Rapid SARS-CoV-2 surveillance using clinical, pooled, or wastewater sequence as a sensor for population change.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the critical role of genomic surveillance for guiding policy and control. Timeliness is key, but sequence alignment and phylogeny slow most surveillance techniques. Millions of SARS-CoV-2 genomes have been assembled. Phylogenetic methods are ill equipped to handle this sheer scale. We introduce a pangenomic measure that examines the information diversity of a k-mer library drawn from a country's complete set of clinical, pooled, or wastewater sequence. Quantifying diversity is central to ecology. Hill numbers, or the effective number of species in a sample, provide a simple metric for comparing species diversity across environments. The more diverse the sample, the higher the Hill number. We adopt this ecological approach and consider each k-mer an individual and each genome a transect in the pangenome of the species. Structured in this way, Hill numbers summarize the temporal trajectory of pandemic variants, collapsing each day's assemblies into genome equivalents. For pooled or wastewater sequence, we instead compare days using survey sequence divorced from individual infections. Across data from the UK, USA, and South Africa, we trace the ascendance of new variants of concern as they emerge in local populations well before these variants are named and added to phylogenetic databases. Using data from San Diego wastewater, we monitor these same population changes from raw, unassembled sequence. This history of emerging variants senses all available data as it is sequenced, intimating variant sweeps to dominance or declines to extinction at the leading edge of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A protective role for type I interferon signaling following infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis carrying the rifampicin drug resistance-conferring RpoB mutation H445Y.

Interleukin-1 (IL-1) signaling is essential for controlling virulent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection since antagonism of this pathway leads to exacerbated pathology and increased susceptibility. In contrast, the triggering of type I interferon (IFN) signaling is associated with the progression of tuberculosis (TB) disease and linked with negative regulation of IL-1 signaling. However, mice lacking IL-1 signaling can control Mtb infection if infected with an Mtb strain carrying the rifampin-resistance conferring mutation H445Y in its RNA polymerase ß subunit (rpoB-H445Y Mtb). The mechanisms that govern protection in the absence of IL-1 signaling during rpoB-H445Y Mtb infection are unknown. In this study, we show that in the absence of IL-1 signaling, type I IFN signaling controls rpoB-H445Y Mtb replication, lung pathology, and excessive myeloid cell infiltration. Additionally, type I IFN is produced predominantly by monocytes and recruited macrophages and acts on LysM-expressing cells to drive protection through nitric oxide (NO) production to restrict intracellular rpoB-H445Y Mtb. These findings reveal an unexpected protective role for type I IFN signaling in compensating for deficiencies in IL-1 pathways during rpoB-H445Y Mtb infection.

Genotype-Phenotype Characterization of Serial Mycobacterium tuberculosis Isolates in Bedaquiline-Resistant Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Emerging resistance to bedaquiline (BDQ) threatens to undermine advances in the treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DRTB). Characterizing serial Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) isolates collected during BDQ-based treatment can provide insights into the etiologies of BDQ resistance in this important group of DRTB patients. METHODS: We measured mycobacteria growth indicator tube (MGIT)-based BDQ minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of Mtb isolates collected from 195 individuals with no prior BDQ exposure who were receiving BDQ-based treatment for DRTB. We conducted whole-genome sequencing on serial Mtb isolates from all participants who had any isolate with a BDQ MIC >1 collected before or after starting treatment (95 total Mtb isolates from 24 participants). RESULTS: Sixteen of 24 participants had BDQ-resistant TB (MGIT MIC ≥4 µg/mL) and 8 had BDQ-intermediate infections (MGIT MIC = 2 µg/mL). Participants with pre-existing resistance outnumbered those with resistance acquired during treatment, and 8 of 24 participants had polyclonal infections. BDQ resistance was observed across multiple Mtb strain types and involved a diverse catalog of mmpR5 (Rv0678) mutations, but no mutations in atpE or pepQ. Nine pairs of participants shared genetically similar isolates separated by <5 single nucleotide polymorphisms, concerning for potential transmitted BDQ resistance. CONCLUSIONS: BDQ-resistant TB can arise via multiple, overlapping processes, including transmission of strains with pre-existing resistance. Capturing the within-host diversity of these infections could potentially improve clinical diagnosis, population-level surveillance, and molecular diagnostic test development.

Emergence and evolution of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis in eastern China: A six-year prospective study.

