Lower Insulin Sensitivity Through 36 Months of Life With in Utero HIV and Antiretroviral Exposure in Botswana: Results From the Tshilo Dikotla Study.

BACKGROUND: There are little data on changes in insulin sensitivity during the first few years of life following in utero human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and antiretroviral (ARV) exposure. METHODS: The Tshilo Dikotla study enrolled pregnant persons with HIV (PWH) (receiving tenofovir/emtricitabine or lamivudine plus dolutegravir or efavirenz) and pregnant individuals without HIV, as well as their liveborn children. Newborns were randomized to receive either zidovudine (AZT) or nevirapine (NVP) postnatal prophylaxis. Homeostasis Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) was assessed at birth and 1, 18, 24, and 36 months of life. We fit linear mixed-effects models to evaluate the association between in utero HIV/ARV exposure and average HOMA-IR from birth through 36 months of life, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: A total of 419 children were included (287 with in utero HIV/ARV exposure and uninfected [CHEU] and 132 without in utero HIV/ARV exposure [CHUU]). CHEU were born to older women (29.6 vs 25.3 years of age) with higher gravidity (3 vs 1). HOMA-IR was persistently higher in CHEU versus CHUU in adjusted analyses (mean difference of 0.07 in log10 HOMA-IR, P  = .02) from birth through 36 months of life. Among CHEU, no differences in HOMA-IR were observed from birth through 36 months by in utero ARV exposure status or between AZT and NVP infant prophylaxis arms. CONCLUSIONS: In utero HIV/ARV exposure was associated with lower insulin sensitivity throughout the first 36 months of life, indicating persistent early life metabolic disturbances which may raise concern for poorer metabolic health later in life.

Emulating Target Trials to Avoid Immortal Time Bias - An Application to Antibiotic Initiation and Preterm Delivery.

BACKGROUND: Randomized trials in pregnancy are extremely challenging, and observational studies are often the only option to evaluate medication safety during pregnancy. However, such studies are often susceptible to immortal time bias if treatment initiation occurs after time zero of follow-up. We describe how emulating a sequence of target trials avoids immortal time bias and apply the approach to estimate the safety of antibiotic initiation between 24 and 37 weeks gestation on preterm delivery. METHODS: The Tsepamo Study captured birth outcomes at hospitals throughout Botswana from 2014 to 2021. We emulated 13 sequential target trials of antibiotic initiation versus no initiation among individuals presenting to care <24 weeks, one for each week from 24 to 37 weeks. For each trial, eligible individuals had not previously initiated antibiotics. We also conducted an analysis susceptible to immortal time bias by defining time zero as 24 weeks and exposure as antibiotic initiation between 24 and 37 weeks. We calculated adjusted risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for preterm delivery. RESULTS: Of 111,403 eligible individuals, 17,009 (15.3%) initiated antibiotics between 24 and 37 weeks. In the sequence of target trials, RRs (95% CIs) ranged from 1.04 (0.90, 1.19) to 1.24 (1.11, 1.39) (pooled RR: 1.11 [1.06, 1.15]). In the analysis susceptible to immortal time bias, the RR was 0.90 (0.86, 0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Defining exposure as antibiotic initiation at any time during follow-up after time zero resulted in substantial immortal time bias, making antibiotics appear protective against preterm delivery. Conducting a sequence of target trials can avoid immortal time bias in pregnancy studies.

Lower Insulin Sensitivity in Newborns With In Utero HIV and Antiretroviral Exposure Who Are Uninfected in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: Few data exist on early-life metabolic perturbations in newborns with perinatal HIV and antiretroviral (ARV) exposure but uninfected (HEU) compared to those perinatally HIV unexposed and uninfected (HUU). METHODS: We enrolled pregnant persons with HIV (PWH) receiving tenofovir (TDF)/emtricitabine or lamivudine (XTC) plus dolutegravir (DTG) or efavirenz (EFV), and pregnant individuals without HIV, as well as their liveborn infants. Newborns were randomized to receive either zidovudine (AZT) or nevirapine (NVP) postnatal prophylaxis. Preprandial homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) was assessed at birth and 1 month. Linear mixed models were fit to assess the association between in utero HIV/ARV exposure and average HOMA-IR from birth to 1 month, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: Of 450 newborns, 306 were HEU. HOMA-IR was higher in newborns HEU versus HUU after adjusting for confounders (mean difference of 0.068 in log HOMA-IR, P = .037). Among newborns HEU, HOMA-IR was not significantly different between TDF/XTC/DTG versus TDF/XTC/EFV in utero ARV exposure and between AZT versus NVP newborn postnatal prophylaxis arms. CONCLUSIONS: Newborns HEU versus HUU had lower insulin sensitivity at birth and at 1 month of life, raising potential concern for obesity and other metabolic perturbations later in life for newborns HEU. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03088410.

