changes in the territorial spread of infections in the very early stages of onset. This study uses publicly available raw data on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 mainly sourced from the database of the Italian Civil Protection Department. Two distinct EWDS approaches, the Hub-Jones (H&J) and Strozzi-Zaldivar (S&Z), are adapted and applied to the current SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. They promptly generate warning signals and detect the onset of an epidemic at early surveillance stages even if working on the limited daily available, open-source data. Additionally, EWDS S&Z criterion is theoretically validated on the basis of the epidemiological SIR. Discussed EWDS successfully analyze self-accelerating systems, like the SARS-CoV-2 scenario, to precociously identify an epidemic spread through the calculation of onset parameters. This approach can also facilitate early clustering detection, further supporting common fight strategies against the spread of EIDs. Overall, we are presenting an effective tool based on solid scientific and methodological foundations to be used to complement medical actions to contrast the spread of infections such as COVID-19.

Microwave-assisted synthesis of isosorbide-derived diols for the preparation of thermally stable thermoplastic polyurethane.

In order to prepare thermally stable isosorbide-derived thermoplastic polyurethane, the synthesis of two new chiral exo-exo configured diols, prepared from isosorbide, and two types of diphenols (bisphenol A and thiodiphenol) was described. The synthesis conditions were optimized under conventional heating and microwave irradiations. To prove their suitability in polymerization, these monomers were successfully polymerized using 4,4'-diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI) and hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI). Both monomers and polymers have been studied by NMR, FT-IR, TGA, DSC; intrinsic viscosity of polymers has also been determined. The results showed the effectiveness of the synthetic strategy proposed; moreover, a dramatic reduction of the reaction time and an important improvement of the monomers yield using microwave irradiation have been demonstrated. The monomers, as well as the polymers, showed excellent thermal stability both in air and nitrogen. It was also shown that the introduction of sulphur in the polyurethane backbone was effective in delaying the onset of degradation as well as the degradation rate.

[Escherichia coli-induced emphysematous pyelonephritis in a diabetic patient with polycystic kidney disease]. / Pielonefrite enfisematosa da escherichia coli in una paziente diabetica con reni policistici.

Emphysematous pyelonephritis is a rare, necrotizing infection of the kidney and the perirenal space resulting in the formation of gas in both structures and associated with a high mortality rate. In 90% of cases it affects one kidney only; in the remaining 10% with bilateral emphysematous pyelonephritis aggressive surgical intervention may be required. Women are much more frequently affected than men, with diabetes mellitus (in 70-90% of cases) and urinary tract obstruction being common predisposing conditions. The pathogenesis of the disease is linked to four main factors: the presence of gasforming bacteria; hyperglycemia; inadequate tissue perfusion; and reduced immune response. Lactose-fermenting bacteria such as Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae are the most common infectious agents. We report a case of unilateral emphysematous pyelonephritis due to a ruptured cyst infected by E. coli in a diabetic patient with polycystic kidney disease. The resulting septic shock necessitated an emergency right nephrectomy.

Progression of chronic kidney disease: the role of blood pressure control, proteinuria, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition: a patient-level meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors reduce blood pressure and urine protein excretion and slow the progression of chronic kidney disease. PURPOSE: To determine the levels of blood pressure and urine protein excretion associated with the lowest risk for progression of chronic kidney disease during antihypertensive therapy with and without ACE inhibitors. DATA SOURCES: 11 randomized, controlled trials comparing the efficacy of antihypertensive regimens with or without ACE inhibitors for patients with predominantly nondiabetic kidney disease. STUDY SELECTION: MEDLINE database search for English-language studies published between 1977 and 1999. DATA EXTRACTION: Data on 1860 nondiabetic patients were pooled in a patient-level meta-analysis. Progression of kidney disease was defined as a doubling of baseline serum creatinine level or onset of kidney failure. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to assess the association of systolic and diastolic blood pressure and urine protein excretion with kidney disease progression at 22 610 patient visits. DATA SYNTHESIS: Mean duration of follow-up was 2.2 years. Kidney disease progression was documented in 311 patients. Systolic blood pressure of 110 to 129 mm Hg and urine protein excretion less than 2.0 g/d were associated with the lowest risk for kidney disease progression. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors remained beneficial after adjustment for blood pressure and urine protein excretion (relative risk, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.53 to 0.84]). The increased risk for kidney progression at higher systolic blood pressure levels was greater in patients with urine protein excretion greater than 1.0 g/d (P < 0.006). CONCLUSION: Although reverse causation cannot be excluded with certainty, a systolic blood pressure goal between 110 and 129 mm Hg may be beneficial in patients with urine protein excretion greater than 1.0 g/d. Systolic blood pressure less than 110 mm Hg may be associated with a higher risk for kidney disease progression.

Diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound dilution access blood flow measurement in detecting stenosis and predicting thrombosis in native forearm arteriovenous fistulae for hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: Vascular access surveillance by ultrasound dilution blood flow rate (Qa) measurement is widely recommended; however, optimal criteria for detecting stenosis and predicting thrombosis in arteriovenous fistulae (AVFs) are still not clearly defined. METHODS: In a blinded trial, we evaluated the accuracy of single Qa measurement, Qa adjusted for mean arterial pressure (Qa/MAP), and decrease in Qa over time (dQa) in detecting stenosis and predicting thrombosis in an unselected population of 120 hemodialysis subjects with native forearm AVFs (91 AVFs, located at the wrist; 29 AVFs, located at the midforearm). All AVFs underwent fistulography, which identified greater than 50% stenosis in 54 cases. RESULTS: Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that dQa, Qa, and Qa/MAP have a high stenosis discriminative ability with similar areas under the curve (AUCs), ie, 0.961 +/- 0.025, 0.946 +/- 0.021, and 0.912 +/- 0.032, respectively. In the population as a whole, optimal thresholds for stenosis were Qa less than 750 mL/min alone and in combination with dQa greater than 25% (efficiency, 90%); however, the best threshold depended on anastomotic site; it was Qa less than 750 mL/min for an AVF at the wrist and Qa less than 1,000 mL/min for an AVF in the midforearm. Qa was the best predictor of incipient thrombosis (AUC, 0.981 +/- 0.013) with an optimal threshold at less than 300 mL/min (efficiency, 94%). Pooled intra-assay and interassay variation coefficients were 8.2% for MAP, 7.9% for Qa, and 11.2% for Qa/MAP. CONCLUSION: Our study shows that ultrasound dilution Qa measurement is a reproducible and highly accurate tool for detecting stenosis and predicting thrombosis in forearm AVFs. Neither Qa/MAP nor dQa improve the diagnostic performance of Qa alone, although its combination with dQa increases the test's sensitivity for stenosis.

Efficacy and tolerability of manidipine in the treatment of hypertension in patients with non-diabetic chronic kidney disease without glomerular disease. Prospective, randomized, double-blind study of parallel groups in comparison with enalapril.

BACKGROUND: Calcium channel blockers (CCBs) are effective blood pressure lowering agents, giving rise to a prevalent dilation of the afferent arteriole. Manidipine, a long-lasting dihydropyridine CCB, demonstrates its action not only on the afferent arteriole, but also on the efferent one. This suggests theoretically a renoprotective effect in patients with chronic kidney diseases (CKD). METHODS: This was a multicenter, prospective, randomized, double-blind, parallel group study, to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of manidipine (M; 10-20 mg/day), in comparison with enalapril (E; 10-20 mg/day) in the treatment of hypertension in 136 patients with CKD secondary to primary renoparenchymal disease. Changes in blood pressure values from baseline were considered as the primary outcome of the study. Proteinuria changes and the rate of renal function decline were also evaluated. RESULTS: During a 48-week follow-up, mean SBP decreased from 155+/-11.7 to 138.7+/-13.9 mmHg in M and from 157.3 +/-11.8 to 134.2+/-13.9 mmHg in E; mean DBP decreased from 100.3+/-4.2 to 86.1+/-6.5 mmHg in M and from 100.3+/-4.2 to 84.7+/-6.3 mmHg in E. Proteinuria remained unchanged in M (from 1.6+/-1.59 to 1.62+/-1.79 g/24h), and decreased significantly in E (from 1.37+/-1.45 g/24h to 1+/-1.55 g/24h). No significant difference was observed in the rate of renal function decline in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Manidipine was safe and effective, obtaining a significant reduction in SBP and DBP from baseline. Although patients treated with enalapril showed a better antiproteinuric response, the two treatments were equally effective in reducing the rate of CRF progression in patients without glomerular disease.

Is the simian virus SV40 associated with idiopathic focal segmental glomerulosclerosis in humans?