Understanding the emergence and evolution of drug resistance can inform public health intervention to combat tuberculosis (TB). In this prospective molecular epidemiological surveillance study from 2015 to 2021 in eastern China, we prospectively collected whole-genome sequencing and epidemiological data on TB patients. We dissect the ordering of drug resistance mutation acquisition for nine commonly used anti-TB drugs, and we found that the katG S315T mutation first appeared around 1959, followed by rpoB S450L (1969), rpsL L43A (1972), embB M306V (1978), rrs 1401 (1981), fabG1 (1982), pncA (1985) and folC (1988) mutations. GyrA gene mutations appeared after the year of 2000. We observed that the first expansion of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) resistance population among eastern China appeared after the introduction of isoniazid, streptomycin and para-amino salicylic acid, and the second expansion after the ethambutol, rifampicin, pyrazinamide, ethionamide and aminoglycosides. We speculate these two expansions are linked with population shift historically. By geospatial analysis, we found drug-resistant isolates migrated within eastern China. With epidemiological data of clonal strains, we observed some strains can evolve continuously in individuals and transmit readily in a population. In conclusion, this study mirrored the emergence and evolution of drug-resistant M.tb in eastern China were linked to the sequence and timing of introduction of anti-TB drugs, and multiple factors may contribute to the resistant population enlarged. To resolve the epidemic of drug-resistant TB, it requires applying anti-TB drugs carefully and/or identifying resistant patients timely to prevent them from developing high-level resistance and transmitting to others.

Recurrent Subclinical Tuberculosis Among Antiretroviral Therapy-Accessing Participants: Incidence, Clinical Course, and Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Undiagnosed asymptomatic subclinical tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant threat to global TB control, accounting for a substantial proportion of cases among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS (PLWHA). We determined incidence, progression, and outcomes of subclinical TB in antiretroviral therapy (ART)-accessing PLWHA with known previous TB in South Africa. METHODS: A total of 402 adult PLWHA previously treated for TB were enrolled in the prospective Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa TRuTH (TB Recurrence Upon TB and HIV treatment) Study. Participants were screened for TB with quarterly clinical and bacteriologic evaluation and biannual chest radiographs over 36 months. Those with suspected or confirmed TB were referred to the National TB Programme. Participants received HIV services, including ART. Incidence rate of TB was estimated using Poisson regression and descriptive statistical analyses summarized data. RESULTS: A total of 48 of 402 (11.9%) bacteriologically confirmed incident recurrent TB cases were identified, comprising 17 of 48 (35.4%) subclinical TB cases and 31 of 48 (64.5%) clinical TB cases. Age, sex, and body mass index were similar among subclinical, clinical, and no TB groups. Incidence rates (95% Confidence Interval [CI]) of recurrent TB overall, in clinical and subclinical TB groups were 2.3 (1.7-3.0), 1.5 (1.1-2.2), and 0.9 (0.5-1.4) per 100 person-years, respectively. In the subclinical TB group, 14 of 17 (82.4%) were diagnosed by TB culture only, 11 of 17 (64.7%) received TB treatment, and 6 of 17 (35.3%) resolved TB spontaneously. CONCLUSIONS: High incidence rates of recurrent subclinical TB in PLWHA highlight inadequacies of symptom-based TB screening in high TB-HIV burden settings.

Whole Genome Sequencing Assessing Impact of Diabetes Mellitus on Tuberculosis Mutations and Type of Recurrence in India.

BACKGROUND: Evidence describing the impact of diabetes mellitus (DM) on the recurrence and mutation rate of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is limited. METHODS: This study was nested in 3 cohort studies of tuberculosis (TB) patients with and without DM in India. Paired Mtb isolates recovered at baseline and treatment failure/recurrence underwent whole genome sequencing. We compared acquisition of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), TB drug resistance mutations, and type of recurrence (endogenous reactivation [<8 SNPs] or exogenous reinfection [≥8 SNPs]) by DM status. RESULTS: Of 1633 enrolled in the 3 parent cohorts, 236 (14.5%) had microbiologically confirmed TB treatment failure/recurrence; 76 Mtb isolate pairs were available for sequencing (22 in TB-DM and 54 in TB-only). The SNP acquisition rate was overall was 0.43 (95% confidence interval [CI], .25-.64) per 1 person-year (PY); 0.77 (95% CI, .40-1.35) per 1 PY, and 0.44 (95% CI, .19-.86) per 1 PY at treatment failure and recurrence, respectively. Significant difference in SNP rates by DM status was seen at recurrence (0.21 [95% CI, .04-.61]) per 1 PY for TB-only vs 1.28 (95% CI, .41-2.98) per 1 PY for TB-DM; P = .02). No significant difference in SNP rates by DM status was observed at treatment failure. Acquired TB drug resistance was seen in 4 of 18 (22%) in TB-DM vs 4 of 45 (9%) in TB-only (P = .21). Thirteen (17%) participants had exogenous reinfection; the reinfection rate at recurrence was 25% (3/12) for TB-DM vs 17% (4/24) in TB-only (P = .66). CONCLUSIONS: Considerable intrahost Mtb mutation rates were present at recurrence among patients with DM in India. One-fourth of patients with DM had exogenous reinfection at recurrence.