Neural-Tube Defects and Antiretroviral Treatment Regimens in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: A preliminary safety signal for neural-tube defects was previously reported in association with dolutegravir exposure from the time of conception, which has affected choices of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women of reproductive potential. The signal can now be evaluated with data from follow-up of additional pregnancies. METHODS: We conducted birth-outcomes surveillance at hospitals throughout Botswana, expanding from 8 to 18 sites in 2018. Trained midwives performed surface examinations of all live-born and stillborn infants. Research assistants photographed abnormalities after maternal consent was obtained. The prevalence of neural-tube defects and major external structural defects according to maternal HIV infection and ART exposure status was determined. In the primary analyses, we used the Newcombe method to evaluate differences in prevalence with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: From August 2014 through March 2019, surveillance captured 119,477 deliveries; 119,033 (99.6%) had an infant surface examination that could be evaluated, and 98 neural-tube defects were identified (0.08% of deliveries). Among 1683 deliveries in which the mother was taking dolutegravir at conception, 5 neural-tube defects were found (0.30% of deliveries); the defects included two instances of myelomeningocele, one of anencephaly, one of encephalocele, and one of iniencephaly. In comparison, 15 neural-tube defects were found among 14,792 deliveries (0.10%) in which the mother was taking any non-dolutegravir ART at conception, 3 among 7959 (0.04%) in which the mother was taking efavirenz at conception, 1 among 3840 (0.03%) in which the mother started dolutegravir treatment during pregnancy, and 70 among 89,372 (0.08%) in HIV-uninfected mothers. The prevalence of neural-tube defects was higher in association with dolutegravir treatment at conception than with non-dolutegravir ART at conception (difference, 0.20 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.01 to 0.59) or with other types of ART exposure. Major external structural defects were found in 0.95% of deliveries among women exposed to dolutegravir at conception and 0.68% of those among women exposed to non-dolutegravir ART at conception (difference, 0.27 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.13 to 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of neural-tube defects was slightly higher in association with dolutegravir exposure at conception than with other types of ART exposure at conception (3 per 1000 deliveries vs. 1 per 1000 deliveries). (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.).

Universal Testing, Expanded Treatment, and Incidence of HIV Infection in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: The feasibility of reducing the population-level incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection by increasing community coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and male circumcision is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a pair-matched, community-randomized trial in 30 rural or periurban communities in Botswana from 2013 to 2018. Participants in 15 villages in the intervention group received HIV testing and counseling, linkage to care, ART (started at a higher CD4 count than in standard care), and increased access to male circumcision services. The standard-care group also consisted of 15 villages. Universal ART became available in both groups in mid-2016. We enrolled a random sample of participants from approximately 20% of households in each community and measured the incidence of HIV infection through testing performed approximately once per year. The prespecified primary analysis was a permutation test of HIV incidence ratios. Pair-stratified Cox models were used to calculate 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Of 12,610 enrollees (81% of eligible household members), 29% were HIV-positive. Of the 8974 HIV-negative persons (4487 per group), 95% were retested for HIV infection over a median of 29 months. A total of 57 participants in the intervention group and 90 participants in the standard-care group acquired HIV infection (annualized HIV incidence, 0.59% and 0.92%, respectively). The unadjusted HIV incidence ratio in the intervention group as compared with the standard-care group was 0.69 (P = 0.09) by permutation test (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46 to 0.90 by pair-stratified Cox model). An end-of-trial survey in six communities (three per group) showed a significantly greater increase in the percentage of HIV-positive participants with an HIV-1 RNA level of 400 copies per milliliter or less in the intervention group (18 percentage points, from 70% to 88%) than in the standard-care group (8 percentage points, from 75% to 83%) (relative risk, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.16). The percentage of men who underwent circumcision increased by 10 percentage points in the intervention group and 2 percentage points in the standard-care group (relative risk, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Expanded HIV testing, linkage to care, and ART coverage were associated with increased population viral suppression. (Funded by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and others; Ya Tsie ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01965470.).