BACKGROUND: Glomerulosclerosis was reported in mice transgenic for the simian polyomavirus SV40 early region that contains the transforming sequences encoding the SV40 large T-antigen (TAG). This was discovered when an SV40 epidemic occurred following the use of contaminated polio vaccines during 1955-1963, and led to investigations that showed an association between SV40 infection and tumors in humans. We investigated the possible association of SV40 infection and idiopathic focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). METHODS: The study was performed in 17 Bouin-fixed, paraffin-embedded renal biopsies from FSGS patients and 10 matched biopsies from patients with IgA glomerulonephritis; all patients had undergone polio vaccination in the early 1960s. Extracted DNA was polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplified using SV.for3/SV.rev primers and GabE1/GabE2 primers; both sets of primers map in the region of SV40 TAG sequences, and amplify a fragment of respectively 105-bp and 135-bp. The biopsies considered were those in which the DNA was sufficiently intact to allow amplification of a fragment of 102-bp of the ApoE gene. RESULTS: Three FSGS and none of the IgA biopsies were positive for the SV.for3/SV.rev fragment. Conversely, amplification with GabE1/GabE2 primers did not lead to any specific product in either the IgA or FSGS biopsies. Restriction fragment length polymorphism and sequencing analyses revealed that the positive results obtained with the SV.for3/SV.rev primers were due to amplicons generated by multiple dimerization of forward and reverse primers. CONCLUSIONS: With the limited number of patients investigated, this study excludes the hypothesis that SV40 is associated with idiopathic FSGS.

Investigation of an accident in a resins manufacturing site: the role of accelerator on polymerisation of methyl methacrylate.

This paper analyzes the effect of an accelerator on the polymerisation of methyl methacrylate (MMA). This study is based on the results of an investigation of an accident in a manufacturing site for resins located in the United Kingdom. As sequence of event to cause the accident the following was assumed: during an unattended batch process a runaway undesired polymerisation of methyl methacrylate occurred, generating rapid vaporisation of monomer, which in contact with an ignition source, led to an explosion followed by a fire. Since no initiator for the polymerisation reaction had been jet added to the blend, it was supposed that the accelerator contributed to the onset of the undesired polymerisation. The accelerator involved in the accident t has therefore been tested by differential scanning calorimetry and adiabatic calorimetry. The experimental data allowed the authors to prove the hypothesis made and to define safety ranges for the polymerisation reaction.

The effect of angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors on progression of advanced polycystic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: It is not known whether angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitors slow the progression of polycystic kidney disease (PKD). We performed a patient-level meta-analysis to compare the effect of antihypertensive regimens, including ACE inhibitors, to those without ACE inhibitors (controls) on kidney disease progression in patients with PKD. METHODS: We analyzed a database of 11 randomized controlled trials including 1860 patients with nondiabetic kidney disease. We compared randomized groups for the decline in urine protein excretion and kidney disease progression (combined outcome of doubling of baseline serum creatinine or onset of kidney failure). We also performed multivariable linear regression and Cox proportional hazards analyses. Based on previous findings, we searched for interactions between the treatment effect (effect of ACE inhibitors vs. controls) and baseline urine protein excretion in both models. RESULTS: Eight studies included a total of 142 subjects with PKD: 68 (48%) were randomized to ACE inhibitors and 74 (52%) were randomized to the control. Baseline mean (SD) urine protein excretion was 0.92 (1.40) g/day: 1.08 (1.50) g/day in the ACE inhibitor and 0.76 (1.28) g/day in the control group. During a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, mean (SD) urine protein excretion declined by 0.33 (1.11) g/day in the ACE inhibitor group and increased by 0.19 (0.88) g/day in the control group (P < 0.001). Kidney disease progression occurred in 50 patients: 20 patients (29%) in the ACE inhibitor group and 30 patients (41%) in the control group (P= 0.17). ACE inhibitors had a greater effect on lowering urine protein excretion and slowing kidney disease progression in patients with higher levels of baseline urine protein excretion (interaction P < 0.001 and P= 0.03, respectively). CONCLUSION: As in other causes of non-diabetic kidney disease, antihypertensive regimens with ACE inhibitors are more effective in lowering urine protein excretion in patients with advanced PKD compared to regimens without ACE inhibitors, and this benefit is greater in patients with higher levels of baseline urine protein excretion. The effect of ACE inhibitors to slow kidney disease progression in PKD is inconclusive.

Lessons from large interventional trials on antihypertensive therapy in chronic renal disease.

Studies in animal models have shown a convincing role for hypertension in the progression of renal disease. However, in clinical studies, the relationship between hypertension and progression is difficult to demonstrate owing to confounding factors such as age, gender, race, difficulty in identifying blood pressure (BP) parameters that correlate with progression, abnormal circadian BP pattern, and many non-haemodynamic factors of progression. A recent meta-analysis of several studies has shown that pharmacological agents that reduce both BP and proteinuria (U(P)), particularly angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, significantly slow the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease. In these studies, lower achieved BP in patients both with and without U(P) was associated with slower decline in renal function. ACE inhibitors are effective BP-lowering agents and are associated with improved preservation of renal function compared with antihypertensive regimens without ACE inhibitors. The protective effect of ACE inhibition is additional to the effect of reducing BP and U(P).