Rifampin resistance mutations in the rpoB gene of Enterococcus faecalis impact host macrophage cytokine production.

Antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the genus Enterococcus are a major cause of nosocomial infections and are an emergent public health concern. Similar to a number of bacterial species, resistance to the antibiotic rifampicin (RifR) in enterococci is associated with mutations in the gene encoding the ß subunit of RNA polymerase (rpoB). In Mycobacterium tuberculosis, RifRrpoB mutations alter mycobacterial surface lipid expression and are associated with an altered IL-1 cytokine response in macrophages upon infection. However, it is not clear if RifR mutations modulate host cytokine responses by other bacteria. To address this question, we utilized Enterococcus faecalis (E. faecalis). Here, we treated human monocyte-derived macrophages with heat-inactivated wild type or RifRrpoB mutants of E. faecalis and found that RifR mutations reduced IL-1ß cytokine production. However, RifR mutations elicited other potent pro- and anti-inflammatory responses, indicating that they can impact other immune pathways beyond IL-1R1 signaling. Our findings suggest that immunomodulation by mutations in rpoB may be conserved across diverse bacterial species and that subversion of IL-1R1 pathway is shared by RifR bacteria.

Pre-detection history of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) infections pose a major threat to global public health. Similar to other AMR pathogens, both historical and ongoing drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) epidemics are characterized by transmission of a limited number of predominant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) strains. Understanding how these predominant strains achieve sustained transmission, particularly during the critical period before they are detected via clinical or public health surveillance, can inform strategies for prevention and containment. In this study, we employ whole-genome sequence (WGS) data from TB clinical isolates collected in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa to examine the pre-detection history of a successful strain of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) TB known as LAM4/KZN, first identified in a widely reported cluster of cases in 2005. We identify marked expansion of this strain concurrent with the onset of the generalized HIV epidemic 12 y prior to 2005, localize its geographic origin to a location in northeastern KwaZulu-Natal ∼400 km away from the site of the 2005 outbreak, and use protein structural modeling to propose a mechanism for how strain-specific rpoB mutations offset fitness costs associated with rifampin resistance in LAM4/KZN. Our findings highlight the importance of HIV coinfection, high preexisting rates of drug-resistant TB, human migration, and pathoadaptive evolution in the emergence and dispersal of this critical public health threat. We propose that integrating whole-genome sequencing into routine public health surveillance can enable the early detection and local containment of AMR pathogens before they achieve widespread dispersal.

Readmission Rates in Stroke Patients with and without Infections: Incidence and Risk Factors.

BACKGROUND: Stroke patients are at increased risk for acquiring infections in the hospital and risk of readmission. We aimed to examine whether an infection acquired during the initial stroke admission contributes to increased risk of readmission and infection during readmission. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study incorporating all adult ischemic stroke patients from three New York City hospitals from 2006 to 2016. A validated computer algorithm defined infections based on electronically-available laboratory culture data. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the crude and adjusted association of infections present on admission (IPOA) and healthcare-associated infections (HAI) with 60-day readmissions, and infection during readmission. RESULTS: Among the 10,436 stroke patients, 17% had infections during initial admission of which 52% were IPOA and 48% were HAI. The risk of readmission was significantly higher for those with HAIs (OR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.20-1.64) and IPOA (OR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.09-1.47). The presence of infection during the 60-day readmission was also independently predicted by HAI (OR = 3.27; 95% CI: 2.60-4.12) and IPOA (OR = 2.54; 95% CI: 2.01-3.22). Patients with a Gram-negative infection were not at higher odds for readmission compared to patients with a Gram-positive infection (OR 1.07, 95%CI 0.81-1.42). CONCLUSION: Among stroke patients, HAI and IPOA were predictors of readmission within 60 days and infection during readmission.