HIV-1 drug resistance mutations among individuals with low-level viraemia while taking combination ART in Botswana.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether a single instance of low-level viraemia (LLV) is associated with the presence of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and predicts subsequent virological failure (VF) in adults receiving ART in 30 communities participating in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project. METHODS: A total of 6078 HIV-1 C pol sequences were generated and analysed using the Stanford HIV drug resistance database. LLV was defined as plasma VL = 51-999 copies/mL and VF was defined as plasma VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL. RESULTS: Among 6078 people with HIV (PWH), 4443 (73%) were on ART for at least 6 months. Of the 332 persons on ART with VL > 50 copies/mL, 175 (4%) had VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL and 157 (4%) had LLV at baseline. The prevalence of any DRM was 57 (36%) and 78 (45%) in persons with LLV and VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL, respectively. Major DRMs were found in 31 (20%) with LLV and 53 (30%) with VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL (P = 0.04). Among the 135 PWH with at least one DRM, 17% had NRTI-, 35% NNRTI-, 6% PI- and 3% INSTI-associated mutations. Among the 3596 participants who were followed up, 1709 (48%) were on ART for ≥6 months at entry and had at least one subsequent VL measurement (median 29 months), 43 (3%) of whom had LLV. The OR of experiencing VF in persons with LLV at entry was 36-fold higher than in the virally suppressed group. CONCLUSIONS: A single LLV measurement while on ART strongly predicted the risk of future VF, suggesting the use of VL > 50 copies/mL as an indication for more intensive adherence support with more frequent VL monitoring.

Prolonged Cotrimoxazole Prophylaxis Has No Impact on Child Growth in the First Two Years of Life: Findings from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Botswana.

We investigated the impact of prolonged cotrimoxazole prophylaxis on growth in 2848 HIV-exposed uninfected children enrolled in the Mpepu study, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial in Botswana. No significant differences in mean weight-for-age, length-for-age, or weight-for-length z scores between placebo and cotrimoxazole arms were observed overall through 18 months.

Impact of prophylactic antimalarials in pregnant women living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus on birth outcomes in Botswana.

OBJECTIVES: Until late 2015, Botswana recommended preventive treatment for pregnant women in malarial regions with chloroquine and proguanil (CP). The guideline change provided an opportunity to evaluate CP and adverse birth outcomes. METHODS: The Tsepamo Study performed birth outcomes surveillance at large delivery centres throughout Botswana. We evaluated adverse birth outcomes from 2015 to 2017 at three hospitals where 93% of CP use was recorded. Outcomes included neonatal death (NND), small for gestational age (SGA), very SGA, stillbirth (SB), preterm delivery (PTD) and very PTD. Logistic regression analysis (unadjusted and adjusted) was conducted for each adverse birth outcome. RESULTS: During the study period, 5883 (26%) of 23,033 deliveries were exposed to CP, with the majority (65%) in the most malaria-endemic region. At this site, there was a trend or an association between CP use and reduction of three adverse birth outcomes: PTD (aOR 0.85, 95% CI 0.76-0.96), vPTD (aOR 0.83, 95% CI 0.68-1.01) and NND (aOR 0.65, 95% CI 0.42-1.00). However, at the least malaria-endemic site, the association was in the opposite direction for SB (aOR 1.54, 95% CI 1.08-2.22), SGA (aOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.06-1.44) and vSGA (aOR 1.42, 95% CI 1.14-1.77). The association between CP and reduced PTD was present among women without HIV (aOR 0.77, 95% CI 0.67-0.89) but not among women with HIV (aOR 1.09, 95% CI 0.78-1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Antimalarial prophylaxis was associated with improved birth outcomes in the most malaria-endemic region of Botswana, but not elsewhere. This finding supports current WHO guidance to use prophylaxis strategies among pregnant women in highly malaria-endemic regions. Further studies of the risks and benefits of specific antimalarial regimens in pregnancy are warranted, particularly in areas with lower incidence of malaria.

