Measles - United States, January 1, 2020-March 28, 2024.

Measles is a highly infectious febrile rash illness and was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000. However, measles importations continue to occur, and U.S. measles elimination status was threatened in 2019 as the result of two prolonged outbreaks among undervaccinated communities in New York and New York City. To assess U.S. measles elimination status after the 2019 outbreaks and to provide context to understand more recent increases in measles cases, CDC analyzed epidemiologic and laboratory surveillance data and the performance of the U.S. measles surveillance system after these outbreaks. During January 1, 2020-March 28, 2024, CDC was notified of 338 confirmed measles cases; 97 (29%) of these cases occurred during the first quarter of 2024, representing a more than seventeenfold increase over the mean number of cases reported during the first quarter of 2020-2023. Among the 338 reported cases, the median patient age was 3 years (range = 0-64 years); 309 (91%) patients were unvaccinated or had unknown vaccination status, and 336 case investigations included information on ≥80% of critical surveillance indicators. During 2020-2023, the longest transmission chain lasted 63 days. As of the end of 2023, because of the absence of sustained measles virus transmission for 12 consecutive months in the presence of a well-performing surveillance system, U.S. measles elimination status was maintained. Risk for widespread U.S. measles transmission remains low because of high population immunity. However, because of the increase in cases during the first quarter of 2024, additional activities are needed to increase U.S. routine measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination coverage, especially among close-knit and undervaccinated communities. These activities include encouraging vaccination before international travel and rapidly investigating suspected measles cases.

Real-Time Use of a Dynamic Model To Measure the Impact of Public Health Interventions on Measles Outbreak Size and Duration - Chicago, Illinois, 2024.

Measles is a highly infectious, vaccine-preventable disease that can cause severe illness, hospitalization, and death. A measles outbreak associated with a migrant shelter in Chicago occurred during February-April 2024, in which a total of 57 confirmed cases were identified, including 52 among shelter residents, three among staff members, and two among community members with a known link to the shelter. CDC simulated a measles outbreak among shelter residents using a dynamic disease model, updated in real time as additional cases were identified, to produce outbreak forecasts and assess the impact of public health interventions. As of April 8, the model forecasted a median final outbreak size of 58 cases (IQR = 56-60 cases); model fit and prediction range improved as more case data became available. Counterfactual analysis of different intervention scenarios demonstrated the importance of early deployment of public health interventions in Chicago, with a 69% chance of an outbreak of 100 or more cases had there been no mass vaccination or active case-finding compared with only a 1% chance when those interventions were deployed. This analysis highlights the value of using real-time, dynamic models to aid public health response, set expectations about outbreak size and duration, and quantify the impact of interventions. The model shows that prompt mass vaccination and active case-finding likely substantially reduced the chance of a large (100 or more cases) outbreak in Chicago.

Characteristics of reported mumps cases in the United States: 2018-2023.

BACKGROUND: This paper highlights recent clinical complications of mumps reported in the United States and summarizes appropriate confirmatory testing for mumps, encouraging vigilance for mumps disease, an endemic vaccine-preventable illness. METHODS: Surveillance data from jurisdictions reporting confirmed and probable cases of mumps in the United States were descriptively analyzed to assess epidemiologic trends from January 1, 2018 - December 31, 2023. Data were reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System and the Epidemiology and Laboratory Capacity Project O. Cases were classified according to the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists 2011 mumps case definition. RESULTS: From 2018-2023, United States health departments reported 8,006 confirmed and probable mumps cases to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System, of which 85.4% occurred during January 1, 2018-April 4, 2020 and 14.6% during April 5, 2020-December 31, 2023. The incidence of mumps was highest among those aged 18-24 years during 2018-2020 (maximum of 4.54 cases per 100,000 persons in 2019), and highest among those aged 1-4 years during 2021-2023 (maximum 0.67 per 100,000 persons in 2023). Incidence among all age groups during 2021-2023 remained below levels during 2018-2020. Fewer than 12% of mumps cases were confirmed during 2021-2023, compared to >50% during 2018-2019. CONCLUSIONS: Although incidence has declined since the COVID-19 pandemic, these surveillance data highlight that mumps remains endemic in the United States. Therefore, maintaining high MMR vaccination coverage is essential to prevent future vaccine-preventable outbreaks and minimize severe complications from infection.

Nowcasting and forecasting the 2022 U.S. mpox outbreak: Support for public health decision making and lessons learned.

In June of 2022, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Mpox Response wanted timely answers to important epidemiological questions which can now be answered more effectively through infectious disease modeling. Infectious disease models have shown to be valuable tools for decision making during outbreaks; however, model complexity often makes communicating the results and limitations of models to decision makers difficult. We performed nowcasting and forecasting for the 2022 mpox outbreak in the United States using the R package EpiNow2. We generated nowcasts/forecasts at the national level, by Census region, and for jurisdictions reporting the greatest number of mpox cases. Modeling results were shared for situational awareness within the CDC Mpox Response and publicly on the CDC website. We retrospectively evaluated forecast predictions at four key phases (early, exponential growth, peak, and decline) during the outbreak using three metrics, the weighted interval score, mean absolute error, and prediction interval coverage. We compared the performance of EpiNow2 with a naïve Bayesian generalized linear model (GLM). The EpiNow2 model had less probabilistic error than the GLM during every outbreak phase except for the early phase. We share our experiences with an existing tool for nowcasting/forecasting and highlight areas of improvement for the development of future tools. We also reflect on lessons learned regarding data quality issues and adapting modeling results for different audiences.