Spatiotemporal Clustering of Multidrug-Resistant and Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis Is Associated With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status and Drug-Susceptibility Patterns in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Using an open-access spatiotemporal analytics program, we mapped spatiotemporal heterogeneity loci in tuberculosis (TB) cases (clusters) and dynamic changes, and characterized the drug-resistant TB clustering risk using routine microbiological data from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The data may provide insight into transmission dynamics and support efficient deployment of public health resources.

Social Mixing and Clinical Features Linked With Transmission in a Network of Extensively Drug-resistant Tuberculosis Cases in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading infectious cause of death globally, and drug-resistant TB strains pose a serious threat to controlling the global TB epidemic. The clinical features, locations, and social factors driving transmission in settings with high incidences of drug-resistant TB are poorly understood. METHODS: We measured a network of genomic links using Mycobacterium tuberculosis whole-genome sequences. RESULTS: Patients with 2-3 months of cough or who spent time in urban locations were more likely to be linked in the network, while patients with sputum smear-positive disease were less likely to be linked than those with smear-negative disease. Associations persisted using different thresholds to define genomic links and irrespective of assumptions about the direction of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying factors that lead to many transmissions, including contact with urban areas, can suggest settings instrumental in transmission and indicate optimal locations and groups to target with interventions.

Beyond the SNP Threshold: Identifying Outbreak Clusters Using Inferred Transmissions.

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is increasingly used to aid the understanding of pathogen transmission. A first step in analyzing WGS data is usually to define "transmission clusters," sets of cases that are potentially linked by direct transmission. This is often done by including two cases in the same cluster if they are separated by fewer single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) than a specified threshold. However, there is little agreement as to what an appropriate threshold should be. We propose a probabilistic alternative, suggesting that the key inferential target for transmission clusters is the number of transmissions separating cases. We characterize this by combining the number of SNP differences and the length of time over which those differences have accumulated, using information about case timing, molecular clock, and transmission processes. Our framework has the advantage of allowing for variable mutation rates across the genome and can incorporate other epidemiological data. We use two tuberculosis studies to illustrate the impact of our approach: with British Columbia data by using spatial divisions; with Republic of Moldova data by incorporating antibiotic resistance. Simulation results indicate that our transmission-based method is better in identifying direct transmissions than a SNP threshold, with dissimilarity between clusterings of on average 0.27 bits compared with 0.37 bits for the SNP-threshold method and 0.84 bits for randomly permuted data. These results show that it is likely to outperform the SNP-threshold method where clock rates are variable and sample collection times are spread out. We implement the method in the R package transcluster.

Modeling Missing Cases and Transmission Links in Networks of Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Patterns of transmission of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) remain poorly understood, despite over half a million incident cases worldwide in 2017. Modeling TB transmission networks can provide insight into drivers of transmission, but incomplete sampling of TB cases can pose challenges for inference from individual epidemiologic and molecular data. We assessed the effect of missing cases on a transmission network inferred from Mycobacterium tuberculosis sequencing data on extensively drug-resistant TB cases in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, diagnosed in 2011-2014. We tested scenarios in which cases were missing at random, missing differentially by clinical characteristics, or missing differentially by transmission (i.e., cases with many links were under- or oversampled). Under the assumption that cases were missing randomly, the mean number of transmissions per case in the complete network needed to be larger than 20, far higher than expected, to reproduce the observed network. Instead, the most likely scenario involved undersampling of high-transmitting cases, and models provided evidence for super-spreading. To our knowledge, this is the first analysis to have assessed support for different mechanisms of missingness in a TB transmission study, but our results are subject to the distributional assumptions of the network models we used. Transmission studies should consider the potential biases introduced by incomplete sampling and identify host, pathogen, or environmental factors driving super-spreading.