Epidemiological and viral characteristics of undiagnosed HIV infections in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 is endemic in Botswana. The country's primary challenge is identifying people living with HIV who are unaware of their status. We evaluated factors associated with undiagnosed HIV infection using HIV-1 phylogenetic, behavioural, and demographic data. METHODS: As part of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, 20% of households in 30 villages were tested for HIV and followed from 2013 to 2018. A total of 12,610 participants were enrolled, 3596 tested HIV-positive at enrolment, and 147 participants acquired HIV during the trial. Extensive socio-demographic and behavioural data were collected from participants and next-generation sequences were generated for HIV-positive cases. We compared three groups of participants: (1) those previously known to be HIV-positive at enrolment (n = 2995); (2) those newly diagnosed at enrolment (n = 601) and (3) those who tested HIV-negative at enrolment but tested HIV-positive during follow-up (n = 147). We searched for differences in demographic and behavioural factors between known and newly diagnosed group using logistic regression. We also compared the topology of each group in HIV-1 phylogenies and used a genetic diversity-based algorithm to classify infections as recent (< 1 year) or chronic (≥ 1 year). RESULTS: Being male (aOR = 2.23) and younger than 35 years old (aOR = 8.08) was associated with undiagnosed HIV infection (p < 0.001), as was inconsistent condom use (aOR = 1.76). Women were more likely to have undiagnosed infections if they were married, educated, and tested frequently. For men, being divorced increased their risk. The genetic diversity-based algorithm classified most incident infections as recent (75.0%), but almost none of known infections (2.0%). The estimated proportion of recent infections among new diagnoses was 37.0% (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that those with undiagnosed infections are likely to be young men and women who do not use condoms consistently. Among women, several factors were predictive: being married, educated, and testing frequently increased risk. Men at risk were more difficult to delineate. A sizeable proportion of undiagnosed infections were recent based on a genetic diversity-based classifier. In the era of "test and treat all", pre-exposure prophylaxis may be prioritized towards individuals who self-identify or who can be identified using these predictors in order to halt onward transmission in time.

High risk of adverse birth outcomes among adolescents living with HIV in Botswana compared to adult women living with HIV and adolescents without HIV.

BACKGROUND: Adolescent girls are three times more likely to be living with HIV than boys of the same age. Prior studies have found associations between adolescent pregnancies and increased maternal morbidity and infant mortality, but few studies have assessed the impact of HIV infection on maternal and infant outcomes in adolescents. METHODS: The Tsepamo Study abstracts maternal and infant data from obstetric records in government maternity wards in Botswana. We assessed maternal complications and adverse birth outcomes for all singleton pregnancies from August 2014 to August 2020 at eighteen Tsepamo sites among adolescents (defined as 10-19 years of age) and adults (defined as 20-35 years of age), by HIV status. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression using a complete case analysis method were used to evaluate differences in outcomes. RESULTS: This analysis included 142,258 singleton births, 21,133 (14.9%) to adolescents and 121,125 (85.1%) to adults. The proportion of adults living with HIV (N = 22,114, 22.5%) was higher than adolescents (N = 1593, 7.6%). The proportion of most adverse birth outcomes was higher in adolescents. Among adolescents, those with HIV had increased likelihoods of anemia (aOR = 1.89, 95%CI 1.66, 2.15) and cesarean sections (aOR = 1.49, 95%CI 1.3,1.72), and infants with preterm birth (aOR = 1.15, 95%CI 1.0, 1.32), very preterm birth (aOR = 1.35, 95%CI 1.0,1.8), small for gestational age (aOR = 1.37, 95%CI 1.20,1.58), and very small for gestational age (aOR = 1.46, 95%CI 1.20, 1.79). CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent pregnancy and adolescent HIV infection remain high in Botswana. Adolescents have higher risk of adverse maternal and infant birth outcomes than adults, with the worst outcomes among adolescents living with HIV. Linking HIV prevention and family planning strategies for this age group may help minimize the number of infants with poor birth outcomes among this already vulnerable population.

Modest reduction in adverse birth outcomes following the COVID-19 lockdown.