A prospective controlled trial on effect of percutaneous transluminal angioplasty on functioning arteriovenous fistulae survival.

Balloon angioplasty (PTA) is an established treatment modality for stenosis in dysfunctional arteriovenous fistulae (AVF), although most studies showing efficacy have been retrospective, uncontrolled, and nonrandomized. In addition, it is unknown whether correction of stenosis not associated with significant hemodynamic, functional, and clinical abnormality may improve survival in AVF. This study was a prospective controlled open trial to evaluate whether prophylactic PTA of stenosis not associated with access dysfunction improves survival in native, virgin, radiocephalic forearm AVF. Sixty-two stenotic, functioning AVF, i.e., able to provide adequate dialysis, were enrolled in the study: 30 were allocated to control and 32 to PTA. End points of the study were either AVF thrombosis or surgical revision due to reduction in delivered dialysis dose. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that PTA improved AVF functional failure-free survival rates (P = 0.012) with a fourfold increase in median survival and a 2.87-fold decrease in risk of failure. Cox proportional hazard model identified PTA as the only variable associated with outcome (P = 0.012). PTA induced an increase in access blood flow rate (Qa) by 323 (236 to 445) ml/min (P < 0.001), suggesting that improved AVF survival is the result of increased Qa. PTA was also associated with a significant decrease in access-related morbidity by approximately halving the risk of hospitalization, central venous catheterization, and thrombectomy (P < 0.05). This study shows that prophylactic PTA of stenosis in functioning forearm AVF improves access survival and decreases access-related morbidity, supporting the usefulness of preventive correction of stenosis before the development of access dysfunction. It also strongly supports surveillance program for early detection of stenosis.

Precocious activation of genes of the renin-angiotensin system and the fibrogenic cascade in IgA glomerulonephritis.

BACKGROUND: The renin-angiotensin system (RAS) seems to play a pivotal role in progression of immunoglobulin A (IgA) nephropathy (IgAN). Accordingly, in patients with IgAN a relationship between the RAS and the fibrogenic cascade triggered by transforming growth factor-beta1 (TGF-beta1) should be observed. This study was carried out to obtain deeper insight into the regulation of RAS and the interaction with TGF-beta1 in the diseased kidney. METHODS: Twenty renal biopsies from IgAN patients and five from renal cancer patients (controls) were analyzed in both microdissected glomerular and tubulointerstitial compartments by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). All patients had normal renal function. The expression of the following genes was determined: angiotensinogen (Agtg), renin, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE), angiotensin II (Ang II) type 1 and type II (AT1 and AT2 receptors), TGF-beta1, collagen IV (Coll IV), alpha-smooth muscle actin (alpha-SMA). Quantitative data were confirmed for TGF-beta1 and ACE genes by real-time PCR. Results. RAS genes were overexpressed in IgAN patients vs. control subjects. There was no difference between glomerular and tubulointerstitial RAS gene expression levels. On the contrary, the overactivation of fibrogenic cascade genes (TGF-beta1, Coll IV, alpha-SMA) in the tubulointerstitium was observed (TGF-beta1, glomerular 0.14 +/- 0.10 SD; tubulointerstial 0.34 +/- 0.20; P = 0.000) (alpha-SMA, glomerular 0.08 +/- 0.07; tubulointerstitial 0.35 +/- 0.19; P = 0.000) (Coll IV, glomerular 0.12 +/- 0.11; tubulointerstitial 0.22 +/- 0.10; P = 0.03). This fibrogenic cascade seems to be triggered by RAS as indicated by statistically significant correlations between the expression of their respective genes. A direct relationship between the putative Ang II activity and the expression of AT receptor genes was found in the tubulointerstitium, whereas in the glomeruli this relationship was negative. In the interstitium, statistically significant positive relationships emerged between interstitial infiltrates and the gene expression of Agtg, AT1 receptor, Coll IV, and TGF-beta1. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that a tight regulation of the intrarenal RAS exists in IgAN and that it follows the general rules disclosed in animal models. Moreover, the RAS seems to be activated early in the diseased kidney and it appears that such activation drives inflammation and a parallel stimulation of the TGF-beta fibrogenic loop, particularly at the tubulointerstitial level.