Transmission of Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Drug-resistant tuberculosis threatens recent gains in the treatment of tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection worldwide. A widespread epidemic of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis is occurring in South Africa, where cases have increased substantially since 2002. The factors driving this rapid increase have not been fully elucidated, but such knowledge is needed to guide public health interventions. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study involving 404 participants in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with a diagnosis of XDR tuberculosis between 2011 and 2014. Interviews and medical-record reviews were used to elicit information on the participants' history of tuberculosis and HIV infection, hospitalizations, and social networks. Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates underwent insertion sequence (IS)6110 restriction-fragment-length polymorphism analysis, targeted gene sequencing, and whole-genome sequencing. We used clinical and genotypic case definitions to calculate the proportion of cases of XDR tuberculosis that were due to inadequate treatment of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (i.e., acquired resistance) versus those that were due to transmission (i.e., transmitted resistance). We used social-network analysis to identify community and hospital locations of transmission. RESULTS: Of the 404 participants, 311 (77%) had HIV infection; the median CD4+ count was 340 cells per cubic millimeter (interquartile range, 117 to 431). A total of 280 participants (69%) had never received treatment for MDR tuberculosis. Genotypic analysis in 386 participants revealed that 323 (84%) belonged to 1 of 31 clusters. Clusters ranged from 2 to 14 participants, except for 1 large cluster of 212 participants (55%) with a LAM4/KZN strain. Person-to-person or hospital-based epidemiologic links were identified in 123 of 404 participants (30%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of cases of XDR tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, an area with a high tuberculosis burden, were probably due to transmission rather than to inadequate treatment of MDR tuberculosis. These data suggest that control of the epidemic of drug-resistant tuberculosis requires an increased focus on interrupting transmission. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others.).

TB transmission is associated with prolonged stay in a low socio-economic, high burdened TB and HIV community in Cape Town, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: While several studies have assessed the associations between biological factors and tuberculosis (TB) transmission, our understanding of the associations between TB transmission and social and economic factors remains incomplete. We aimed to explore associations between community TB transmission and socio-economic factors within a high TB-HIV burdened setting. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional molecular epidemiology study among adult patients attending a routine TB clinic. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from TB registers and clinical folders; social and economic data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires; Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates were genotyped and classified as clustered/non-clustered using IS6110-based Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism. Composite "social" and "economic" scores were generated from social and economic data. Data were analyzed using StataCorp version 15.0 software. Stratified, bivariable analyses were performed using chi-squared. Wilcoxon signed rank tests; univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were developed to explore associations in the social, economic, traditional and composite TB risk factors with TB transmission. RESULTS: Of the 505 patient Mtb  strains, 348(69%) cases were classified as clustered and 157(31%) were non-clustered. Clustered cases were more likely to have lived longer in the study community, (odds ratio [OR] = 1.05, 95% Confidence interval [C.I]:1.02-1.09, p = 0.006); in the same house (OR = 1.04, C.I: 0.99-1.08, p = 0.06); and had increased household crowding conditions (i.e fewer rooms used for sleeping, OR = 0.45, C.I:0.21-0.95, p = 0.04). Although a higher proportion of clustered cases had a low economic score, no statistically significant association was found between clustering and either the economic score (p = 0.13) or social score (p = 0.26). CONCLUSIONS: We report a novel association between Mtb transmission and prolonged stay within a high burdened community. Transmission was also associated with fewer rooms for sleeping in a household. Increased social interaction and prolonged residence in a high burdened community are important factors linked to Mtb transmission, possibly due to increased probability of higher effective contact rates. The possible importance of degrees of poverty within low socio-economic setting warrants further study.

Precision Surveillance for Viral Respiratory Pathogens: Virome Capture Sequencing for the Detection and Genomic Characterization of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Precision public health is a novel set of methods to target disease prevention and mitigation interventions to high-risk subpopulations. We applied a precision public health strategy to syndromic surveillance for severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Uganda by combining spatiotemporal analytics with genomic sequencing to detect and characterize viral respiratory pathogens with epidemic potential. METHODS: Using a national surveillance network we identified patients with unexplained, influenza-negative SARI from 2010 to 2015. Spatiotemporal analyses were performed retrospectively to identify clusters of unexplained SARI. Within clusters, respiratory viruses were detected and characterized in naso- and oropharyngeal swab samples using a novel oligonucleotide probe capture (VirCapSeq-VERT) and high-throughput sequencing platform. Linkage to conventional epidemiologic strategies further characterized transmission dynamics of identified pathogens. RESULTS: Among 2901 unexplained SARI cases, 9 clusters were detected, accounting for 301 (10.4%) cases. Clusters were more likely to occur in urban areas and during biannual rainy seasons. Within detected clusters, we identified an unrecognized outbreak of measles-associated SARI; sequence analysis implicated cocirculation of endemic genotype B3 and genotype D4 likely imported from England. We also detected a likely nosocomial SARI cluster associated with a novel picobirnavirus most closely related to swine and dromedary viruses. CONCLUSIONS: Using a precision approach to public health surveillance, we detected and characterized the genomics of vaccine-preventable and zoonotic respiratory viruses associated with clusters of severe respiratory infections in Uganda. Future studies are needed to assess the feasibility, scalability, and impact of applying similar approaches during real-time public health surveillance in low-income settings.