BACKGROUND: Widespread lockdowns imposed during the coronavirus disease 2019 crisis may impact birth outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the association between the COVID-19 lockdown and the risk of adverse birth outcomes in Botswana. STUDY DESIGN: In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 crisis, Botswana enforced a lockdown that restricted movement within the country. We used data from an ongoing nationwide birth outcomes surveillance study to evaluate adverse outcomes (stillbirth, preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age fetuses, and neonatal death) and severe adverse outcomes (stillbirth, very preterm birth, very-small-for-gestational-age fetuses, and neonatal death) recorded prelockdown (January 1, 2020-April 2, 2020), during lockdown (April 3, 2020-May 7, 2020), and postlockdown (May 8, 2020-July 20, 2020). Using difference-in-differences analyses, we compared the net change in each outcome from the prelockdown to lockdown periods in 2020 relative to the same 2 periods in 2017-2019 with the net change in each outcome from the prelockdown to postlockdown periods in 2020 relative to the same 2 periods in 2017-2019. RESULTS: In this study, 68,448 women delivered a singleton infant in 2017-2020 between January 1 and July 20 and were included in our analysis (mean [interquartile range] age of mothers, 26 [22-32] years). Across the included calendar years and periods, the risk of any adverse outcome ranged from 27.92% to 31.70%, and the risk of any severe adverse outcome ranged from 8.40% to 11.38%. The lockdown period was associated with a 0.81 percentage point reduction (95% confidence interval, -2.95% to 1.30%) in the risk of any adverse outcome (3% relative reduction) and a 0.02 percentage point reduction (95% confidence interval, -0.79% to 0.75%) in the risk of any severe adverse outcome (0% relative reduction). The postlockdown period was associated with a 1.72 percentage point reduction (95% confidence, -3.42% to 0.02%) in the risk of any adverse outcome (5% relative reduction) and a 1.62 percentage point reduction (95% confidence interval, -2.69% to -0.55%) in the risk of any severe adverse outcome (14% relative reduction). Reductions in adverse outcomes were largest among women with human immunodeficiency virus and among women delivering at urban delivery sites, driven primarily by reductions in preterm birth and small-for-gestational-age fetuses. CONCLUSION: Adverse birth outcomes decreased from the prelockdown to postlockdown periods in 2020, relative to the change during the same periods in 2017-2019. Our findings may provide insights into associations between mobility and birth outcomes in Botswana and other low- and middle-income countries.

Are morbidity and mortality estimates from randomized controlled trials externally valid? A comparison of outcomes among infants enrolled into an RCT or a cohort study in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: The external validity of the randomized controlled trial (RCT) refers to the extent to which the results of the RCT apply to the relevant, non-trial population and is impacted by its eligibility criteria, its organization, and its delivery of the intervention. Here, we compared the outcomes of mortality and hospitalization between an RCT and a cohort study that concurrently enrolled HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) newborns in Botswana. METHODS: The Mpepu Study (the RCT) was a clinical trial which determined that co-trimoxazole (CTX) provided no survival benefit for HEUs, allowing both arms of the RCT to be used. The Maikaelelo study (the cohort study) was a prospective observational study that enrolled HEU newborns with telephone follow-up and no in-person visits. Rates of death and hospitalization in the pooled population, were modeled using cox-proportional hazards models for time to death or time to first hospitalization, with study setting (RCT vs. cohort study) as an independent variable. The causal effect of study setting on morbidity and mortality was obtained through a treatment effects approach. RESULTS: In total, 4,010 infants were included; 1,306 were enrolled into the cohort study and 2,704 were enrolled into the RCT. No significant differences in mortality were observed between the two study settings (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 0.76, 2.13), but RCT participants had a lower risk of hospitalization (HR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.58, 0.89) that decreased with age. However, RCT participants had a higher risk of hospitalization within the first six months of life. The causal risk difference in hospitalizations attributable to the RCT setting was -0.03 (95% CI: -0.05, -0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Children in an RCT with rigorous application of national standard of care guidelines experienced a significantly lower risk of hospitalization than children participating in a cohort study that did not alter clinical care. Future research is needed to further investigate outcome disparities when real-world results fail to mirror those achieved in a clinical trial. Trial registration The Mpepu Trial was funded by the U.S. National Institutes of Health (No. NCT01229761) and the Maikaelelo Study was funded primarily by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (32AI007433-21).