Appropriateness of Immunoglobulin M Testing for Measles, Mumps, and Rubella.

INTRODUCTION: Testing for immunity to measles, mumps, and rubella should include only immunoglobulin G (IgG); immunoglobulin M (IgM) testing is appropriate only if acute illness is suspected. The appropriateness of measles, mumps, and rubella IgM testing was evaluated in a national administrative dataset. METHODS: Laboratory testing for measles, mumps, and rubella during 2019-2022 was analyzed in 2024 using HealthVerity administrative claims and laboratory data. IgG, IgM, and reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing are described by year, demographics, and region. IgM testing was examined for appropriateness, defined as an IgM test combined with diagnostic codes indicative of acute illness. RESULTS: During 2019-2022, IgM testing represented a small proportion of serologic testing (measles: 3.3%, mumps: 2.4%, rubella: 2.1%) but appeared to be appropriately performed in only 15.4% of cases for measles, 32.8% of cases for mumps, and 10.2% of cases for rubella. IgM testing was more commonly performed for female patients, with the largest discrepancy seen for rubella (90.5% female vs 9.5% male). IgM for measles and mumps was more often performed appropriately for persons aged 0-19 years (37.6% and 60.1%) compared with persons aged 20-49 years (11.8% and 22.0%) and 50+ years (16.5% and 33.8%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of IgM testing for measles, mumps, and rubella during this period appeared inappropriate. Clinicians and health systems could ensure that IgG testing alone is performed when evaluating for immunity through modifications to electronic medical records and commercial laboratories could ensure that providers are able to test for IgG alone when evaluating immunity.

Sociodemographic Trends and Correlation between Parental Hesitancy towards Pediatric COVID-19 Vaccines and Routine Childhood Immunizations in the United States: 2021-2022 National Immunization Survey-Child COVID Module.

Multiple factors may influence parental vaccine hesitancy towards pediatric COVID-19 vaccines and routine childhood immunizations (RCIs). Using the United States National Immunization Survey-Child COVID Module data collected from parents/guardians of children aged 5-11 years, this cross-sectional study (1) identified the trends and prevalence estimates of parental hesitancy towards pediatric COVID-19 vaccines and RCIs, (2) examined the relationship between hesitancy towards pediatric COVID-19 vaccines and RCIs, and (3) assessed trends in parental hesitancy towards RCIs by sociodemographic characteristics and behavioral and social drivers of COVID-19 vaccination. From November 2021 to July 2022, 54,329 parents or guardians were interviewed. During this 9-month period, the proportion of parents hesitant about pediatric COVID-19 vaccines increased by 15.8 percentage points (24.8% to 40.6%). Additionally, the proportion of parents who reported RCIs hesitancy increased by 4.7 percentage points from November 2021 to May 2022 but returned to baseline by July 2022. Over nine months, parents' concerns about pediatric COVID-19 infections declined; however, parents were increasingly worried about pediatric COVID-19 vaccine safety and overall importance. Furthermore, pediatric COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was more prevalent among parents of children who were White (43.2%) versus Black (29.3%) or Hispanic (26.9%) and those residing in rural (51.3%) compared to urban (28.9%) areas. In contrast, RCIs hesitancy was higher among parents of children who were Black (32.0%) versus Hispanic (24.5%) or White (23.6%). Pediatric COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was 2-6 times as prevalent among parents who were RCIs hesitant compared to those who were RCIs non-hesitant. This positive correlation between parental hesitancy towards pediatric COVID-19 vaccines and RCIs was observed for all demographic and psychosocial factors for unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios. Parent-provider interactions should increase vaccine confidence, shape social norms, and facilitate behavior change to promote pediatric vaccination rates.

Identifying a Level of Neutralizing Antibody That Correlates With Protection From Clinical Mumps Disease During a 2017 Mumps Outbreak Among Military Service Members.

Background: In 2017, a mumps outbreak occurred in a US military barracks. Serum collected at service entry was used to compare pre-exposure with presumptive vaccine-induced antibody levels from persons who developed mumps (cases) and potentially exposed persons who did not develop mumps (non-cases). Sufficient information to determine levels of exposure during the outbreak was not available. Methods: Pre-outbreak serum samples from the Department of Defense Serum Repository were available from 254 potentially exposed service members. Twelve developed clinical symptoms and had post-outbreak serum collected. All sera were tested with a mumps-specific enzyme immunoassay for immunoglobulin M, immunoglobulin G (IgG), and IgG avidity. The neutralizing antibodies to vaccine strain (Jeryl Lynn [JL], genotype A) and wildtype virus (genotype G) was assessed by a plaque reduction neutralization test. A Fisher exact test and receiver operator characteristic curve were used to analyze the antibody response for non-cases and mumps cases. Results: Eight mumps cases were laboratory confirmed. Pre-outbreak neutralizing antibody titers to JL and genotype G mumps virus and pre-outbreak IgG index values were proportionately lower for most cases as compared with exposed non-cases. When compared with potentially exposed non-cases, cases with clinical symptoms had greater odds of having a pre-outbreak JL titer <41 and a genotype G titer <16. Conclusions: We identified potential correlates of protection for mumps neutralizing antibody titers against JL and genotype G mumps viruses.