Bayesian spatial modelling of localised SARS-CoV-2 transmission through mobility networks across England.

In the early phases of growth, resurgent epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 incidence have been characterised by localised outbreaks. Therefore, understanding the geographic dispersion of emerging variants at the start of an outbreak is key for situational public health awareness. Using telecoms data, we derived mobility networks describing the movement patterns between local authorities in England, which we have used to inform the spatial structure of a Bayesian BYM2 model. Surge testing interventions can result in spatio-temporal sampling bias, and we account for this by extending the BYM2 model to include a random effect for each timepoint in a given area. Simulated-scenario modelling and real-world analyses of each variant that became dominant in England were conducted using our BYM2 model at local authority level in England. Simulated datasets were created using a stochastic metapopulation model, with the transmission rates between different areas parameterised using telecoms mobility data. Different scenarios were constructed to reproduce real-world spatial dispersion patterns that could prove challenging to inference, and we used these scenarios to understand the performance characteristics of the BYM2 model. The model performed better than unadjusted test positivity in all the simulation-scenarios, and in particular when sample sizes were small, or data was missing for geographical areas. Through the analyses of emerging variant transmission across England, we found a reduction in the early growth phase geographic clustering of later dominant variants as England became more interconnected from early 2022 and public health interventions were reduced. We have also shown the recent increased geographic spread and dominance of variants with similar mutations in the receptor binding domain, which may be indicative of convergent evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Bayesian hierarchical spatial models: Implementing the Besag York Mollié model in stan.

This report presents a new implementation of the Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model in Stan, a probabilistic programming platform which does full Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). We review the spatial auto-correlation models used for areal data and disease risk mapping, and describe the corresponding Stan implementations. We also present a case study using Stan to fit a BYM model for motor vehicle crashes injuring school-age pedestrians in New York City from 2005 to 2014 localized to census tracts. Stan efficiently fit our multivariable BYM model having a large number of observations (n=2095 census tracts) with small outcome counts < 10 in the majority of tracts. Our findings reinforced that neighborhood income and social fragmentation are significant correlates of school-age pedestrian injuries. We also observed that nationally-available census tract estimates of commuting methods may serve as a useful indicator of underlying pedestrian densities.

Integrative analysis of the Caenorhabditis elegans genome by the modENCODE project.

We systematically generated large-scale data sets to improve genome annotation for the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, a key model organism. These data sets include transcriptome profiling across a developmental time course, genome-wide identification of transcription factor-binding sites, and maps of chromatin organization. From this, we created more complete and accurate gene models, including alternative splice forms and candidate noncoding RNAs. We constructed hierarchical networks of transcription factor-binding and microRNA interactions and discovered chromosomal locations bound by an unusually large number of transcription factors. Different patterns of chromatin composition and histone modification were revealed between chromosome arms and centers, with similarly prominent differences between autosomes and the X chromosome. Integrating data types, we built statistical models relating chromatin, transcription factor binding, and gene expression. Overall, our analyses ascribed putative functions to most of the conserved genome.

Genomic surveys by methylation-sensitive SNP analysis identify sequence-dependent allele-specific DNA methylation.

Allele-specific DNA methylation (ASM) is a hallmark of imprinted genes, but ASM in the larger nonimprinted fraction of the genome is less well characterized. Using methylation-sensitive SNP analysis (MSNP), we surveyed the human genome at 50K and 250K resolution, identifying ASM as recurrent genotype call conversions from heterozygosity to homozygosity when genomic DNAs were predigested with the methylation-sensitive restriction enzyme HpaII. Using independent assays, we confirmed ASM at 16 SNP-tagged loci distributed across various chromosomes. At 12 of these loci (75%), the ASM tracked strongly with the sequence of adjacent SNPs. Further analysis showed allele-specific mRNA expression at two loci from this methylation-based screen--the vanin and CYP2A6-CYP2A7 gene clusters--both implicated in traits of medical importance. This recurrent phenomenon of sequence-dependent ASM has practical implications for mapping and interpreting associations of noncoding SNPs and haplotypes with human phenotypes.

GeneWays: a system for extracting, analyzing, visualizing, and integrating molecular pathway data.

The immense growth in the volume of research literature and experimental data in the field of molecular biology calls for efficient automatic methods to capture and store information. In recent years, several groups have worked on specific problems in this area, such as automated selection of articles pertinent to molecular biology, or automated extraction of information using natural-language processing, information visualization, and generation of specialized knowledge bases for molecular biology. GeneWays is an integrated system that combines several such subtasks. It analyzes interactions between molecular substances, drawing on multiple sources of information to infer a consensus view of molecular networks. GeneWays is designed as an open platform, allowing researchers to query, review, and critique stored information.