Mapping of HIV-1C Transmission Networks Reveals Extensive Spread of Viral Lineages Across Villages in Botswana Treatment-as-Prevention Trial.

BACKGROUND: Phylogenetic mapping of HIV-1 lineages circulating across defined geographical locations is promising for better understanding HIV transmission networks to design optimal prevention interventions. METHODS: We obtained near full-length HIV-1 genome sequences from people living with HIV (PLWH), including participants on antiretroviral treatment in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, conducted in 30 Botswana communities in 2013-2018. Phylogenetic relationships among viral sequences were estimated by maximum likelihood. RESULTS: We obtained 6078 near full-length HIV-1C genome sequences from 6075 PLWH. We identified 984 phylogenetically distinct HIV-1 lineages (molecular HIV clusters) circulating in Botswana by mid-2018, with 2-27 members per cluster. Of these, dyads accounted for 62%, approximately 32% (n = 316) were found in single communities, and 68% (n = 668) were spread across multiple communities. Men in clusters were approximately 3 years older than women (median age 42 years, vs 39 years; P < .0001). In 65% of clusters, men were older than women, while in 35% of clusters women were older than men. The majority of identified viral lineages were spread across multiple communities. CONCLUSIONS: A large number of circulating phylogenetically distinct HIV-1C lineages (molecular HIV clusters) suggests highly diversified HIV transmission networks across Botswana communities by 2018.

Barriers and facilitators to linkage to care and ART initiation in the setting of high ART coverage in Botswana.

We conducted a qualitative study using focus groups and in-depth interviews to explore barriers to and facilitators of linkage-to-care and antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation in Botswana. Participants were selected from communities receiving interventions through the Ya Tsie Study. Fifteen healthcare providers and 49 HIV-positive individuals participated. HIV-positive participants identified barriers including stigma, discrimination and overcrowded clinics, and negative staff attitudes; personal factors, such as a lack of acceptance of one's HIV status, non-disclosure, and gender differences; along with lack of social/family support, and certain religious beliefs. Healthcare providers cited delayed test results, poverty, and transport difficulties as additional barriers. Major facilitators were support from healthcare providers, including home visits, social support, and knowing the benefits of ART. Participants were highly supportive of universal ART as a personal health measure. Our results highlighted a persistent structural health facility barrier: HIV-positive patients expressed strong discontent with HIV care/treatment being delivered differently than routine healthcare, feeling inconvenienced and stigmatized by separately designated locations and days of service. This barrier was particularly problematic for highly mobile persons. Addressing this structural barrier, which persists even in the context of high ART uptake, could bring gains in willingness to initiate ART and improved adherence in Botswana and elsewhere.

Methodological Challenges When Studying Distance to Care as an Exposure in Health Research.

Distance to care is a common exposure and proposed instrumental variable in health research, but it is vulnerable to violations of fundamental identifiability conditions for causal inference. We used data collected from the Botswana Birth Outcomes Surveillance study between 2014 and 2016 to outline 4 challenges and potential biases when using distance to care as an exposure and as a proposed instrument: selection bias, unmeasured confounding, lack of sufficiently well-defined interventions, and measurement error. We describe how these issues can arise, and we propose sensitivity analyses for estimating the degree of bias.

Multilevel Factors Affecting Time to Cancer Diagnosis and Care Quality in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence is increasing in Africa, and the majority of patients are diagnosed with advanced disease, limiting treatment options and survival. We sought to understand care patterns and factors contributing to delayed diagnosis and treatment initiation among patients with cancer in Botswana. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We recruited 20 patients who were enrolled in a prospective cancer cohort in Botswana to a qualitative substudy that explored cancer care pathways and factors affecting cancer care access and quality. We conducted an in-depth interview with each participant between October 2014 and January 2015, using a a structured interview guide with questions about initial cancer symptoms, previous consultations, diagnosis, and care pathways. Medical records were used to confirm dates or treatment details when needed. RESULTS: Individual and interpersonal factors such as cancer awareness and social support facilitated care-seeking behaviors. However, patients experienced multiple delays in diagnosis and treatment because of provider and health system barriers. Health system factors, such as misdiagnosis, understaffed facilities, poor referral communication and scheduling, and inadequate laboratory reporting systems, affected access to and quality of cancer care. CONCLUSION: These findings highlight the need for interventions at the patient, provider, and health system levels to improve cancer care quality and outcomes in Botswana. Results also suggest that widespread cancer education has potential to promote early diagnosis through family and community networks. Identified barriers and facilitators suggest that interventions to improve community education and access to diagnostic technologies could help improve cancer outcomes in this setting. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The majority (54%) of patients with cancer in Botswana present with advanced-stage cancer despite universal access to free health care, limiting the options for treatment and decreasing the likelihood of positive treatment outcomes. To reduce time from symptom onset to cancer treatment initiation, causes of delay in cancer care trajectories must be identified. The narratives of the patients interviewed for this study give insight into psychosocial factors, outlooks on disease, lower-level provider delays, and health system barriers that contribute to substantial delays for patients with cancer in Botswana. Identification of problems and barriers is essential for development of effective interventions to mitigate these factors, in order to improve cancer outcomes in this population.