Evaluating strategies for control of tuberculosis in prisons and prevention of spillover into communities: An observational and modeling study from Brazil.

BACKGROUND: It has been hypothesized that prisons serve as amplifiers of general tuberculosis (TB) epidemics, but there is a paucity of data on this phenomenon and the potential population-level effects of prison-focused interventions. This study (1) quantifies the TB risk for prisoners as they traverse incarceration and release, (2) mathematically models the impact of prison-based interventions on TB burden in the general population, and (3) generalizes this model to a wide range of epidemiological contexts. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We obtained individual-level incarceration data for all inmates (n = 42,925) and all reported TB cases (n = 5,643) in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul from 2007 through 2013. We matched individuals between prisoner and TB databases and estimated the incidence of TB from the time of incarceration and the time of prison release using Cox proportional hazards models. We identified 130 new TB cases diagnosed during incarceration and 170 among individuals released from prison. During imprisonment, TB rates increased from 111 cases per 100,000 person-years at entry to a maximum of 1,303 per 100,000 person-years at 5.2 years. At release, TB incidence was 229 per 100,000 person-years, which declined to 42 per 100,000 person-years (the average TB incidence in Brazil) after 7 years. We used these data to populate a compartmental model of TB transmission and incarceration to evaluate the effects of various prison-based interventions on the incidence of TB among prisoners and the general population. Annual mass TB screening within Brazilian prisons would reduce TB incidence in prisons by 47.4% (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 44.4%-52.5%) and in the general population by 19.4% (95% BCI 17.9%-24.2%). A generalized model demonstrates that prison-based interventions would have maximum effectiveness in reducing community incidence in populations with a high concentration of TB in prisons and greater degrees of mixing between ex-prisoners and community members. Study limitations include our focus on a single Brazilian state and our retrospective use of administrative databases. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the prison environment, more so than the prison population itself, drives TB incidence, and targeted interventions within prisons could have a substantial effect on the broader TB epidemic.

Correction: Evaluating strategies for control of tuberculosis in prisons and prevention of spillover into communities: An observational and modeling study from Brazil.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002737.].

Early Detection of Emergent Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis by Flow Cytometry-Based Phenotyping and Whole-Genome Sequencing.

A critical gap in tuberculosis (TB) treatment is detection of emergent drug resistance. We hypothesized that advanced phenotyping with whole-genome sequencing (WGS) will detect low-frequency Mycobacterium tuberculosis drug resistance. We assessed a reporter mycobacteriophage (Φ2GFP10) in vitro to detect drug-resistant subpopulations and predict M. tuberculosis bactericidal activity in this pilot study. Subsequently, we prospectively studied 20 TB patients with serial Φ2GFP10, Xpert MTB/RIF, and M. tuberculosis culture through end of treatment. WGS was performed, and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were examined to detect mixed infection in selected M. tuberculosis isolates. Resistant M. tuberculosis isolates were detected at 1:100,000, and changes in cytometry-gated events were predictive of in vitroM. tuberculosis bactericidal activity using the Φ2GFP10 assay. Emergent drug resistance was detected in one patient by Φ2GFP10 at 3 weeks but not by conventional testing (M. tuberculosis culture and GeneXpert). WGS revealed a phylogeographically distinct extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) genome, identical to an XDR-TB isolate from the patient's spouse. Variant lineage-specific SNPs were present early, suggesting mixed infection as the etiology of emergent resistance with temporal trends providing evidence for selection during treatment. Φ2GFP10 can detect low-frequency drug-resistant M. tuberculosis and with WGS characterize emergent M. tuberculosis resistance. In areas of high TB transmission and drug resistance, rapid screening for heteroresistance should be considered.