HIV Exposure and Formula Feeding Predict Under-2 Mortality in HIV-Uninfected Children, Botswana.

OBJECTIVES: To prospectively assess rates and detailed predictors of morbidity and mortality among HIV-exposed uninfected children and HIV-unexposed children in Botswana in a more recent era. STUDY DESIGN: We enrolled HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected mothers and their children in the prospective observational Tshipidi study at 2 sites (1 city and 1 village) in Botswana from May 2010-July 2012. Live-born children and their mothers were followed for 24 months postpartum. Detailed sociodemographic data, health, and psychosocial characteristics were collected at baseline and prospectively, and health outcomes ascertained. Mothers chose infant feeding method with counselling. RESULTS: A total of 893 live-born HIV-uninfected children (436 HIV-exposed uninfected, 457 HIV-unexposed) were followed. HIV-infected mothers had a median CD4 count of 410 cells/mm3, 32% took 3-drug antiretroviral treatment during pregnancy, 67% took only zidovudine, and 1% took <2 weeks of any antiretrovirals antepartum. Twenty four-month vital status was available for 888 (99.4%) children. HIV-exposed uninfected children had a significantly higher risk of death compared with children of HIV-uninfected mothers (5.0% vs 1.8%) (adjusted hazard ratio 3.27, 95% CI 1.44-7.40). High collinearity between maternal HIV status and child feeding method precluded analysis of these factors as independent predictors of mortality. Preterm birth, low birth weight, and congenital anomaly were also associated with mortality (in separate analyses), but maternal socioeconomic factors, depression, substance use, and social support were not significant predictors. CONCLUSIONS: The strongest predictors of 24-month mortality among children in Botswana were HIV exposure and formula feeding, although the relative contribution of these factors to child health could not be separated.

Pilot of an International Collaboration to Build Capacity to Provide Gynecologic Oncology Surgery in Botswana.

OBJECTIVES: Gynecologic malignancies are the leading cause of cancer death among women in Botswana. Twenty-five percent of cervical cancers present at a stage that could be surgically cured; however, there are no gynecologic oncologists to provide radical surgeries. A sustainable model for delivery of advanced surgery is essential to advance treatment for gynecologic malignancies. METHODS/MATERIALS: A model was developed to provide gynecologic oncology surgery in Botswana, delivered by US-based gynecologic oncologists in four 2-week blocks per year. A pilot gynecologic oncology campaign was planned at a district hospital. Eligible patients were identified through the gynecologic oncology multidisciplinary clinic at the regional referral hospital, where gynecologic oncology treatment planning is provided. Local providers were invited to participate to build local surgical capacity. RESULTS: One US-based gynecologic oncologist, 2 gynecologists, and 2 surgeons working in Botswana participated in the pilot campaign. Sixteen operations were performed over 7 days. Indications included cervical cancer (4), ovarian cancer (3), vulvar cancer (1), complex atypical hyperplasia (1), pre-invasive cervical disease (2), and benign disease (3), as well as 2 obstetric emergencies. The only gynecologic oncology complication was a case of bleeding requiring transfusion and postoperative intensive care unit admission. Follow-up care was coordinated through the gynecologic oncology multidisciplinary clinic. CONCLUSIONS: Periodic gynecologic oncology campaigns in settings otherwise lacking local capacity to perform advanced surgery are a feasible model to create access and build local capacity. Strong local collaboration is essential. Future strategies to increase impact include recruitment of more gynecologic oncologists to increase service and training availability.

Predictors of Timely Access of Oncology Services and Advanced-Stage Cancer in an HIV-Endemic Setting.

BACKGROUND: Three-quarters of cancer deaths occur in resource-limited countries, and delayed presentation contributes to poor outcome. In Botswana, where more than half of cancers arise in HIV-infected individuals, we sought to explore predictors of timely oncology care and evaluate the hypothesis that engagement in longitudinal HIV care improves access. METHODS: Consenting patients presenting for oncology care from October 2010 to September 2014 were interviewed and their records were reviewed. Cox and logistic models were used to examine the effect of HIV and other predictors on time to oncology care and presentation with advanced cancer (stage III or IV). RESULTS: Of the 1,146 patients analyzed, 584 (51%) had HIV and 615 (54%) had advanced cancer. The initial clinic visit occurred a mean of 144 days (median 29, interquartile range 0-185) after symptom onset, but subsequent mean time to oncology care was 406 days (median 160, interquartile range 59-653). HIV status was not significantly associated with time to oncology care (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.79-1.06). However, patients who reported using traditional medicine/healers engaged in oncology care significantly faster (aHR 1.23, 95% CI 1.09-1.40) and those with advanced cancer entered care earlier (aHR 1.48, 95% CI 1.30-1.70). Factors significantly associated with advanced cancer included income <$50 per month (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.35, 95% CI 1.05-1.75), male sex (aOR 1.45, 95% CI 1.12-1.87), and pain as the presenting symptom (aOR 1.39, 95% CI 1.03-1.88). CONCLUSION: Longitudinal HIV care did not reduce the substantial delay to cancer treatment. Research focused on reducing health system delay through coordination and navigation is needed. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The majority (54%) of patients in this large cohort from Botswana presented with advanced-stage cancer despite universal access to free health care. Median time from first symptom to specialized oncology care was 13 months. For HIV-infected patients (51% of total), regular longitudinal contact with the health system, through quarterly doctor visits for HIV management, was not successful in providing faster linkages into oncology care. However, patients who used traditional medicine/healers engaged in cancer care faster, indicating potential for leveraging traditional healers as partners in early cancer detection. New strategies are urgently needed to facilitate diagnosis and timely treatment of cancer in low- and middle-income countries.

HIV-exposed children account for more than half of 24-month mortality in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: The contribution of HIV-exposure to childhood mortality in a setting with widespread antiretroviral treatment (ART) availability has not been determined. METHODS: From January 2012 to March 2013, mothers were enrolled within 48 h of delivery at 5 government postpartum wards in Botswana. Participants were followed by phone 1-3 monthly for 24 months. Risk factors for 24-month survival were assessed by Cox proportional hazards modeling. RESULTS: Three thousand mothers (1499 HIV-infected) and their 3033 children (1515 HIV-exposed) were enrolled. During pregnancy 58 % received three-drug ART, 23 % received zidovudine alone, 11 % received no antiretrovirals (8 % unknown); 2.1 % of children were HIV-infected by 24 months. Vital status at 24 months was known for 3018 (99.5 %) children; 106 (3.5 %) died including 12 (38 %) HIV-infected, 70 (4.7 %) HIV-exposed uninfected, and 24 (1.6 %) HIV-unexposed. Risk factors for mortality were child HIV-infection (aHR 22.6, 95 % CI 10.7, 47.5 %), child HIV-exposure (aHR 2.7, 95 % CI 1.7, 4.5) and maternal death (aHR 8.9, 95 % CI 2.1, 37.1). Replacement feeding predicted mortality when modeled separately from HIV-exposure (aHR 2.3, 95 % CI 1.5, 3.6), but colinearity with HIV-exposure status precluded investigation of its independent effect. Applied at the population level (26 % maternal HIV prevalence), an estimated 52 % of child mortality occurs among HIV-exposed or HIV-infected children. CONCLUSIONS: In a programmatic setting with high maternal HIV prevalence and widespread maternal and child ART availability, HIV-exposed and HIV-infected children still account for most deaths at 24 months. Lack of breastfeeding was a likely contributor to excess mortality among HIV-exposed children.